冷战转型时期美国核不扩散政策（1969-1976）
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摘要
上个世纪六十年代末到七十年代中期不仅是国际冷战格局的“转型时期”，也是美国全球冷战战略的一个转折点，同时还是国际核不扩散机制与美国核不扩散政策发展与完善的关键时期。本文主要利用最近几年解密的美国政府官方文献，通过美国对台湾地区、以色列和印度核不扩散政策的案例分析，探讨冷战转型时期（1969－1976）美国核不扩散政策。
本文认为，核扩散是核不扩散政策的根源和动力，核不扩散政策是阻止国际社会中核扩散活动的一种因应之道，二者在实践中经历了一个互相塑造和互为影响的发展过程。美国的核不扩散政策是其与潜在核扩散对象之间的一种复杂博弈。这一政策不仅要受到美国自身的情报认知、国内政治、决策者和双边关系等因素的影响，而且还与国际冷战格局、扩散者自身发展核武器的能力和意图等因素有关。因此，在美国与其他核扩散对象之间进行博弈的过程中，它并不总是掌握主动权的一方，也未必总是最后的赢家。
在战后美国核不扩散实践中，理想主义和现实主义两种思想的影响从未消失。在尼克松和基辛格所追求的“冷战转型”过程中，现实主义国际关系思想对美国核不扩散实践的影响尤为显著。在此期间，美国核不扩散政策从一个传统的外交政策问题进一步扩展到了安全战略领域，从而赋予了核不扩散政策以全新的涵义。在理论上，美国并不希望除它以外的其他任何国家获得核武器，以便维护其在核领域的垄断性霸权，但事实证明这不过是一厢情愿的幻想。美国的核不扩散政策旨在阻止其他国家发展核武器，但这一目标和实现这种目标的能力与手段之间往往存在“落差”。在面临核扩散现实与因阻止核扩散而导致的更大战略损失之间，美国往往会采取典型的“实用主义”和“机会主义”态度。比如在承认核扩散事实的基础上，尽力化解因核扩散造成的负面效应，乃至主动采取措施修补它与扩散国之间的关系。这与其说是一种“双重标准”政策，倒不如说它是一种典型的“实用主义”或“机会主义”政策。因为它更多地体现为核不扩散政策的一种结果，而非政策选择本身。
本文共分为七个组成部分：导论部分主要介绍本文的研究意义、选题价值，以及研究述评和分析框架等内容；第一章主要介绍与核不扩散问题有关的一些理论流派及其主要观点，同时提出本文关于美国核不扩散政策的研究变量和理论假设；第二章主要介绍战后美国核不扩散政策实践，以及冷战转型对美国核不扩散政策的涵义；第三、四、五章是本文的案例分析部分，主要通过美国对台湾地区、以色列和印度的核不扩散政策实践来进行深度案例分析，探讨这一时期美国在核不扩散问题上与有关对象国之间的互动，以及美国针对台湾地区、以色列和印度核不扩散政策的特征及其影响要素；最后是本文的结论部分，主要归纳三个案例研究的比较结果和研究推论，并得出一些较有普遍意义的启示和结论。
The international Cold War structure was transformed from the late1960s to themiddle of1970s, during which time the U.S. global strategy was at a turning point andthe international nuclear non-proliferation regime was in the critical period ofdevelopment. This dissertation will examine the nuclear non-proliferation policy of theUnited States during this period, and take Taiwan, Israel and India as case studies basedon the newly declassified official archives of the U.S. government.
The argument of this dissertation is that the nuclear proliferation is the origin andmotivation of the nuclear non-proliferation policy, and the latter is a natural response tothe former. It is a process of mutual shaping and mutual influencing. The U.S. nuclearnon-proliferation policy, therefore, is the result of a complicated game between theUnited States and the potential nuclear proliferator, which is influenced not only by itsown nuclear intelligence and perception, domestic politics, decision making process andbilateral relations, but also by the international Cold War structure and the proliferator’snuclear capability and intentions. Thus, in the process of their games, the United States isnot always the advantaged and the winner.
Two schools of thought in international politics, idealism and realism, havecontinued to influence the U.S. nuclear non-proliferation policy since the end of WorldWar II. Among other things, the impact of realism school reached its peak when RichardNixon and Henry Kissinger made their grand strategy to transform the Cold War. Duringthis period, the United States nuclear non-proliferation policy extended itself from atraditional foreign policy issue to the national security strategy field, redefining thenuclear non-proliferation policy per se to some extent. Ideally, the United States did notwant any other country of the international community except itself to possess nuclearweapons to keep its nuclear hegemony all the time, but this is impossible in reality. Thepurpose of the U.S. nuclear non-proliferation policy is to prevent other states to developtheir own nuclear weapons, but there is always a gap between this purpose and its policytool. In such a case, the U.S. administration often takes pragmatism or opportunismattitude. Accepting the reality of nuclear proliferation, it will try to minimize the negative effects by even trying to do something to repair the relations with the nuclear proliferator.Policy as such should not be taken as a reflection of double standard, and it looks morelike a policy result rather than a policy choice.
This dissertation includes seven parts: the Foreword will present the value of thestudy, the research methods and the academic reviews; Chapter One will examine someWestern theories of international politics and their approaches to the subject matter, andthen set up my own research variables and hypothesis; Chapter Two will review thehistory of the U.S. nuclear non-proliferation policy practice before1969, and define theCold War Transition and its implication to non-proliferation activities. Chapter Three,Chapter Four and Chapter Five are case studies of U.S. nuclear non-proliferation policytoward Taiwan, Israel and India. In each case, the interactions between the United Statesand the potential nuclear proliferator will be explored, including the motives andcharacteristics of their policies. The Last Part is the conclusion.
本文认为，核扩散是核不扩散政策的根源和动力，核不扩散政策是阻止国际社会中核扩散活动的一种因应之道，二者在实践中经历了一个互相塑造和互为影响的发展过程。美国的核不扩散政策是其与潜在核扩散对象之间的一种复杂博弈。这一政策不仅要受到美国自身的情报认知、国内政治、决策者和双边关系等因素的影响，而且还与国际冷战格局、扩散者自身发展核武器的能力和意图等因素有关。因此，在美国与其他核扩散对象之间进行博弈的过程中，它并不总是掌握主动权的一方，也未必总是最后的赢家。
在战后美国核不扩散实践中，理想主义和现实主义两种思想的影响从未消失。在尼克松和基辛格所追求的“冷战转型”过程中，现实主义国际关系思想对美国核不扩散实践的影响尤为显著。在此期间，美国核不扩散政策从一个传统的外交政策问题进一步扩展到了安全战略领域，从而赋予了核不扩散政策以全新的涵义。在理论上，美国并不希望除它以外的其他任何国家获得核武器，以便维护其在核领域的垄断性霸权，但事实证明这不过是一厢情愿的幻想。美国的核不扩散政策旨在阻止其他国家发展核武器，但这一目标和实现这种目标的能力与手段之间往往存在“落差”。在面临核扩散现实与因阻止核扩散而导致的更大战略损失之间，美国往往会采取典型的“实用主义”和“机会主义”态度。比如在承认核扩散事实的基础上，尽力化解因核扩散造成的负面效应，乃至主动采取措施修补它与扩散国之间的关系。这与其说是一种“双重标准”政策，倒不如说它是一种典型的“实用主义”或“机会主义”政策。因为它更多地体现为核不扩散政策的一种结果，而非政策选择本身。
本文共分为七个组成部分：导论部分主要介绍本文的研究意义、选题价值，以及研究述评和分析框架等内容；第一章主要介绍与核不扩散问题有关的一些理论流派及其主要观点，同时提出本文关于美国核不扩散政策的研究变量和理论假设；第二章主要介绍战后美国核不扩散政策实践，以及冷战转型对美国核不扩散政策的涵义；第三、四、五章是本文的案例分析部分，主要通过美国对台湾地区、以色列和印度的核不扩散政策实践来进行深度案例分析，探讨这一时期美国在核不扩散问题上与有关对象国之间的互动，以及美国针对台湾地区、以色列和印度核不扩散政策的特征及其影响要素；最后是本文的结论部分，主要归纳三个案例研究的比较结果和研究推论，并得出一些较有普遍意义的启示和结论。
The international Cold War structure was transformed from the late1960s to themiddle of1970s, during which time the U.S. global strategy was at a turning point andthe international nuclear non-proliferation regime was in the critical period ofdevelopment. This dissertation will examine the nuclear non-proliferation policy of theUnited States during this period, and take Taiwan, Israel and India as case studies basedon the newly declassified official archives of the U.S. government.
The argument of this dissertation is that the nuclear proliferation is the origin andmotivation of the nuclear non-proliferation policy, and the latter is a natural response tothe former. It is a process of mutual shaping and mutual influencing. The U.S. nuclearnon-proliferation policy, therefore, is the result of a complicated game between theUnited States and the potential nuclear proliferator, which is influenced not only by itsown nuclear intelligence and perception, domestic politics, decision making process andbilateral relations, but also by the international Cold War structure and the proliferator’snuclear capability and intentions. Thus, in the process of their games, the United States isnot always the advantaged and the winner.
Two schools of thought in international politics, idealism and realism, havecontinued to influence the U.S. nuclear non-proliferation policy since the end of WorldWar II. Among other things, the impact of realism school reached its peak when RichardNixon and Henry Kissinger made their grand strategy to transform the Cold War. Duringthis period, the United States nuclear non-proliferation policy extended itself from atraditional foreign policy issue to the national security strategy field, redefining thenuclear non-proliferation policy per se to some extent. Ideally, the United States did notwant any other country of the international community except itself to possess nuclearweapons to keep its nuclear hegemony all the time, but this is impossible in reality. Thepurpose of the U.S. nuclear non-proliferation policy is to prevent other states to developtheir own nuclear weapons, but there is always a gap between this purpose and its policytool. In such a case, the U.S. administration often takes pragmatism or opportunismattitude. Accepting the reality of nuclear proliferation, it will try to minimize the negative effects by even trying to do something to repair the relations with the nuclear proliferator.Policy as such should not be taken as a reflection of double standard, and it looks morelike a policy result rather than a policy choice.
This dissertation includes seven parts: the Foreword will present the value of thestudy, the research methods and the academic reviews; Chapter One will examine someWestern theories of international politics and their approaches to the subject matter, andthen set up my own research variables and hypothesis; Chapter Two will review thehistory of the U.S. nuclear non-proliferation policy practice before1969, and define theCold War Transition and its implication to non-proliferation activities. Chapter Three,Chapter Four and Chapter Five are case studies of U.S. nuclear non-proliferation policytoward Taiwan, Israel and India. In each case, the interactions between the United Statesand the potential nuclear proliferator will be explored, including the motives andcharacteristics of their policies. The Last Part is the conclusion.
引文
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3Joseph S. Nye,“Sustaining Non-proliferation in the1980s”, James A. Schear edited, Nuclear Weapons Proliferationand Nuclear Risk, Gower,1984, p.112.
4Joseph S. Nye,“The U.S. Soviet Stakes in Nuclear Nonproliferation”, Political Science, Vol.15, No.1(Winter，1982).
5Allan S. Krass, The United States and Arms Control: The Challenge of Leadership, New York and London, Praeger,1997.
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8Michael Nacht,“The Future Unlike the Past: Nuclear Proliferation and American Security Policy”, InternationalOrganization, Vol.35, No.1(Winter,1971).
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10Rodney W. Jones,“Small Nuclear Forces and U.S. Security Policy”, edited by Rodney W. Jones, Small NuclearForces and U.S. Security Policy: Threats and Potential Conflicts in the Middle East and South Asia, Lexington andToronto, Lexington Books,1984.
11John J. Mearsheimer,“Imperial by Design”, National Interest, Jan/Feb2011.
12Duncan L. Clarke, Politics of Arms Control: the Role and Effectiveness of the U.S Arms Control andDisarmament Agency, New York and London, Free Press,1979.
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15Frederick Williams,“The United States Congress and Nonproliferation”, International Security, Vol.3, No.2(Autumn,1978).
16George Quester, The Politics of Nuclear Proliferation, Baltimore and London, The John Hopkins University Press,1973, p.25-28.
17Michael J. Brenner, Nuclear Power and Non-Proliferation: The Remaking of U.S. Policy, London, New York andSydney, Cambridge University Press,1981, p.20.
18Joseph S. Nye,“Sustaining Non-proliferation in the1980s”, James A. Schear edited, Nuclear WeaponsProliferation and Nuclear Risk, Gower,1984, p.105-107.
19Avner Cohen and William Burr,“Israel Cross the Threshold”, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May/June2006.
20Michael Karpin, The Bomb in the Basement: How Israel Went Nuclear and What That Means for the World, NewYork, London and Sydney, Simon&Schuster Paperbacks,2006, p.316.
21朱明权：“防止核扩散:美国的出口控制机制及其局限”，载《复旦学报》1993年第4期。
22赵伟明：“美国的核不扩散政策”，载《国际观察》2001年第5期。
23夏立平：“论美国反核扩散战略与防扩散政策”，载《国际问题研究》2008年第1期。
24樊吉社：“防控非国家行为体核扩散:美国的评估与政策”，载《国际政治研究》2007年第3期。
25赵品宇：“浅析美国核不扩散政策的深层悖论———以美印核关系为案例”,《国际论坛》2008年第1期。
26沈丁立：“核扩散与国际安全”，载《世界经济与政治》2008年第2期。
27（法）马克·布洛赫著，张和声等译：《历史学家的技艺》，上海社会科学院1992年版，上海，第66页。
28朱明权：《核扩散：危险与防止》前言，上海科技文献出版社，上海，1995年版。
29《国际条约集（1966－1968）》，商务印书馆，北京，1978年版，第623－624页。
30Office of Technology Assessment, Congress of the United States, Nuclear Proliferation and Safeguards, New York,1977, p.6.
31李彬：《军备控制理论与分析》，国防工业出版社，2006年版，北京，第6页。
32关于“冷战转型”问题的探讨，可参见下文第二章第二节。
33阎学通、孙学峰著：《国际关系研究实用方法》，人民出版社，北京，2001年出版，第18页。
34（加）罗伯特杰克逊、（丹）乔格索伦森著，吴勇、宋德星译：《国际关系学理论与方法》，天津人民出版社，天津，2008年出版，第301页。
35张曙光：“冷战国际史与国际关系理论的链接———构建中国国际关系研究体系的路径探索”，《世界经济与政治》2007年第2期。
36张曙光：“浅谈美国外交文献的利用”，载《美国研究》2006年第4期。
37Zaki Shalom, Israel Nuclear Option: Behind the Scenes Diplomacy between Dimona and Washington, Brightonand Portland, Sussex Academic Press,2005.
38转引自王逸舟著：《西方国际政治学：历史与理论》，上海人民出版社，上海，1998年出版，第53页。
39韩莉著：《新外交，旧世界：伍德罗威尔逊与国际联盟》，同心出版社，北京，2002年出版，第284、290页。
40Jonathan Schell, The Fate of the Earth and The Abolition, Stanford, California, Stanford University Press,2000,p.183-184,223.
41保罗尼采（又译为“保罗尼兹”）曾担任美国国务院政策规划署负责人，是美国国家安全委员会68号文件
（NSC-68）的主要起草人。引自Jonathan Schell, Introduction of The Fate of the Earth and The Abolition, Stanford,California, Stanford University Press,2000, p.11-12.
42乔治舒尔茨曾于1982－1989年担任国务卿；威廉佩里曾于1994－1997年担任国防部长；亨利基辛格曾于1969－1973年担任总统国家安全事务特别助理，1973－1977年担任国务卿；塞姆纳恩曾担任参议院武装力量最高委员会主席。关于基辛格任职期间的核不扩散政策思想，我们将在下文进一步探讨。原文请参见GeorgeP. Shultz, William J. Perry, Henry A. Kissinger and Sam Nunn, A World Free of Nuclear Weapons, Wall Street Journal,January4,2007; George P. Shultz, William J. Perry, Henry A. Kissinger and Sam Nunn, Toward a Nuclear-Free World,Wall Street Journal, January15,2008.
43（美）理查德尼克松著，钟伟云译：《真正的和平》，世界知识出版社，1999年出版，第8页。
44（美）汉斯摩根索著，肯尼斯汤普森改写，李晖、孙芳译：《国家间的政治：为了权力与和平的斗争》，海南出版社，海口，2008年出版，第313页。
45Kenneth N. Waltz,“Structural Realism after the Cold War”, International Security, Vol.25, No.1(Summer,2000).
46（美）肯尼思华尔兹著，信强译：《国际政治理论》，上海人民出版社，上海，2003年出版，第245页。
47Kenneth Waltz,“Is Nuclear Zero the Best Option? Waltz Says No”, National Interest, Sept/Oct2010.
48（美）约翰米尔斯海默著，王义桅、唐小松译：《大国政治的悲剧》，上海人民出版社，上海，2003年出版，第210－211页。
49（美）约翰米尔斯海默著，王义桅、唐小松译：《大国政治的悲剧》，上海人民出版社，上海，2003年出版，164页。
50(美)小约瑟夫·奈著，张小明译：《理解国际冲突：理论与历史》，上海人民出版社，上海，2002年出版，第202页。
51Joseph S. Nye,“Maintaining a Nonproliferation Regime”, George H. Quester edited, Nuclear Proliferation:Breaking the Chain, The University of Wisconsin Press, Wisconsin,1981, p.36.
52Etel Solingen, Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, Princeton, PrincetonUniversity Press,2007, p.30.
53不过，也有学者认为，“建构主义是一种方法（approach），而不是一种理论。”参见(美)小约瑟夫·奈著，张小明译：《理解国际冲突：理论与历史》，上海人民出版社，上海，2002年出版，第11页；或参见朱明权著：《领导世界还是支配世界？冷战后美国国家安全战略》，天津人民出版社，天津，2005年出版，第9页。
54Dana P. Eyre, Mark C. Suchman,“Status, Norms, and the Proliferation of Conventional Weapons: An InstitutionalTheory Approach”, Peter J. Katzenstein edited, The Culture of National Security: Norms and Identity in WorldPolitics, New York, Columbia University Press,1996, p.86－87.
55Maria Rost Rublee, Nonproliferation Norms: Why States Chose Nuclear Restraint? Athens&London, TheUniversity of Georgia Press,2009, p.202.
56Richard Price and Nina Tannenwald,“Norms and Deterrence: The Nuclear and Chemical Weapons Taboos”, Peter J.Katzenstein edited, The Culture of National Security: Norms and Identity in World Politics, New York, ColumbiaUniversity Press,1996, p.142.
57Scott D. Sagan, Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed, New York, London, W. W.Norton&Company,2003, p.41,44.
58前引书，第44－45页。不过，肯尼斯·华尔兹对这一问题的认识也有一个不断微调的过程，他在1981年提出这一观点时将其归结为六方面的原因，1995年在与斯考特·萨甘进行论战时将其归为四个方面的原因，2003年他又进一步将其提炼为上述三方面原因。（参见Kenneth N. Waltz，The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: More MayBe Better, Adelphi Paper171,1981; Scott D. Sagan, Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate,New York, London, W. W. Norton&Company,1995, p.44-45.）
59Scott D. Sagan, Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed, New York, London, W. W.Norton&Company,2003, p.42-43.
60Scott D. Sagan, Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed, New York, London, W. W.Norton&Company,2003, p.50.
61Scott D. Sagan, Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed, New York, London, W. W.Norton&Company,2003, p.47-48.
62Scott D. Sagan, The Limits of Safety: Organizations, Accidents, and Nuclear Weapons, New Jersey, PrincetonUniversity Press,1993, p.264.
63Scott D. Sagan, Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed, New York, London, W. W.Norton&Company,2003, p.184.
64Scott D. Sagan, Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed, New York, London, W. W.Norton&Company,2003, p.84.
65Scott D. Sagan, The Limits of Safety: Organizations, Accidents, and Nuclear Weapons, New Jersey, PrincetonUniversity Press,1993, p.275.
66Bruce D. Berkowitz,“Proliferation, Deterrence, and the Likelihood of Nuclear War”, The Journal of ConflictResolution, Vol.29, No.1, Mar.1985, p.135.
67Matthew Kroenig,“Beyond Optimism and Pessimism: The Differential Effects of Nuclear Proliferation”Managing the Atom Working Paper No.2009-14, Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard University, November2009.
68Barry R. Schneider,“Nuclear Proliferation and Counter-Proliferation: Policy Issues and Debates”, MershonInternational Studies Review, Vol.38, No.2, Oct.,1994, p.211－216.
69David J. Karl,“Proliferation Pessimism and Emerging Nuclear Powers”, International Security, Vol.21, No.3Winter,1996-1997, pp.92.
70Scott D. Sagan, Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed, New York, London, W. W.Norton&Company,2003, p.84-85.
71（美）史蒂文李著，钱皓译：“核扩散与核权利”，载张曙光、胡礼忠主编：《伦理与国际事务新论》，上海
72朱明权著：《领导世界还是支配世界？冷战后美国国家安全战略》，天津人民出版社，天津，2005年出版，第10页。
73Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and William H. Riker,“An Assessment of the Merits of Selective Nuclear Proliferation”,The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.26, No.2, Jun,1982, p.303-304.
74Dennis Menos, The Superpowers and the Nuclear Arms Control: Rhetoric and Reality, New York and London,Praeger,1990.
75Joseph I. Coffey,“Nuclear Guarantees and Nonproliferation”, International Organization, Vol.25, No.3, Autumn,1971.
76Jacques E. C. Hymans, The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation: Identity, Emotions and Foreign Policy,Cambridge, Cambridge University Press,2006, p.219.
77Michael Nacht,“The Future Unlike the Past: Nuclear Proliferation and American Security Policy”, InternationalOrganization, Vol.35, No.1, Winter,1971.
78（美）杰里尔罗赛蒂著，周启鹏等译：《美国对外政策政治学》，世界知识出版社，北京，1997年出版，第266页。
79（法）夏尔－菲利普戴维、路易巴尔塔扎、于斯丹瓦伊斯著，钟震宇译：《美国对外政策：基础、主体与形成》，社会科学文献出版社，北京，2011年出版，第279－290。
80关于“核禁忌”的探讨，可参见Nina Tannenwald,“The Nuclear Taboo: The United States and the Normative Basisof Nuclear Non-Use”, International Organization, Vol.53, No.3, Summer,1999;或T. V. Paul,“Nuclear Taboo and
85Robert F. Goheen,“Problems of Proliferation: U.S. Policy and the Third World”, World Politics, Vol.35, No.2,January,1983, p.215.
86Robert F. Mozley,“The Politics and Technology on Nuclear Proliferation”, Seattle and London, University ofWashington Press,1998, p.241-242.
87Scott D. Sagan, Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed, New York, London, W. W.Norton&Company,2003, p.18-19.
88Scott D. Sagan,“The Causes of Nuclear Proliferation”, Current History, April1997, p.151-152.
89Jacques E. C. Hymans,“Theories of Nuclear Proliferation: The State of the Field”,http://www-bcf.usc.edu/~hymans/Hymans2006Theories.pdf
90Jacques E. C. Hymans,“Theories of Nuclear Proliferation: The State of the Field”,http://www-bcf.usc.edu/~hymans/Hymans2006Theories.pdf
91Tanya Ogilvie-White,“Is There a Theory of Nuclear Proliferation? An Analysis of the Contemporary Debate”, TheNonproliferation Review, Fall1996, p.44.
92参见Benjamin Frankel, Opaque Nuclear Proliferation: Methodological and Policy Implications, London, FrankCass,1991.
93Scott D. Sagan,“The Causes of Nuclear Proliferation”, Current History, April1997, p.156.
94《马克思恩格斯选集》第1卷，第603页。
95（美）麦乔治·邦迪著，褚广友等译：《美国核战略》，世界知识出版社，北京，1991年出版，第152页。
96前引书，第161－162页。
97（美）哈里杜鲁门著，李石译：《杜鲁门回忆录》（上卷），东方出版社，北京，2007年出版，第383页。
98前引书，第379页。
99前引书，第515页。
100前引书，第515－519页。
101前引书，第521－526页。
102国家安全委员会第152/2号文件：“执行秘书致国家安全委员会关于向盟国提供核情报的记录”，附件二：特别委员会关于军备和美国政策的第二份报告，1953年12月4日，载周建明、王成至主编《美国国家安全战略解密文献选编：1945－1972》第二册，社会科学文献出版社，北京，2010年出版，第579页。
103（美）哈里杜鲁门著，李石译：《杜鲁门回忆录》（下卷），东方出版社，北京，2007年出版，第14页。
104国家安全委员会68号文件：“美国国家安全的目标和计划”，1950年4月14日，载周建明、王成至主编《美国国家安全战略解密文献选编：1945－1972》第二册，社会科学文献出版社，北京，2010年出版，第80－84页。
105（美）麦乔治·邦迪著，褚广友等译：《美国核战略》，世界知识出版社，北京，1991年出版，第326页。
106国家安全委员会第146次会议讨论备忘录，1953年5月27日，载周建明、王成至主编《美国国家安全战略解密文献选编：1945－1972》第二册，社会科学文献出版社，北京，2010年出版，第563页。
107Gary T. Gardner, Nuclear Nonproliferation：A Primer, Boulder&London, Lynne Rienner Publishers,1994, p.39.
108国家安全委员会第152/2号文件：“执行秘书致国家安全委员会关于向盟国提供核情报的记录”，附件一：国家安全委员会关于向盟国提供核情报的政策声明，1953年12月4日，载周建明、王成至主编《美国国家安全战略解密文献选编：1945－1972》第二册，社会科学文献出版社，北京，2010年出版，第569－570页。
109同上，第576－591页。
110An address by Dwight D. Eisenhower before the General Assembly of U.N, Atomic Power for Peace, Joseph F.Pilat edited, Atoms for Peace: A Future after Fifty Years? Washington, Woodrow Wilson Center Press, p.244-245.
111（美）德怀特D艾森豪威尔著，樊迪、静海等译：《艾森豪威尔回忆录》（卷二），东方出版社，北京，2007年出版，第327－328页。
112国家安全委员会第210次会议备忘录，1954年8月12日，载周建明、王成至主编《美国国家安全战略解密文献选编：1945－1972》第二册，社会科学文献出版社，北京，2010年出版，第593页。
113国家安全委员会报告：“美国国家安全委员会执行部长对与其他国家在和平利用原子能方面合作的说明”，1954年8月13日，载周建明、王成至主编《美国国家安全战略解密文献选编：1945－1972》第二册，社会科学文献出版社，北京，2010年出版，第599－605页。
114Gary T. Gardner, Nuclear Nonproliferation：A Primer, Boulder&London, Lynne Rienner Publishers,1994, p.38.
115Tariq Rauf and Fiona Simpson,“Atoms for Peace and the Nuclear Fuel Cycle: Is It Time for a MultilateralApproach?” Joseph F. Pilat edited, Atoms for Peace: A Future after Fifty Years? Washington, Woodrow Wilson CenterPress, p.248.
116Paul Boyer:“From Activism to Apathy: The American People and Nuclear Weapons,1963-1980”, The Journal ofAmerican History, Vol.70, No.4, Mar.,1984, p.822-823.
117National Intelligence Estimate, NIE4-3-61,"Nuclear Weapons and Delivery Capabilities of Free World CountriesOther than the US and UK," September21,1961, microfiche supplement to U.S. Department of State, ForeignRelations of the United States,1961-1963, Volume VII, Arms Control and Disarmament (Washington, D.C., U.S.Government Printing Office,1997).
118“中情局关于中国原子能计划的评估”，1960年12月13日，沈志华、杨奎松主编：《美国对华情报揭秘档
案（1948－1976）》第三册，东方出版中心，2009年出版，上海，第41页。
119Avner Cohen, Israel and The Bomb, Columbia University Press, New York,1998, p.101-102.
120政策规划署草案，“国家安全基本政策”，1962年6月22日，载周建明、王成至主编《美国国家安全战略解密文献选编：1945－1972》第二册，社会科学文献出版社，北京，2010年出版，第423页。
121同上，第423－424页。
122（俄）阿纳托利多勃雷宁著，肖敏、王为译：《信赖：多勃雷宁回忆录》，世界知识出版社，北京，1997年出版，第105页。
123前引书，第112页。
124（美）威廉姆泰尔菲著，牛景立编译：《肯尼迪》，京华出版社，北京，2009年出版，第252页。
125前引书，第254页。
126（美）小阿瑟M施莱辛格著，仲宜译：《一千天：约翰菲肯尼迪在白宫》，生活读书新知三联书店，北京，1981年出版，第654页。
127参见（美）雷蒙德加特霍夫著，伍牛、王薇译：《冷战史：遏制与共存备忘录》，新华出版社，北京，2003年出版，第188－190页。
128“核扩散委员会致总统的报告”，1965年1月21日，载周建明、王成至主编《美国国家安全战略解密文献选编：1945－1972》（第二册），社会科学文献出版社，北京，2010年出版，第671－679页。
129转引自姜振飞著：《美国约翰逊政府与国际核不扩散体制》，中国社会科学出版社，北京，2008年出版，第
135－136页。
130U.S. Department of State Policy Planning Council,"The Further Spread of Nuclear Weapons: Problems for theWest,"14February1966, National Archives, Record Group59, Records of the Department of State (RG59)., Recordsof Policy Planning Council,1965-1968Subject, Country and Area Files, box384, Atomic Energy-Armaments (2of4).
131（俄）阿纳托利多勃雷宁著，肖敏、王为译：《信赖：多勃雷宁回忆录》，世界知识出版社，北京，1997年出版，第169页。
132有关《不扩散核武条约》形成经过及其争论的分析，可参见姜振飞著：《美国约翰逊政府与国际核不扩散体制》，中国社会科学出版社，北京，2008年出版。
133"The Impulse towards a Safer World"40th Anniversary of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, Washington, D.C.,July1,2008, http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/nukevault/ebb253/index.htm
134关于《不扩散核武器条约》缺陷的深度分析，可参见赵恒著：《核不扩散机制：历史与理论》，世界知识出版社，北京，2009年出版，第60－73页。
135Memo from Henry Owen, Director, Policy Planning Council, to Secretary Rusk,"After NPT, What,"10June1968,enclosing Policy Planning Council study of the same title,28May1968. Secret, RG59, Policy Planning CouncilSubject, Country, and Area Files,1965-1968, box384, Atomic Energy-Armaments.
136William C. Foster, to Executive Secretary Benjamin H. Read,"Basic Issues Regarding NPT and Timing ofRatification,''22November1968, Secret. National Archives, Record Group59, Records of the Department of State,1967-1969Subject-Numeric Files, DEF18-6.
