中国装备制造业技术选择的协同度研究
摘要
技术选择决定着技术进步的进程，是技术能力提升的关键环节，在技术创新和技术变迁中起着重要作用。在技术经济学研究领域中，技术选择问题已成为研究的核心，涉及到相关领域方方面面的问题。论文从系统协同论的视角出发，综合运用系统理论、协同理论、技术经济学、计量经济学、创新经济学等相关领域的知识体系，利用定性和定量的分析方法，研究技术选择各利益体及其之间的协同作用关系，并构建了技术选择协同测度模型和测度标准；利用规范和实证的分析方法，以中国装备制造业作为实证对象，对装备制造业七大子行业的技术选择协同进行实证分析以及影响因素的面板数据分析。
论文在梳理技术选择相关理论和协同学相关理论的基础上，提出本文研究的切入点。首先构建了技术选择协同模型，分析技术选择各利益体及其之间的协同作用关系，以协同理论为载体，逼近理想排序法为工具，构建技术选择协同测度模型及测度标准；其次对中国装备制造业技术选择现状进行分析并进行初步的原因分析；再次，以中国装备制造业为实证分析对象，建立技术选择协同测度指标体系，对中国装备制造业七大子行业进行技术选择协同测度并进行行业聚类分析；再次，通过选择主体有序和创新系统有序分别对技术选择协同度的影响因素分析，建立面板数据模型，得出影响中国装备制造业技术选择协同度的促进因素和阻碍因素，并进行行业对比。最后，以实证分析结果为依据，从选择主体层面和创新系统层面提出提升中国装备制造业技术选择协同度的若干政策建议。
通过对技术选择各利益体及其之间基本作用关系的分析，认为技术选择各利益体及其之间的相互作用关系构成了创新系统，各利益体间存在着复杂自适应行为，在遵循逻辑斯蒂曲线演进规律的基础上，选择主体对创新基础、创新活动、创新链接和创新环境形成作用力。创新系统在自组织演化过程中，创新基础、创新活动、创新链接和创新环境，通过各利益体间的交互作用、惯例及搜索行为、选择和学习行为对选择主体形成反作用力。
通过介入协同理论对技术选择各利益体间的协同作用关系进行分析，认为技术选择各利益体间协同效应的产生取决于彼此协同作用系数的大小，只有处在合适的范畴内才能产生协同价值，否则将降低协同绩效。技术选择协同是技术选择主体为实现一定的系统目标，在技术选择各利益体相互作用的过程中，综合考虑创新系统内外因素的影响，对各种可能得到的技术手段进行综合比较，从中选取与各利益体最优协同技术体系的过程。
通过构建技术选择协同的测度模型和测度标准，认为技术选择协同的测度为，在一定时空范围内，影响技术选择各利益体间协同价值产生的各因素距各自最佳值的接近程度。技术选择协同的测度标准包括三部分：选择主体有序、创新系统有序及选择主体与创新系统的协同。
通过对中国装备制造业各子行业技术选择协同度的测度值进行分析，认为中国装备制造业七个子行业分为四类，第一类为技术选择协同度低行业群，包括交通运输设备制造业和仪器仪表及文化办公用机械制造业行业群；第二类为技术选择协同度较低行业群，包括电气机械及器材制造业行业群；第三类为技术选择协同度适中行业群，包括通用设备制造和专用设备制造业行业群；第四类为技术选择协同度高行业群，包括金属制品业和电子及通讯设备制造业行业群。
通过对中国装备制造业技术选择协同度的影响因素分析，认为影响中国装备制造业技术选择协同的诸多因素中，引进国内技术资金投入、新产品产出水平、研发软件投入水平、R&D项目平均经费投入、企业间的创新投入水平等因素对中国装备制造业技术选择协同影响最强，是行业技术选择协同价值产生的核心序参量，决定着行业创新系统演进的渐变过程和突变结果。其中R&D项目平均经费投入对行业技术选择协同的影响最大。同时中国装备制造业技术选择协同受到引进国外技术资金投入、引进国外技术消化吸收资金投入、有效专利产出水平、R&D机构平均经费投入、与高校创新合作费用支出、与研究机构创新合作费用支出、外商创新投入、金融机构融资规模等因素的阻碍。其中引进国外技术资金投入对技术选择协同度的负向作用力最大，是中国装备制造业技术选择协同过程的瓶颈因素。金属制品业技术选择协同过程中决定行业演进的序参量较多，行业技术选择的过程也较其他行业要更加复杂和多变；电器机械制造业技术选择的协同度受技术升级换代资金投入的影响较其他行业要强；仪器仪表及文化办公用设备制造业技术选择协同度受R&D课题平均经费投入影响较其他行业要强。
通过对计量结果的总体分析，认为中国装备制造业技术选择协同度提升应从两个层面六个方面提出，选择主体层面：加大国内技术的投入比重，提高技术应用的商业化程度；创新系统层面：进一步完善人才培养体制，以项目形式带动创新活动的开展，提升产学研合作层次，优化企业为主体的创新环境。
Technology choice, as a key sector of technology capacity promotion, decides theprogress of technology development and plays an important role on technologyupgrading. In the field of technological economics, problems about technology choicehave become a key subject, involving lots of problems in many fields. This articlecomprehensively applies many knowledge systems of system theory, synergy theory,technological economics, econometrics, innovative economics and so on from synergyperspective, analyses technology choice’s all interests and its collaborate relationship,using qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, builds estimating models oftechnology choice synergy to measure equipment manufacturing industries and analyzeits factors, using normative and empirical analysis methods.
