长距离输水工程防洪风险与投资优化问题的研究
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摘要
长距离输水工程沿途往往要跨越众多河系,极易受到洪水的冲击,这就需要对其综合水毁风险给出定量的评估。本文以可靠度理论为基础,根据渠道所经过的各条河流的水文、地质、地形、工程结构的随机特征,给出了引水工程交叉建筑物的综合水毁风险计算方法。并以南水北调中线工程河北省段为例,对该方法进行了应用。本文的创新点主要有五个方面:
1、本文以可靠度理论为基础,根据渠道所经过的各条河流的水文、地质、地形、工程结构的随机特征,给出了引水工程交叉建筑物的综合水毁风险计算方法。
2、本文探讨了二维Gumbel分布模型,给出了其经验频率和理论频率的计算方法,并建立了其联合重现期和条件重现期的分布模型。它可以给出不同程度暴雨和径流遭遇组合的频率,也可以在一定的降雨量条件下给出不同径流量的发生频率,或一定的径流量条件下给出不同降雨量的发生频率。这对于解决与风险有关的多因素影响下的水文计算问题是非常有用的。
3、现有的水毁风险评价方法只能从水文要素的角度考察单个交叉建筑物的水毁风险。本文提出通过计算Ditlevsen界限的方法,将求解n维分布函数的难题转化为求解二维分布函数,并据此给出了串联系统引水工程交叉建筑物的综合水毁风险,解决了多维风险组合计算的这一难题。
4、传统的水工建筑物防洪设计标准不是真正意义上的建筑物防洪风险。这是因为现有的洪水频率计算方法是以年最大流量进行独立抽样。事实上河流一年内的洪水过程有时不止一次,很多情况下某一年的第二大洪峰流量比另一年的第一大洪峰流量还大。以年最大流量进行独立抽样作风险评价,忽略了年内其他的洪水信息。本文基于时变动力可靠度原理,将洪水作为随机过程考察,充分利用已有的洪水信息,给出了真正意义上的水工建筑物在设计有效期内的防洪风险估算模型。
5、南水北调中线工程是长距离串联系统,工程的防洪风险较大,投资规模巨大。如何在结构可靠度与工程造价这对矛盾体中寻求最佳组合,往往是工程规划关注的焦点。本文将以可靠度理论为基础,通过考虑随机因素的随机特征,建立长距离输水工程交叉建筑物的综合可靠度估算方法并通过优化算法探讨了南水北调中线工程河北段12座渡槽形成的串联系统的整体可靠度与工程造价的最优分配问题。
It is very often that long distance water transfer engineering was destroyed by flood due to too many rivers to cross. So synthese flood risk analysis is needed. According to stochastic characteristics of hydrology, geology, geograghy and structure, we present synthese flood risk assessment method of crossing structures along water transfering engineering based on realibility analysis theory. The method was applied in South to North Water Transfer Project Middle Route in Hebei province. Results show that the flood risk of the system is between 4.6% to 1.5%,the average risk is about 3.1%. The break points in this thesis are following:
1. According to stochastic characteristics of hydrology, geology, geograghy and structure, synthese flood risk assessment method of crossing structures along South to North Water Transfer Projcet Middle Route was established based on realibility analysis theory.
2. This paper proposes the use of the two-dimension Gumbel mixed model, the bivariate extreme value distribution model with Gumbel marginals,to analyze the joint probability distribution of two hydrology stochastic variables. Based on the marginal distributions of these random variables, the joint distributions, the conditional probability functions, and the associated return periods are derived. It is helpful to solve the multi-variations hydrology problem.
3. Traditional flood risk assessment method only appropriate to one river from hydrology view. This thesis establishing risk assessment model of long distance series system with Ditlevsen boundary and two dimensions Gumbel mixed model to avoid the nightmare of establishment of n-dimenssions joint probability distribution. The flood risk of South to North Water Transfer Project Middle Route in Hebei province is calculated as an example.
4. Traditional flood risk assessment method is not real flood risk assessment. It is because traditional flood risk assessment method is based on annual maximum flow sample. But there is not only one flood process in one year. So it is often that second maximum flow in one year is larger than that of other year. Traditional method neglect many other hydrology information. The real flood risk assessment model is established on the base of time and spatial varying load reliability principle to make full ues of flood information.