137“核扩散委员会致总统的报告”，1965年1月21日，载周建明、王成至主编《美国国家安全战略解密文献选编：1945－1972》第二册，社会科学文献出版社，北京，2010年出版，第671－672页。
138李琮主编：《世界经济学大辞典》，经济科学出版社2000年，第938页。
139元世勇主编：《新词语大辞典》，世纪出版社2003年版，第1578页。
140陈兼著：“对‘冷战’在战略层面的再界定：二十世纪六十年代末、七十年代初美国对华及东亚政策的转变及其涵义”，《国际政治研究》2008年第3期；或参见牛军主编《战略的魔咒：冷战时期的美国大战略研究》，上海人民出版社，上海，2009年出版，第205页。
141陈兼著：“对‘冷战’在战略层面的再界定：二十世纪六十年代末、七十年代初美国对华及东亚政策的转变及其涵义”，《国际政治研究》2008年第3期；或参见牛军主编《战略的魔咒：冷战时期的美国大战略研究》，上海人民出版社，上海，2009年出版，第224页。
142转引自时殷弘著：《尼克松主义》，武汉大学出版社，武汉，1984年出版，第11－12页。
143（美）约翰·加迪斯著，时殷弘等译：《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》附录，世界知识出版社，北京，2005年出版，第375页。
144转引自时殷弘著：《尼克松主义》，武汉大学出版社，武汉，1984年出版，第11－14页。
145（美）亨利·基辛格著，陈瑶华等译：《白宫岁月》（第1册），世界知识出版社，北京，2003年出版，第299页。
146（美）亨利·基辛格著，陈瑶华等译：《白宫岁月》（第1册），世界知识出版社，北京，2003年出版，第286页。
147时殷弘著：《尼克松主义》，武汉大学出版社，武汉，1984年出版，第15页。
148（美）罗伯特L奥康奈尔著，卿颉、金马译：《兵器史：由兵器科技促成的西方历史》，海南出版社，海口，2009年出版，第415页。
149前引书，第417页。
150前引书，第423页。
151时殷弘著：《尼克松主义》，武汉大学出版社，武汉，1984年出版，第16页。
152陈兼著：“对‘冷战’在战略层面的再界定：二十世纪六十年代末、七十年代初美国对华及东亚政策的转变及其涵义”，《国际政治研究》2008年第3期；或参见牛军主编《战略的魔咒：冷战时期的美国大战略研究》，上海人民出版社，上海，2009年出版，第211页。
153王绳祖主编：《国际关系史（1960－1969）》第九卷，世界知识出版社，北京，1995年出版，第16－19页。
154法国退出北约军事一体化机构的举措包括：1966年7月1日起，法国驻德国部队不再隶属于北约，但仍继续在德国驻扎；同一天，法国将从北约军事一体化司令部撤出法国人员，代之以普通的联络代表团；7月23日，法国在北大西洋防务学院的高级人员和学员在本学期结业后撤走；1967年4月1日前，欧洲盟军最高司令部、中欧盟军司令部和北约防务委员会迁出法国领土。参见王绳祖主编：《国际关系史（1960－1969）》第九卷，世界知识出版社，北京，1995年出版，第202页。
155关于美国战略决策的逻辑程序，请参见张曙光著：《美国对华战略考虑与决策（1949－1972）》，上海外语教育出版社2002年版，第363－376页；周建明、张曙光著：《美国安全解读》，新华出版社，北京，2002年出版，第11页，等等。
156张曙光著：《美国遏制战略与冷战起源再探》，上海外语教育出版社，上海，2007年出版，第49－51页。
157前引书，第140页。
158国家安全委员会第68号文件，“美国国家安全的目标和计划”，1950年4月14日，载周建明、王成至主编《美国国家安全战略解密文献选编：1945－1972》第一册，社会科学文献出版社，北京，2010年出版，第54－56页。
159前引书，第102页。
160（美）约翰·加迪斯著，时殷弘等译：《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》，世界知识出版社，北京，2005年出版，第300页。
161关于尼克松－基辛格这一政治组合的更多分析，可参见（美）约翰·加迪斯著，时殷弘等译：《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》，世界知识出版社，2005年出版；张曙光著：《美国对华战略考虑与决策（1949－1972）》，上海外语教育出版社，2002年出版；张曙光著：《接触外交：尼克松政府与解冻中美关系》，世界知识出版社，2009年出版，等著作。
162“美国副总统向英联邦英语国家联盟发表的言说”，1958年11月26日，载（美）理查德·尼克松著，黄兴等译：《六次危机》附录，世界知识出版社，北京，1999年出版，第618页。
163（美）沃尔特·艾萨克森著，刘汉生等译：《基辛格：大国博弈的背后》，国际文化出版公司，2008年出版。，第103页。
164（美）约翰·加迪斯著，时殷弘等译：《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》，世界知识出版社，北京，2005年出版，第300页。
165（美）理查德·尼克松著，伍任等译：《尼克松回忆录》（上册），世界知识出版社，北京，2001年出版，第414页。
166（美）沃尔特·艾萨克森著，刘汉生等译：《基辛格：大国博弈的背后》，国际文化出版公司，2008年出版。，第103页。
167转引自戴超武：“基辛格－尼克松的‘宏大构想’、尼克松主义与冷战转型”，载《南开学报》（哲学社会学科版），2007年第5期。
168（美）理查德·尼克松著，常诤译：《真正的战争》，新华出版社，北京，1980年出版，第348页。
169前引书，第350页。
170（美）亨利基辛格著，刘丽媛、张维等译：《动乱年代：基辛格回忆录》（第三册），世界知识出版社，北京，1983年出版，第170页。
171（美）亨利基辛格著，顾淑馨、林添贵译：《大外交》，海南出版社，海口，1998年出版，第690页。
172戴超武：“基辛格－尼克松的‘宏大构想’、尼克松主义与冷战转型”，载《南开学报》（哲学社会学科版），2007年第5期。
173（美）罗伯特L奥康奈尔著，卿颉、金马译：《兵器史：由兵器科技促成的西方历史》，海南出版社，海口，2009年出版，第419页。
174关于苏联入侵阿富汗的历史经验和教训分析，可参见（俄）A利亚霍夫斯基著，刘宪平译：《阿富汗战争的悲剧》，社会科学文献出版社，北京，2004年出版。
175关于“尼克松主义”有关内容的分析，可参见（美）亨利基辛格著，陈瑶华等译：《白宫岁月》（第一册），第280－284页；王绳祖主编：《国际关系史（1970－1979）》第十卷，第4－7页；或时殷弘著：《尼克松主义》，等等。
176王绳祖主编：《国际关系史（1970－1979）》第十卷，世界知识出版社，北京，1995年出版，第5页
177（美）理查德·尼克松著，伍任等译：《尼克松回忆录》（上册），世界知识出版社，北京，2001年出版，第339页。
178张曙光著：《接触外交：尼克松政府与解冻中美关系》，世界知识出版社，北京，2009年出版，第319页。
179（美）约翰·加迪斯著，时殷弘等译：《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》，世界知识出版社，北京，2005年出版，第292页。
180（美）沃尔特·艾萨克森著，刘汉生等译：《基辛格：大国博弈的背后》，国际文化出版公司，2008年出版。，第573页。
181关于美国政府内部主张军事打击中国核计划这一点，不少著作都详略不等地提到了这一点，参见朱明权等著：《威慑与稳定：中美核关系》，时事出版社，北京，2005年出版，第161－179页；或（美）麦乔治·邦迪著，《美国核战略》，第715页；（俄）阿纳托利·多勃雷宁著，《信赖：多勃雷宁回忆录》，第156页；（美）雷蒙德加特霍夫著，《冷战史：遏制与共存备忘录》，第188页。
182关于中美关系解冻过程中“核军控与不扩散”问题的研究，可参见张曙光著：《接触外交：尼克松政府与解冻中美关系》第十章“核军控与中美缓和”，世界知识出版社，北京，2009年出版，第260-289页。
183张曙光著：《接触外交：尼克松政府与解冻中美关系》，世界知识出版社，北京，2009年出版，第288页。
184（美）麦乔治·邦迪著，褚广友等译：《美国核战略》，世界知识出版社，北京，1991年出版，第693页。或Raymond L. Garthoff, Détente and Confrontation: American-Soviet Relations from Nixon to Reagon, Washington,1985, p.286.
185Francis J. Gavin,“Nuclear Nixon: Ironies, Puzzles, and the Triumph of Realpolitik”, Fredrik Logevall and AndrewPreston edited, Nixon in the World, American Foreign Relations:1969-1977, Oxford, Oxford University Press,2008,
187张曙光著：《接触外交：尼克松政府与解冻中美关系》，世界知识出版社，北京，2009年出版，第46页。
188Robert Munn to Mr. Sisco,"Scheduling of Visit to Dimona Reactor," June12,1970. Secret/Exdis. RG59, RecordsRelating to Israel and Arab-Israeli Affairs,1951-1976, box26, NSSM-40.
189Jeffrey T. Richelson, Spying on the Bomb: American Nuclear Intelligence from Nazi Germany to Iran and NorthKorea, W. W. Norton&Company, New York,2006, p.245.
190David Albright and Corey Gay,“Taiwan: Nuclear Nightmare Averted”, The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,January/February1998, p.55.或参见（美）陶涵著，林添贵译：《蒋经国传》，新华出版社，北京，2002年出版，第267页，第352页。
191NIE4-66,"The Likelihood of Further Nuclear Proliferation," January20,1966，Lyndon B. Johnson Library.
192“阿拉伯联合共和国（United States ofArabia，UAR）”系1958年2月1日在埃及与叙利亚基础上组建的泛阿拉伯主义国家。1958年3月，阿拉伯联合共和国同也门王国（后来的阿拉伯也门共和国）组成邦联性质的阿拉伯合众国。1961年9月叙利亚宣布退出，同年12月阿拉伯合众国宣布解散。但埃及仍然保留“阿拉伯联合共和国”的国号，1971年9月“阿拉伯联合共和国”更名为阿拉伯埃及共和国。
193U.S. Embassy Tel Aviv, Airgram793,19March1966,"Nationalist Chinese Atomic Experts Visit Israel", NationalArchives, Record Group59, Department of State Records,1964-66, AE7Chinat.
194U.S. Embassy Tel Aviv, Airgram810,24March1966,"More on Nationalist Chinese Atomic Experts Visit to Israel",National Archives, Record Group59, Department of State Records,1964-66, AE7Chinat.
196U.S. Embassy Taipei, Airgram1037,20June1966,"Indications GRC Continues to Pursue Atomic Weaponry",National Archives, Record Group59, Department of State Records,1964-66, DEF12-1Chinat.
197U.S. Embassy Taipei, Airgram566,21February1967,"GRC Plans for Purchase of50Megawatt Heavy WaterNuclear Power Plant", National Archives, Record Group59, Department of State Records,1967-69, FSE13Chinat.
198肖元恺著：《百年之结：美国与中国台湾地区关系的历史透视》，人民出版社，北京，2001年出版，第162页。
199由于原报告上的日期已被部分覆盖，疑似为11月16，以下注释同。
200Morton Abramowitz to Ray S. Cline, Director, Office of Intelligence and Research, SNIE43-1-72: Taipei'sCapabilities and Intentions Regarding Nuclear Weapons Development,"15November1972.
201Special National Intelligence Estimate (SNIE)43-1-72,"Taipei's Capabilities and Intentions Regarding NuclearWeapons Development,"16(?) November1972.
202Special National Intelligence Estimate (SNIE)43-1-72,"Taipei's Capabilities and Intentions Regarding NuclearWeapons Development,"16(?) November1972.
203Special National Intelligence Estimate (SNIE)43-1-72,"Taipei's Capabilities and Intentions Regarding NuclearWeapons Development,"16(?) November1972.
204Special National Intelligence Estimate (SNIE)43-1-72,"Taipei's Capabilities and Intentions Regarding NuclearWeapons Development,"16(?) November1972.
205Special National Intelligence Estimate (SNIE)43-1-72,"Taipei's Capabilities and Intentions Regarding NuclearWeapons Development,"16(?) November1972.
206Special National Intelligence Estimate (SNIE)43-1-72,"Taipei's Capabilities and Intentions Regarding NuclearWeapons Development,"16(?) November1972.
207State Department Memorandum of Conversation,"Nuclear Programs in Republic of China,"9February1973,National Archives, Record Group59, Department of State Records,1970-73, AE6Chinat.
208曾任尼克松政府国家安全委员会行动处官员，当时为负责东亚与太平洋事务的助理国务卿帮办。
209Memorandum to Mr.[Richard] Sneider from Mary E. McDonnell, U.S. Department of State, Office of Republic ofChina Affairs,"Reported ROC Nuclear Weapons Development Program,"7April1973, RG59, Department of StateRecords,1970-73, AE6Chinat.
210Special National Intelligence Estimate4-1-74,"Prospects for Further Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,"23August1974, p.26-29. http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB240/snie.pdf
211Special National Intelligence Estimate4-1-74,"Prospects for Further Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,"23August1974, p.26－29,http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB240/snie.pdf
212Central Intelligence Agency, Directorate of Intelligence, Office of Political Research, Research Study,"ManagingNuclear Proliferation: The Politics of Limited Choice" December1975, CREST, National Archives Library, CollegePark, Maryland.
213Jeffrey T. Richelson, Spying on the Bomb: American Nuclear Intelligence from Nazi Germany to Iran and NorthKorea, W. W. Norton&Company, New York,2006, p.275.
214U.S. Embassy Bonn,"German Nuclear Reactor for Taiwan," Cable3000,25March1966, National Archives,Record Group59, Department of State Records,1964-66, AE7Chinat.
215U.S. Embassy Bonn, Cable3292,15April1966,"German Nuclear Reactor for Taiwan", National Archives, RecordGroup59, Department of State Records,1964-66, AE7Chinat.
216State Department to Embassies in Bonn and Taipei, Cable2896,23April1966, National Archives, Record Group59, Department of State Records,1964-66, AE6Chinat.
217State Department to Embassies Taipei and Bonn, Cable161887,20March1967, National Archives, Record Group59, Department of State Records,1967-69, FSE13Chinat.
218David Albright and Corey Gay,“Taiwan: Nuclear Nightmare Averted”, The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,January/February1998, p.57－58.
219Embassy Taipei to State Department,"Chung Shan Nuclear Research Institute," Cable1197,24February1973, RG59, Department of State Records,1970-73, FSE13Chinat.
220State Department to Embassies in Bonn, Brussels, and Taipei,"Proposed Reprocessing Plant for Republic ofChina," Cable12137,20January1973, RG59, Department of State Records,1970-73, FSE13Chinat.
221State Department Memorandum of Conversation,"ROC Nuclear Energy Plans,"29August1973, RG59,Department of State Records,1970-1973, AE1Chinat.
222Embassy Taipei to State Department,"Chung Shan Nuclear Research Institute," Cable1197,24February RG59,Department of State Records,19731970-73, FSE13Chinat.
228Embassy Taipei to State Department,"Proposed Reprocessing Plant for Republic of China," Cable0338,16January1973, RG59, Department of State Records,1970-73, FSE13Chinat.
229Embassy Taipei to State Department,"Proposed ROC Reprocessing Plant," Cable685,31January1973, RG59,Department of State Records,1970-73, FSE13Chinat.
230State Department Memorandum of Conversation,"ROC Nuclear Energy Plans,"29August1973RG59, Department of State Records,1970-1973, AE1Chinat.
231钟坚著：《爆心零时：两岸迈向核武的历程》，麦田出版社，台北，2004年出版，第159页。
232David Albright and Corey Gay,“Taiwan: Nuclear Nightmare Averted”, The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,January/February1998, p.58－59; Jeffrey T. Richelson, Spying on the Bomb: American Nuclear Intelligence fromNazi Germany to Iran and North Korea, W. W. Norton&Company, New York,2006, p.274-277.
233State Department cable91733to Embassy Taiwan,"ROC's Nuclear Intentions",4September1976, Secret Exdis.
234U.S. Embassy Taiwan cable6272to State Department,"ROC's Nuclear Intentions: Conversation with PremierChiang Ching-kuo,"15September1976, Secret Nodis.
235U.S. Embassy Taiwan cable6301to State Department,"ROC's Nuclear Intentions,"17September1976,Unclassified.（引文译自英文电文，使用时未核对报纸原文。）
236State Department to Embassies in Taipei and Tokyo,"ROC Nuclear Research," Cable51747,21March1973, RG
59, Department of State Records,1970-1973, AE1Chinat.
237Embassy, Taipei to State Department,"ROC Nuclear Intentions," Cable2354,20April1973, RG59, Department ofState Records,1970-73, AE1Chinat.
238Roger Sullivan to Assistant Secretary of State for Far East and Pacific Affairs Arthur W. Hummel, Jr.,"NuclearStudy Group Visit to Taiwan,"29October1973, National Archives, Record Group59, Department of State Records,Subject Files of the Office of Republic of China Affairs,1951-1975, Box14, AE3-Nuclear Study Group197.3
239U.S. Embassy Taiwan cable6272to State Department,"ROC's Nuclear Intentions: Conversation with PremierChiang Ching-kuo,"15September1976, Secret Nodis.
240U.S. Embassy Taiwan cable6864to State Department, ROC's Nuclear Intentions: Conversation with Premier,12October1976, Secret Exdis.
241U.S. Embassy Taiwan cable8654to State Department,"U.S. Nuclear Team Visit,"30December1976, SecretExdis.
242U.S. Embassy Taiwan cable332to State Department,"US Nuclear Team Conclusions and Recommendations,"17February1977, Secret Nodis.
243State Department to Embassies in Bonn, Brussels, and Taipei,"Proposed Reprocessing Plant for Republic ofChina," Cable12137,20January1973, RG59, Department of State Records,1970-73, FSE13Chinat.
244Embassy Taipei to State Department,"Proposed ROC Reprocessing Plant," Cable685,31January1973, RG59,Department of State Records, Subject-Numeric Files,1970-1973, FSE13Chinat.
245State Department to Embassies in Taipei and Tokyo,"ROC Nuclear Research," Cable51747,21March1973, RG
59, Department of State Records, Subject-Numeric Files,1970-1973, AE1Chinat.
246State Department Memorandum of Conversation,"ROC Nuclear Energy Plans,"29August1973RG59, Department of State Records,1970-1973, AE1Chinat.
247State Department cable174889to U.S. Embassy Taiwan,"Call on Assistant Secretary Hummel by Victor Cheng,"4September1973, Secret, National Archives, Access to Archival Databases, State Department Central Foreign PolicyFiles, Electronic Telegrams1973(AAD).
248Document2B: Roger Sullivan to Assistant Secretary of State for Far East and Pacific Affairs Arthur W. Hummel, Jr.,"Nuclear Study Group Visit to Taiwan,"29October1973, National Archives, Record Group59, Department of StateRecords, Subject Files of the Office of Republic of China Affairs,1951-1975, Box14, AE3-Nuclear Study Group
197.3
249Letter of William Gleysteenv to Thomas Bleha,23November1973, National Archives, Record Group59,Department of State Records, Subject Files of the Office of Republic of China Affairs,1951-1975, Box14, AE3-Nuclear Study Group1973.
250U.S. Embassy Taiwan cable5536to State Department,"Nuclear Fuel Reprocessing Plant,"16August1976, SecretExdis.
2511976年，来自密苏里州的民主党参议员斯图亚特·赛明顿（Stuart Symington）提出了《对外援助法案》的修正案，要求禁止美国向那些违反国际原子能机构规定，输送、接受、获取和转让的核浓缩技术和设备的国家提供军事、经济援助以及出口信贷。1977年该条款被国会通过，成为《武器出口控制法案（AECA）》第102款。
252State Department cable91733to Embassy Taiwan,"ROC's Nuclear Intentions,"4September1976, Secret Exdis.
253U.S. Embassy Taiwan cable6100to State Department,"Demarche on ROC's Nuclear Intentions,"9September1976, Secret Exdis.
254U.S. Embassy Taiwan cable6272to State Department,"ROC's Nuclear Intentions: Conversation with PremierChiang Ching-kuo,"15September1976, Secret Nodis.
255U.S. Embassy Taiwan cable6272to State Department,"ROC's Nuclear Intentions: Conversation with PremierChiang Ching-kuo,"15September1976, Secret Nodis.
256State Department cable4532to Embassy Taiwan,"Taiwan's Continued Interest in Reprocessing,"8January1977,Secret Exdis.
257（美）理查德尼克松著，裘克安等译：《尼克松回忆录》（中册），世界知识出版社，北京，2001年出版，第
471页。
258熊志勇：“艰难的选择：中美关系正常化对美台关系的影响”，资中筠、何迪主编：《美台关系四十年》，人民出版社，北京，1991年出版，第168页。
259陈兼著：“对‘冷战’在战略层面的再界定：二十世纪六十年代末、七十年代初美国对华及东亚政策的转变及其涵义”，《国际政治研究》2008年第3期；或参见牛军主编《战略的魔咒：冷战时期的美国大战略研究》，上海人民出版社，上海，2009年出版，第222页。
260William Burr edited, U.S. Opposed Taiwanese Bomb during1970s, National Security Archive Electronic BriefingBook No.221, June15,2007. http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/nukevault/ebb221/index.htm
261William Burr edited, New Archival Evidence on Taiwanese "Nuclear Intentions",1966-1976, National SecurityArchive Electronic Briefing Book No.19, October13,1999. http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB20/
262Memorandum from Burton Levin, Office of Republic of China Affairs, to Oscar Armstrong, Deputy AssistantSecretary for East Asian Affairs,"PRCLO Comment on Taiwan Nuclear Development,"12October1976, RG59,Policy Planning Staff (Director's Files),1969-7, box377, WL China Sensitive Chron10/1-12/31/76.
263熊志勇：“艰难的选择：中美关系正常化对美台关系的影响”，资中筠、何迪主编：《美台关系四十年》，人民出版社，北京，1991年出版，第187页。
264Glenn H. Snyder,“The Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics”, World Politics, Vol.34, No.3, July1984；或参见孙德刚著：《多元平衡与准联盟理论研究》，时事出版社，北京，2007年出版，第108－120页。
265Derek J. Mitchell,” Taiwan’s Hsin Chu Programme: Deterrence, Abandonment, and Honor”, Kurt M. Campbell,Robert J. Einhorn, Mitchell B. Reiss edited, The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their NuclearChoices, Washington, The Brookings Institution Press,2004, p.295.
266（美）亨利·基辛格著，陈瑶华等译：《白宫岁月》第四册，世界知识出版社，北京，2003年出版，第1389页。
267“总统、基辛格博士和黑格将军在白宫椭圆形办公室会晤之会议记录”，1971年7月1日，转引自张曙光、周建明编译：《中美解冻与台湾问题：尼克松外交文献选编》，香港中文大学出版社，香港，2008年出版，第172页。
268肖元恺著：《百年之结：美国与中国台湾地区关系的历史透视》，人民出版社，北京，2001年出版，第161页。
270张清敏著：《美国对台军售政策研究》，世界知识出版社，北京，2006年出版，第75页。
271State Department cable219733to Embassy Taiwan,"ROC's Nuclear Intentions,"4September1976, Secret Exdis,Freedom of Information Act request.
272State Department cable235429to U.S. Embassy Taiwan,"Congressional Hearings on ROC Nuclear Activities,"9October1976, Confidential, Freedom of Information Act request.
273钟坚著：《爆心零时：两岸迈向核武历程》，麦田出版社，台北，2004年出版，第138页。
274Vincent Wei-Cheng Wang,“Taiwan: Conventional Deterrence, Soft Power, and Nuclear Option”, MuthiahAlagappa edited, The Long Shadow: Nuclear Weapons and Security in21stCentury Asia, California, StanfordUniversity Press,2008, p.414.
275Memorandum from Leo J. Moser, Office of Republic of China Affairs, to Assistant Secretary for East Asian andPacific Affairs Marshall Green,"Nuclear Materials Reprocessing Plant for ROC,"14December1972, RG59,Department of State Records,1970-1973, FSE13Chinat.
276（美）罗伯特·S·罗斯著，丛凤辉等译：《风云变幻的美中关系（1969－1989）》，中央编译出版社，北京，1998年出版，第15页。
277熊志勇：“艰难的选择：中美关系正常化对美台关系的影响”，资中筠、何迪主编：《美台关系四十年》，人民出版社，北京，1991年出版，第183页。
279肖元恺著：《百年之结：美国与中国台湾地区关系的历史透视》，人民出版社，北京，2001年出版，第173－174页。
280基辛格“在10月份访问中国时的情况简介”备忘录，1971年11月，转引自张曙光、周建明编译：《中美解冻与台湾问题：尼克松外交文献选编》，香港中文大学出版社，香港，2008年出版，第545页。
281“周总理和尼克松的会谈”记录，1972年2月22日，转引自张曙光、周建明编译：《中美解冻与台湾问题：尼克松外交文献选编》，香港中文大学出版社，香港，2008年出版，第606页。
282（美）理查德尼克松著，裘克安等译：《尼克松回忆录》（中册），世界知识出版社，北京，2001年出版，第685页。
283（美）理查德尼克松著，伍任等译：《尼克松回忆录》（上册），世界知识出版社，北京，2001年出版，第
340页。2841957年3月20日，驻台美军士兵雷诺枪杀了台湾“革命实践研究院”少校学员刘自然，美国军事法庭事后宣布雷诺无罪开释，这一事件引起了台湾民众的强烈不满。5月24日下午，数千名台湾民众攻入美国驻台使馆，打伤八名美方人员，并砸开保险柜抢走了机密文件，这就是台湾战后历史上著名的“五二四事件”。美方怀疑“五二四事件”背后的主使很可能就是蒋经国。
285U.S. Embassy Taiwan cable8654to State Department,"U.S. Nuclear Team Visit,"30December1976, SecretExdis. Freedom of Information Act request
286钟坚著：《爆心零时：两岸迈向核武的历程》，麦田出版社，台北，2004年出版，第153－154页。
287U.S. Embassy Taipei, Airgram1037,20June1966,"Indications GRC Continues to Pursue Atomic Weaponry",National Archives, Record Group59, Department of State Records,1964-66, DEF12-1Chinat.
288U.S. Embassy Taipei, Airgram1037,20June1966,"Indications GRC Continues to Pursue Atomic Weaponry",National Archives, Record Group59, Department of State Records,1964-66, DEF12-1Chinat.
289邱宏义著：《中国物理学之父吴大猷》，新疆人民出版社，乌鲁木齐，2004年出版，第185－189页。
290U.S. Embassy Taiwan cable6272to State Department,"ROC's Nuclear Intentions: Conversation with PremierChiang Ching-kuo,"15September1976, Secret Nodis；或参见（美）陶涵著，林添贵译：《蒋经国传》，新华出版社，北京，2002年出版，第352页。
291U.S. Embassy Taipei, Airgram1037,20June1966,"Indications GRC Continues to Pursue Atomic Weaponry",National Archives, Record Group59, Department of State Records,1964-66, DEF12-1Chinat.
292钟坚著：《爆心零时：两岸迈向核武的历程》，麦田出版社，台北，2004年出版，第156页。
293王光远编著：《蒋介石在台湾》，中国文史出版社，北京，2008年出版，第229页。
295Ernest W. Lefever, Nuclear Arms in the Third World: U.S. Policy Dilemma, Washington, Brookings Institution,1979, p.97.
296龙中天：“蒋经国在台湾：来台后的几个时代”，时事出版社编辑部选编：《蒋经国在台湾》，时事出版社，1988年出版，北京，第36页。
297茅家琦主编：《台湾三十年：1949－1979》，河南人民出版社，郑州，1988年出版，第36页。
298洛德致基辛格备忘录“4月13日会晤的会谈要点——其他主题”和“在台湾岛的核武器”，1972年4月11日，转引自张曙光、周建明编译：《中美解冻与台湾问题：尼克松外交文献选编》，香港中文大学出版社，香港，2008年出版，第779页。
299茅家琦主编：《台湾三十年：1949－1979》，河南人民出版社，郑州，1988年出版，第218页。
300肖元恺著：《百年之结：美国与中国台湾地区关系的历史透视》，人民出版社，北京，2001年出版，第165页。
301Derek J. Mitchell,” Taiwan’s Hsin Chu Programme: Deterrence, Abandonment, and Honor”, Kurt M. Campbell,Robert J. Einhorn, Mitchell B. Reiss edited, The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their NuclearChoices, Washington, The Brookings Institution Press,2004, p.296-297.
302曾景忠、梁之彦选编：《蒋经国自述》，团结出版社，北京，2007年出版，第290页。
303（美）陶涵著，林添贵译：《蒋经国传》，新华出版社，北京，2002年出版，第325页。
304曾景忠、梁之彦选编：《蒋经国自述》，团结出版社，北京，2007年出版，第249页。
307进出口占一国国民生产总值的比重。
308Etel Solingen, Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, Princeton, PrincetonUniversity Press,2007, p.113.
309Special National Intelligence Estimate4-1-74,"Prospects for Further Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,"23August1974, p.26－29,http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB240/snie.pdf
310Vincent Wei-Cheng Wang,“Taiwan: Conventional Deterrence, Soft Power, and Nuclear Option”, MuthiahAlagappa edited, The Long Shadow: Nuclear Weapons and Security in21stCentury Asia, California, StanfordUniversity Press,2008, p.411.
311U.S. Embassy Taiwan cable6272to State Department,"ROC's Nuclear Intentions: Conversation with PremierChiang Ching-kuo,"15September1976, Secret Nodis.
312魏绍志、孙向明：“台湾核计划覆灭揭秘”，《中国国防报》2000年5月12日。
313转引自王卫星：“台湾核武器之谜”，《世界知识》2003年第20期，第55－56页。
314（美）蒂姆韦纳著，杜默译：《中情局罪与罚：CIA60年秘史存灰》，海天出版社，深圳，2009年出版，第
371页。
315Derek J. Mitchell,“Taiwan’s Hsin Chu Programme: Deterrence, Abandonment, and Honor”, Kurt M. Campbell,Robert J. Einhorn, Mitchell B. Reiss edited, The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their NuclearChoices, Washington, The Brookings Institution Press,2004, p.300-301.
316钟坚著：《爆心零时：两岸迈向核武的历程》，麦田出版社，台北，2004年出版，第166页。
317Vincent Wei-Cheng Wang,“Taiwan: Conventional Deterrence, Soft Power, and Nuclear Option”, MuthiahAlagappa edited, The Long Shadow: Nuclear Weapons and Security in21stCentury Asia, California, StanfordUniversity Press,2008, p.414－415;或参见Vincent Wei-cheng Wang, Will Taiwan Contemplate a “Nuclear Option”?Security Imperative and Normative Transformation, Tamkang Journal of International Affairs, Vol.11, No.4, April2008, p.48.