This article firstly analyzes equipment manufacturing industries’ status oftechnology choice based on many theories of technology choice, standard theories andmethod theories; Secondly by introducing synergy theories and TOPSIS this articleanalyses technology choice’s all interests and it’s collaborate relationship, buildingestimating models of technology choice synergy and its standards. Thirdly With China'sequipment manufacturing industry as the object of empirical analysis this articleestablishes measuring index system of technology choice synergy, measuring technologychoice synergy of China's equipment manufacturing industry, analyzing industry's overallsituation; Fourthly Analyse technology choice synergy’s influcing factors throughchoosers’ order and innovation system’s order using pana data model. And come to aconclusion which factors promote technology choice synergy of China's equipmentmanufacturing industry and which factors block technology choice synergy of China'sequipment manufacturing industry. At last this article proposes some suggestions of howto proceed on technology choice synergy based empirical analysis results fromperspective of choosers and innovation system.
By analyzing all technology choice interests and its Interaction building aninnovation system, we know technology choice, as a complex adaptive system andbasing logistic curve evolution rule, produces affect on innovative basis, innovative activity, innovative bridge, and innovative environment. Innovative system producesaffect on technology choice in evolutional process of self-organizing by innovativesubjects’ interactive influencing, routine and searching behaviors, selecting and studyingbehaviors.
By analyzing all technology choice interests’ collaborate interaction; we know thesynergy effect generated depends on synergy coefficient. Proper coefficient can producesynergy value. Otherwise it will lower this value. Technology choice synergy is a synergyprocess choosing best technology from every alternative technology set,comprehensively considering influences from every subject of technology choice andmany factors from inner and outside influences of innovative system.
By building estimating model and standard of technology choice synergy, we knowmeasuring technology choice synergy is to analyse the degree of all factors closing totheir best which influence synergy value among all technology choice interests. Thestandard of technology choice synergy includes three parts: order estimated of innovativesystem, choosers and synergy estimated of innovative system and choosers.
By estimating degree of equipment manufacturing industries’ technology choicesynergy, we know equipment manufacturing industries can be sorted into four categories.TY and ZY are the middle degree industries of technology choice synergy. JT and YQ arethe low degree industries of technology choice synergy. DQ is the lower degreeindustries of technology choice synergy. JS and DZ are the high degree industries oftechnology choice synergy.
Analyze the factors of influencing equipment manufacturing industries’ technologychoice synergy. The level of investment in importing domestic technologies, newproducts output, investment in R&D software, average investment of R&D projects,mutual innovative investment among enterprises promote equipment manufacturingindustries’ technology choice synergy. Average investment of R&D projects decides theresults of innovative system proceeding. The level of investment in importing foreigntechnologies, absorption investment in importing foreign technologies, effective patentproduction, average investment of R&D institutions, expenditure of innovativecollaboration with colleges, expenditure of innovative collaboration with research centers,innovative investment from foreign enterprises, innovative investment from financial institutions hinder equipment manufacturing industries’ technology choice synergy.Investment in importing foreign technologies is the bottleneck factor of equipmentmanufacturing industries’ technology choice synergy. JS’ progress of technology choicesynergy is more complicated than other sub-industries. DQ is more influenced byinvestment in technology upgrading. YQ is more influenced by average investment ofR&D subjects.
Propose six suggestions of how to proceed on technology choice synergy from twoperspectives. Choosers: Increase technology investment domestic, strengthen technicalapplication marketize; Innovation system: encourage talent training advanced, promoteinnovation activities project, low cost of industry university institute cooperation,highlighting innovation subject enterprize.