5. Crossing Structure Reliability of Water Transfer Project is determined by stochastic characteristics of hydrology, material, geology and structure. All of these aspects impact cost of engineering indirectly or directly. How to resolve the dilemma between cost and reliability is focus in engineering planning phase. This thesis present relation between cost and reliability of Water Transfer Project and optimize the engineering cost under the restriction of engineering reliability.
1、本文以可靠度理论为基础,根据渠道所经过的各条河流的水文、地质、地形、工程结构的随机特征,给出了引水工程交叉建筑物的综合水毁风险计算方法。
2、本文探讨了二维Gumbel分布模型,给出了其经验频率和理论频率的计算方法,并建立了其联合重现期和条件重现期的分布模型。它可以给出不同程度暴雨和径流遭遇组合的频率,也可以在一定的降雨量条件下给出不同径流量的发生频率,或一定的径流量条件下给出不同降雨量的发生频率。这对于解决与风险有关的多因素影响下的水文计算问题是非常有用的。
3、现有的水毁风险评价方法只能从水文要素的角度考察单个交叉建筑物的水毁风险。本文提出通过计算Ditlevsen界限的方法,将求解n维分布函数的难题转化为求解二维分布函数,并据此给出了串联系统引水工程交叉建筑物的综合水毁风险,解决了多维风险组合计算的这一难题。
4、传统的水工建筑物防洪设计标准不是真正意义上的建筑物防洪风险。这是因为现有的洪水频率计算方法是以年最大流量进行独立抽样。事实上河流一年内的洪水过程有时不止一次,很多情况下某一年的第二大洪峰流量比另一年的第一大洪峰流量还大。以年最大流量进行独立抽样作风险评价,忽略了年内其他的洪水信息。本文基于时变动力可靠度原理,将洪水作为随机过程考察,充分利用已有的洪水信息,给出了真正意义上的水工建筑物在设计有效期内的防洪风险估算模型。
5、南水北调中线工程是长距离串联系统,工程的防洪风险较大,投资规模巨大。如何在结构可靠度与工程造价这对矛盾体中寻求最佳组合,往往是工程规划关注的焦点。本文将以可靠度理论为基础,通过考虑随机因素的随机特征,建立长距离输水工程交叉建筑物的综合可靠度估算方法并通过优化算法探讨了南水北调中线工程河北段12座渡槽形成的串联系统的整体可靠度与工程造价的最优分配问题。
It is very often that long distance water transfer engineering was destroyed by flood due to too many rivers to cross. So synthese flood risk analysis is needed. According to stochastic characteristics of hydrology, geology, geograghy and structure, we present synthese flood risk assessment method of crossing structures along water transfering engineering based on realibility analysis theory. The method was applied in South to North Water Transfer Project Middle Route in Hebei province. Results show that the flood risk of the system is between 4.6% to 1.5%,the average risk is about 3.1%. The break points in this thesis are following:
1. According to stochastic characteristics of hydrology, geology, geograghy and structure, synthese flood risk assessment method of crossing structures along South to North Water Transfer Projcet Middle Route was established based on realibility analysis theory.
2. This paper proposes the use of the two-dimension Gumbel mixed model, the bivariate extreme value distribution model with Gumbel marginals,to analyze the joint probability distribution of two hydrology stochastic variables. Based on the marginal distributions of these random variables, the joint distributions, the conditional probability functions, and the associated return periods are derived. It is helpful to solve the multi-variations hydrology problem.
3. Traditional flood risk assessment method only appropriate to one river from hydrology view. This thesis establishing risk assessment model of long distance series system with Ditlevsen boundary and two dimensions Gumbel mixed model to avoid the nightmare of establishment of n-dimenssions joint probability distribution. The flood risk of South to North Water Transfer Project Middle Route in Hebei province is calculated as an example.
4. Traditional flood risk assessment method is not real flood risk assessment. It is because traditional flood risk assessment method is based on annual maximum flow sample. But there is not only one flood process in one year. So it is often that second maximum flow in one year is larger than that of other year. Traditional method neglect many other hydrology information. The real flood risk assessment model is established on the base of time and spatial varying load reliability principle to make full ues of flood information.
5. Crossing Structure Reliability of Water Transfer Project is determined by stochastic characteristics of hydrology, material, geology and structure. All of these aspects impact cost of engineering indirectly or directly. How to resolve the dilemma between cost and reliability is focus in engineering planning phase. This thesis present relation between cost and reliability of Water Transfer Project and optimize the engineering cost under the restriction of engineering reliability.
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