318William Burr edited, U.S. Opposed Taiwanese Bomb during1970s, National Security Archive Electronic BriefingBook No.221, June15,2007. http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/nukevault/ebb221/index.htm
319Etel Solingen, Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, Princeton, PrincetonUniversity Press,2007, p.104.
320NIE4-66,"The Likelihood of Further Nuclear Proliferation," January20,1966，Lyndon B. Johnson Library.
321Memorandum to Mr.[Richard] Sneider from Mary E. McDonnell, U.S. Department of State, Office of Republic ofChina Affairs,"Reported ROC Nuclear Weapons Development Program,"7April1973, RG59, Department of StateRecords,1970-73, AE6Chinat.
322Etel Solingen, Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, Princeton, PrincetonUniversity Press,2007, p.111.
323Etel Solingen, Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, Princeton, PrincetonUniversity Press,2007, p.116.
324Etel Solingen, Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, Princeton, PrincetonUniversity Press,2007, p.113.
325Sylvia K. Crosbie, A Tacit Alliance: France and Israel from Suez to the Six Day War, Princeton University Press,Princeton, New Jersey,1974, p.121.
326National Intelligence Estimate100-2-58,"Development of Nuclear Capabilities by Fourth Countries: Likelihoodand Consequences," July1,1958, Secret. Dwight D. Eisenhower Library, mandatory review request.
327Jeffrey T. Richelson, Spying on the Bomb: American Nuclear Intelligence from Nazi Germany to Iran and NorthKorea, W. W. Norton&Company, New York,2006, p.248－250.
328SNIE100-8-60,"Implications of the Acquisition by Israel of a Nuclear Weapons Capability", December8,1960,http://www.irmep.org/ila/nukes/1960SNIE_Israeli_Nukes.pdf
329SNIE100-8-60,"Implications of the Acquisition by Israel of a Nuclear Weapons Capability", December8,1960,http://www.irmep.org/ila/nukes/1960SNIE_Israeli_Nukes.pdf
330SNIE100-8-60,"Implications of the Acquisition by Israel of a Nuclear Weapons Capability.", December8,1960,http://www.irmep.org/ila/nukes/1960SNIE_Israeli_Nukes.pdf
331Foreign Relations of the United States,1958-1960, Volume13, Arab-Israeli Dispute; United Arab Republic; NorthAfrica (Washington, D.C., U.S. Government Printing Office,1992), p.393-394.
332“Memorandum of Conference with the President,19December1960”,12January1961, International Files, Box8,Israel, DDEL.
333Avner Cohen, Israel and The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,1998, p.89-91.
334“Summary ofAdditional Recent Information Israeli Atomic Energy Program”, Assistant Secretary of the StateWilliam B. Macomber to James T. Ramey, the executive director of the Joint Committee on Atomic Energy,19January1961,The Dwight D. Eisenhower Presidential Library.
335"Post-Mortem on SNIE100-8-60: Implications of the Acquisition by Israel of a Nuclear Weapons Capability.” Draft,January31,1961,Department of States Lot files, Lot No57D688, United States National Archives.
336National Intelligence Estimate, NIE4-3-61,"Nuclear Weapons and Delivery Capabilities of Free World CountriesOther than the US and UK," September21,1961. microfiche supplement to U.S. Department of State, ForeignRelations of the United States,1961-1963, Volume VII, Arms Control and Disarmament (Washington, D.C., U.S.Government Printing Office,1997).
337Jeffrey T. Richelson, Spying on the Bomb: American Nuclear Intelligence from Nazi Germany to Iran and NorthKorea, W. W. Norton&Company, New York,2006, p.257.
338CIA, Office of National Estimate, Memorandum for the Director, Sherman Kent,“Consequence of IsraeliAcquisition of Nuclear Capability”,6March1963,1, National Security Files, Box118, JFKL.
339CIA, Office of National Estimate, Memorandum for the Director, Sherman Kent,“Consequence of IsraeliAcquisition of Nuclear Capability”,6March1963,1, National Security Files, Box118, JFKL.
340Jeffrey T. Richelson, Spying on the Bomb: American Nuclear Intelligence from Nazi Germany to Iran and NorthKorea, W. W. Norton&Company, New York,2006, p.258.
341Jeffrey T. Richelson, Spying on the Bomb: American Nuclear Intelligence from Nazi Germany to Iran and NorthKorea, W. W. Norton&Company, New York,2006, p.258.
342Special National Intelligence Estimate,30-2-63,"The Advanced Weapons Programs of the UAR and Israel," May8,1963, secret, excised copy. CIA FOIA release.
343National Intelligence Estimate Number4-63,“Likelihood and Consequences of a Proliferation of Nuclear WeaponsSystems”, June28,1963, secret, excised copy. CIA FOIA appeal release.
344President John Kennedy’s letter to prime minister Levi Eshkol,5July1963, Israel State Archive, Jerusalem, FMRG,3377/14.
345Zaki Shalom, Israel’s Nuclear Option, Behind the Scenes Diplomacy between Dimona and Washington, Brightonand Portland, Sussex Academic Press,2005, p.59.
346NIE4-2-64,"Prospects for a Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons over the Next Decade," October21,1964. FOIAappeal release.
347Central Intelligence Agency,"Nuclear Weapons Programs Around the World,"3December1964, top secret, excisedcopy. Mandatory review request by National Security Archive to Lyndon B. Johnson Library, National Security File,Committee File, Committee on Nuclear Proliferation, box6, Prospects for Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
348Zaki Shalom, Israel’s Nuclear Option, Behind the Scenes Diplomacy between Dimona and Washington, Brightonand Portland, Sussex Academic Press,2005, p.104-106.
349Zaki Shalom, Israel’s Nuclear Option, Behind the Scenes Diplomacy between Dimona and Washington, Brightonand Portland, Sussex Academic Press,2005, p.116-117.
350NIE4-66,"The Likelihood of Further Nuclear Proliferation," January20,1966, Secret, excised copy. Lyndon B.Johnson Library, mandatory review release, currently under appeal.
351NIE4-66,"The Likelihood of Further Nuclear Proliferation," January20,1966, Secret, excised copy. Lyndon B.Johnson Library, mandatory review release, currently under appeal.
352U.S. Department of State Policy Planning Council,"The Further Spread of Nuclear Weapons: Problems for theWest,"14February1966, Secret. National Archives, Record Group59, Records of the Department of State, Records ofPolicy Planning Council,1965-1968Subject, Country and Area Files, box384, Atomic Energy-Armaments.
353U.S. Department of State Policy Planning Council,"The Further Spread of Nuclear Weapons: Problems for theWest,"14February1966, Secret. National Archives, Record Group59, Records of the Department of State, Records of
357Parker T. Hart to Secretary Dean Rusk,"Issues to be Considered in Connection With Negotiations With Israel forF-4Phantom Aircraft," October15,1968, Top Secret/Nodis (Note2)/Sensitive. Department of State Records, RecordGroup59,1967-1969, Def12-5Isr.
358Memorandum of W. W. Rostow to President Johnson,“Talking Points for Prime Minister Eshkol”,5January1968,National Security Files, Country Files-Israel, Box144-145, Lyndon B Johnson Presidential Library.
359Secretary of State Dean Rusk, Memorandum to the President,"Letter to Prime Minister Eshkol on NPT,"19April1968, Secret. National Archives, Record Group59, Records of the Department of State,1967-1969Subject-NumericFiles, DEF18-6.
360Memorandum of Conversation,"Negotiations with Israel-F4and Advanced Weapons," November4,1968. TopSecret/Sensitive, National Security Files, Israel, Vol XI, Memos&Cables, Lyndon B. Johnson Library.
361Memorandum of Conversation,"Negotiations with Israel-F4and Advanced Weapons," November8,1968. TopSecret/Sensitive, National Security Files, Israel, Vol XI, Memos&Cables, Lyndon B. Johnson Library.
362Avner Cohen, Israel and The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,1998, p.314-315.
363Telegram (269999), Rusk to Tel Aviv Embassy,8November1968, RG59, CFPF,1967-1969, Box2060, POLISR-US1968, USNA.
364Memcon,"Negotiations with Israel-F4and Advanced Weapons," November12,1968. Top Secret. NationalSecurity Files, Israel, Vol XI, Memos&Cables, Lyndon B. Johnson Library.
365Paul C. Warnke to Ambassador Yitzhak Rabin, November27,1968. Secret. National Security Files, Israel, Vol XI,Memos&Cables, Lyndon B. Johnson Library.
366Avner Cohen, Israel and The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,1998, p.321.
367Zaki Shalom, Israel’s Nuclear Option, Behind the Scenes Diplomacy between Dimona and Washington, Brightonand Portland, Sussex Academic Press,2005, p.166-167.
368Jeffrey T. Richelson, Spying on the Bomb: American Nuclear Intelligence from Nazi Germany to Iran and NorthKorea, W. W. Norton&Company, New York,2006, p.257.
369Avner Cohen, Israel and The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,1998, p.327-328.
370Henry Owen to the Secretary,"Impact on U.S. Policies of an Israeli Nuclear Weapons Capability," February7,1969.Secret/Nodis/Noforn. Department of State Records, Record Group59, Subject-Numeric Files,1967-1969, DEF12Isr.
371Secretary of Defense Melvin Laird to Secretary of State et al.,"Stopping the Introduction of Nuclear Weapons intothe Middle East," March17,1969. Top Secret, excised copy. Nixon Presidential Materials Project（NPMP）, NationalSecurity Council Files（NSCF）, box604, Israel Vol. I.
372Joseph J. Sisco to the Secretary,"Israel's Nuclear Policy and Implications for the United States," April3,1969.Secret/Nodis. Department of State Records, Subject-Numeric Files,1967-1969, DEF12Isr.
373Joseph J. Sisco to the Secretary,"Israel's Nuclear Policy and Implications for the United States," April3,1969.Secret/Nodis. Department of State Records, Subject-Numeric Files:1967-1969, DEF12Isr.
374Memo from Kissinger to the President ca. July1969. NSC files, Israeli Nuclear Program, Box612, Folder4.http://nixon.archives.gov/virtuallibrary/documents/mr/071969_israel.pdf
375Richardson to President,"Israel's Nuclear Program," with memorandum of conversation attached, August1,1969,Top Secret/Nodis. NPMP, NSCF, box604, Israel Vol II.
376Secretary of State William Rogers to President Nixon,"Suggested Position for You to Take with Israeli PrimeMinister Meir during Her Forthcoming Visit," September18,1969, with excerpt from briefing paper attached. TopSecret/Nodis. Subject-Numeric Files,1967-1969, DEF12.
377Theodore L. Eliot, State Department Executive Secretary, to Henry Kissinger,"Briefing Book-Visit of Mrs. GoldaMeir," September19,1969, enclosing "Background-Israel's Nuclear Weapon and Missile Programs." TopSecret/Nodis. Department of State Records, Subject-Numeric Files:1967-1969, Pol7Isr.
378Theodore L. Eliot, State Department Executive Secretary, to Henry Kissinger,"Briefing Book-Visit of Mrs. GoldaMeir," September19,1969, enclosing "Background-Israel's Nuclear Weapon and Missile Programs." TopSecret/Nodis. Department of State Records, Subject-Numeric Files:1967-1969, Pol7Isr.
379Henry Owen to the Secretary,"Impact on U.S. Policies of an Israeli Nuclear Weapons Capability," February7,1969.Secret/Nodis/Noforn. Department of State Records, Record Group59, Subject-Numeric Files:1967-1969, DEF12Isr.
380Joseph J. Sisco to the Secretary,"Israel's Nuclear Policy and Implications for the United States," April3,1969.Secret/Nodis. Department of State Records, Subject-Numeric Files:1967-1969, DEF12Isr.
381阿维纳柯亨指出，“NSSM-40是尼克松时代唯一仍在保密之中的国家安全研究备忘录，也是唯一不能从尼克松总统图书馆网站上获取的国家安全研究备忘录，它目前仍被标为‘完全保密’。”（Avner Cohen, TheWorst-Kept Secret: Israel’s Bargain with The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,2010, p.11.）
382Avner Cohen and William Burr, Israel Crosses the Threshold, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist, May/June,2006,p.25;或参见Avner Cohen, The Worst-Kept Secret: Israel’s Bargain with The Bomb, New York, Columbia UniversityPress,2010, p.10.
383（美）西摩·赫什著，吴聿衡等译：《权力的代价：尼克松执政时期的基辛格》，国际文化出版公司，北京，
386Memo from Kissinger to the President ca. July19,1969. NSCF, Israeli Nuclear Program, Box612, Folder4.http://nixon.archives.gov/virtuallibrary/documents/mr/071969_israel.pdf
387"The Issues for Decision," n.d.[Early July1969]. Top Secret/Nodis/Sensitive. NPMP, NSCF, box604, Israel Vol II.
388"The Issues for Decision," n.d.[Early July1969]. Top Secret/Nodis/Sensitive. NPMP, NSCF, box604, Israel Vol II.
389Avner Cohen, Israel and The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,1998, p.331-332.
390Memorandum of conversation,"1969Dimona Visit," August13,1969. Secret/Nodis. Department of State Records,Subject-Numeric Files,1967-1969, AE11-2Isr.
391Joseph J. Sisco to the Acting Secretary,"Talking Points for Initial Meeting with Israelis on Nuclear and SSM IssueJuly29," July28,1969. Top Secret/Nodis. Subject-Numeric Files1967-1969, Def12-1Isr.
392Richardson to President,"Israel's Nuclear Program," with memorandum of conversation attached, August1,1969,Top Secret/Nodis. NPMP, NSCF, box604, Israel Vol II.
393Richardson to the President,"Israel's Nuclear Program," August28,1969. Top Secret/Nodis. Department of StateRecords, Subject-Numeric Files,1967-1969, DEF12-1Isr.
394Secretary of State William Rogers to President Nixon,"Suggested Position for You to Take with Israeli PrimeMinister Meir during Her Forthcoming Visit," September18,1969, with excerpt from briefing paper attached. TopSecret/Nodis. Subject-Numeric Files,1967-1969, Pol7Isr.
395Theodore L. Eliot, State Department Executive Secretary, to Henry Kissinger,"Briefing Book-Visit of Mrs. GoldaMeir," September19,1969, enclosing "Background-Israel's Nuclear Weapon and Missile Programs." TopSecret/Nodis. Department of State Records, Subject-Numeric Files,1967-1969, Pol7Isr.
396Theodore L. Eliot, State Department Executive Secretary, to Henry Kissinger,"Briefing Book-Visit of Mrs. GoldaMeir," September19,1969, enclosing "Background-Israel's Nuclear Weapon and Missile Programs." TopSecret/Nodis. Department of State Records, Subject-Numeric Files,1967-1969, Pol7Isr.
397（以）果尔达·梅厄著，章仲远、李佩玉译：《梅厄夫人自传》，新华出版社，北京，1985年出版，第374－376页。
398Michael Karpin, The Bomb in the Basement: How Israel Went Nuclear and What That Means for the World,New York, London, Sydney and Toronto, Simon&Schuster Paperbacks,2006, p.318;或参见Avner Cohen andWilliam Burr,“Israel Crosses the Threshold”, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist, May/June,2006, p.28; Avner Cohen,The Worst-Kept Secret: Israel’s Bargain with The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,2010, p.25-26.
399Kissinger to the President,"Discussions with the Israelis on Nuclear Matters," October7,1969. TopSecret/Sensitive/Nodis. NPMP, NSCF, box605, Israel Vol III.
400Kissinger to the President,"Discussions with the Israelis on Nuclear Matters," October7,1969. TopSecret/Sensitive/Nodis. NPMP, NSCF, box605, Israel Vol III.
401Kissinger to the President, October8,1969, enclosing "Rabin's Proposed Assurances on Israel Nuclear Policy,"October8,1969. Top Secret/Nodis/Sensitive. NPMP, NSCF, box605, Israel Vol. III
402Kissinger to the President, October8,1969, enclosing "Rabin's Proposed Assurances on Israel Nuclear Policy,"October8,1969. Top Secret/Nodis/Sensitive. NPMP, NSCF, box605, Israel Vol. III
403Kissinger to Nixon,"Israel's Nuclear Program," November6,1969, with memorandum from Richardson andmemorandum of conversation attached. Top Secret/Nodis. NPMP, NSCF, box605, Israel Vol III.
404Memorandum of Conversation, Kissinger and Rabin, February23,1970. Top Secret/Sensitive. NPMP, Henry A.
407Memorandum from Atherton and Kratzer to Mr. Sisco,"Response to Congressional Questions on Israel's NuclearCapabilities," October15,1975. Department of State Records, Record Group59,1967-1969, DEF12, Records ofJoseph Sisco, box40, Israeli Nuclear Capability1975.
408Memo from Kissinger to the President ca. July1969. NSC files, Israeli Nuclear Program, Box612, Folder4.http://nixon.archives.gov/virtuallibrary/documents/mr/071969_israel.pdf
409"The Issues for Decision," n.d.[Early July1969]. Top Secret/Nodis/Sensitive. NPMP, NSCF, box604, Israel Vol II.
410Joseph J. Sisco to the Secretary,"Israel's Nuclear Policy and Implications for the United States," April3,1969.Secret/Nodis. Department of State Records,1967-1969, DEF12Isr
411（美）理查德·尼克松著，伍任等译：《尼克松回忆录》（中册），世界知识出版社，2001年出版，第578页。
412（以）米迦勒·巴尔－祖海尔，刘瑞祥、杨兆文译：《现代以色列之父：本－古里安传》，中国社会科学出版社，北京，1994年出版，第305页。
414李伟建等著：《以色列与美国关系研究》，时事出版社，北京，2006年出版，第17页。
415Abraham Ben Zvi, Decision of Transition: Eisenhower, Kennedy, and the Origins of the American-IsraeliAlliance, New York, Columbia University Press,1998, p.129.
416Zaki Shalom, Israel’s Nuclear Option, Behind the Scenes Diplomacy between Dimona and Washington, Brightonand Portland, Sussex Academic Press,2005, p.109.
417Avner Cohen, The Worst-Kept Secret: Israel’s Bargain with The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,2010, p.6.
418（以）果尔达·梅厄著，章仲远、李佩玉译：《梅厄夫人自传》，新华出版社，北京，1985年出版，第374页。
419Michael Karpin, The Bomb in the Basement: How Israel Went Nuclear and What That Means for the World,New York, London, Sydney and Toronto, Simon&Schuster Paperbacks,2006, p.319.
420（美）沃尔特·艾萨克森著，刘汉生等译：《基辛格：大国博弈的背后》，国际文化出版公司，2008年出版，第224页。
421（美）理查德·尼克松著，伍任等译：《尼克松回忆录》（中册），世界知识出版社，2001年出版，第577页。
422Memo from Kissinger to the President ca. July19,1969. NSCF, Israeli Nuclear Program, Box612, Folder4.http://nixon.archives.gov/virtuallibrary/documents/mr/071969_israel.pdf
423Robert Dallek, Nixon and Kissinger: Partners in Power, New York, Harper Collins Publishers,2007, p.176.
424Robert Dallek, Nixon and Kissinger: Partners in Power, New York, Harper Collins Publishers,2007, p.176.
425Avner Cohen, Israel and The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,1998, p.329.
426Avner Cohen, The Worst-Kept Secret: Israel’s Bargain with The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,2010, p.7.
427Robert Munn to Mr. Sisco,"Scheduling of Visit to Dimona Reactor," June12,1970. Secret/Exdis. RG59, RecordsRelating to Israel and Arab-Israeli Affairs,1951-1976, box26, NSSM-40.
428（美）西摩·赫什著，吴聿衡等译：《权力的代价：尼克松执政时期的基辛格》，国际文化出版公司，1991年出版，第191页。
429Paul Charles Merkley, American President, Religion, and Israel: The Heirs of Cyrus, Westport and London,Praeger Publishers,2004, p.63.
430Robert Dallek, Nixon and Kissinger: Partners in Power, New York, Harper Collins Publishers,2007, p.169-171.
431（美）亨利·基辛格著，张志明等译：《动乱年代：基辛格回忆录》（第一册），世界知识出版社，北京，1983年出版，第253－254页。
432（美）亨利·基辛格著，陈瑶华等译：《白宫岁月》（第一册），世界知识出版社，北京，2003年出版，第450页。
433（美）亨利·基辛格著，张志明等译：《动乱年代：基辛格回忆录》（第一册），世界知识出版社，北京，1983年出版，第254页。
434（美）理查德·尼克松著，范建民等译：《超越和平》，世界知识出版社，北京，1999年出版，第160页。
435（美）沃尔特·艾萨克森著，刘汉生等译：《基辛格：大国博弈的背后》，国际文化出版公司，北京，2008年出版，第13页。
436Robert Dallek, Nixon and Kissinger: Partners in Power, New York, Harper Collins Publishers,2007, p.171.或参
见（美）沃尔特·艾萨克森著，刘汉生等译：《基辛格：大国博弈的背后》，第414页；（美）亨利·基辛格著，张志明等译：《动乱年代：基辛格回忆录》（第一册），第255页。
437（美）亨利·基辛格著，刘丽媛等译：《动乱年代：基辛格回忆录》（第二册），世界知识出版社，北京，1983年出版，第157页。
439（以）果尔达·梅厄著，章仲远、李佩玉译：《梅厄夫人自传》，新华出版社，北京，1985年出版，第370页。
440（美）理查德·尼克松著，施燕华等译：《领袖们》，海南出版社，海口，2008年出版，第263－264页。
442（美）亨利·基辛格著，陈瑶华等译：《白宫岁月》（第一册），世界知识出版社，北京，2003年出版，第479页。
443（美）亨利·基辛格著，陈瑶华等译：《白宫岁月》（第一册），世界知识出版社，北京，2003年出版，第478页。
444转引自龚洪烈著：《基辛格的外交思想与战略》，南京大学出版社，南京，2009年出版，第314页。
445出生于波兰的以色列政治家，曾任以色列国防军总参谋长、国防部副部长、国防部部长、外交部部长、政府总理等职，现为以色列总统。
446Avner Cohen, Israel and The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,1998, p.24.
447Etel Solingen, Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, Princeton, PrincetonUniversity Press,2007, p.199.
448Zaki Shalom, Israel’s Nuclear Option: Behind the Scenes Diplomacy between Dimona and Washington, Brightonand Portland, Sussex Academic Press,2005, p.168-169.
449Zeev Moaz, Defending the Holy Land: A Critical Analysis of Israel’s Security&Foreign Policy, The Universityof Michigan Press, Ann Arbor,2006, p303.
450Special National Intelligence Estimate4-1-74,"Prospects for Further Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,"23August1974, Top Secret, Excised Copy. MDR release by CIA.http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB240/snie.pdf
451Etel Solingen, Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, Princeton, PrincetonUniversity Press,2007, p.208－209.
452Peter Pry, Israel’s Nuclear Arsenal, Boulder, Colorado and London, Westview Press,1984, p.22.
453Sylvia K. Crosbie, A Tacit Alliance: France and Israel from Suez to the Six Day War, Princeton University Press,Princeton, New Jersey,1974, p.115.
454Jeffrey T. Richelson, Spying on the Bomb: American Nuclear Intelligence from Nazi Germany to Iran and NorthKorea, W. W. Norton&Company, New York,2006, p.239.
455Peter Pry, Israel’s Nuclear Arsenal, Boulder, Colorado and London, Westview Press,1984, p.18.
456Sylvia K. Crosbie, A Tacit Alliance: France and Israel from Suez to the Six Day War, Princeton University Press,Princeton, New Jersey,1974, p.169.
457Peter Pry, Israel’s Nuclear Arsenal, Boulder, Colorado and London, Westview Press,1984, p.24-29.
458Jeffrey T. Richelson, Spying on the Bomb: American Nuclear Intelligence from Nazi Germany to Iran and NorthKorea, W. W. Norton&Company, New York,2006, p.241-242.
459Etel Solingen, Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, Princeton, PrincetonUniversity Press,2007, p.201.
460Avner Cohen, Israel and The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,1998, p.132.
461introduction “Amimut as a national nuclear bargain”, in Avner Cohen, The Worst-Kept Secret: Israel’s Bargainwith The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,2010, p.XXXII.
462Zeev Moaz, Defending the Holy Land: A Critical Analysis of Israel’s Security&Foreign Policy, The Universityof Michigan Press, Ann Arbor,2006, p306.
463Avner Cohen,“Peres: Peacemaker, Nuclear Pioneer”, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist, May/June,1996.
464"The Issues for Decision," n.d.[Early July1969]. Top Secret/Nodis/Sensitive. NPMP, NSCF, box604, Israel Vol II.
465Avner Cohen, The Worst-Kept Secret: Israel’s Bargain with The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,2010, p.86-87.
466有学者提出，1965年的“六日战争”正是以色列为了保全“核计划”而采取的预防性攻击行动。参见IsabellaGinor and Gideon Remez, Foxbats over Dimona: The Soviets’ Nuclear Gamble in the Six-Day War, New Haven andLondon, Yale University Press,2007; Thomas C. Reed and Danny B. Stillman, The Nuclear Express, A PoliticalHistory of the Bomb and Its Proliferation, Minneapolis, Zenith Press,2009, p.120.
467Theodore L. Eliot, State Department Executive Secretary, to Henry Kissinger,"Briefing Book-Visit of Mrs. GoldaMeir," September19,1969, enclosing "Background-Israel's Nuclear Weapon and Missile Programs." TopSecret/Nodis. Department of State Records, Subject-Numeric Files,1967-1969, Pol7Isr.
468Richardson to President,"Israel's Nuclear Program," with memorandum of conversation attached, August1,1969,Top Secret/Nodis. NPMP, NSCF, box604, Israel Vol II.
469Joseph J. Sisco to the Secretary,"Israel's Nuclear Policy and Implications for the United States," April3,1969.Secret/Nodis. Department of State Records,1967-1969, DEF12Isr. Or "The Issues for Decision," n.d.[Early July1969]. Top Secret/Nodis/Sensitive. NPMP, NSCF, box604, Israel Vol II.
470Joseph J. Sisco to the Secretary,"Israel's Nuclear Policy and Implications for the United States," April3,1969.Secret/Nodis. Department of State Records,1967-1969, DEF12Isr
471"The Issues for Decision," n.d.[Early July1969]. Top Secret/Nodis/Sensitive. NPMP, NSCF, box604, Israel Vol II.
472Sylvia K. Crosbie, A Tacit Alliance: France and Israel from Suez to the Six Day War, Princeton University Press,Princeton, New Jersey,1974, p.163.
473Michael Karpin, The Bomb in the Basement: How Israel Went Nuclear and What That Means for the World,New York, London, Sydney and Toronto, Simon&Schuster Paperbacks,2006, p.316.
474"The Issues for Decision," n.d.[Early July1969]. Top Secret/Nodis/Sensitive. NPMP, NSCF, box604, Israel Vol II.
475Department of State, Subject:“Indian Capability and Likelihood to Produce Atomic Energy”, June29,1961. Secret.Decimal File1960-1963, Central File of the Department of State, Record Group59, National Archives and RecordsAdministration (NARA).
476Office of Scientific Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency,“Indian Nuclear Energy Program”, February18,1958.Confidential. Freedom of Information Act Request.
477Office of Scientific Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency,“Indian Nuclear Energy Program”, February18,1958.Confidential. Freedom of Information Act Request.
478Department of State, Subject:“Indian Capability and Likelihood to Produce Atomic Energy”, June29,1961. Secret.Decimal File1960-1963, Central File of the Department of State, Record Group59, National Archives and RecordsAdministration (NARA).
479National Intelligence Estimate, NIE4-3-61,"Nuclear Weapons and Delivery Capabilities of Free World CountriesOther than the US and UK," September21,1961. Microfiche supplement to U.S. Department of State, ForeignRelations of the United States,1961-1963, Volume VII, Arms Control and Disarmament (Washington, D.C., U.S.Government Printing Office,1997)
480National Intelligence Estimate Number4-63,“Likelihood and Consequences of a Proliferation of Nuclear WeaponsSystems”, June28,1963, secret, excised copy. CIA FOIA appeal release.
481Central Intelligence Agency, Subject:“Indian Government Policy on Development of Nuclear Weapon”, October
24,1964.[Classification Redacted]. Freedom of Information Act Request.
482Office of Scientific Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency,“Indian Nuclear Energy Program”, November6,1964.Secret. Freedom of Information Act Request.
483Donald F. Chamberlain, Office of Scientific Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, to Charles E. Johnson,National Security Council, Subject:“The Indian Nuclear Weapons Capability”, October18,1965. Secret. Freedom ofInformation Act Request.
484Donald F. Chamberlain, Office of Scientific Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, to Charles E. Johnson,National Security Council, Subject:“The Indian Nuclear Weapons Capability”, October18,1965. Secret. Freedom ofInformation Act Request.
485Director of Central Intelligence, SNIE31-1-65,“India's Nuclear Weapons Policy”, October21,1965. Secret.Freedom of Information Act Request.
486Director of Central Intelligence, SNIE31-1-65,“India's Nuclear Weapons Policy”, October21,1965. Secret.Freedom of Information Act Request.
487Director of Central Intelligence, SNIE31-1-65,“India's Nuclear Weapons Policy”, October21,1965. Secret.Freedom of Information Act Request.
488NIE4-66,"The Likelihood of Further Nuclear Proliferation," January20,1966, Secret, excised copy. Lyndon B.Johnson Library, mandatory review release; currently under appeal.
489NIE4-66,"The Likelihood of Further Nuclear Proliferation," January20,1966, Secret, excised copy. Lyndon B.Johnson Library, mandatory review release; currently under appeal.
490State Department Telegram Regarding Estimated Cost of Indian Nuclear Weapon Program, May24,1966
(SECRET). Subject-Numeric File,1964-1966; Central Files of the Department of State, Record Group59; NationalArchives, Washington, D.C.
491State Department Telegram Regarding Estimated Cost of Indian Nuclear Weapon Program, May24,1966
(SECRET). Subject-Numeric File,1964-1966; Central Files of the Department of State, Record Group59; NationalArchives, Washington, D.C.
492Memorandum from the State Department, Ambassador at Large:“Indian Nuclear Weapons Capability,” January30,1965(SECRET). Subject-Numeric File,1964-1966; Central Files of the Department of State, Record Group59;National Archives, Washington, D.C.
493“核扩散委员会致总统的报告”，1965年1月21日，载周建明、王成至主编：《美国国家安全战略解密文献选编（1945－1972）》（第二册），社会科学文献出版社，北京，2010年出版，第675页。
494State Department Memorandum for the President:“NSC Meeting, June9,1966,” June7,1966(SECRET).Subject-Numeric File,1964-1966; Central Files of the Department of State, Record Group59; National Archives,Washington, D.C.
495State Department Memorandum for the President:“NSC Meeting, June9,1966,” June7,1966(SECRET).Subject-Numeric File,1964-1966; Central Files of the Department of State, Record Group59; National Archives,Washington, D.C.
496State Department Memorandum for the President:“NSC Meeting, June9,1966,” June7,1966(SECRET).Subject-Numeric File,1964-1966; Central Files of the Department of State, Record Group59; National Archives,Washington, D.C.
497State Department Memorandum for the President:“NSC Meeting, June9,1966,” June7,1966(SECRET).Subject-Numeric File,1964-1966; Central Files of the Department of State, Record Group59; National Archives,Washington, D.C.
498“犁头计划”是在1956－1957年由加州大学劳伦斯放射性实验室发起的一项国际核能合作项目，该项目旨在探索和平目的的核爆炸，并与“无核国家”共享这一技术。参见Sampooran Singh, India and The Nuclear Bomb,New Delhi, S. Chand&Co. Ltd, Ram Nagar,1971, p.165-166.
499State Department Memorandum for the President:“NSC Meeting, June9,1966,” June7,1966(SECRET).Subject-Numeric File,1964-1966; Central Files of the Department of State, Record Group59; National Archives,Washington, D.C.
500State Department Memorandum for the President:“NSC Meeting, June9,1966,” June7,1966(SECRET).Subject-Numeric File,1964-1966; Central Files of the Department of State, Record Group59; National Archives,Washington, D.C.
501Memorandum for the Secretary of Defense:“The Indian Nuclear Weapons Problem: Security Aspects,” January4,1967, attached to a Letter from Morton H. Halperin, Special Assistant to the Secretary of Defense, to Douglas Heck ofthe State Department (SECRET). Subject-Numeric File,1967-1969; Central Files of the Department of State, RecordGroup59; National Archives, Washington, D.C.
502Memorandum of Conversation from the State Department:“Non-Proliferation Treaty; Assurances to Non NuclearPowers; Latin American Nuclear Free Zone,” June23,1967(Secret). Subject-Numeric File,1967-1969; Central Filesof the Department of State, Record Group59; National Archives, Washington, D.C.
503Jeffrey T. Richelson, Spying on the Bomb: American Nuclear Intelligence from Nazi Germany to Iran and NorthKorea, W. W. Norton&Company, New York,2006, p.230.
504U.S. Embassy New Delhi Airgram A-540to Department of State,"Canadians Warn GOI on NPT,"12December1967, Secret. National Archives, Record Group59, Records of the Department of State,1967-1969Subject-NumericFiles, DEF18-6.
505U.S. Embassy New Delhi Airgram A-540to Department of State,"Canadians Warn GOI on NPT,"12December1967, Secret. National Archives, Record Group59, Records of the Department of State,1967-1969Subject-NumericFiles, DEF18-6.
506U.S. Mission to Geneva Cable3048to State Department,3April1968, Secret. National Archives, Record Group59,Records of the Department of State,1967-1969Subject-Numeric Files, DEF18-6.
507Ernest W. Lefever, Nuclear Arms in the Third World: U.S. Policy Dilemma, Washington, Brookings Institution,1979, p.25.
508Ernest W. Lefever, Nuclear Arms in the Third World: U.S. Policy Dilemma, Washington, Brookings Institution,1979, p.25.
509Written Answers by Prime Minister Mrs. Indira Gandhi in the Lok Sabha,15November1972, J. P. Jain edited,Nuclear India, Vol.II, New Delhi, Radiant Publishers,1974, p.327.
510State Department cable3088to Embassy New Delhi,6January1972, Secret. U.S. National Archives, RecordGroup59, Subject-Numeric Files1970-1973[hereinafter RG59, SN70-73] Def12-1India.
511U.S. Embassy Airgram A-20to State Department,"India's Nuclear Intentions,"21January1972, Secret, Excisedcopy. RG59, SN70-73, Def18-8India.
512U.S. Embassy Airgram A-20to State Department,"India's Nuclear Intentions,"21January1972, Secret, Excisedcopy. RG59, SN70-73, Def18-8India.
513U.S. Embassy Airgram A-20to State Department,"India's Nuclear Intentions,"21January1972, Secret, Excisedcopy. RG59, SN70-73, Def18-8India.
514State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research Intelligence Note,"India to Go Nuclear?"14January1972,Secret. RG59, SN70-73, Def18-8India.
515State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research Intelligence Note,"India to Go Nuclear?"14January1972,Secret. RG59, SN70-73, Def18-8India.
516State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research Intelligence Note,"India to Go Nuclear?"14January1972,Secret. RG59, SN70-73, Def18-8India.
517Memorandum from Ray Cline, Director, Bureau of Intelligence and Research, to Director of Central IntelligenceRichard Helms, enclosing "Possibility of an Indian Nuclear Test,"23February1972, Secret. U.S. State Department,Foreign Relations of the United States,1969-1976Volume E-7, Documents on South Asia,1969-1972, Document228.
518Memorandum from Ray Cline, Director, Bureau of Intelligence and Research, to Director of Central IntelligenceRichard Helms, enclosing "Possibility of an Indian Nuclear Test,"23February1972, Secret. U.S. State Department,Foreign Relations of the United States,1969-1976Volume E-7, Documents on South Asia,1969-1972, Document228.
519Request for a NSSM, Henry Kissinger to President Nixon,"Proposed NSSM on the Implications of an IndianNuclear Test," n.d., with cover memorandum from Richard T. Kennedy,4July1972, Secret. Nixon Presidential Library,National Security Council Institutional Files, box H-192, NSSM-156[1of2].
520Request for a NSSM, Henry Kissinger to President Nixon,"Proposed NSSM on the Implications of an IndianNuclear Test," n.d., with cover memorandum from Richard T. Kennedy,4July1972, Secret. Nixon Presidential Library,National Security Council Institutional Files, box H-192, NSSM-156[1of2].
521Special National Intelligence Estimate31-72,"Indian Nuclear Developments and their Likely Implications",3August1972, Secret. Foreign Relations of the United States,1969-1976Volume E-7, Documents on South Asia,1969-1972, Document298.
522Special National Intelligence Estimate31-72,"Indian Nuclear Developments and their Likely Implications",3August1972, Secret. Foreign Relations of the United States,1969-1976Volume E-7, Documents on South Asia,1969-1972, Document298.
523H. Daniel Brewster to Herman Pollack,"Indian Nuclear Developments,"16January1973, enclosing "Summary,"1September1972, Secret. RG59, SN70-73, AE6India.
524H. Daniel Brewster to Herman Pollack,"Indian Nuclear Developments,"16January1973, enclosing "Summary,"1September1972, Secret. RG59, SN70-73, AE6India.
525U.S. Embassy India cable5797to State Department forwarding Bombay consulate cable983,"India's NuclearPosition,"17May1973, Confidential. AAD1973.
526Jeffrey T. Richelson, Spying on the Bomb: American Nuclear Intelligence from Nazi Germany to Iran and NorthKorea, W. W. Norton&Company, New York,2006, p.232.
527"The Likelihood of an Early Test [at] a Lower Level than Previous Years", U.S. Embassy India cable0743to StateDepartment,"India's Nuclear Intentions,"18January1974, Confidential.http://static.history.state.gov/frus/frus1969-76ve08/pdf/d156.pdf
528Statement by U.S. Reprehensive Martin in the CCD,21May1974, in J. P. Jain edited, Nuclear India, Vol.II, NewDelhi, Radiant Publishers,1974, p.343.
529Department of State,“Assessment of Indian Nuclear Test”, June5,1974. Secret. Freedom of Information ActRequest.
530Bureau of Intelligence and Research Intelligence Note:“India: Uncertainty over Nuclear Policy,” June13,1974
(CONFIDENTIAL). Declassified in response to a Freedom of Information Act request.
531Ernest W. Lefever, Nuclear Arms in the Third World: U.S. Policy Dilemma, Washington, Brookings Institution,1979, p.36.
532Leonard S. Spector, Nuclear Proliferation Today, New York, Vintage Books,1984, p.36.
533Ernest W. Lefever, Nuclear Arms in the Third World: U.S. Policy Dilemma, Washington, Brookings Institution,1979, p.36-37.
534Special National Intelligence Estimate4-1-74,"Prospects for Further Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,"23August1974, Top Secret, Excised Copy. MDR release by CIA.http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB240/snie.pdf
535Special National Intelligence Estimate4-1-74,"Prospects for Further Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,"23August1974, Top Secret, Excised Copy. MDR release by CIA.http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB240/snie.pdf
536Daniel O. Graham, Memorandum for: Director, Defense Intelligence Agency [and others], Subject:“ForthcomingCommunity Post-Mortem Report Concerning the Indian Nuclear Detonation”, May24,1974. Secret. CIA RecordsSearch Tool (CREST), National Archives and Records Administration (NARA), College Park, Md.
537Intelligence Community Staff, Post Mortem Report,“An Examination of the Intelligence Community'sPerformance Before the Indian Nuclear Test of May1974”, July1974, Top Secret, Excised copy. Mandatory reviewrequest; release by ISCAP.
538Intelligence Community Staff, Post Mortem Report,“An Examination of the Intelligence Community'sPerformance Before the Indian Nuclear Test of May1974”, July1974, Top Secret, Excised copy. Mandatory reviewrequest; release by ISCAP.
539Chief Product Review Division/Intelligence Community Staff, Memorandum for:[Redacted], Subject:“ICResponses to Post-Mortem Recommendations”, January15,1975. Secret. CREST, NARA, College Park, Md.
540Special National Intelligence Estimate31-72,"Indian Nuclear Developments and their Likely Implications",3August1972, Secret. Foreign Relations of the United States,1969-1976Volume E-7, Documents on South Asia,1969-1972, Document298.
541Special National Intelligence Estimate31-72,"Indian Nuclear Developments and their Likely Implications",3August1972, Secret. Foreign Relations of the United States,1969-1976Volume E-7, Documents on South Asia,1969-1972, Document298.
542Department of State,“Assessment of Indian Nuclear Test”, June5,1974. Secret. Freedom of Information ActRequest.
543Director of Central Intelligence, SNIE31-1-65,“India's Nuclear Weapons Policy”, October21,1965. Secret.Freedom of Information Act Request.
544Special National Intelligence Estimate31-72,"Indian Nuclear Developments and their Likely Implications",3August1972, Secret. Foreign Relations of the United States,1969-1976Volume E-7, Documents on South Asia,1969-1972, Document298.
545State Department cable40378to U.S. Embassy Ottawa,"Indian Nuclear Intentions,"9March1972, Secret. RG59,SN70-73, AE1India.
546State Department cable50634to U.S. Embassy Canada,"Indian Nuclear Intentions,"24March1972, Secret. RG
59, SN70-73, AE1India.
547Memorandum of Conversation,"Indian Nuclear Developments,"21September1972, Secret. RG59, SN70-73, Def
12India.
548H. Daniel Brewster to Herman Pollack,"Indian Nuclear Developments,"16January1973, enclosing "Summary,"1September1972, Secret. RG59, SN70-73, AE6India.
549Special National Intelligence Estimate31-72,"Indian Nuclear Developments and their Likely Implications",3August1972, Secret. Foreign Relations of the United States,1969-1976Volume E-7, Documents on South Asia,1969-1972, Document298.
550Memorandum of Conversation,"Indian Nuclear Developments,"21September1972, Secret. RG59, SN70-73, Def
12India.
551H. Daniel Brewster to Herman Pollack,"Indian Nuclear Developments,"16January1973, enclosing "Summary,"1September1972, Secret. RG59, SN70-73, AE6India.
552Request for a NSSM, Henry Kissinger to President Nixon,"Proposed NSSM on the Implications of an IndianNuclear Test," n.d., with cover memorandum from Richard T. Kennedy,4July1972, Secret. Nixon Presidential Library,National Security Council Institutional Files, box H-192, NSSM-156[1of2].
553H. Daniel Brewster to Herman Pollack,"Indian Nuclear Developments,"16January1973, enclosing "Summary,"1September1972, Secret. RG59, SN70-73, AE6India.
554（印）克拉简德拉辛格著，周水玉、李淼译：《印度洋的政治》，商务印书馆，北京，1980年出版，第108－109页。
555（美）亨利·基辛格著，杨静予等译：《白宫岁月》（第3册），世界知识出版社，北京，2003年出版，第1087页。
557（印）因德尔马尔豪特拉著，施美华等译：《英迪拉甘地传》，世界知识出版社，北京，1992年出版，第
144页。
558（美）亨利·基辛格著，杨静予等译：《白宫岁月》（第3册），世界知识出版社，北京，2003年出版，第985－986页。
559指根据美国公共法第480款所提供的对外援助项目，该项目主要是向印度提供食物方面的长期援助。
560Special National Intelligence Estimate31-72,"Indian Nuclear Developments and their Likely Implications",3August1972, Secret. Foreign Relations of the United States,1969-1976Volume E-7, Documents on South Asia,1969-1972, Document298.
561Steve Weissman and Herbert Krosney, The Islamic Bomb: the Nuclear Threat to Israel and the Middle East, NewYork, Times Books,1981, p.131.
562Steve Weissman and Herbert Krosney, The Islamic Bomb: the Nuclear Threat to Israel and the Middle East, NewYork, Times Books,1981, p.134.
563（美）亨利·基辛格著，杨静予等译：《白宫岁月》（第3册），世界知识出版社，北京，2003年出版，第1086页。
565前引书，第1118页。
566Leonard S. Spector, Nuclear Proliferation Today, New York, Vintage Books,1984, p.37.
567（美）亨利·基辛格著，刘丽嫒等译：《动乱年代：基辛格回忆录》（第3册），世界知识出版社，北京，1983年出版。第366－368页。
568Request for a NSSM, Henry Kissinger to President Nixon,"Proposed NSSM on the Implications of an IndianNuclear Test," n.d., with cover memorandum from Richard T. Kennedy,4July1972, Secret. Nixon Presidential Library,National Security Council Institutional Files, box H-192, NSSM-156[1of2]
569J. P. Jain, Nuclear India, Vol.I, New Delhi, Radiant Publishers,1974, p.144.
570（美）理查德·尼克松著，裘克安等译：《尼克松回忆录》（中册），世界知识出版社，北京，2001年出版，第630－631页。
571（美）亨利·基辛格著，杨静予等译：《白宫岁月》（第3册），世界知识出版社，北京，2003年出版，第1166页。
572（美）理查德·尼克松著，伍任等译：《尼克松回忆录》（上册），世界知识出版社，北京，2001年出版，第158页。
573（美）理查德·尼克松著，裘克安等译：《尼克松回忆录》（中册），世界知识出版社，北京，2001年出版，第637页。
574（美）理查德·尼克松著，施燕华等译：《领袖们》，海南出版社，海口，2008年出版，第254页。
575（美）亨利·基辛格著，杨静予等译：《白宫岁月》（第3册），世界知识出版社，北京，2003年出版，第1085－1086页。
576（美）亨利·基辛格著，杨静予等译：《白宫岁月》（第3册），世界知识出版社，北京，2003年出版，第1121－1125页。
577Shyam Bhatia, India’s Nuclear Bomb, New Delhi, Vikas Publishing House, p.70-71.
578祁学远编著，《世界有核国家的核力量与核政策》，军事科学出版社，北京，1991年出版，第156页。
579Donald F. Chamberlain, Office of Scientific Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, to Charles E. Johnson,National Security Council, Subject:“The Indian Nuclear Weapons Capability”, October18,1965. Secret. Freedom ofInformation Act Request.
580Director of Central Intelligence, SNIE31-1-65,“India's Nuclear Weapons Policy”, October21,1965. Secret.Source: Freedom of Information Act Request.
581Special National Intelligence Estimate31-72,"Indian Nuclear Developments and their Likely Implications",3August1972, Secret. Foreign Relations of the United States,1969-1976Volume E-7, Documents on South Asia,1969-1972, Document298.
582Special National Intelligence Estimate31-72,"Indian Nuclear Developments and their Likely Implications",3August1972, Secret. Foreign Relations of the United States,1969-1976Volume E-7, Documents on South Asia,1969-1972, Document298.
583Thomas C. Reed and Danny B. Stillman, The Nuclear Express, A Political History of the Bomb and ItsProliferation, Minneapolis, Zenith Press,2009, p.159.
584赵干城著：《印度大国地位与大国外交》，上海人民出版社，上海，2009年出版，第92页。
585顾德欣、牛永军主编：《核幽灵的震荡：二十世纪核问题回顾与思考》，国防大学出版社，北京，1999年出版，第127页；或参见曹永胜、罗健、王京地著：《南亚大象：印度军事战略发展与现状》，解放军出版社，北京，2002年出版，第172－173页；Steve Weissman and Herbert Krosney, The Islamic Bomb: the Nuclear Threat toIsrael and the Middle East, New York, Times Books,1981, p.131-132.
586Jacques E. C. Hymans, The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation: Identity, Emotions and Foreign Policy,Cambridge, Cambridge University Press,2006, p.176-177.
587Praful Bidwai and Achin Vanaik, New Nukes: India, Pakistan and Global Nuclear Disarmament, New York,Olive Branch Press,2000, p.57.
588（美）斯蒂芬柯亨著，刘满贵等译：《大象与孔雀：解读印度大战略》，新华出版社，北京，2002年出版，第172页。
590Leonard S. Spector, Nuclear Proliferation Today, New York, Vintage Books,1984, p.27.
591Broadcast by H. J. Bhabha over All India Radio on United Nations Day,24October1964, J. P. Jain edited, NuclearIndia, Vol.II, New Delhi, Radiant Publishers,1974, p.158-161.
592Broadcast by H. J. Bhabha over All India Radio on United Nations Day,24October1964, J. P. Jain edited, NuclearIndia, Vol.II, New Delhi, Radiant Publishers,1974, p.158-161.
593关于这一时期印度核辩论的分析，可参见（美）斯蒂芬柯亨著，刘满贵等译：《大象与孔雀：解读印度大战略》，新华出版社，北京，2002年出版，第169－176页； Sampooran Singh, India and The Nuclear Bomb, New
594赵干城著：《印度大国地位与大国外交》，上海人民出版社，上海，2009年出版，第93页。
595（美）斯蒂芬柯亨著，刘满贵等译：《大象与孔雀：解读印度大战略》，新华出版社，北京，2002年出版，第169页。
596Director of Central Intelligence, SNIE31-1-65,“India's Nuclear Weapons Policy”, October21,1965. Secret.Source: Freedom of Information Act Request.
597Special National Intelligence Estimate31-72,"Indian Nuclear Developments and their Likely Implications",3August1972, Secret. Foreign Relations of the United States,1969-1976Volume E-7, Documents on South Asia,1969-1972, Document298.
598（美）斯蒂芬柯亨著，刘满贵等译：《大象与孔雀：解读印度大战略》，新华出版社，北京，2002年出版，第46页。
599Shelton L. Williams, The U.S., India, and The Bomb, Baltimore, The John Hopkins Press,1969, p.29.
600NIE4-67,"Proliferation of Missile Delivery Systems for Nuclear Weapons,"26January1967, secret, excised copy,as released under appeal, March2005. Lyndon B. Johnson Library, National Security Files, National IntelligenceEstimates, box1,4Arms and Disarmament.
601Jacques E. C. Hymans, The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation: Identity, Emotions and Foreign Policy,Cambridge, Cambridge University Press,2006, p.181-180.
602（美）麦乔治·邦迪著，褚广友等译：《美国核战略》，世界知识出版社，北京，1991年出版，第693页。雷蒙德加特霍夫同样把1974年印度核试验归因于美国1971年支持巴基斯坦的政策，参见Raymond L. Garthoff,Détente and Confrontation: American-Soviet Relations from Nixon to Reagon, Washington,1985, p.286.
603Ernest W. Lefever, Nuclear Arms in the Third World: U.S. Policy Dilemma, Washington, Brookings Institution,1979, p.33.
604（美）斯蒂芬柯亨著，刘满贵等译：《大象与孔雀：解读印度大战略》，新华出版社，北京，2002年出版，第152-153页。
605赵干城著：《印度大国地位与大国外交》，上海人民出版社，上海，2009年出版，第101页。
606"A Concerted Effort by India to Conceal Preparations May Well Succeed" State Department Bureau of Intelligenceand Research Intelligence Note,"India to Go Nuclear?"14January1972, Secret. RG59, SN70-73, Def18-8India.
607Leonard S. Spector, Nuclear Proliferation Today, New York, Vintage Books,1984, p.28.
608Leonard S. Spector, Nuclear Proliferation Today, New York, Vintage Books,1984, p.28.
609Statement by the Indian Representative Azim Husain at the Conference of Non-Nuclear Weapons States,12September1968, in J. P. Jain edited, Nuclear India, Vol.II, New Delhi, Radiant Publishers,1974, p.211-213.
610赵干城著：《印度大国地位与大国外交》，上海人民出版社，上海，2009年出版，第96页。
611Special National Intelligence Estimate4-1-74,"Prospects for Further Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,"23August1974, Top Secret, Excised Copy. MDR release by CIA.
612Ernest W. Lefever, Nuclear Arms in the Third World: U.S. Policy Dilemma, Washington, Brookings Institution,1979, p.33.
613Leonard S. Spector, Nuclear Proliferation Today, New York, Vintage Books,1984, p.28.
614Thomas C. Reed and Danny B. Stillman, The Nuclear Express, A Political History of the Bomb and ItsProliferation, Minneapolis, Zenith Press,2009, p.159.
615George Perkovich, India’s Nuclear Bomb: The Impact on Global Proliferation, Berkeley, Los Angeles andLondon, University of California Press,1999, p.171-172.
616（美）斯蒂芬柯亨著，刘满贵等译：《大象与孔雀：解读印度大战略》，新华出版社，北京，2002年出版，第142页。
617Ernest W. Lefever, Nuclear Arms in the Third World: U.S. Policy Dilemma, Washington, Brookings Institution,1979, p.33.
618U.S. Embassy India cable6598to State Department,"India's Nuclear Explosion: Why Now?"18May1974, Secret.AAD.
619U.S. Embassy India cable6598to State Department,"India's Nuclear Explosion: Why Now?"18May1974, Secret.AAD.
620（印）因德尔马尔豪特拉著，施美华等译：《英迪拉甘地传》，世界知识出版社，北京，1992年出版，第171页。
621Bureau of Intelligence and Research Intelligence Note:“India: Uncertainty over Nuclear Policy,” June13,1974(CONFIDENTIAL). Declassified in response to a Freedom of Information Act request.
622Jacques E. C. Hymans, The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation: Identity, Emotions and Foreign Policy,Cambridge, Cambridge University Press,2006, p.188.
624参见Ram Nath Singh, India: The Sixth Nuclear Power, A Comparative Account of Her Potential Nuclear Power,Patna, Chintamani Prakashan,1978.
625Director of Central Intelligence, SNIE31-1-65,“India's Nuclear Weapons Policy”, October21,1965. Secret.Source: Freedom of Information Act Request.
626这三个利益分别是：限制拥有核能力国家的数量；一个稳定的南亚；和印度发展令双方满意的关系。参见H. Daniel Brewster to Herman Pollack,"Indian Nuclear Developments,"16January1973, enclosing "Summary,"1September1972, Secret. RG59, SN70-73, AE6India.
627U.S. Embassy India cable0743to State Department,"India's Nuclear Intentions,"18January1974, Confidential.http://static.history.state.gov/frus/frus1969-76ve08/pdf/d156.pdf
628赵恒著：《印度核试验的历史分析》，安徽大学出版社，合肥，2007年出版，第114页。
629Ernest W. Lefever, Nuclear Arms in the Third World: U.S. Policy Dilemma, Washington, Brookings Institution,1979, p.36.
630Department of State,“Assessment of Indian Nuclear Test”, June5,1974. Secret. Freedom of Information ActRequest.
631Special National Intelligence Estimate4-1-74,"Prospects for Further Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons",23August1974, Top Secret, Excised Copy. MDR release by CIA.http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB240/snie.pdf
632Steve Weissman and Herbert Krosney, The Islamic Bomb: The Nuclear Threat to Israel and the Middle East,New York and Toronto, Times Book,1982, p.132-133.
633Leonard S. Spector, Nuclear Proliferation Today, New York, Vintage Books,1984, p.29-30.
634Special National Intelligence Estimate31-72,"Indian Nuclear Developments and their Likely Implications",3August1972, Secret. Foreign Relations of the United States,1969-1976Volume E-7, Documents on South Asia,1969-1972, Document298.
635Richardson to President,"Israel's Nuclear Program," with memorandum of conversation attached, August1,1969,Top Secret/Nodis. NPMP, NSCF, box604, Israel Vol II.
636Special National Intelligence Estimate31-72,"Indian Nuclear Developments and their Likely Implications",3August1972, Secret. Foreign Relations of the United States,1969-1976Volume E-7, Documents on South Asia,1969-1972, Document298.
637Steve Weissman and Herbert Krosney, The Islamic Bomb: the Nuclear Threat to Israel and the Middle East, NewYork, Times Books,1981, p.134.
638（美）詹姆斯·多尔蒂、小罗伯特·普法尔茨格拉夫著，阎学通等译：《争论中的国际关系理论》（第五版），世界知识出版社，北京，2003年出版，第644页。
639Request for a NSSM, Henry Kissinger to President Nixon,"Proposed NSSM on the Implications of an IndianNuclear Test," n.d., with cover memorandum from Richard T. Kennedy,4July1972, Secret. Nixon Presidential Library,National Security Council Institutional Files, box H-192, NSSM-156[1of2]
640Theodore L. Eliot, State Department Executive Secretary, to Henry Kissinger,"Briefing Book-Visit of Mrs. GoldaMeir," September19,1969, enclosing "Background-Israel's Nuclear Weapon and Missile Programs." TopSecret/Nodis. SN67-69, Pol7Isr.
641Robert Dallek, Nixon and Kissinger: Partners in Power, New York, Harper Collins Publishers,2007, p.176.
642Francis J. Gavin,“Nuclear Nixon: Ironies, Puzzles, and the Triumph of Realpolitik”, Fredrik Logevall and AndrewPreston edited, Nixon in the World, American Foreign Relations:1969-1977, Oxford, Oxford University Press,2008,p.128.
643（美）麦乔治·邦迪著，褚广友等译：《美国核战略》，世界知识出版社，北京，1991年出版，第690-691页。
644U.S. Embassy Taiwan cable6272to State Department,"ROC's Nuclear Intentions: Conversation with PremierChiang Ching-kuo,"15September1976, Secret Nodis.
645（美）理查德·尼克松著，刘炳章等译：《角斗场上：尼克松回忆录》，新华出版社，北京，1990年出版，第395页。
646Memorandum for the Secretary of Defense:“The Indian Nuclear Weapons Problem: Security Aspects,” January4,1967, attached to a Letter from Morton H. Halperin, Special Assistant to the Secretary of Defense, to Douglas Heck ofthe State Department (SECRET). Subject-Numeric File,1967-1969; Central Files of the Department of State, RecordGroup59; National Archives, Washington, D.C.
647（美）麦乔治·邦迪著，褚广友等译：《美国核战略》，世界知识出版社，北京，1991年出版，第691页。
648（美）亨利基辛格著，国际关系研究所编译室译：《选择的必要：美国外交政策的前景》，世界知识出版社，1962年出版，北京，第258页。
649（美）西摩·赫什著，吴聿衡等译：《权力的代价：尼克松执政时期的基辛格》，国际文化出版公司，北京，1991年出版，第191页。
650Francis J. Gavin,“Nuclear Nixon: Ironies, Puzzles, and the Triumph of Realpolitik”, Fredrik Logevall and AndrewPreston edited, Nixon in the World, American Foreign Relations:1969-1977, Oxford, Oxford University Press,2008,p.139.
651（美）约翰J米尔斯海默、斯蒂芬M沃尔特著，王传兴译：《以色列游说集团与美国对外政策》，上海人民出版社，上海，2009年出版，第92页。
652Avner Cohen, Israel and The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,1998, p.4-5.
653Leonard S. Spector, Nuclear Proliferation Today, New York, Vintage Books,1984, p.37.
654Francis J. Gavin,“Nuclear Nixon: Ironies, Puzzles, and the Triumph of Realpolitik”, Fredrik Logevall and AndrewPreston edited, Nixon in the World, American Foreign Relations:1969-1977, Oxford, Oxford University Press,2008,p.140.
655Francis J. Gavin,“Nuclear Nixon: Ironies, Puzzles, and the Triumph of Realpolitik”, Fredrik Logevall and AndrewPreston edited, Nixon in the World, American Foreign Relations:1969-1977, Oxford, Oxford University Press,2008,p.127-128.
656国际原子能机构前总干事穆罕默德巴拉迪指出：伊拉克战争是一场“没有必要的战争”，美英在2001年的911后就已经确定了进攻伊拉克的计划，所谓“伊拉克拥有大规模杀伤性武器”只是一个子虚乌有的谎言。而利比亚早在2004年前后也已经放弃了核武器计划，并主动要求国际原子能机构进行核查。参见（埃及）穆罕默德巴拉迪著，蒋宗强译：《谎言与交锋，揭秘全球核较量的真实世界》，中信出版社，北京，2011年。
657Avner Cohen, Israel and The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,1998, p.193.
658（美）麦乔治·邦迪著，褚广友等译：《美国核战略》，世界知识出版社，北京，1991年出版，第692页。
659H. Daniel Brewster to Herman Pollack,"Indian Nuclear Developments,"16January1973, enclosing "Summary,"1September1972, Secret. RG59, SN70-73, AE6India.
660所谓“双重标准”，主要是认为美国对敌对友采取了完全不同的政策。如果是完全采用“双重标准”的话，美国不应当反对作为其盟友的英国、法国、以色列，乃至台湾发展核武器，但事实上并非如此。尽管近年来有人提出了“好的核扩散”与“坏的核扩散”的区分，但在实践中并未得到实际执行。关于“双重标准”问题的探讨，可参见赵恒著：《核不扩散机制：历史与理论》，世界知识出版社，北京，2009年出版，第331－342页；路自平编著：《核武器与核战略》，兵器工业出版社，北京，2009年出版，第190页，等等。
661（美）斯蒂芬柯亨著，刘满贵等译：《大象与孔雀：解读印度大战略》，新华出版社，北京，2002年出版，第303-304页。
662Entel Solingen,“The Political Economy of Nuclear Restraint, International Security”, Fall1994(19), p.126-169;或参见Etel Solingen, Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, Princeton, PrincetonUniversity Press,2007, p.276-277.
1. Office of the Historian Bureau of Public Affairs U.S. Department of State,Foreign Relations of United States (FRUS),1969-1976, Washington, D.C.Volume I，Foundations of Foreign Policy,1969-1972；Volume E-2，Documents on Arms Control and Nonproliferation,1969-1972；Volume E-7，Documents on South Asia,1969-1972；Volume E-8，Volume E-8, Documents on South Asia,1973-1976；
2. The Gelman Library, George Washington University，The National SecurityArchives(NSA), Washington, DC.William Burr edited, The Nixon Administration and the Indian Nuclear Program:1972-1974, National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No.367, December5,2011. http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/nukevault/ebb367/index.htmWilliam Burr and Jeffrey Richelson Edited，In1974Estimate, CIA Found thatIsrael Already Had a Nuclear Stockpile and that "Many Countries" Would Soon HaveNuclear Capabilities, National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No.240,January14,2008. http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB240/index.htm"The Impulse towards a Safer World":40th Anniversary of the NuclearNonproliferation Treaty, Washington, D.C., July1,2008.http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/nukevault/ebb253/index.htmWilliam Burr Edited，Special Collection: Some Key Documents on Nuclear PolicyIssues,1945-1990, June15,2007.http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/nukevault/special/index.htmWilliam Burr Edited，U.S. Opposed Taiwanese Bomb during1970s, NationalSecurity Archive Electronic Briefing Book No.221, June15,2007.http://www.gwu.edu/%7Ensarchiv/nukevault/ebb221/index.htmAvner Cohen, Israel Crosses the Threshold, National Security Archive ElectronicBriefing Book No.189,April28,2006.http://www.gwu.edu/%7Ensarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB189/index.htmJeffrey Richelson Edited, U.S. Intelligence and the Indian Bomb, National SecurityArchive Electronic Briefing Book No.187, April13,2006.http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB187/index.htmJoyce Battle edited, India and Pakistan: On the Nuclear Threshold, NationalSecurity Archive Electronic Briefing Book No.6, April13,2006.http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB6/index.htmlWilliam Burr Edited，National Intelligence Estimates of the Nuclear ProliferationProblem: The First Ten Years,1957-1967, National Security Archive Electronic BriefingBook No.155, June1,2005.http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB155/index.htmJeffrey Richelson, William Burr and Thomas Blanton Edited, Dubious Secrets,National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No.90, May21,2003.http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB90/index.htmWilliam Burr Edited，New Archival Evidence on Taiwanese "Nuclear Intentions",1966-1976，National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No.19, October13,1999. http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB20/
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1.张曙光、周建明编译：《中美解冻与台湾问题：尼克松外交文献选编》，香港中文大学出版社，香港，2008年出版。
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7.（美）亨利·基辛格著，张志明等译：《动乱年代：基辛格回忆录》（1－3册），世界知识出版社，北京，1983年出版。
8.（美）沃尔特·艾萨克森著，刘汉生等译：《基辛格：大国博弈的背后》，国际文化出版公司，北京，2008年出版。
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11.（美）德怀特D艾森豪威尔著，樊迪、静海等译：《艾森豪威尔回忆录》（卷二），东方出版社，北京，2007年出版。
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18.（印）因德尔马尔豪特拉著，施美华等译：《英迪拉甘地传》，世界知识出版社，北京，1992年出版。
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1、（美）汉斯·摩根索著，肯尼斯·汤普森改写，李晖、孙芳译：《国家间政治：为了权力与和平的斗争》，海南出版社，海口，2008年出版。
2、（美）詹姆斯·多尔蒂、小罗伯特·普法尔茨格拉夫著，阎学通等译：《争论中的国际关系理论》（第五版），世界知识出版社，北京，2003年出版。
3、（美）肯尼斯沃尔兹著，张睿壮、刘丰译：《现实主义与国际政治》，北京大学出版社，北京，2012年出版。
4、(美)小约瑟夫·奈著，张小明译：《理解国际冲突：理论与历史》，上海人民出版社，上海，2002年出版。
5、（美）罗伯特·杰维斯著，秦亚青译：《国际政治中的知觉与错误知觉》，世界知识出版社，北京，2003年出版。
6、（加）罗伯特杰克逊、（丹）乔格索伦森著，吴勇、宋德星译：《国际关系学理论与方法》，天津人民出版社，天津，2008年出版。
7、（美）彼得·卡赞斯坦主编，宋伟、刘铁娃译：《国家安全的文化》，北京大学出版社，北京，2009年出版。
8、（美）伯纳德布罗迪等著，于永安、郭莹译：《绝对武器》，解放军出版社，北京，2005年出版。
9、（法）夏尔－菲利普戴维、路易巴尔塔扎、于斯丹瓦伊斯著，钟震宇译：《美国对外政策：基础、主体与形成》，社会科学文献出版社，北京，2011年出版。
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13、（美）雷蒙德加特霍夫著，伍牛、王薇译：《冷战史：遏制与共存备忘录》，新华出版社，北京，2003年出版。
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18、（美）亨利·基辛格著，国际关系研究所编译室译：《选择的必要：美国外交政策的前景》，世界知识出版社，北京，1962年出版。
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39、姜振飞著：《美国约翰逊政府与国际核不扩散机制》，中国社会科学出版社，北京，2008年出版。
40、滕建群著：《美国防扩散与反扩散政策研究》，军事谊文出版社，北京，2011年出版。
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15Frederick Williams,“The United States Congress and Nonproliferation”, International Security, Vol.3, No.2(Autumn,1978).
16George Quester, The Politics of Nuclear Proliferation, Baltimore and London, The John Hopkins University Press,1973, p.25-28.
17Michael J. Brenner, Nuclear Power and Non-Proliferation: The Remaking of U.S. Policy, London, New York andSydney, Cambridge University Press,1981, p.20.
18Joseph S. Nye,“Sustaining Non-proliferation in the1980s”, James A. Schear edited, Nuclear WeaponsProliferation and Nuclear Risk, Gower,1984, p.105-107.
19Avner Cohen and William Burr,“Israel Cross the Threshold”, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May/June2006.
20Michael Karpin, The Bomb in the Basement: How Israel Went Nuclear and What That Means for the World, NewYork, London and Sydney, Simon&Schuster Paperbacks,2006, p.316.
21朱明权：“防止核扩散:美国的出口控制机制及其局限”，载《复旦学报》1993年第4期。
22赵伟明：“美国的核不扩散政策”，载《国际观察》2001年第5期。
23夏立平：“论美国反核扩散战略与防扩散政策”，载《国际问题研究》2008年第1期。
24樊吉社：“防控非国家行为体核扩散:美国的评估与政策”，载《国际政治研究》2007年第3期。
25赵品宇：“浅析美国核不扩散政策的深层悖论———以美印核关系为案例”,《国际论坛》2008年第1期。
26沈丁立：“核扩散与国际安全”，载《世界经济与政治》2008年第2期。
27（法）马克·布洛赫著，张和声等译：《历史学家的技艺》，上海社会科学院1992年版，上海，第66页。
28朱明权：《核扩散：危险与防止》前言，上海科技文献出版社，上海，1995年版。
29《国际条约集（1966－1968）》，商务印书馆，北京，1978年版，第623－624页。
30Office of Technology Assessment, Congress of the United States, Nuclear Proliferation and Safeguards, New York,1977, p.6.
31李彬：《军备控制理论与分析》，国防工业出版社，2006年版，北京，第6页。
32关于“冷战转型”问题的探讨，可参见下文第二章第二节。
33阎学通、孙学峰著：《国际关系研究实用方法》，人民出版社，北京，2001年出版，第18页。
34（加）罗伯特杰克逊、（丹）乔格索伦森著，吴勇、宋德星译：《国际关系学理论与方法》，天津人民出版社，天津，2008年出版，第301页。
35张曙光：“冷战国际史与国际关系理论的链接———构建中国国际关系研究体系的路径探索”，《世界经济与政治》2007年第2期。
36张曙光：“浅谈美国外交文献的利用”，载《美国研究》2006年第4期。
37Zaki Shalom, Israel Nuclear Option: Behind the Scenes Diplomacy between Dimona and Washington, Brightonand Portland, Sussex Academic Press,2005.
38转引自王逸舟著：《西方国际政治学：历史与理论》，上海人民出版社，上海，1998年出版，第53页。
39韩莉著：《新外交，旧世界：伍德罗威尔逊与国际联盟》，同心出版社，北京，2002年出版，第284、290页。
40Jonathan Schell, The Fate of the Earth and The Abolition, Stanford, California, Stanford University Press,2000,p.183-184,223.
41保罗尼采（又译为“保罗尼兹”）曾担任美国国务院政策规划署负责人，是美国国家安全委员会68号文件
（NSC-68）的主要起草人。引自Jonathan Schell, Introduction of The Fate of the Earth and The Abolition, Stanford,California, Stanford University Press,2000, p.11-12.
42乔治舒尔茨曾于1982－1989年担任国务卿；威廉佩里曾于1994－1997年担任国防部长；亨利基辛格曾于1969－1973年担任总统国家安全事务特别助理，1973－1977年担任国务卿；塞姆纳恩曾担任参议院武装力量最高委员会主席。关于基辛格任职期间的核不扩散政策思想，我们将在下文进一步探讨。原文请参见GeorgeP. Shultz, William J. Perry, Henry A. Kissinger and Sam Nunn, A World Free of Nuclear Weapons, Wall Street Journal,January4,2007; George P. Shultz, William J. Perry, Henry A. Kissinger and Sam Nunn, Toward a Nuclear-Free World,Wall Street Journal, January15,2008.
43（美）理查德尼克松著，钟伟云译：《真正的和平》，世界知识出版社，1999年出版，第8页。
44（美）汉斯摩根索著，肯尼斯汤普森改写，李晖、孙芳译：《国家间的政治：为了权力与和平的斗争》，海南出版社，海口，2008年出版，第313页。
45Kenneth N. Waltz,“Structural Realism after the Cold War”, International Security, Vol.25, No.1(Summer,2000).
46（美）肯尼思华尔兹著，信强译：《国际政治理论》，上海人民出版社，上海，2003年出版，第245页。
47Kenneth Waltz,“Is Nuclear Zero the Best Option? Waltz Says No”, National Interest, Sept/Oct2010.
48（美）约翰米尔斯海默著，王义桅、唐小松译：《大国政治的悲剧》，上海人民出版社，上海，2003年出版，第210－211页。
49（美）约翰米尔斯海默著，王义桅、唐小松译：《大国政治的悲剧》，上海人民出版社，上海，2003年出版，164页。
50(美)小约瑟夫·奈著，张小明译：《理解国际冲突：理论与历史》，上海人民出版社，上海，2002年出版，第202页。
51Joseph S. Nye,“Maintaining a Nonproliferation Regime”, George H. Quester edited, Nuclear Proliferation:Breaking the Chain, The University of Wisconsin Press, Wisconsin,1981, p.36.
52Etel Solingen, Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, Princeton, PrincetonUniversity Press,2007, p.30.
53不过，也有学者认为，“建构主义是一种方法（approach），而不是一种理论。”参见(美)小约瑟夫·奈著，张小明译：《理解国际冲突：理论与历史》，上海人民出版社，上海，2002年出版，第11页；或参见朱明权著：《领导世界还是支配世界？冷战后美国国家安全战略》，天津人民出版社，天津，2005年出版，第9页。
54Dana P. Eyre, Mark C. Suchman,“Status, Norms, and the Proliferation of Conventional Weapons: An InstitutionalTheory Approach”, Peter J. Katzenstein edited, The Culture of National Security: Norms and Identity in WorldPolitics, New York, Columbia University Press,1996, p.86－87.
55Maria Rost Rublee, Nonproliferation Norms: Why States Chose Nuclear Restraint? Athens&London, TheUniversity of Georgia Press,2009, p.202.
56Richard Price and Nina Tannenwald,“Norms and Deterrence: The Nuclear and Chemical Weapons Taboos”, Peter J.Katzenstein edited, The Culture of National Security: Norms and Identity in World Politics, New York, ColumbiaUniversity Press,1996, p.142.
57Scott D. Sagan, Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed, New York, London, W. W.Norton&Company,2003, p.41,44.
58前引书，第44－45页。不过，肯尼斯·华尔兹对这一问题的认识也有一个不断微调的过程，他在1981年提出这一观点时将其归结为六方面的原因，1995年在与斯考特·萨甘进行论战时将其归为四个方面的原因，2003年他又进一步将其提炼为上述三方面原因。（参见Kenneth N. Waltz，The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: More MayBe Better, Adelphi Paper171,1981; Scott D. Sagan, Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate,New York, London, W. W. Norton&Company,1995, p.44-45.）
59Scott D. Sagan, Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed, New York, London, W. W.Norton&Company,2003, p.42-43.
60Scott D. Sagan, Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed, New York, London, W. W.Norton&Company,2003, p.50.
61Scott D. Sagan, Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed, New York, London, W. W.Norton&Company,2003, p.47-48.
62Scott D. Sagan, The Limits of Safety: Organizations, Accidents, and Nuclear Weapons, New Jersey, PrincetonUniversity Press,1993, p.264.
63Scott D. Sagan, Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed, New York, London, W. W.Norton&Company,2003, p.184.
64Scott D. Sagan, Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed, New York, London, W. W.Norton&Company,2003, p.84.
65Scott D. Sagan, The Limits of Safety: Organizations, Accidents, and Nuclear Weapons, New Jersey, PrincetonUniversity Press,1993, p.275.
66Bruce D. Berkowitz,“Proliferation, Deterrence, and the Likelihood of Nuclear War”, The Journal of ConflictResolution, Vol.29, No.1, Mar.1985, p.135.
67Matthew Kroenig,“Beyond Optimism and Pessimism: The Differential Effects of Nuclear Proliferation”Managing the Atom Working Paper No.2009-14, Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard University, November2009.
68Barry R. Schneider,“Nuclear Proliferation and Counter-Proliferation: Policy Issues and Debates”, MershonInternational Studies Review, Vol.38, No.2, Oct.,1994, p.211－216.
69David J. Karl,“Proliferation Pessimism and Emerging Nuclear Powers”, International Security, Vol.21, No.3Winter,1996-1997, pp.92.
70Scott D. Sagan, Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed, New York, London, W. W.Norton&Company,2003, p.84-85.
71（美）史蒂文李著，钱皓译：“核扩散与核权利”，载张曙光、胡礼忠主编：《伦理与国际事务新论》，上海
72朱明权著：《领导世界还是支配世界？冷战后美国国家安全战略》，天津人民出版社，天津，2005年出版，第10页。
73Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and William H. Riker,“An Assessment of the Merits of Selective Nuclear Proliferation”,The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.26, No.2, Jun,1982, p.303-304.
74Dennis Menos, The Superpowers and the Nuclear Arms Control: Rhetoric and Reality, New York and London,Praeger,1990.
75Joseph I. Coffey,“Nuclear Guarantees and Nonproliferation”, International Organization, Vol.25, No.3, Autumn,1971.
76Jacques E. C. Hymans, The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation: Identity, Emotions and Foreign Policy,Cambridge, Cambridge University Press,2006, p.219.
77Michael Nacht,“The Future Unlike the Past: Nuclear Proliferation and American Security Policy”, InternationalOrganization, Vol.35, No.1, Winter,1971.
78（美）杰里尔罗赛蒂著，周启鹏等译：《美国对外政策政治学》，世界知识出版社，北京，1997年出版，第266页。
79（法）夏尔－菲利普戴维、路易巴尔塔扎、于斯丹瓦伊斯著，钟震宇译：《美国对外政策：基础、主体与形成》，社会科学文献出版社，北京，2011年出版，第279－290。
80关于“核禁忌”的探讨，可参见Nina Tannenwald,“The Nuclear Taboo: The United States and the Normative Basisof Nuclear Non-Use”, International Organization, Vol.53, No.3, Summer,1999;或T. V. Paul,“Nuclear Taboo and
85Robert F. Goheen,“Problems of Proliferation: U.S. Policy and the Third World”, World Politics, Vol.35, No.2,January,1983, p.215.
86Robert F. Mozley,“The Politics and Technology on Nuclear Proliferation”, Seattle and London, University ofWashington Press,1998, p.241-242.
87Scott D. Sagan, Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed, New York, London, W. W.Norton&Company,2003, p.18-19.
88Scott D. Sagan,“The Causes of Nuclear Proliferation”, Current History, April1997, p.151-152.
89Jacques E. C. Hymans,“Theories of Nuclear Proliferation: The State of the Field”,http://www-bcf.usc.edu/~hymans/Hymans2006Theories.pdf
90Jacques E. C. Hymans,“Theories of Nuclear Proliferation: The State of the Field”,http://www-bcf.usc.edu/~hymans/Hymans2006Theories.pdf
91Tanya Ogilvie-White,“Is There a Theory of Nuclear Proliferation? An Analysis of the Contemporary Debate”, TheNonproliferation Review, Fall1996, p.44.
92参见Benjamin Frankel, Opaque Nuclear Proliferation: Methodological and Policy Implications, London, FrankCass,1991.
93Scott D. Sagan,“The Causes of Nuclear Proliferation”, Current History, April1997, p.156.
94《马克思恩格斯选集》第1卷，第603页。
95（美）麦乔治·邦迪著，褚广友等译：《美国核战略》，世界知识出版社，北京，1991年出版，第152页。
96前引书，第161－162页。
97（美）哈里杜鲁门著，李石译：《杜鲁门回忆录》（上卷），东方出版社，北京，2007年出版，第383页。
98前引书，第379页。
99前引书，第515页。
100前引书，第515－519页。
101前引书，第521－526页。
102国家安全委员会第152/2号文件：“执行秘书致国家安全委员会关于向盟国提供核情报的记录”，附件二：特别委员会关于军备和美国政策的第二份报告，1953年12月4日，载周建明、王成至主编《美国国家安全战略解密文献选编：1945－1972》第二册，社会科学文献出版社，北京，2010年出版，第579页。
103（美）哈里杜鲁门著，李石译：《杜鲁门回忆录》（下卷），东方出版社，北京，2007年出版，第14页。
104国家安全委员会68号文件：“美国国家安全的目标和计划”，1950年4月14日，载周建明、王成至主编《美国国家安全战略解密文献选编：1945－1972》第二册，社会科学文献出版社，北京，2010年出版，第80－84页。
105（美）麦乔治·邦迪著，褚广友等译：《美国核战略》，世界知识出版社，北京，1991年出版，第326页。
106国家安全委员会第146次会议讨论备忘录，1953年5月27日，载周建明、王成至主编《美国国家安全战略解密文献选编：1945－1972》第二册，社会科学文献出版社，北京，2010年出版，第563页。
107Gary T. Gardner, Nuclear Nonproliferation：A Primer, Boulder&London, Lynne Rienner Publishers,1994, p.39.
108国家安全委员会第152/2号文件：“执行秘书致国家安全委员会关于向盟国提供核情报的记录”，附件一：国家安全委员会关于向盟国提供核情报的政策声明，1953年12月4日，载周建明、王成至主编《美国国家安全战略解密文献选编：1945－1972》第二册，社会科学文献出版社，北京，2010年出版，第569－570页。
109同上，第576－591页。
110An address by Dwight D. Eisenhower before the General Assembly of U.N, Atomic Power for Peace, Joseph F.Pilat edited, Atoms for Peace: A Future after Fifty Years? Washington, Woodrow Wilson Center Press, p.244-245.
111（美）德怀特D艾森豪威尔著，樊迪、静海等译：《艾森豪威尔回忆录》（卷二），东方出版社，北京，2007年出版，第327－328页。
112国家安全委员会第210次会议备忘录，1954年8月12日，载周建明、王成至主编《美国国家安全战略解密文献选编：1945－1972》第二册，社会科学文献出版社，北京，2010年出版，第593页。
113国家安全委员会报告：“美国国家安全委员会执行部长对与其他国家在和平利用原子能方面合作的说明”，1954年8月13日，载周建明、王成至主编《美国国家安全战略解密文献选编：1945－1972》第二册，社会科学文献出版社，北京，2010年出版，第599－605页。
114Gary T. Gardner, Nuclear Nonproliferation：A Primer, Boulder&London, Lynne Rienner Publishers,1994, p.38.
115Tariq Rauf and Fiona Simpson,“Atoms for Peace and the Nuclear Fuel Cycle: Is It Time for a MultilateralApproach?” Joseph F. Pilat edited, Atoms for Peace: A Future after Fifty Years? Washington, Woodrow Wilson CenterPress, p.248.
116Paul Boyer:“From Activism to Apathy: The American People and Nuclear Weapons,1963-1980”, The Journal ofAmerican History, Vol.70, No.4, Mar.,1984, p.822-823.
117National Intelligence Estimate, NIE4-3-61,"Nuclear Weapons and Delivery Capabilities of Free World CountriesOther than the US and UK," September21,1961, microfiche supplement to U.S. Department of State, ForeignRelations of the United States,1961-1963, Volume VII, Arms Control and Disarmament (Washington, D.C., U.S.Government Printing Office,1997).
118“中情局关于中国原子能计划的评估”，1960年12月13日，沈志华、杨奎松主编：《美国对华情报揭秘档
案（1948－1976）》第三册，东方出版中心，2009年出版，上海，第41页。
119Avner Cohen, Israel and The Bomb, Columbia University Press, New York,1998, p.101-102.
120政策规划署草案，“国家安全基本政策”，1962年6月22日，载周建明、王成至主编《美国国家安全战略解密文献选编：1945－1972》第二册，社会科学文献出版社，北京，2010年出版，第423页。
121同上，第423－424页。
122（俄）阿纳托利多勃雷宁著，肖敏、王为译：《信赖：多勃雷宁回忆录》，世界知识出版社，北京，1997年出版，第105页。
123前引书，第112页。
124（美）威廉姆泰尔菲著，牛景立编译：《肯尼迪》，京华出版社，北京，2009年出版，第252页。
125前引书，第254页。
126（美）小阿瑟M施莱辛格著，仲宜译：《一千天：约翰菲肯尼迪在白宫》，生活读书新知三联书店，北京，1981年出版，第654页。
127参见（美）雷蒙德加特霍夫著，伍牛、王薇译：《冷战史：遏制与共存备忘录》，新华出版社，北京，2003年出版，第188－190页。
128“核扩散委员会致总统的报告”，1965年1月21日，载周建明、王成至主编《美国国家安全战略解密文献选编：1945－1972》（第二册），社会科学文献出版社，北京，2010年出版，第671－679页。
129转引自姜振飞著：《美国约翰逊政府与国际核不扩散体制》，中国社会科学出版社，北京，2008年出版，第
135－136页。
130U.S. Department of State Policy Planning Council,"The Further Spread of Nuclear Weapons: Problems for theWest,"14February1966, National Archives, Record Group59, Records of the Department of State (RG59)., Recordsof Policy Planning Council,1965-1968Subject, Country and Area Files, box384, Atomic Energy-Armaments (2of4).
131（俄）阿纳托利多勃雷宁著，肖敏、王为译：《信赖：多勃雷宁回忆录》，世界知识出版社，北京，1997年出版，第169页。
132有关《不扩散核武条约》形成经过及其争论的分析，可参见姜振飞著：《美国约翰逊政府与国际核不扩散体制》，中国社会科学出版社，北京，2008年出版。
133"The Impulse towards a Safer World"40th Anniversary of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, Washington, D.C.,July1,2008, http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/nukevault/ebb253/index.htm
134关于《不扩散核武器条约》缺陷的深度分析，可参见赵恒著：《核不扩散机制：历史与理论》，世界知识出版社，北京，2009年出版，第60－73页。
135Memo from Henry Owen, Director, Policy Planning Council, to Secretary Rusk,"After NPT, What,"10June1968,enclosing Policy Planning Council study of the same title,28May1968. Secret, RG59, Policy Planning CouncilSubject, Country, and Area Files,1965-1968, box384, Atomic Energy-Armaments.
136William C. Foster, to Executive Secretary Benjamin H. Read,"Basic Issues Regarding NPT and Timing ofRatification,''22November1968, Secret. National Archives, Record Group59, Records of the Department of State,1967-1969Subject-Numeric Files, DEF18-6.
137“核扩散委员会致总统的报告”，1965年1月21日，载周建明、王成至主编《美国国家安全战略解密文献选编：1945－1972》第二册，社会科学文献出版社，北京，2010年出版，第671－672页。
138李琮主编：《世界经济学大辞典》，经济科学出版社2000年，第938页。
139元世勇主编：《新词语大辞典》，世纪出版社2003年版，第1578页。
140陈兼著：“对‘冷战’在战略层面的再界定：二十世纪六十年代末、七十年代初美国对华及东亚政策的转变及其涵义”，《国际政治研究》2008年第3期；或参见牛军主编《战略的魔咒：冷战时期的美国大战略研究》，上海人民出版社，上海，2009年出版，第205页。
141陈兼著：“对‘冷战’在战略层面的再界定：二十世纪六十年代末、七十年代初美国对华及东亚政策的转变及其涵义”，《国际政治研究》2008年第3期；或参见牛军主编《战略的魔咒：冷战时期的美国大战略研究》，上海人民出版社，上海，2009年出版，第224页。
142转引自时殷弘著：《尼克松主义》，武汉大学出版社，武汉，1984年出版，第11－12页。
143（美）约翰·加迪斯著，时殷弘等译：《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》附录，世界知识出版社，北京，2005年出版，第375页。
144转引自时殷弘著：《尼克松主义》，武汉大学出版社，武汉，1984年出版，第11－14页。
145（美）亨利·基辛格著，陈瑶华等译：《白宫岁月》（第1册），世界知识出版社，北京，2003年出版，第299页。
146（美）亨利·基辛格著，陈瑶华等译：《白宫岁月》（第1册），世界知识出版社，北京，2003年出版，第286页。
147时殷弘著：《尼克松主义》，武汉大学出版社，武汉，1984年出版，第15页。
148（美）罗伯特L奥康奈尔著，卿颉、金马译：《兵器史：由兵器科技促成的西方历史》，海南出版社，海口，2009年出版，第415页。
149前引书，第417页。
150前引书，第423页。
151时殷弘著：《尼克松主义》，武汉大学出版社，武汉，1984年出版，第16页。
152陈兼著：“对‘冷战’在战略层面的再界定：二十世纪六十年代末、七十年代初美国对华及东亚政策的转变及其涵义”，《国际政治研究》2008年第3期；或参见牛军主编《战略的魔咒：冷战时期的美国大战略研究》，上海人民出版社，上海，2009年出版，第211页。
153王绳祖主编：《国际关系史（1960－1969）》第九卷，世界知识出版社，北京，1995年出版，第16－19页。
154法国退出北约军事一体化机构的举措包括：1966年7月1日起，法国驻德国部队不再隶属于北约，但仍继续在德国驻扎；同一天，法国将从北约军事一体化司令部撤出法国人员，代之以普通的联络代表团；7月23日，法国在北大西洋防务学院的高级人员和学员在本学期结业后撤走；1967年4月1日前，欧洲盟军最高司令部、中欧盟军司令部和北约防务委员会迁出法国领土。参见王绳祖主编：《国际关系史（1960－1969）》第九卷，世界知识出版社，北京，1995年出版，第202页。
155关于美国战略决策的逻辑程序，请参见张曙光著：《美国对华战略考虑与决策（1949－1972）》，上海外语教育出版社2002年版，第363－376页；周建明、张曙光著：《美国安全解读》，新华出版社，北京，2002年出版，第11页，等等。
156张曙光著：《美国遏制战略与冷战起源再探》，上海外语教育出版社，上海，2007年出版，第49－51页。
157前引书，第140页。
158国家安全委员会第68号文件，“美国国家安全的目标和计划”，1950年4月14日，载周建明、王成至主编《美国国家安全战略解密文献选编：1945－1972》第一册，社会科学文献出版社，北京，2010年出版，第54－56页。
159前引书，第102页。
160（美）约翰·加迪斯著，时殷弘等译：《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》，世界知识出版社，北京，2005年出版，第300页。
161关于尼克松－基辛格这一政治组合的更多分析，可参见（美）约翰·加迪斯著，时殷弘等译：《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》，世界知识出版社，2005年出版；张曙光著：《美国对华战略考虑与决策（1949－1972）》，上海外语教育出版社，2002年出版；张曙光著：《接触外交：尼克松政府与解冻中美关系》，世界知识出版社，2009年出版，等著作。
162“美国副总统向英联邦英语国家联盟发表的言说”，1958年11月26日，载（美）理查德·尼克松著，黄兴等译：《六次危机》附录，世界知识出版社，北京，1999年出版，第618页。
163（美）沃尔特·艾萨克森著，刘汉生等译：《基辛格：大国博弈的背后》，国际文化出版公司，2008年出版。，第103页。
164（美）约翰·加迪斯著，时殷弘等译：《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》，世界知识出版社，北京，2005年出版，第300页。
165（美）理查德·尼克松著，伍任等译：《尼克松回忆录》（上册），世界知识出版社，北京，2001年出版，第414页。
166（美）沃尔特·艾萨克森著，刘汉生等译：《基辛格：大国博弈的背后》，国际文化出版公司，2008年出版。，第103页。
167转引自戴超武：“基辛格－尼克松的‘宏大构想’、尼克松主义与冷战转型”，载《南开学报》（哲学社会学科版），2007年第5期。
168（美）理查德·尼克松著，常诤译：《真正的战争》，新华出版社，北京，1980年出版，第348页。
169前引书，第350页。
170（美）亨利基辛格著，刘丽媛、张维等译：《动乱年代：基辛格回忆录》（第三册），世界知识出版社，北京，1983年出版，第170页。
171（美）亨利基辛格著，顾淑馨、林添贵译：《大外交》，海南出版社，海口，1998年出版，第690页。
172戴超武：“基辛格－尼克松的‘宏大构想’、尼克松主义与冷战转型”，载《南开学报》（哲学社会学科版），2007年第5期。
173（美）罗伯特L奥康奈尔著，卿颉、金马译：《兵器史：由兵器科技促成的西方历史》，海南出版社，海口，2009年出版，第419页。
174关于苏联入侵阿富汗的历史经验和教训分析，可参见（俄）A利亚霍夫斯基著，刘宪平译：《阿富汗战争的悲剧》，社会科学文献出版社，北京，2004年出版。
175关于“尼克松主义”有关内容的分析，可参见（美）亨利基辛格著，陈瑶华等译：《白宫岁月》（第一册），第280－284页；王绳祖主编：《国际关系史（1970－1979）》第十卷，第4－7页；或时殷弘著：《尼克松主义》，等等。
176王绳祖主编：《国际关系史（1970－1979）》第十卷，世界知识出版社，北京，1995年出版，第5页
177（美）理查德·尼克松著，伍任等译：《尼克松回忆录》（上册），世界知识出版社，北京，2001年出版，第339页。
178张曙光著：《接触外交：尼克松政府与解冻中美关系》，世界知识出版社，北京，2009年出版，第319页。
179（美）约翰·加迪斯著，时殷弘等译：《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》，世界知识出版社，北京，2005年出版，第292页。
180（美）沃尔特·艾萨克森著，刘汉生等译：《基辛格：大国博弈的背后》，国际文化出版公司，2008年出版。，第573页。
181关于美国政府内部主张军事打击中国核计划这一点，不少著作都详略不等地提到了这一点，参见朱明权等著：《威慑与稳定：中美核关系》，时事出版社，北京，2005年出版，第161－179页；或（美）麦乔治·邦迪著，《美国核战略》，第715页；（俄）阿纳托利·多勃雷宁著，《信赖：多勃雷宁回忆录》，第156页；（美）雷蒙德加特霍夫著，《冷战史：遏制与共存备忘录》，第188页。
182关于中美关系解冻过程中“核军控与不扩散”问题的研究，可参见张曙光著：《接触外交：尼克松政府与解冻中美关系》第十章“核军控与中美缓和”，世界知识出版社，北京，2009年出版，第260-289页。
183张曙光著：《接触外交：尼克松政府与解冻中美关系》，世界知识出版社，北京，2009年出版，第288页。
184（美）麦乔治·邦迪著，褚广友等译：《美国核战略》，世界知识出版社，北京，1991年出版，第693页。或Raymond L. Garthoff, Détente and Confrontation: American-Soviet Relations from Nixon to Reagon, Washington,1985, p.286.
185Francis J. Gavin,“Nuclear Nixon: Ironies, Puzzles, and the Triumph of Realpolitik”, Fredrik Logevall and AndrewPreston edited, Nixon in the World, American Foreign Relations:1969-1977, Oxford, Oxford University Press,2008,
187张曙光著：《接触外交：尼克松政府与解冻中美关系》，世界知识出版社，北京，2009年出版，第46页。
188Robert Munn to Mr. Sisco,"Scheduling of Visit to Dimona Reactor," June12,1970. Secret/Exdis. RG59, RecordsRelating to Israel and Arab-Israeli Affairs,1951-1976, box26, NSSM-40.
189Jeffrey T. Richelson, Spying on the Bomb: American Nuclear Intelligence from Nazi Germany to Iran and NorthKorea, W. W. Norton&Company, New York,2006, p.245.
190David Albright and Corey Gay,“Taiwan: Nuclear Nightmare Averted”, The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,January/February1998, p.55.或参见（美）陶涵著，林添贵译：《蒋经国传》，新华出版社，北京，2002年出版，第267页，第352页。
191NIE4-66,"The Likelihood of Further Nuclear Proliferation," January20,1966，Lyndon B. Johnson Library.
192“阿拉伯联合共和国（United States ofArabia，UAR）”系1958年2月1日在埃及与叙利亚基础上组建的泛阿拉伯主义国家。1958年3月，阿拉伯联合共和国同也门王国（后来的阿拉伯也门共和国）组成邦联性质的阿拉伯合众国。1961年9月叙利亚宣布退出，同年12月阿拉伯合众国宣布解散。但埃及仍然保留“阿拉伯联合共和国”的国号，1971年9月“阿拉伯联合共和国”更名为阿拉伯埃及共和国。
193U.S. Embassy Tel Aviv, Airgram793,19March1966,"Nationalist Chinese Atomic Experts Visit Israel", NationalArchives, Record Group59, Department of State Records,1964-66, AE7Chinat.
194U.S. Embassy Tel Aviv, Airgram810,24March1966,"More on Nationalist Chinese Atomic Experts Visit to Israel",National Archives, Record Group59, Department of State Records,1964-66, AE7Chinat.
196U.S. Embassy Taipei, Airgram1037,20June1966,"Indications GRC Continues to Pursue Atomic Weaponry",National Archives, Record Group59, Department of State Records,1964-66, DEF12-1Chinat.
197U.S. Embassy Taipei, Airgram566,21February1967,"GRC Plans for Purchase of50Megawatt Heavy WaterNuclear Power Plant", National Archives, Record Group59, Department of State Records,1967-69, FSE13Chinat.
198肖元恺著：《百年之结：美国与中国台湾地区关系的历史透视》，人民出版社，北京，2001年出版，第162页。
199由于原报告上的日期已被部分覆盖，疑似为11月16，以下注释同。
200Morton Abramowitz to Ray S. Cline, Director, Office of Intelligence and Research, SNIE43-1-72: Taipei'sCapabilities and Intentions Regarding Nuclear Weapons Development,"15November1972.
201Special National Intelligence Estimate (SNIE)43-1-72,"Taipei's Capabilities and Intentions Regarding NuclearWeapons Development,"16(?) November1972.
202Special National Intelligence Estimate (SNIE)43-1-72,"Taipei's Capabilities and Intentions Regarding NuclearWeapons Development,"16(?) November1972.
203Special National Intelligence Estimate (SNIE)43-1-72,"Taipei's Capabilities and Intentions Regarding NuclearWeapons Development,"16(?) November1972.
204Special National Intelligence Estimate (SNIE)43-1-72,"Taipei's Capabilities and Intentions Regarding NuclearWeapons Development,"16(?) November1972.
205Special National Intelligence Estimate (SNIE)43-1-72,"Taipei's Capabilities and Intentions Regarding NuclearWeapons Development,"16(?) November1972.
206Special National Intelligence Estimate (SNIE)43-1-72,"Taipei's Capabilities and Intentions Regarding NuclearWeapons Development,"16(?) November1972.
207State Department Memorandum of Conversation,"Nuclear Programs in Republic of China,"9February1973,National Archives, Record Group59, Department of State Records,1970-73, AE6Chinat.
208曾任尼克松政府国家安全委员会行动处官员，当时为负责东亚与太平洋事务的助理国务卿帮办。
209Memorandum to Mr.[Richard] Sneider from Mary E. McDonnell, U.S. Department of State, Office of Republic ofChina Affairs,"Reported ROC Nuclear Weapons Development Program,"7April1973, RG59, Department of StateRecords,1970-73, AE6Chinat.
210Special National Intelligence Estimate4-1-74,"Prospects for Further Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,"23August1974, p.26-29. http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB240/snie.pdf
211Special National Intelligence Estimate4-1-74,"Prospects for Further Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,"23August1974, p.26－29,http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB240/snie.pdf
212Central Intelligence Agency, Directorate of Intelligence, Office of Political Research, Research Study,"ManagingNuclear Proliferation: The Politics of Limited Choice" December1975, CREST, National Archives Library, CollegePark, Maryland.
213Jeffrey T. Richelson, Spying on the Bomb: American Nuclear Intelligence from Nazi Germany to Iran and NorthKorea, W. W. Norton&Company, New York,2006, p.275.
214U.S. Embassy Bonn,"German Nuclear Reactor for Taiwan," Cable3000,25March1966, National Archives,Record Group59, Department of State Records,1964-66, AE7Chinat.
215U.S. Embassy Bonn, Cable3292,15April1966,"German Nuclear Reactor for Taiwan", National Archives, RecordGroup59, Department of State Records,1964-66, AE7Chinat.
216State Department to Embassies in Bonn and Taipei, Cable2896,23April1966, National Archives, Record Group59, Department of State Records,1964-66, AE6Chinat.
217State Department to Embassies Taipei and Bonn, Cable161887,20March1967, National Archives, Record Group59, Department of State Records,1967-69, FSE13Chinat.
218David Albright and Corey Gay,“Taiwan: Nuclear Nightmare Averted”, The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,January/February1998, p.57－58.
219Embassy Taipei to State Department,"Chung Shan Nuclear Research Institute," Cable1197,24February1973, RG59, Department of State Records,1970-73, FSE13Chinat.
220State Department to Embassies in Bonn, Brussels, and Taipei,"Proposed Reprocessing Plant for Republic ofChina," Cable12137,20January1973, RG59, Department of State Records,1970-73, FSE13Chinat.
221State Department Memorandum of Conversation,"ROC Nuclear Energy Plans,"29August1973, RG59,Department of State Records,1970-1973, AE1Chinat.
222Embassy Taipei to State Department,"Chung Shan Nuclear Research Institute," Cable1197,24February RG59,Department of State Records,19731970-73, FSE13Chinat.
228Embassy Taipei to State Department,"Proposed Reprocessing Plant for Republic of China," Cable0338,16January1973, RG59, Department of State Records,1970-73, FSE13Chinat.
229Embassy Taipei to State Department,"Proposed ROC Reprocessing Plant," Cable685,31January1973, RG59,Department of State Records,1970-73, FSE13Chinat.
230State Department Memorandum of Conversation,"ROC Nuclear Energy Plans,"29August1973RG59, Department of State Records,1970-1973, AE1Chinat.
231钟坚著：《爆心零时：两岸迈向核武的历程》，麦田出版社，台北，2004年出版，第159页。
232David Albright and Corey Gay,“Taiwan: Nuclear Nightmare Averted”, The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,January/February1998, p.58－59; Jeffrey T. Richelson, Spying on the Bomb: American Nuclear Intelligence fromNazi Germany to Iran and North Korea, W. W. Norton&Company, New York,2006, p.274-277.
233State Department cable91733to Embassy Taiwan,"ROC's Nuclear Intentions",4September1976, Secret Exdis.
234U.S. Embassy Taiwan cable6272to State Department,"ROC's Nuclear Intentions: Conversation with PremierChiang Ching-kuo,"15September1976, Secret Nodis.
235U.S. Embassy Taiwan cable6301to State Department,"ROC's Nuclear Intentions,"17September1976,Unclassified.（引文译自英文电文，使用时未核对报纸原文。）
236State Department to Embassies in Taipei and Tokyo,"ROC Nuclear Research," Cable51747,21March1973, RG
59, Department of State Records,1970-1973, AE1Chinat.
237Embassy, Taipei to State Department,"ROC Nuclear Intentions," Cable2354,20April1973, RG59, Department ofState Records,1970-73, AE1Chinat.
238Roger Sullivan to Assistant Secretary of State for Far East and Pacific Affairs Arthur W. Hummel, Jr.,"NuclearStudy Group Visit to Taiwan,"29October1973, National Archives, Record Group59, Department of State Records,Subject Files of the Office of Republic of China Affairs,1951-1975, Box14, AE3-Nuclear Study Group197.3
239U.S. Embassy Taiwan cable6272to State Department,"ROC's Nuclear Intentions: Conversation with PremierChiang Ching-kuo,"15September1976, Secret Nodis.
240U.S. Embassy Taiwan cable6864to State Department, ROC's Nuclear Intentions: Conversation with Premier,12October1976, Secret Exdis.
241U.S. Embassy Taiwan cable8654to State Department,"U.S. Nuclear Team Visit,"30December1976, SecretExdis.
242U.S. Embassy Taiwan cable332to State Department,"US Nuclear Team Conclusions and Recommendations,"17February1977, Secret Nodis.
243State Department to Embassies in Bonn, Brussels, and Taipei,"Proposed Reprocessing Plant for Republic ofChina," Cable12137,20January1973, RG59, Department of State Records,1970-73, FSE13Chinat.
244Embassy Taipei to State Department,"Proposed ROC Reprocessing Plant," Cable685,31January1973, RG59,Department of State Records, Subject-Numeric Files,1970-1973, FSE13Chinat.
245State Department to Embassies in Taipei and Tokyo,"ROC Nuclear Research," Cable51747,21March1973, RG
59, Department of State Records, Subject-Numeric Files,1970-1973, AE1Chinat.
246State Department Memorandum of Conversation,"ROC Nuclear Energy Plans,"29August1973RG59, Department of State Records,1970-1973, AE1Chinat.
247State Department cable174889to U.S. Embassy Taiwan,"Call on Assistant Secretary Hummel by Victor Cheng,"4September1973, Secret, National Archives, Access to Archival Databases, State Department Central Foreign PolicyFiles, Electronic Telegrams1973(AAD).
248Document2B: Roger Sullivan to Assistant Secretary of State for Far East and Pacific Affairs Arthur W. Hummel, Jr.,"Nuclear Study Group Visit to Taiwan,"29October1973, National Archives, Record Group59, Department of StateRecords, Subject Files of the Office of Republic of China Affairs,1951-1975, Box14, AE3-Nuclear Study Group
197.3
249Letter of William Gleysteenv to Thomas Bleha,23November1973, National Archives, Record Group59,Department of State Records, Subject Files of the Office of Republic of China Affairs,1951-1975, Box14, AE3-Nuclear Study Group1973.
250U.S. Embassy Taiwan cable5536to State Department,"Nuclear Fuel Reprocessing Plant,"16August1976, SecretExdis.
2511976年，来自密苏里州的民主党参议员斯图亚特·赛明顿（Stuart Symington）提出了《对外援助法案》的修正案，要求禁止美国向那些违反国际原子能机构规定，输送、接受、获取和转让的核浓缩技术和设备的国家提供军事、经济援助以及出口信贷。1977年该条款被国会通过，成为《武器出口控制法案（AECA）》第102款。
252State Department cable91733to Embassy Taiwan,"ROC's Nuclear Intentions,"4September1976, Secret Exdis.
253U.S. Embassy Taiwan cable6100to State Department,"Demarche on ROC's Nuclear Intentions,"9September1976, Secret Exdis.
254U.S. Embassy Taiwan cable6272to State Department,"ROC's Nuclear Intentions: Conversation with PremierChiang Ching-kuo,"15September1976, Secret Nodis.
255U.S. Embassy Taiwan cable6272to State Department,"ROC's Nuclear Intentions: Conversation with PremierChiang Ching-kuo,"15September1976, Secret Nodis.
256State Department cable4532to Embassy Taiwan,"Taiwan's Continued Interest in Reprocessing,"8January1977,Secret Exdis.
257（美）理查德尼克松著，裘克安等译：《尼克松回忆录》（中册），世界知识出版社，北京，2001年出版，第
471页。
258熊志勇：“艰难的选择：中美关系正常化对美台关系的影响”，资中筠、何迪主编：《美台关系四十年》，人民出版社，北京，1991年出版，第168页。
259陈兼著：“对‘冷战’在战略层面的再界定：二十世纪六十年代末、七十年代初美国对华及东亚政策的转变及其涵义”，《国际政治研究》2008年第3期；或参见牛军主编《战略的魔咒：冷战时期的美国大战略研究》，上海人民出版社，上海，2009年出版，第222页。
260William Burr edited, U.S. Opposed Taiwanese Bomb during1970s, National Security Archive Electronic BriefingBook No.221, June15,2007. http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/nukevault/ebb221/index.htm
261William Burr edited, New Archival Evidence on Taiwanese "Nuclear Intentions",1966-1976, National SecurityArchive Electronic Briefing Book No.19, October13,1999. http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB20/
262Memorandum from Burton Levin, Office of Republic of China Affairs, to Oscar Armstrong, Deputy AssistantSecretary for East Asian Affairs,"PRCLO Comment on Taiwan Nuclear Development,"12October1976, RG59,Policy Planning Staff (Director's Files),1969-7, box377, WL China Sensitive Chron10/1-12/31/76.
263熊志勇：“艰难的选择：中美关系正常化对美台关系的影响”，资中筠、何迪主编：《美台关系四十年》，人民出版社，北京，1991年出版，第187页。
264Glenn H. Snyder,“The Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics”, World Politics, Vol.34, No.3, July1984；或参见孙德刚著：《多元平衡与准联盟理论研究》，时事出版社，北京，2007年出版，第108－120页。
265Derek J. Mitchell,” Taiwan’s Hsin Chu Programme: Deterrence, Abandonment, and Honor”, Kurt M. Campbell,Robert J. Einhorn, Mitchell B. Reiss edited, The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their NuclearChoices, Washington, The Brookings Institution Press,2004, p.295.
266（美）亨利·基辛格著，陈瑶华等译：《白宫岁月》第四册，世界知识出版社，北京，2003年出版，第1389页。
267“总统、基辛格博士和黑格将军在白宫椭圆形办公室会晤之会议记录”，1971年7月1日，转引自张曙光、周建明编译：《中美解冻与台湾问题：尼克松外交文献选编》，香港中文大学出版社，香港，2008年出版，第172页。
268肖元恺著：《百年之结：美国与中国台湾地区关系的历史透视》，人民出版社，北京，2001年出版，第161页。
270张清敏著：《美国对台军售政策研究》，世界知识出版社，北京，2006年出版，第75页。
271State Department cable219733to Embassy Taiwan,"ROC's Nuclear Intentions,"4September1976, Secret Exdis,Freedom of Information Act request.
272State Department cable235429to U.S. Embassy Taiwan,"Congressional Hearings on ROC Nuclear Activities,"9October1976, Confidential, Freedom of Information Act request.
273钟坚著：《爆心零时：两岸迈向核武历程》，麦田出版社，台北，2004年出版，第138页。
274Vincent Wei-Cheng Wang,“Taiwan: Conventional Deterrence, Soft Power, and Nuclear Option”, MuthiahAlagappa edited, The Long Shadow: Nuclear Weapons and Security in21stCentury Asia, California, StanfordUniversity Press,2008, p.414.
275Memorandum from Leo J. Moser, Office of Republic of China Affairs, to Assistant Secretary for East Asian andPacific Affairs Marshall Green,"Nuclear Materials Reprocessing Plant for ROC,"14December1972, RG59,Department of State Records,1970-1973, FSE13Chinat.
276（美）罗伯特·S·罗斯著，丛凤辉等译：《风云变幻的美中关系（1969－1989）》，中央编译出版社，北京，1998年出版，第15页。
277熊志勇：“艰难的选择：中美关系正常化对美台关系的影响”，资中筠、何迪主编：《美台关系四十年》，人民出版社，北京，1991年出版，第183页。
279肖元恺著：《百年之结：美国与中国台湾地区关系的历史透视》，人民出版社，北京，2001年出版，第173－174页。
280基辛格“在10月份访问中国时的情况简介”备忘录，1971年11月，转引自张曙光、周建明编译：《中美解冻与台湾问题：尼克松外交文献选编》，香港中文大学出版社，香港，2008年出版，第545页。
281“周总理和尼克松的会谈”记录，1972年2月22日，转引自张曙光、周建明编译：《中美解冻与台湾问题：尼克松外交文献选编》，香港中文大学出版社，香港，2008年出版，第606页。
282（美）理查德尼克松著，裘克安等译：《尼克松回忆录》（中册），世界知识出版社，北京，2001年出版，第685页。
283（美）理查德尼克松著，伍任等译：《尼克松回忆录》（上册），世界知识出版社，北京，2001年出版，第
340页。2841957年3月20日，驻台美军士兵雷诺枪杀了台湾“革命实践研究院”少校学员刘自然，美国军事法庭事后宣布雷诺无罪开释，这一事件引起了台湾民众的强烈不满。5月24日下午，数千名台湾民众攻入美国驻台使馆，打伤八名美方人员，并砸开保险柜抢走了机密文件，这就是台湾战后历史上著名的“五二四事件”。美方怀疑“五二四事件”背后的主使很可能就是蒋经国。
285U.S. Embassy Taiwan cable8654to State Department,"U.S. Nuclear Team Visit,"30December1976, SecretExdis. Freedom of Information Act request
286钟坚著：《爆心零时：两岸迈向核武的历程》，麦田出版社，台北，2004年出版，第153－154页。
287U.S. Embassy Taipei, Airgram1037,20June1966,"Indications GRC Continues to Pursue Atomic Weaponry",National Archives, Record Group59, Department of State Records,1964-66, DEF12-1Chinat.
288U.S. Embassy Taipei, Airgram1037,20June1966,"Indications GRC Continues to Pursue Atomic Weaponry",National Archives, Record Group59, Department of State Records,1964-66, DEF12-1Chinat.
289邱宏义著：《中国物理学之父吴大猷》，新疆人民出版社，乌鲁木齐，2004年出版，第185－189页。
290U.S. Embassy Taiwan cable6272to State Department,"ROC's Nuclear Intentions: Conversation with PremierChiang Ching-kuo,"15September1976, Secret Nodis；或参见（美）陶涵著，林添贵译：《蒋经国传》，新华出版社，北京，2002年出版，第352页。
291U.S. Embassy Taipei, Airgram1037,20June1966,"Indications GRC Continues to Pursue Atomic Weaponry",National Archives, Record Group59, Department of State Records,1964-66, DEF12-1Chinat.
292钟坚著：《爆心零时：两岸迈向核武的历程》，麦田出版社，台北，2004年出版，第156页。
293王光远编著：《蒋介石在台湾》，中国文史出版社，北京，2008年出版，第229页。
295Ernest W. Lefever, Nuclear Arms in the Third World: U.S. Policy Dilemma, Washington, Brookings Institution,1979, p.97.
296龙中天：“蒋经国在台湾：来台后的几个时代”，时事出版社编辑部选编：《蒋经国在台湾》，时事出版社，1988年出版，北京，第36页。
297茅家琦主编：《台湾三十年：1949－1979》，河南人民出版社，郑州，1988年出版，第36页。
298洛德致基辛格备忘录“4月13日会晤的会谈要点——其他主题”和“在台湾岛的核武器”，1972年4月11日，转引自张曙光、周建明编译：《中美解冻与台湾问题：尼克松外交文献选编》，香港中文大学出版社，香港，2008年出版，第779页。
299茅家琦主编：《台湾三十年：1949－1979》，河南人民出版社，郑州，1988年出版，第218页。
300肖元恺著：《百年之结：美国与中国台湾地区关系的历史透视》，人民出版社，北京，2001年出版，第165页。
301Derek J. Mitchell,” Taiwan’s Hsin Chu Programme: Deterrence, Abandonment, and Honor”, Kurt M. Campbell,Robert J. Einhorn, Mitchell B. Reiss edited, The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their NuclearChoices, Washington, The Brookings Institution Press,2004, p.296-297.
302曾景忠、梁之彦选编：《蒋经国自述》，团结出版社，北京，2007年出版，第290页。
303（美）陶涵著，林添贵译：《蒋经国传》，新华出版社，北京，2002年出版，第325页。
304曾景忠、梁之彦选编：《蒋经国自述》，团结出版社，北京，2007年出版，第249页。
307进出口占一国国民生产总值的比重。
308Etel Solingen, Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, Princeton, PrincetonUniversity Press,2007, p.113.
309Special National Intelligence Estimate4-1-74,"Prospects for Further Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,"23August1974, p.26－29,http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB240/snie.pdf
310Vincent Wei-Cheng Wang,“Taiwan: Conventional Deterrence, Soft Power, and Nuclear Option”, MuthiahAlagappa edited, The Long Shadow: Nuclear Weapons and Security in21stCentury Asia, California, StanfordUniversity Press,2008, p.411.
311U.S. Embassy Taiwan cable6272to State Department,"ROC's Nuclear Intentions: Conversation with PremierChiang Ching-kuo,"15September1976, Secret Nodis.
312魏绍志、孙向明：“台湾核计划覆灭揭秘”，《中国国防报》2000年5月12日。
313转引自王卫星：“台湾核武器之谜”，《世界知识》2003年第20期，第55－56页。
314（美）蒂姆韦纳著，杜默译：《中情局罪与罚：CIA60年秘史存灰》，海天出版社，深圳，2009年出版，第
371页。
315Derek J. Mitchell,“Taiwan’s Hsin Chu Programme: Deterrence, Abandonment, and Honor”, Kurt M. Campbell,Robert J. Einhorn, Mitchell B. Reiss edited, The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their NuclearChoices, Washington, The Brookings Institution Press,2004, p.300-301.
316钟坚著：《爆心零时：两岸迈向核武的历程》，麦田出版社，台北，2004年出版，第166页。
317Vincent Wei-Cheng Wang,“Taiwan: Conventional Deterrence, Soft Power, and Nuclear Option”, MuthiahAlagappa edited, The Long Shadow: Nuclear Weapons and Security in21stCentury Asia, California, StanfordUniversity Press,2008, p.414－415;或参见Vincent Wei-cheng Wang, Will Taiwan Contemplate a “Nuclear Option”?Security Imperative and Normative Transformation, Tamkang Journal of International Affairs, Vol.11, No.4, April2008, p.48.
318William Burr edited, U.S. Opposed Taiwanese Bomb during1970s, National Security Archive Electronic BriefingBook No.221, June15,2007. http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/nukevault/ebb221/index.htm
319Etel Solingen, Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, Princeton, PrincetonUniversity Press,2007, p.104.
320NIE4-66,"The Likelihood of Further Nuclear Proliferation," January20,1966，Lyndon B. Johnson Library.
321Memorandum to Mr.[Richard] Sneider from Mary E. McDonnell, U.S. Department of State, Office of Republic ofChina Affairs,"Reported ROC Nuclear Weapons Development Program,"7April1973, RG59, Department of StateRecords,1970-73, AE6Chinat.
322Etel Solingen, Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, Princeton, PrincetonUniversity Press,2007, p.111.
323Etel Solingen, Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, Princeton, PrincetonUniversity Press,2007, p.116.
324Etel Solingen, Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, Princeton, PrincetonUniversity Press,2007, p.113.
325Sylvia K. Crosbie, A Tacit Alliance: France and Israel from Suez to the Six Day War, Princeton University Press,Princeton, New Jersey,1974, p.121.
326National Intelligence Estimate100-2-58,"Development of Nuclear Capabilities by Fourth Countries: Likelihoodand Consequences," July1,1958, Secret. Dwight D. Eisenhower Library, mandatory review request.
327Jeffrey T. Richelson, Spying on the Bomb: American Nuclear Intelligence from Nazi Germany to Iran and NorthKorea, W. W. Norton&Company, New York,2006, p.248－250.
328SNIE100-8-60,"Implications of the Acquisition by Israel of a Nuclear Weapons Capability", December8,1960,http://www.irmep.org/ila/nukes/1960SNIE_Israeli_Nukes.pdf
329SNIE100-8-60,"Implications of the Acquisition by Israel of a Nuclear Weapons Capability", December8,1960,http://www.irmep.org/ila/nukes/1960SNIE_Israeli_Nukes.pdf
330SNIE100-8-60,"Implications of the Acquisition by Israel of a Nuclear Weapons Capability.", December8,1960,http://www.irmep.org/ila/nukes/1960SNIE_Israeli_Nukes.pdf
331Foreign Relations of the United States,1958-1960, Volume13, Arab-Israeli Dispute; United Arab Republic; NorthAfrica (Washington, D.C., U.S. Government Printing Office,1992), p.393-394.
332“Memorandum of Conference with the President,19December1960”,12January1961, International Files, Box8,Israel, DDEL.
333Avner Cohen, Israel and The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,1998, p.89-91.
334“Summary ofAdditional Recent Information Israeli Atomic Energy Program”, Assistant Secretary of the StateWilliam B. Macomber to James T. Ramey, the executive director of the Joint Committee on Atomic Energy,19January1961,The Dwight D. Eisenhower Presidential Library.
335"Post-Mortem on SNIE100-8-60: Implications of the Acquisition by Israel of a Nuclear Weapons Capability.” Draft,January31,1961,Department of States Lot files, Lot No57D688, United States National Archives.
336National Intelligence Estimate, NIE4-3-61,"Nuclear Weapons and Delivery Capabilities of Free World CountriesOther than the US and UK," September21,1961. microfiche supplement to U.S. Department of State, ForeignRelations of the United States,1961-1963, Volume VII, Arms Control and Disarmament (Washington, D.C., U.S.Government Printing Office,1997).
337Jeffrey T. Richelson, Spying on the Bomb: American Nuclear Intelligence from Nazi Germany to Iran and NorthKorea, W. W. Norton&Company, New York,2006, p.257.
338CIA, Office of National Estimate, Memorandum for the Director, Sherman Kent,“Consequence of IsraeliAcquisition of Nuclear Capability”,6March1963,1, National Security Files, Box118, JFKL.
339CIA, Office of National Estimate, Memorandum for the Director, Sherman Kent,“Consequence of IsraeliAcquisition of Nuclear Capability”,6March1963,1, National Security Files, Box118, JFKL.
340Jeffrey T. Richelson, Spying on the Bomb: American Nuclear Intelligence from Nazi Germany to Iran and NorthKorea, W. W. Norton&Company, New York,2006, p.258.
341Jeffrey T. Richelson, Spying on the Bomb: American Nuclear Intelligence from Nazi Germany to Iran and NorthKorea, W. W. Norton&Company, New York,2006, p.258.
342Special National Intelligence Estimate,30-2-63,"The Advanced Weapons Programs of the UAR and Israel," May8,1963, secret, excised copy. CIA FOIA release.
343National Intelligence Estimate Number4-63,“Likelihood and Consequences of a Proliferation of Nuclear WeaponsSystems”, June28,1963, secret, excised copy. CIA FOIA appeal release.
344President John Kennedy’s letter to prime minister Levi Eshkol,5July1963, Israel State Archive, Jerusalem, FMRG,3377/14.
345Zaki Shalom, Israel’s Nuclear Option, Behind the Scenes Diplomacy between Dimona and Washington, Brightonand Portland, Sussex Academic Press,2005, p.59.
346NIE4-2-64,"Prospects for a Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons over the Next Decade," October21,1964. FOIAappeal release.
347Central Intelligence Agency,"Nuclear Weapons Programs Around the World,"3December1964, top secret, excisedcopy. Mandatory review request by National Security Archive to Lyndon B. Johnson Library, National Security File,Committee File, Committee on Nuclear Proliferation, box6, Prospects for Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
348Zaki Shalom, Israel’s Nuclear Option, Behind the Scenes Diplomacy between Dimona and Washington, Brightonand Portland, Sussex Academic Press,2005, p.104-106.
349Zaki Shalom, Israel’s Nuclear Option, Behind the Scenes Diplomacy between Dimona and Washington, Brightonand Portland, Sussex Academic Press,2005, p.116-117.
350NIE4-66,"The Likelihood of Further Nuclear Proliferation," January20,1966, Secret, excised copy. Lyndon B.Johnson Library, mandatory review release, currently under appeal.
351NIE4-66,"The Likelihood of Further Nuclear Proliferation," January20,1966, Secret, excised copy. Lyndon B.Johnson Library, mandatory review release, currently under appeal.
352U.S. Department of State Policy Planning Council,"The Further Spread of Nuclear Weapons: Problems for theWest,"14February1966, Secret. National Archives, Record Group59, Records of the Department of State, Records ofPolicy Planning Council,1965-1968Subject, Country and Area Files, box384, Atomic Energy-Armaments.
353U.S. Department of State Policy Planning Council,"The Further Spread of Nuclear Weapons: Problems for theWest,"14February1966, Secret. National Archives, Record Group59, Records of the Department of State, Records of
357Parker T. Hart to Secretary Dean Rusk,"Issues to be Considered in Connection With Negotiations With Israel forF-4Phantom Aircraft," October15,1968, Top Secret/Nodis (Note2)/Sensitive. Department of State Records, RecordGroup59,1967-1969, Def12-5Isr.
358Memorandum of W. W. Rostow to President Johnson,“Talking Points for Prime Minister Eshkol”,5January1968,National Security Files, Country Files-Israel, Box144-145, Lyndon B Johnson Presidential Library.
359Secretary of State Dean Rusk, Memorandum to the President,"Letter to Prime Minister Eshkol on NPT,"19April1968, Secret. National Archives, Record Group59, Records of the Department of State,1967-1969Subject-NumericFiles, DEF18-6.
360Memorandum of Conversation,"Negotiations with Israel-F4and Advanced Weapons," November4,1968. TopSecret/Sensitive, National Security Files, Israel, Vol XI, Memos&Cables, Lyndon B. Johnson Library.
361Memorandum of Conversation,"Negotiations with Israel-F4and Advanced Weapons," November8,1968. TopSecret/Sensitive, National Security Files, Israel, Vol XI, Memos&Cables, Lyndon B. Johnson Library.
362Avner Cohen, Israel and The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,1998, p.314-315.
363Telegram (269999), Rusk to Tel Aviv Embassy,8November1968, RG59, CFPF,1967-1969, Box2060, POLISR-US1968, USNA.
364Memcon,"Negotiations with Israel-F4and Advanced Weapons," November12,1968. Top Secret. NationalSecurity Files, Israel, Vol XI, Memos&Cables, Lyndon B. Johnson Library.
365Paul C. Warnke to Ambassador Yitzhak Rabin, November27,1968. Secret. National Security Files, Israel, Vol XI,Memos&Cables, Lyndon B. Johnson Library.
366Avner Cohen, Israel and The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,1998, p.321.
367Zaki Shalom, Israel’s Nuclear Option, Behind the Scenes Diplomacy between Dimona and Washington, Brightonand Portland, Sussex Academic Press,2005, p.166-167.
368Jeffrey T. Richelson, Spying on the Bomb: American Nuclear Intelligence from Nazi Germany to Iran and NorthKorea, W. W. Norton&Company, New York,2006, p.257.
369Avner Cohen, Israel and The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,1998, p.327-328.
370Henry Owen to the Secretary,"Impact on U.S. Policies of an Israeli Nuclear Weapons Capability," February7,1969.Secret/Nodis/Noforn. Department of State Records, Record Group59, Subject-Numeric Files,1967-1969, DEF12Isr.
371Secretary of Defense Melvin Laird to Secretary of State et al.,"Stopping the Introduction of Nuclear Weapons intothe Middle East," March17,1969. Top Secret, excised copy. Nixon Presidential Materials Project（NPMP）, NationalSecurity Council Files（NSCF）, box604, Israel Vol. I.
372Joseph J. Sisco to the Secretary,"Israel's Nuclear Policy and Implications for the United States," April3,1969.Secret/Nodis. Department of State Records, Subject-Numeric Files,1967-1969, DEF12Isr.
373Joseph J. Sisco to the Secretary,"Israel's Nuclear Policy and Implications for the United States," April3,1969.Secret/Nodis. Department of State Records, Subject-Numeric Files:1967-1969, DEF12Isr.
374Memo from Kissinger to the President ca. July1969. NSC files, Israeli Nuclear Program, Box612, Folder4.http://nixon.archives.gov/virtuallibrary/documents/mr/071969_israel.pdf
375Richardson to President,"Israel's Nuclear Program," with memorandum of conversation attached, August1,1969,Top Secret/Nodis. NPMP, NSCF, box604, Israel Vol II.
376Secretary of State William Rogers to President Nixon,"Suggested Position for You to Take with Israeli PrimeMinister Meir during Her Forthcoming Visit," September18,1969, with excerpt from briefing paper attached. TopSecret/Nodis. Subject-Numeric Files,1967-1969, DEF12.
377Theodore L. Eliot, State Department Executive Secretary, to Henry Kissinger,"Briefing Book-Visit of Mrs. GoldaMeir," September19,1969, enclosing "Background-Israel's Nuclear Weapon and Missile Programs." TopSecret/Nodis. Department of State Records, Subject-Numeric Files:1967-1969, Pol7Isr.
378Theodore L. Eliot, State Department Executive Secretary, to Henry Kissinger,"Briefing Book-Visit of Mrs. GoldaMeir," September19,1969, enclosing "Background-Israel's Nuclear Weapon and Missile Programs." TopSecret/Nodis. Department of State Records, Subject-Numeric Files:1967-1969, Pol7Isr.
379Henry Owen to the Secretary,"Impact on U.S. Policies of an Israeli Nuclear Weapons Capability," February7,1969.Secret/Nodis/Noforn. Department of State Records, Record Group59, Subject-Numeric Files:1967-1969, DEF12Isr.
380Joseph J. Sisco to the Secretary,"Israel's Nuclear Policy and Implications for the United States," April3,1969.Secret/Nodis. Department of State Records, Subject-Numeric Files:1967-1969, DEF12Isr.
381阿维纳柯亨指出，“NSSM-40是尼克松时代唯一仍在保密之中的国家安全研究备忘录，也是唯一不能从尼克松总统图书馆网站上获取的国家安全研究备忘录，它目前仍被标为‘完全保密’。”（Avner Cohen, TheWorst-Kept Secret: Israel’s Bargain with The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,2010, p.11.）
382Avner Cohen and William Burr, Israel Crosses the Threshold, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist, May/June,2006,p.25;或参见Avner Cohen, The Worst-Kept Secret: Israel’s Bargain with The Bomb, New York, Columbia UniversityPress,2010, p.10.
383（美）西摩·赫什著，吴聿衡等译：《权力的代价：尼克松执政时期的基辛格》，国际文化出版公司，北京，
386Memo from Kissinger to the President ca. July19,1969. NSCF, Israeli Nuclear Program, Box612, Folder4.http://nixon.archives.gov/virtuallibrary/documents/mr/071969_israel.pdf
387"The Issues for Decision," n.d.[Early July1969]. Top Secret/Nodis/Sensitive. NPMP, NSCF, box604, Israel Vol II.
388"The Issues for Decision," n.d.[Early July1969]. Top Secret/Nodis/Sensitive. NPMP, NSCF, box604, Israel Vol II.
389Avner Cohen, Israel and The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,1998, p.331-332.
390Memorandum of conversation,"1969Dimona Visit," August13,1969. Secret/Nodis. Department of State Records,Subject-Numeric Files,1967-1969, AE11-2Isr.
391Joseph J. Sisco to the Acting Secretary,"Talking Points for Initial Meeting with Israelis on Nuclear and SSM IssueJuly29," July28,1969. Top Secret/Nodis. Subject-Numeric Files1967-1969, Def12-1Isr.
392Richardson to President,"Israel's Nuclear Program," with memorandum of conversation attached, August1,1969,Top Secret/Nodis. NPMP, NSCF, box604, Israel Vol II.
393Richardson to the President,"Israel's Nuclear Program," August28,1969. Top Secret/Nodis. Department of StateRecords, Subject-Numeric Files,1967-1969, DEF12-1Isr.
394Secretary of State William Rogers to President Nixon,"Suggested Position for You to Take with Israeli PrimeMinister Meir during Her Forthcoming Visit," September18,1969, with excerpt from briefing paper attached. TopSecret/Nodis. Subject-Numeric Files,1967-1969, Pol7Isr.
395Theodore L. Eliot, State Department Executive Secretary, to Henry Kissinger,"Briefing Book-Visit of Mrs. GoldaMeir," September19,1969, enclosing "Background-Israel's Nuclear Weapon and Missile Programs." TopSecret/Nodis. Department of State Records, Subject-Numeric Files,1967-1969, Pol7Isr.
396Theodore L. Eliot, State Department Executive Secretary, to Henry Kissinger,"Briefing Book-Visit of Mrs. GoldaMeir," September19,1969, enclosing "Background-Israel's Nuclear Weapon and Missile Programs." TopSecret/Nodis. Department of State Records, Subject-Numeric Files,1967-1969, Pol7Isr.
397（以）果尔达·梅厄著，章仲远、李佩玉译：《梅厄夫人自传》，新华出版社，北京，1985年出版，第374－376页。
398Michael Karpin, The Bomb in the Basement: How Israel Went Nuclear and What That Means for the World,New York, London, Sydney and Toronto, Simon&Schuster Paperbacks,2006, p.318;或参见Avner Cohen andWilliam Burr,“Israel Crosses the Threshold”, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist, May/June,2006, p.28; Avner Cohen,The Worst-Kept Secret: Israel’s Bargain with The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,2010, p.25-26.
399Kissinger to the President,"Discussions with the Israelis on Nuclear Matters," October7,1969. TopSecret/Sensitive/Nodis. NPMP, NSCF, box605, Israel Vol III.
400Kissinger to the President,"Discussions with the Israelis on Nuclear Matters," October7,1969. TopSecret/Sensitive/Nodis. NPMP, NSCF, box605, Israel Vol III.
401Kissinger to the President, October8,1969, enclosing "Rabin's Proposed Assurances on Israel Nuclear Policy,"October8,1969. Top Secret/Nodis/Sensitive. NPMP, NSCF, box605, Israel Vol. III
402Kissinger to the President, October8,1969, enclosing "Rabin's Proposed Assurances on Israel Nuclear Policy,"October8,1969. Top Secret/Nodis/Sensitive. NPMP, NSCF, box605, Israel Vol. III
403Kissinger to Nixon,"Israel's Nuclear Program," November6,1969, with memorandum from Richardson andmemorandum of conversation attached. Top Secret/Nodis. NPMP, NSCF, box605, Israel Vol III.
404Memorandum of Conversation, Kissinger and Rabin, February23,1970. Top Secret/Sensitive. NPMP, Henry A.
407Memorandum from Atherton and Kratzer to Mr. Sisco,"Response to Congressional Questions on Israel's NuclearCapabilities," October15,1975. Department of State Records, Record Group59,1967-1969, DEF12, Records ofJoseph Sisco, box40, Israeli Nuclear Capability1975.
408Memo from Kissinger to the President ca. July1969. NSC files, Israeli Nuclear Program, Box612, Folder4.http://nixon.archives.gov/virtuallibrary/documents/mr/071969_israel.pdf
409"The Issues for Decision," n.d.[Early July1969]. Top Secret/Nodis/Sensitive. NPMP, NSCF, box604, Israel Vol II.
410Joseph J. Sisco to the Secretary,"Israel's Nuclear Policy and Implications for the United States," April3,1969.Secret/Nodis. Department of State Records,1967-1969, DEF12Isr
411（美）理查德·尼克松著，伍任等译：《尼克松回忆录》（中册），世界知识出版社，2001年出版，第578页。
412（以）米迦勒·巴尔－祖海尔，刘瑞祥、杨兆文译：《现代以色列之父：本－古里安传》，中国社会科学出版社，北京，1994年出版，第305页。
414李伟建等著：《以色列与美国关系研究》，时事出版社，北京，2006年出版，第17页。
415Abraham Ben Zvi, Decision of Transition: Eisenhower, Kennedy, and the Origins of the American-IsraeliAlliance, New York, Columbia University Press,1998, p.129.
416Zaki Shalom, Israel’s Nuclear Option, Behind the Scenes Diplomacy between Dimona and Washington, Brightonand Portland, Sussex Academic Press,2005, p.109.
417Avner Cohen, The Worst-Kept Secret: Israel’s Bargain with The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,2010, p.6.
418（以）果尔达·梅厄著，章仲远、李佩玉译：《梅厄夫人自传》，新华出版社，北京，1985年出版，第374页。
419Michael Karpin, The Bomb in the Basement: How Israel Went Nuclear and What That Means for the World,New York, London, Sydney and Toronto, Simon&Schuster Paperbacks,2006, p.319.
420（美）沃尔特·艾萨克森著，刘汉生等译：《基辛格：大国博弈的背后》，国际文化出版公司，2008年出版，第224页。
421（美）理查德·尼克松著，伍任等译：《尼克松回忆录》（中册），世界知识出版社，2001年出版，第577页。
422Memo from Kissinger to the President ca. July19,1969. NSCF, Israeli Nuclear Program, Box612, Folder4.http://nixon.archives.gov/virtuallibrary/documents/mr/071969_israel.pdf
423Robert Dallek, Nixon and Kissinger: Partners in Power, New York, Harper Collins Publishers,2007, p.176.
424Robert Dallek, Nixon and Kissinger: Partners in Power, New York, Harper Collins Publishers,2007, p.176.
425Avner Cohen, Israel and The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,1998, p.329.
426Avner Cohen, The Worst-Kept Secret: Israel’s Bargain with The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,2010, p.7.
427Robert Munn to Mr. Sisco,"Scheduling of Visit to Dimona Reactor," June12,1970. Secret/Exdis. RG59, RecordsRelating to Israel and Arab-Israeli Affairs,1951-1976, box26, NSSM-40.
428（美）西摩·赫什著，吴聿衡等译：《权力的代价：尼克松执政时期的基辛格》，国际文化出版公司，1991年出版，第191页。
429Paul Charles Merkley, American President, Religion, and Israel: The Heirs of Cyrus, Westport and London,Praeger Publishers,2004, p.63.
430Robert Dallek, Nixon and Kissinger: Partners in Power, New York, Harper Collins Publishers,2007, p.169-171.
431（美）亨利·基辛格著，张志明等译：《动乱年代：基辛格回忆录》（第一册），世界知识出版社，北京，1983年出版，第253－254页。
432（美）亨利·基辛格著，陈瑶华等译：《白宫岁月》（第一册），世界知识出版社，北京，2003年出版，第450页。
433（美）亨利·基辛格著，张志明等译：《动乱年代：基辛格回忆录》（第一册），世界知识出版社，北京，1983年出版，第254页。
434（美）理查德·尼克松著，范建民等译：《超越和平》，世界知识出版社，北京，1999年出版，第160页。
435（美）沃尔特·艾萨克森著，刘汉生等译：《基辛格：大国博弈的背后》，国际文化出版公司，北京，2008年出版，第13页。
436Robert Dallek, Nixon and Kissinger: Partners in Power, New York, Harper Collins Publishers,2007, p.171.或参
见（美）沃尔特·艾萨克森著，刘汉生等译：《基辛格：大国博弈的背后》，第414页；（美）亨利·基辛格著，张志明等译：《动乱年代：基辛格回忆录》（第一册），第255页。
437（美）亨利·基辛格著，刘丽媛等译：《动乱年代：基辛格回忆录》（第二册），世界知识出版社，北京，1983年出版，第157页。
439（以）果尔达·梅厄著，章仲远、李佩玉译：《梅厄夫人自传》，新华出版社，北京，1985年出版，第370页。
440（美）理查德·尼克松著，施燕华等译：《领袖们》，海南出版社，海口，2008年出版，第263－264页。
442（美）亨利·基辛格著，陈瑶华等译：《白宫岁月》（第一册），世界知识出版社，北京，2003年出版，第479页。
443（美）亨利·基辛格著，陈瑶华等译：《白宫岁月》（第一册），世界知识出版社，北京，2003年出版，第478页。
444转引自龚洪烈著：《基辛格的外交思想与战略》，南京大学出版社，南京，2009年出版，第314页。
445出生于波兰的以色列政治家，曾任以色列国防军总参谋长、国防部副部长、国防部部长、外交部部长、政府总理等职，现为以色列总统。
446Avner Cohen, Israel and The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,1998, p.24.
447Etel Solingen, Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, Princeton, PrincetonUniversity Press,2007, p.199.
448Zaki Shalom, Israel’s Nuclear Option: Behind the Scenes Diplomacy between Dimona and Washington, Brightonand Portland, Sussex Academic Press,2005, p.168-169.
449Zeev Moaz, Defending the Holy Land: A Critical Analysis of Israel’s Security&Foreign Policy, The Universityof Michigan Press, Ann Arbor,2006, p303.
450Special National Intelligence Estimate4-1-74,"Prospects for Further Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,"23August1974, Top Secret, Excised Copy. MDR release by CIA.http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB240/snie.pdf
451Etel Solingen, Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, Princeton, PrincetonUniversity Press,2007, p.208－209.
452Peter Pry, Israel’s Nuclear Arsenal, Boulder, Colorado and London, Westview Press,1984, p.22.
453Sylvia K. Crosbie, A Tacit Alliance: France and Israel from Suez to the Six Day War, Princeton University Press,Princeton, New Jersey,1974, p.115.
454Jeffrey T. Richelson, Spying on the Bomb: American Nuclear Intelligence from Nazi Germany to Iran and NorthKorea, W. W. Norton&Company, New York,2006, p.239.
455Peter Pry, Israel’s Nuclear Arsenal, Boulder, Colorado and London, Westview Press,1984, p.18.
456Sylvia K. Crosbie, A Tacit Alliance: France and Israel from Suez to the Six Day War, Princeton University Press,Princeton, New Jersey,1974, p.169.
457Peter Pry, Israel’s Nuclear Arsenal, Boulder, Colorado and London, Westview Press,1984, p.24-29.
458Jeffrey T. Richelson, Spying on the Bomb: American Nuclear Intelligence from Nazi Germany to Iran and NorthKorea, W. W. Norton&Company, New York,2006, p.241-242.
459Etel Solingen, Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, Princeton, PrincetonUniversity Press,2007, p.201.
460Avner Cohen, Israel and The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,1998, p.132.
461introduction “Amimut as a national nuclear bargain”, in Avner Cohen, The Worst-Kept Secret: Israel’s Bargainwith The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,2010, p.XXXII.
462Zeev Moaz, Defending the Holy Land: A Critical Analysis of Israel’s Security&Foreign Policy, The Universityof Michigan Press, Ann Arbor,2006, p306.
463Avner Cohen,“Peres: Peacemaker, Nuclear Pioneer”, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist, May/June,1996.
464"The Issues for Decision," n.d.[Early July1969]. Top Secret/Nodis/Sensitive. NPMP, NSCF, box604, Israel Vol II.
465Avner Cohen, The Worst-Kept Secret: Israel’s Bargain with The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,2010, p.86-87.
466有学者提出，1965年的“六日战争”正是以色列为了保全“核计划”而采取的预防性攻击行动。参见IsabellaGinor and Gideon Remez, Foxbats over Dimona: The Soviets’ Nuclear Gamble in the Six-Day War, New Haven andLondon, Yale University Press,2007; Thomas C. Reed and Danny B. Stillman, The Nuclear Express, A PoliticalHistory of the Bomb and Its Proliferation, Minneapolis, Zenith Press,2009, p.120.
467Theodore L. Eliot, State Department Executive Secretary, to Henry Kissinger,"Briefing Book-Visit of Mrs. GoldaMeir," September19,1969, enclosing "Background-Israel's Nuclear Weapon and Missile Programs." TopSecret/Nodis. Department of State Records, Subject-Numeric Files,1967-1969, Pol7Isr.
468Richardson to President,"Israel's Nuclear Program," with memorandum of conversation attached, August1,1969,Top Secret/Nodis. NPMP, NSCF, box604, Israel Vol II.
469Joseph J. Sisco to the Secretary,"Israel's Nuclear Policy and Implications for the United States," April3,1969.Secret/Nodis. Department of State Records,1967-1969, DEF12Isr. Or "The Issues for Decision," n.d.[Early July1969]. Top Secret/Nodis/Sensitive. NPMP, NSCF, box604, Israel Vol II.
470Joseph J. Sisco to the Secretary,"Israel's Nuclear Policy and Implications for the United States," April3,1969.Secret/Nodis. Department of State Records,1967-1969, DEF12Isr
471"The Issues for Decision," n.d.[Early July1969]. Top Secret/Nodis/Sensitive. NPMP, NSCF, box604, Israel Vol II.
472Sylvia K. Crosbie, A Tacit Alliance: France and Israel from Suez to the Six Day War, Princeton University Press,Princeton, New Jersey,1974, p.163.
473Michael Karpin, The Bomb in the Basement: How Israel Went Nuclear and What That Means for the World,New York, London, Sydney and Toronto, Simon&Schuster Paperbacks,2006, p.316.
474"The Issues for Decision," n.d.[Early July1969]. Top Secret/Nodis/Sensitive. NPMP, NSCF, box604, Israel Vol II.
475Department of State, Subject:“Indian Capability and Likelihood to Produce Atomic Energy”, June29,1961. Secret.Decimal File1960-1963, Central File of the Department of State, Record Group59, National Archives and RecordsAdministration (NARA).
476Office of Scientific Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency,“Indian Nuclear Energy Program”, February18,1958.Confidential. Freedom of Information Act Request.
477Office of Scientific Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency,“Indian Nuclear Energy Program”, February18,1958.Confidential. Freedom of Information Act Request.
478Department of State, Subject:“Indian Capability and Likelihood to Produce Atomic Energy”, June29,1961. Secret.Decimal File1960-1963, Central File of the Department of State, Record Group59, National Archives and RecordsAdministration (NARA).
479National Intelligence Estimate, NIE4-3-61,"Nuclear Weapons and Delivery Capabilities of Free World CountriesOther than the US and UK," September21,1961. Microfiche supplement to U.S. Department of State, ForeignRelations of the United States,1961-1963, Volume VII, Arms Control and Disarmament (Washington, D.C., U.S.Government Printing Office,1997)
480National Intelligence Estimate Number4-63,“Likelihood and Consequences of a Proliferation of Nuclear WeaponsSystems”, June28,1963, secret, excised copy. CIA FOIA appeal release.
481Central Intelligence Agency, Subject:“Indian Government Policy on Development of Nuclear Weapon”, October
24,1964.[Classification Redacted]. Freedom of Information Act Request.
482Office of Scientific Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency,“Indian Nuclear Energy Program”, November6,1964.Secret. Freedom of Information Act Request.
483Donald F. Chamberlain, Office of Scientific Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, to Charles E. Johnson,National Security Council, Subject:“The Indian Nuclear Weapons Capability”, October18,1965. Secret. Freedom ofInformation Act Request.
484Donald F. Chamberlain, Office of Scientific Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, to Charles E. Johnson,National Security Council, Subject:“The Indian Nuclear Weapons Capability”, October18,1965. Secret. Freedom ofInformation Act Request.
485Director of Central Intelligence, SNIE31-1-65,“India's Nuclear Weapons Policy”, October21,1965. Secret.Freedom of Information Act Request.
486Director of Central Intelligence, SNIE31-1-65,“India's Nuclear Weapons Policy”, October21,1965. Secret.Freedom of Information Act Request.
487Director of Central Intelligence, SNIE31-1-65,“India's Nuclear Weapons Policy”, October21,1965. Secret.Freedom of Information Act Request.
488NIE4-66,"The Likelihood of Further Nuclear Proliferation," January20,1966, Secret, excised copy. Lyndon B.Johnson Library, mandatory review release; currently under appeal.
489NIE4-66,"The Likelihood of Further Nuclear Proliferation," January20,1966, Secret, excised copy. Lyndon B.Johnson Library, mandatory review release; currently under appeal.
490State Department Telegram Regarding Estimated Cost of Indian Nuclear Weapon Program, May24,1966
(SECRET). Subject-Numeric File,1964-1966; Central Files of the Department of State, Record Group59; NationalArchives, Washington, D.C.
491State Department Telegram Regarding Estimated Cost of Indian Nuclear Weapon Program, May24,1966
(SECRET). Subject-Numeric File,1964-1966; Central Files of the Department of State, Record Group59; NationalArchives, Washington, D.C.
492Memorandum from the State Department, Ambassador at Large:“Indian Nuclear Weapons Capability,” January30,1965(SECRET). Subject-Numeric File,1964-1966; Central Files of the Department of State, Record Group59;National Archives, Washington, D.C.
493“核扩散委员会致总统的报告”，1965年1月21日，载周建明、王成至主编：《美国国家安全战略解密文献选编（1945－1972）》（第二册），社会科学文献出版社，北京，2010年出版，第675页。
494State Department Memorandum for the President:“NSC Meeting, June9,1966,” June7,1966(SECRET).Subject-Numeric File,1964-1966; Central Files of the Department of State, Record Group59; National Archives,Washington, D.C.
495State Department Memorandum for the President:“NSC Meeting, June9,1966,” June7,1966(SECRET).Subject-Numeric File,1964-1966; Central Files of the Department of State, Record Group59; National Archives,Washington, D.C.
496State Department Memorandum for the President:“NSC Meeting, June9,1966,” June7,1966(SECRET).Subject-Numeric File,1964-1966; Central Files of the Department of State, Record Group59; National Archives,Washington, D.C.
497State Department Memorandum for the President:“NSC Meeting, June9,1966,” June7,1966(SECRET).Subject-Numeric File,1964-1966; Central Files of the Department of State, Record Group59; National Archives,Washington, D.C.
498“犁头计划”是在1956－1957年由加州大学劳伦斯放射性实验室发起的一项国际核能合作项目，该项目旨在探索和平目的的核爆炸，并与“无核国家”共享这一技术。参见Sampooran Singh, India and The Nuclear Bomb,New Delhi, S. Chand&Co. Ltd, Ram Nagar,1971, p.165-166.
499State Department Memorandum for the President:“NSC Meeting, June9,1966,” June7,1966(SECRET).Subject-Numeric File,1964-1966; Central Files of the Department of State, Record Group59; National Archives,Washington, D.C.
500State Department Memorandum for the President:“NSC Meeting, June9,1966,” June7,1966(SECRET).Subject-Numeric File,1964-1966; Central Files of the Department of State, Record Group59; National Archives,Washington, D.C.
501Memorandum for the Secretary of Defense:“The Indian Nuclear Weapons Problem: Security Aspects,” January4,1967, attached to a Letter from Morton H. Halperin, Special Assistant to the Secretary of Defense, to Douglas Heck ofthe State Department (SECRET). Subject-Numeric File,1967-1969; Central Files of the Department of State, RecordGroup59; National Archives, Washington, D.C.
502Memorandum of Conversation from the State Department:“Non-Proliferation Treaty; Assurances to Non NuclearPowers; Latin American Nuclear Free Zone,” June23,1967(Secret). Subject-Numeric File,1967-1969; Central Filesof the Department of State, Record Group59; National Archives, Washington, D.C.
503Jeffrey T. Richelson, Spying on the Bomb: American Nuclear Intelligence from Nazi Germany to Iran and NorthKorea, W. W. Norton&Company, New York,2006, p.230.
504U.S. Embassy New Delhi Airgram A-540to Department of State,"Canadians Warn GOI on NPT,"12December1967, Secret. National Archives, Record Group59, Records of the Department of State,1967-1969Subject-NumericFiles, DEF18-6.
505U.S. Embassy New Delhi Airgram A-540to Department of State,"Canadians Warn GOI on NPT,"12December1967, Secret. National Archives, Record Group59, Records of the Department of State,1967-1969Subject-NumericFiles, DEF18-6.
506U.S. Mission to Geneva Cable3048to State Department,3April1968, Secret. National Archives, Record Group59,Records of the Department of State,1967-1969Subject-Numeric Files, DEF18-6.
507Ernest W. Lefever, Nuclear Arms in the Third World: U.S. Policy Dilemma, Washington, Brookings Institution,1979, p.25.
508Ernest W. Lefever, Nuclear Arms in the Third World: U.S. Policy Dilemma, Washington, Brookings Institution,1979, p.25.
509Written Answers by Prime Minister Mrs. Indira Gandhi in the Lok Sabha,15November1972, J. P. Jain edited,Nuclear India, Vol.II, New Delhi, Radiant Publishers,1974, p.327.
510State Department cable3088to Embassy New Delhi,6January1972, Secret. U.S. National Archives, RecordGroup59, Subject-Numeric Files1970-1973[hereinafter RG59, SN70-73] Def12-1India.
511U.S. Embassy Airgram A-20to State Department,"India's Nuclear Intentions,"21January1972, Secret, Excisedcopy. RG59, SN70-73, Def18-8India.
512U.S. Embassy Airgram A-20to State Department,"India's Nuclear Intentions,"21January1972, Secret, Excisedcopy. RG59, SN70-73, Def18-8India.
513U.S. Embassy Airgram A-20to State Department,"India's Nuclear Intentions,"21January1972, Secret, Excisedcopy. RG59, SN70-73, Def18-8India.
514State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research Intelligence Note,"India to Go Nuclear?"14January1972,Secret. RG59, SN70-73, Def18-8India.
515State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research Intelligence Note,"India to Go Nuclear?"14January1972,Secret. RG59, SN70-73, Def18-8India.
516State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research Intelligence Note,"India to Go Nuclear?"14January1972,Secret. RG59, SN70-73, Def18-8India.
517Memorandum from Ray Cline, Director, Bureau of Intelligence and Research, to Director of Central IntelligenceRichard Helms, enclosing "Possibility of an Indian Nuclear Test,"23February1972, Secret. U.S. State Department,Foreign Relations of the United States,1969-1976Volume E-7, Documents on South Asia,1969-1972, Document228.
518Memorandum from Ray Cline, Director, Bureau of Intelligence and Research, to Director of Central IntelligenceRichard Helms, enclosing "Possibility of an Indian Nuclear Test,"23February1972, Secret. U.S. State Department,Foreign Relations of the United States,1969-1976Volume E-7, Documents on South Asia,1969-1972, Document228.
519Request for a NSSM, Henry Kissinger to President Nixon,"Proposed NSSM on the Implications of an IndianNuclear Test," n.d., with cover memorandum from Richard T. Kennedy,4July1972, Secret. Nixon Presidential Library,National Security Council Institutional Files, box H-192, NSSM-156[1of2].
520Request for a NSSM, Henry Kissinger to President Nixon,"Proposed NSSM on the Implications of an IndianNuclear Test," n.d., with cover memorandum from Richard T. Kennedy,4July1972, Secret. Nixon Presidential Library,National Security Council Institutional Files, box H-192, NSSM-156[1of2].
521Special National Intelligence Estimate31-72,"Indian Nuclear Developments and their Likely Implications",3August1972, Secret. Foreign Relations of the United States,1969-1976Volume E-7, Documents on South Asia,1969-1972, Document298.
522Special National Intelligence Estimate31-72,"Indian Nuclear Developments and their Likely Implications",3August1972, Secret. Foreign Relations of the United States,1969-1976Volume E-7, Documents on South Asia,1969-1972, Document298.
523H. Daniel Brewster to Herman Pollack,"Indian Nuclear Developments,"16January1973, enclosing "Summary,"1September1972, Secret. RG59, SN70-73, AE6India.
524H. Daniel Brewster to Herman Pollack,"Indian Nuclear Developments,"16January1973, enclosing "Summary,"1September1972, Secret. RG59, SN70-73, AE6India.
525U.S. Embassy India cable5797to State Department forwarding Bombay consulate cable983,"India's NuclearPosition,"17May1973, Confidential. AAD1973.
526Jeffrey T. Richelson, Spying on the Bomb: American Nuclear Intelligence from Nazi Germany to Iran and NorthKorea, W. W. Norton&Company, New York,2006, p.232.
527"The Likelihood of an Early Test [at] a Lower Level than Previous Years", U.S. Embassy India cable0743to StateDepartment,"India's Nuclear Intentions,"18January1974, Confidential.http://static.history.state.gov/frus/frus1969-76ve08/pdf/d156.pdf
528Statement by U.S. Reprehensive Martin in the CCD,21May1974, in J. P. Jain edited, Nuclear India, Vol.II, NewDelhi, Radiant Publishers,1974, p.343.
529Department of State,“Assessment of Indian Nuclear Test”, June5,1974. Secret. Freedom of Information ActRequest.
530Bureau of Intelligence and Research Intelligence Note:“India: Uncertainty over Nuclear Policy,” June13,1974
(CONFIDENTIAL). Declassified in response to a Freedom of Information Act request.
531Ernest W. Lefever, Nuclear Arms in the Third World: U.S. Policy Dilemma, Washington, Brookings Institution,1979, p.36.
532Leonard S. Spector, Nuclear Proliferation Today, New York, Vintage Books,1984, p.36.
533Ernest W. Lefever, Nuclear Arms in the Third World: U.S. Policy Dilemma, Washington, Brookings Institution,1979, p.36-37.
534Special National Intelligence Estimate4-1-74,"Prospects for Further Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,"23August1974, Top Secret, Excised Copy. MDR release by CIA.http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB240/snie.pdf
535Special National Intelligence Estimate4-1-74,"Prospects for Further Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,"23August1974, Top Secret, Excised Copy. MDR release by CIA.http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB240/snie.pdf
536Daniel O. Graham, Memorandum for: Director, Defense Intelligence Agency [and others], Subject:“ForthcomingCommunity Post-Mortem Report Concerning the Indian Nuclear Detonation”, May24,1974. Secret. CIA RecordsSearch Tool (CREST), National Archives and Records Administration (NARA), College Park, Md.
537Intelligence Community Staff, Post Mortem Report,“An Examination of the Intelligence Community'sPerformance Before the Indian Nuclear Test of May1974”, July1974, Top Secret, Excised copy. Mandatory reviewrequest; release by ISCAP.
538Intelligence Community Staff, Post Mortem Report,“An Examination of the Intelligence Community'sPerformance Before the Indian Nuclear Test of May1974”, July1974, Top Secret, Excised copy. Mandatory reviewrequest; release by ISCAP.
539Chief Product Review Division/Intelligence Community Staff, Memorandum for:[Redacted], Subject:“ICResponses to Post-Mortem Recommendations”, January15,1975. Secret. CREST, NARA, College Park, Md.
540Special National Intelligence Estimate31-72,"Indian Nuclear Developments and their Likely Implications",3August1972, Secret. Foreign Relations of the United States,1969-1976Volume E-7, Documents on South Asia,1969-1972, Document298.
541Special National Intelligence Estimate31-72,"Indian Nuclear Developments and their Likely Implications",3August1972, Secret. Foreign Relations of the United States,1969-1976Volume E-7, Documents on South Asia,1969-1972, Document298.
542Department of State,“Assessment of Indian Nuclear Test”, June5,1974. Secret. Freedom of Information ActRequest.
543Director of Central Intelligence, SNIE31-1-65,“India's Nuclear Weapons Policy”, October21,1965. Secret.Freedom of Information Act Request.
544Special National Intelligence Estimate31-72,"Indian Nuclear Developments and their Likely Implications",3August1972, Secret. Foreign Relations of the United States,1969-1976Volume E-7, Documents on South Asia,1969-1972, Document298.
545State Department cable40378to U.S. Embassy Ottawa,"Indian Nuclear Intentions,"9March1972, Secret. RG59,SN70-73, AE1India.
546State Department cable50634to U.S. Embassy Canada,"Indian Nuclear Intentions,"24March1972, Secret. RG
59, SN70-73, AE1India.
547Memorandum of Conversation,"Indian Nuclear Developments,"21September1972, Secret. RG59, SN70-73, Def
12India.
548H. Daniel Brewster to Herman Pollack,"Indian Nuclear Developments,"16January1973, enclosing "Summary,"1September1972, Secret. RG59, SN70-73, AE6India.
549Special National Intelligence Estimate31-72,"Indian Nuclear Developments and their Likely Implications",3August1972, Secret. Foreign Relations of the United States,1969-1976Volume E-7, Documents on South Asia,1969-1972, Document298.
550Memorandum of Conversation,"Indian Nuclear Developments,"21September1972, Secret. RG59, SN70-73, Def
12India.
551H. Daniel Brewster to Herman Pollack,"Indian Nuclear Developments,"16January1973, enclosing "Summary,"1September1972, Secret. RG59, SN70-73, AE6India.
552Request for a NSSM, Henry Kissinger to President Nixon,"Proposed NSSM on the Implications of an IndianNuclear Test," n.d., with cover memorandum from Richard T. Kennedy,4July1972, Secret. Nixon Presidential Library,National Security Council Institutional Files, box H-192, NSSM-156[1of2].
553H. Daniel Brewster to Herman Pollack,"Indian Nuclear Developments,"16January1973, enclosing "Summary,"1September1972, Secret. RG59, SN70-73, AE6India.
554（印）克拉简德拉辛格著，周水玉、李淼译：《印度洋的政治》，商务印书馆，北京，1980年出版，第108－109页。
555（美）亨利·基辛格著，杨静予等译：《白宫岁月》（第3册），世界知识出版社，北京，2003年出版，第1087页。
557（印）因德尔马尔豪特拉著，施美华等译：《英迪拉甘地传》，世界知识出版社，北京，1992年出版，第
144页。
558（美）亨利·基辛格著，杨静予等译：《白宫岁月》（第3册），世界知识出版社，北京，2003年出版，第985－986页。
559指根据美国公共法第480款所提供的对外援助项目，该项目主要是向印度提供食物方面的长期援助。
560Special National Intelligence Estimate31-72,"Indian Nuclear Developments and their Likely Implications",3August1972, Secret. Foreign Relations of the United States,1969-1976Volume E-7, Documents on South Asia,1969-1972, Document298.
561Steve Weissman and Herbert Krosney, The Islamic Bomb: the Nuclear Threat to Israel and the Middle East, NewYork, Times Books,1981, p.131.
562Steve Weissman and Herbert Krosney, The Islamic Bomb: the Nuclear Threat to Israel and the Middle East, NewYork, Times Books,1981, p.134.
563（美）亨利·基辛格著，杨静予等译：《白宫岁月》（第3册），世界知识出版社，北京，2003年出版，第1086页。
565前引书，第1118页。
566Leonard S. Spector, Nuclear Proliferation Today, New York, Vintage Books,1984, p.37.
567（美）亨利·基辛格著，刘丽嫒等译：《动乱年代：基辛格回忆录》（第3册），世界知识出版社，北京，1983年出版。第366－368页。
568Request for a NSSM, Henry Kissinger to President Nixon,"Proposed NSSM on the Implications of an IndianNuclear Test," n.d., with cover memorandum from Richard T. Kennedy,4July1972, Secret. Nixon Presidential Library,National Security Council Institutional Files, box H-192, NSSM-156[1of2]
569J. P. Jain, Nuclear India, Vol.I, New Delhi, Radiant Publishers,1974, p.144.
570（美）理查德·尼克松著，裘克安等译：《尼克松回忆录》（中册），世界知识出版社，北京，2001年出版，第630－631页。
571（美）亨利·基辛格著，杨静予等译：《白宫岁月》（第3册），世界知识出版社，北京，2003年出版，第1166页。
572（美）理查德·尼克松著，伍任等译：《尼克松回忆录》（上册），世界知识出版社，北京，2001年出版，第158页。
573（美）理查德·尼克松著，裘克安等译：《尼克松回忆录》（中册），世界知识出版社，北京，2001年出版，第637页。
574（美）理查德·尼克松著，施燕华等译：《领袖们》，海南出版社，海口，2008年出版，第254页。
575（美）亨利·基辛格著，杨静予等译：《白宫岁月》（第3册），世界知识出版社，北京，2003年出版，第1085－1086页。
576（美）亨利·基辛格著，杨静予等译：《白宫岁月》（第3册），世界知识出版社，北京，2003年出版，第1121－1125页。
577Shyam Bhatia, India’s Nuclear Bomb, New Delhi, Vikas Publishing House, p.70-71.
578祁学远编著，《世界有核国家的核力量与核政策》，军事科学出版社，北京，1991年出版，第156页。
579Donald F. Chamberlain, Office of Scientific Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, to Charles E. Johnson,National Security Council, Subject:“The Indian Nuclear Weapons Capability”, October18,1965. Secret. Freedom ofInformation Act Request.
580Director of Central Intelligence, SNIE31-1-65,“India's Nuclear Weapons Policy”, October21,1965. Secret.Source: Freedom of Information Act Request.
581Special National Intelligence Estimate31-72,"Indian Nuclear Developments and their Likely Implications",3August1972, Secret. Foreign Relations of the United States,1969-1976Volume E-7, Documents on South Asia,1969-1972, Document298.
582Special National Intelligence Estimate31-72,"Indian Nuclear Developments and their Likely Implications",3August1972, Secret. Foreign Relations of the United States,1969-1976Volume E-7, Documents on South Asia,1969-1972, Document298.
583Thomas C. Reed and Danny B. Stillman, The Nuclear Express, A Political History of the Bomb and ItsProliferation, Minneapolis, Zenith Press,2009, p.159.
584赵干城著：《印度大国地位与大国外交》，上海人民出版社，上海，2009年出版，第92页。
585顾德欣、牛永军主编：《核幽灵的震荡：二十世纪核问题回顾与思考》，国防大学出版社，北京，1999年出版，第127页；或参见曹永胜、罗健、王京地著：《南亚大象：印度军事战略发展与现状》，解放军出版社，北京，2002年出版，第172－173页；Steve Weissman and Herbert Krosney, The Islamic Bomb: the Nuclear Threat toIsrael and the Middle East, New York, Times Books,1981, p.131-132.
586Jacques E. C. Hymans, The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation: Identity, Emotions and Foreign Policy,Cambridge, Cambridge University Press,2006, p.176-177.
587Praful Bidwai and Achin Vanaik, New Nukes: India, Pakistan and Global Nuclear Disarmament, New York,Olive Branch Press,2000, p.57.
588（美）斯蒂芬柯亨著，刘满贵等译：《大象与孔雀：解读印度大战略》，新华出版社，北京，2002年出版，第172页。
590Leonard S. Spector, Nuclear Proliferation Today, New York, Vintage Books,1984, p.27.
591Broadcast by H. J. Bhabha over All India Radio on United Nations Day,24October1964, J. P. Jain edited, NuclearIndia, Vol.II, New Delhi, Radiant Publishers,1974, p.158-161.
592Broadcast by H. J. Bhabha over All India Radio on United Nations Day,24October1964, J. P. Jain edited, NuclearIndia, Vol.II, New Delhi, Radiant Publishers,1974, p.158-161.
593关于这一时期印度核辩论的分析，可参见（美）斯蒂芬柯亨著，刘满贵等译：《大象与孔雀：解读印度大战略》，新华出版社，北京，2002年出版，第169－176页； Sampooran Singh, India and The Nuclear Bomb, New
594赵干城著：《印度大国地位与大国外交》，上海人民出版社，上海，2009年出版，第93页。
595（美）斯蒂芬柯亨著，刘满贵等译：《大象与孔雀：解读印度大战略》，新华出版社，北京，2002年出版，第169页。
596Director of Central Intelligence, SNIE31-1-65,“India's Nuclear Weapons Policy”, October21,1965. Secret.Source: Freedom of Information Act Request.
597Special National Intelligence Estimate31-72,"Indian Nuclear Developments and their Likely Implications",3August1972, Secret. Foreign Relations of the United States,1969-1976Volume E-7, Documents on South Asia,1969-1972, Document298.
598（美）斯蒂芬柯亨著，刘满贵等译：《大象与孔雀：解读印度大战略》，新华出版社，北京，2002年出版，第46页。
599Shelton L. Williams, The U.S., India, and The Bomb, Baltimore, The John Hopkins Press,1969, p.29.
600NIE4-67,"Proliferation of Missile Delivery Systems for Nuclear Weapons,"26January1967, secret, excised copy,as released under appeal, March2005. Lyndon B. Johnson Library, National Security Files, National IntelligenceEstimates, box1,4Arms and Disarmament.
601Jacques E. C. Hymans, The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation: Identity, Emotions and Foreign Policy,Cambridge, Cambridge University Press,2006, p.181-180.
602（美）麦乔治·邦迪著，褚广友等译：《美国核战略》，世界知识出版社，北京，1991年出版，第693页。雷蒙德加特霍夫同样把1974年印度核试验归因于美国1971年支持巴基斯坦的政策，参见Raymond L. Garthoff,Détente and Confrontation: American-Soviet Relations from Nixon to Reagon, Washington,1985, p.286.
603Ernest W. Lefever, Nuclear Arms in the Third World: U.S. Policy Dilemma, Washington, Brookings Institution,1979, p.33.
604（美）斯蒂芬柯亨著，刘满贵等译：《大象与孔雀：解读印度大战略》，新华出版社，北京，2002年出版，第152-153页。
605赵干城著：《印度大国地位与大国外交》，上海人民出版社，上海，2009年出版，第101页。
606"A Concerted Effort by India to Conceal Preparations May Well Succeed" State Department Bureau of Intelligenceand Research Intelligence Note,"India to Go Nuclear?"14January1972, Secret. RG59, SN70-73, Def18-8India.
607Leonard S. Spector, Nuclear Proliferation Today, New York, Vintage Books,1984, p.28.
608Leonard S. Spector, Nuclear Proliferation Today, New York, Vintage Books,1984, p.28.
609Statement by the Indian Representative Azim Husain at the Conference of Non-Nuclear Weapons States,12September1968, in J. P. Jain edited, Nuclear India, Vol.II, New Delhi, Radiant Publishers,1974, p.211-213.
610赵干城著：《印度大国地位与大国外交》，上海人民出版社，上海，2009年出版，第96页。
611Special National Intelligence Estimate4-1-74,"Prospects for Further Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,"23August1974, Top Secret, Excised Copy. MDR release by CIA.
612Ernest W. Lefever, Nuclear Arms in the Third World: U.S. Policy Dilemma, Washington, Brookings Institution,1979, p.33.
613Leonard S. Spector, Nuclear Proliferation Today, New York, Vintage Books,1984, p.28.
614Thomas C. Reed and Danny B. Stillman, The Nuclear Express, A Political History of the Bomb and ItsProliferation, Minneapolis, Zenith Press,2009, p.159.
615George Perkovich, India’s Nuclear Bomb: The Impact on Global Proliferation, Berkeley, Los Angeles andLondon, University of California Press,1999, p.171-172.
616（美）斯蒂芬柯亨著，刘满贵等译：《大象与孔雀：解读印度大战略》，新华出版社，北京，2002年出版，第142页。
617Ernest W. Lefever, Nuclear Arms in the Third World: U.S. Policy Dilemma, Washington, Brookings Institution,1979, p.33.
618U.S. Embassy India cable6598to State Department,"India's Nuclear Explosion: Why Now?"18May1974, Secret.AAD.
619U.S. Embassy India cable6598to State Department,"India's Nuclear Explosion: Why Now?"18May1974, Secret.AAD.
620（印）因德尔马尔豪特拉著，施美华等译：《英迪拉甘地传》，世界知识出版社，北京，1992年出版，第171页。
621Bureau of Intelligence and Research Intelligence Note:“India: Uncertainty over Nuclear Policy,” June13,1974(CONFIDENTIAL). Declassified in response to a Freedom of Information Act request.
622Jacques E. C. Hymans, The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation: Identity, Emotions and Foreign Policy,Cambridge, Cambridge University Press,2006, p.188.
624参见Ram Nath Singh, India: The Sixth Nuclear Power, A Comparative Account of Her Potential Nuclear Power,Patna, Chintamani Prakashan,1978.
625Director of Central Intelligence, SNIE31-1-65,“India's Nuclear Weapons Policy”, October21,1965. Secret.Source: Freedom of Information Act Request.
626这三个利益分别是：限制拥有核能力国家的数量；一个稳定的南亚；和印度发展令双方满意的关系。参见H. Daniel Brewster to Herman Pollack,"Indian Nuclear Developments,"16January1973, enclosing "Summary,"1September1972, Secret. RG59, SN70-73, AE6India.
627U.S. Embassy India cable0743to State Department,"India's Nuclear Intentions,"18January1974, Confidential.http://static.history.state.gov/frus/frus1969-76ve08/pdf/d156.pdf
628赵恒著：《印度核试验的历史分析》，安徽大学出版社，合肥，2007年出版，第114页。
629Ernest W. Lefever, Nuclear Arms in the Third World: U.S. Policy Dilemma, Washington, Brookings Institution,1979, p.36.
630Department of State,“Assessment of Indian Nuclear Test”, June5,1974. Secret. Freedom of Information ActRequest.
631Special National Intelligence Estimate4-1-74,"Prospects for Further Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons",23August1974, Top Secret, Excised Copy. MDR release by CIA.http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB240/snie.pdf
632Steve Weissman and Herbert Krosney, The Islamic Bomb: The Nuclear Threat to Israel and the Middle East,New York and Toronto, Times Book,1982, p.132-133.
633Leonard S. Spector, Nuclear Proliferation Today, New York, Vintage Books,1984, p.29-30.
634Special National Intelligence Estimate31-72,"Indian Nuclear Developments and their Likely Implications",3August1972, Secret. Foreign Relations of the United States,1969-1976Volume E-7, Documents on South Asia,1969-1972, Document298.
635Richardson to President,"Israel's Nuclear Program," with memorandum of conversation attached, August1,1969,Top Secret/Nodis. NPMP, NSCF, box604, Israel Vol II.
636Special National Intelligence Estimate31-72,"Indian Nuclear Developments and their Likely Implications",3August1972, Secret. Foreign Relations of the United States,1969-1976Volume E-7, Documents on South Asia,1969-1972, Document298.
637Steve Weissman and Herbert Krosney, The Islamic Bomb: the Nuclear Threat to Israel and the Middle East, NewYork, Times Books,1981, p.134.
638（美）詹姆斯·多尔蒂、小罗伯特·普法尔茨格拉夫著，阎学通等译：《争论中的国际关系理论》（第五版），世界知识出版社，北京，2003年出版，第644页。
639Request for a NSSM, Henry Kissinger to President Nixon,"Proposed NSSM on the Implications of an IndianNuclear Test," n.d., with cover memorandum from Richard T. Kennedy,4July1972, Secret. Nixon Presidential Library,National Security Council Institutional Files, box H-192, NSSM-156[1of2]
640Theodore L. Eliot, State Department Executive Secretary, to Henry Kissinger,"Briefing Book-Visit of Mrs. GoldaMeir," September19,1969, enclosing "Background-Israel's Nuclear Weapon and Missile Programs." TopSecret/Nodis. SN67-69, Pol7Isr.
641Robert Dallek, Nixon and Kissinger: Partners in Power, New York, Harper Collins Publishers,2007, p.176.
642Francis J. Gavin,“Nuclear Nixon: Ironies, Puzzles, and the Triumph of Realpolitik”, Fredrik Logevall and AndrewPreston edited, Nixon in the World, American Foreign Relations:1969-1977, Oxford, Oxford University Press,2008,p.128.
643（美）麦乔治·邦迪著，褚广友等译：《美国核战略》，世界知识出版社，北京，1991年出版，第690-691页。
644U.S. Embassy Taiwan cable6272to State Department,"ROC's Nuclear Intentions: Conversation with PremierChiang Ching-kuo,"15September1976, Secret Nodis.
645（美）理查德·尼克松著，刘炳章等译：《角斗场上：尼克松回忆录》，新华出版社，北京，1990年出版，第395页。
646Memorandum for the Secretary of Defense:“The Indian Nuclear Weapons Problem: Security Aspects,” January4,1967, attached to a Letter from Morton H. Halperin, Special Assistant to the Secretary of Defense, to Douglas Heck ofthe State Department (SECRET). Subject-Numeric File,1967-1969; Central Files of the Department of State, RecordGroup59; National Archives, Washington, D.C.
647（美）麦乔治·邦迪著，褚广友等译：《美国核战略》，世界知识出版社，北京，1991年出版，第691页。
648（美）亨利基辛格著，国际关系研究所编译室译：《选择的必要：美国外交政策的前景》，世界知识出版社，1962年出版，北京，第258页。
649（美）西摩·赫什著，吴聿衡等译：《权力的代价：尼克松执政时期的基辛格》，国际文化出版公司，北京，1991年出版，第191页。
650Francis J. Gavin,“Nuclear Nixon: Ironies, Puzzles, and the Triumph of Realpolitik”, Fredrik Logevall and AndrewPreston edited, Nixon in the World, American Foreign Relations:1969-1977, Oxford, Oxford University Press,2008,p.139.
651（美）约翰J米尔斯海默、斯蒂芬M沃尔特著，王传兴译：《以色列游说集团与美国对外政策》，上海人民出版社，上海，2009年出版，第92页。
652Avner Cohen, Israel and The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,1998, p.4-5.
653Leonard S. Spector, Nuclear Proliferation Today, New York, Vintage Books,1984, p.37.
654Francis J. Gavin,“Nuclear Nixon: Ironies, Puzzles, and the Triumph of Realpolitik”, Fredrik Logevall and AndrewPreston edited, Nixon in the World, American Foreign Relations:1969-1977, Oxford, Oxford University Press,2008,p.140.
655Francis J. Gavin,“Nuclear Nixon: Ironies, Puzzles, and the Triumph of Realpolitik”, Fredrik Logevall and AndrewPreston edited, Nixon in the World, American Foreign Relations:1969-1977, Oxford, Oxford University Press,2008,p.127-128.
656国际原子能机构前总干事穆罕默德巴拉迪指出：伊拉克战争是一场“没有必要的战争”，美英在2001年的911后就已经确定了进攻伊拉克的计划，所谓“伊拉克拥有大规模杀伤性武器”只是一个子虚乌有的谎言。而利比亚早在2004年前后也已经放弃了核武器计划，并主动要求国际原子能机构进行核查。参见（埃及）穆罕默德巴拉迪著，蒋宗强译：《谎言与交锋，揭秘全球核较量的真实世界》，中信出版社，北京，2011年。
657Avner Cohen, Israel and The Bomb, New York, Columbia University Press,1998, p.193.
658（美）麦乔治·邦迪著，褚广友等译：《美国核战略》，世界知识出版社，北京，1991年出版，第692页。
659H. Daniel Brewster to Herman Pollack,"Indian Nuclear Developments,"16January1973, enclosing "Summary,"1September1972, Secret. RG59, SN70-73, AE6India.
660所谓“双重标准”，主要是认为美国对敌对友采取了完全不同的政策。如果是完全采用“双重标准”的话，美国不应当反对作为其盟友的英国、法国、以色列，乃至台湾发展核武器，但事实上并非如此。尽管近年来有人提出了“好的核扩散”与“坏的核扩散”的区分，但在实践中并未得到实际执行。关于“双重标准”问题的探讨，可参见赵恒著：《核不扩散机制：历史与理论》，世界知识出版社，北京，2009年出版，第331－342页；路自平编著：《核武器与核战略》，兵器工业出版社，北京，2009年出版，第190页，等等。
661（美）斯蒂芬柯亨著，刘满贵等译：《大象与孔雀：解读印度大战略》，新华出版社，北京，2002年出版，第303-304页。
662Entel Solingen,“The Political Economy of Nuclear Restraint, International Security”, Fall1994(19), p.126-169;或参见Etel Solingen, Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, Princeton, PrincetonUniversity Press,2007, p.276-277.
1. Office of the Historian Bureau of Public Affairs U.S. Department of State,Foreign Relations of United States (FRUS),1969-1976, Washington, D.C.Volume I，Foundations of Foreign Policy,1969-1972；Volume E-2，Documents on Arms Control and Nonproliferation,1969-1972；Volume E-7，Documents on South Asia,1969-1972；Volume E-8，Volume E-8, Documents on South Asia,1973-1976；
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72. Avner Yaniv, Deterrence Without Bomb: The Politics of Israel Strategy,Lexington Books, Lexington and Toronto,1987.
73. Frank Barnaby, The Invisible Bomb: The Nuclear Arms Race in the MiddleEast, London, I. B. Tauris&Co. Ltd Publishers,1989.
74. Mahmoud Karem, A Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone in the Middle East: Problemsand Prospects, New York, Westport and London, Greenwood Press,1988.
75. Taysir N. Nashif, Nuclear Weapons in the Middles East: Dimensions andResponsibilities, Princeton, The Kington Press Inc.,1984.
76. Golda Meir, My Life, G. P. Putnam’s Sons, New York,1975.
77. Sylvia K. Crosbie, A Tacit Alliance: France and Israel from Suez to the SixDay War, Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey,1974.
78. Kaushlendra Mishra, India’s Nuclear Diplomacy, New Delhi, NavyugPublishers&Distributors,2009.
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1.张曙光、周建明编译：《中美解冻与台湾问题：尼克松外交文献选编》，香港中文大学出版社，香港，2008年出版。
2.周建明、王成至主编：《美国国家安全战略解密文献选编（1945－1972）》（1－3册），社会科学文献出版社，北京，2010年出版。
3.（美）理查德·尼克松著，伍任等译：《尼克松回忆录》（上、中、下册），世界知识出版社，北京，2001年出版。
4.（美）理查德·尼克松著，钟伟云译：《真正的和平》，新华出版社，北京，1999年出版。
5.（美）理查德·尼克松著，刘炳章等译：《角斗场上：尼克松回忆录》，新华出版社，北京，1990年出版。
6.（美）亨利·基辛格著，陈瑶华等译：《白宫岁月》（1－4册），世界知识出版社，北京，2003年出版。
7.（美）亨利·基辛格著，张志明等译：《动乱年代：基辛格回忆录》（1－3册），世界知识出版社，北京，1983年出版。
8.（美）沃尔特·艾萨克森著，刘汉生等译：《基辛格：大国博弈的背后》，国际文化出版公司，北京，2008年出版。
9.（美）罗伯特·舒尔茨辛格著，任东来等译：《外交博士基辛格》，世界知识出版社，北京，1992年出版。
10.（俄）阿纳托利·多勃雷宁著，肖敏、王为等译：《信赖：多勃雷宁回忆录》，世界知识出版社，北京，1997年出版。
11.（美）德怀特D艾森豪威尔著，樊迪、静海等译：《艾森豪威尔回忆录》（卷二），东方出版社，北京，2007年出版。
12.（美）小阿瑟M施莱辛格著，仲宜译：《一千天：约翰菲肯尼迪在白宫》，生活读书新知三联书店，北京，1981年出版。
13.威廉姆泰尔菲著，牛景立编译：《肯尼迪》，京华出版社，北京，2009年出版。
14.（美）哈里杜鲁门著，李石译：《杜鲁门回忆录》（上、下卷），东方出版社，北京，2007年出版。
15.（美）陶涵著，林添贵译：《蒋经国传》，新华出版社，北京，2002年出版。
16.（以）果尔达·梅厄著，章仲远、李佩玉译：《梅厄夫人自传》，新华出版社，北京，1985年出版。
17.（以）米迦勒·巴尔－祖海尔，刘瑞祥、杨兆文译：《现代以色列之父：本－古里安传》，中国社会科学出版社，北京，1994年出版。
18.（印）因德尔马尔豪特拉著，施美华等译：《英迪拉甘地传》，世界知识出版社，北京，1992年出版。
19.（印）贾瓦哈拉尔尼赫鲁著，齐文译：《印度的发现》，世界知识出版社，北京，1956年出版。
1、（美）汉斯·摩根索著，肯尼斯·汤普森改写，李晖、孙芳译：《国家间政治：为了权力与和平的斗争》，海南出版社，海口，2008年出版。
2、（美）詹姆斯·多尔蒂、小罗伯特·普法尔茨格拉夫著，阎学通等译：《争论中的国际关系理论》（第五版），世界知识出版社，北京，2003年出版。
3、（美）肯尼斯沃尔兹著，张睿壮、刘丰译：《现实主义与国际政治》，北京大学出版社，北京，2012年出版。
4、(美)小约瑟夫·奈著，张小明译：《理解国际冲突：理论与历史》，上海人民出版社，上海，2002年出版。
5、（美）罗伯特·杰维斯著，秦亚青译：《国际政治中的知觉与错误知觉》，世界知识出版社，北京，2003年出版。
6、（加）罗伯特杰克逊、（丹）乔格索伦森著，吴勇、宋德星译：《国际关系学理论与方法》，天津人民出版社，天津，2008年出版。
7、（美）彼得·卡赞斯坦主编，宋伟、刘铁娃译：《国家安全的文化》，北京大学出版社，北京，2009年出版。
8、（美）伯纳德布罗迪等著，于永安、郭莹译：《绝对武器》，解放军出版社，北京，2005年出版。
9、（法）夏尔－菲利普戴维、路易巴尔塔扎、于斯丹瓦伊斯著，钟震宇译：《美国对外政策：基础、主体与形成》，社会科学文献出版社，北京，2011年出版。
10、（美）杰里尔·A·罗塞蒂著，周启朋等译：《美国对外政策的政治学》，世界知识出版社，北京，1997年出版。
11、（美）罗杰·希尔斯曼、劳拉·高克伦、帕特里夏·A·韦茨曼著，曹大鹏译：《防务与外交决策中的政治》，商务印书馆，北京，2000年出版。
12、（美）约翰·加迪斯著，时殷弘等译：《遏制战略：战后美国国家安全政策评析》，世界知识出版社，北京，2005年出版。
13、（美）雷蒙德加特霍夫著，伍牛、王薇译：《冷战史：遏制与共存备忘录》，新华出版社，北京，2003年出版。
14、（美）麦乔治·邦迪著，褚广友等译：《美国核战略》，世界知识出版社，北京，1991年出版。
15、（美）约翰·纽豪斯著，军事科学院外国军事研究部译：《核时代的战争与和平》，军事科学出版社，北京，1989年出版。
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