论文在梳理技术选择相关理论和协同学相关理论的基础上，提出本文研究的切入点。首先构建了技术选择协同模型，分析技术选择各利益体及其之间的协同作用关系，以协同理论为载体，逼近理想排序法为工具，构建技术选择协同测度模型及测度标准；其次对中国装备制造业技术选择现状进行分析并进行初步的原因分析；再次，以中国装备制造业为实证分析对象，建立技术选择协同测度指标体系，对中国装备制造业七大子行业进行技术选择协同测度并进行行业聚类分析；再次，通过选择主体有序和创新系统有序分别对技术选择协同度的影响因素分析，建立面板数据模型，得出影响中国装备制造业技术选择协同度的促进因素和阻碍因素，并进行行业对比。最后，以实证分析结果为依据，从选择主体层面和创新系统层面提出提升中国装备制造业技术选择协同度的若干政策建议。
通过对技术选择各利益体及其之间基本作用关系的分析，认为技术选择各利益体及其之间的相互作用关系构成了创新系统，各利益体间存在着复杂自适应行为，在遵循逻辑斯蒂曲线演进规律的基础上，选择主体对创新基础、创新活动、创新链接和创新环境形成作用力。创新系统在自组织演化过程中，创新基础、创新活动、创新链接和创新环境，通过各利益体间的交互作用、惯例及搜索行为、选择和学习行为对选择主体形成反作用力。
通过介入协同理论对技术选择各利益体间的协同作用关系进行分析，认为技术选择各利益体间协同效应的产生取决于彼此协同作用系数的大小，只有处在合适的范畴内才能产生协同价值，否则将降低协同绩效。技术选择协同是技术选择主体为实现一定的系统目标，在技术选择各利益体相互作用的过程中，综合考虑创新系统内外因素的影响，对各种可能得到的技术手段进行综合比较，从中选取与各利益体最优协同技术体系的过程。
通过构建技术选择协同的测度模型和测度标准，认为技术选择协同的测度为，在一定时空范围内，影响技术选择各利益体间协同价值产生的各因素距各自最佳值的接近程度。技术选择协同的测度标准包括三部分：选择主体有序、创新系统有序及选择主体与创新系统的协同。
通过对中国装备制造业各子行业技术选择协同度的测度值进行分析，认为中国装备制造业七个子行业分为四类，第一类为技术选择协同度低行业群，包括交通运输设备制造业和仪器仪表及文化办公用机械制造业行业群；第二类为技术选择协同度较低行业群，包括电气机械及器材制造业行业群；第三类为技术选择协同度适中行业群，包括通用设备制造和专用设备制造业行业群；第四类为技术选择协同度高行业群，包括金属制品业和电子及通讯设备制造业行业群。
通过对中国装备制造业技术选择协同度的影响因素分析，认为影响中国装备制造业技术选择协同的诸多因素中，引进国内技术资金投入、新产品产出水平、研发软件投入水平、R&D项目平均经费投入、企业间的创新投入水平等因素对中国装备制造业技术选择协同影响最强，是行业技术选择协同价值产生的核心序参量，决定着行业创新系统演进的渐变过程和突变结果。其中R&D项目平均经费投入对行业技术选择协同的影响最大。同时中国装备制造业技术选择协同受到引进国外技术资金投入、引进国外技术消化吸收资金投入、有效专利产出水平、R&D机构平均经费投入、与高校创新合作费用支出、与研究机构创新合作费用支出、外商创新投入、金融机构融资规模等因素的阻碍。其中引进国外技术资金投入对技术选择协同度的负向作用力最大，是中国装备制造业技术选择协同过程的瓶颈因素。金属制品业技术选择协同过程中决定行业演进的序参量较多，行业技术选择的过程也较其他行业要更加复杂和多变；电器机械制造业技术选择的协同度受技术升级换代资金投入的影响较其他行业要强；仪器仪表及文化办公用设备制造业技术选择协同度受R&D课题平均经费投入影响较其他行业要强。
通过对计量结果的总体分析，认为中国装备制造业技术选择协同度提升应从两个层面六个方面提出，选择主体层面：加大国内技术的投入比重，提高技术应用的商业化程度；创新系统层面：进一步完善人才培养体制，以项目形式带动创新活动的开展，提升产学研合作层次，优化企业为主体的创新环境。
Technology choice, as a key sector of technology capacity promotion, decides theprogress of technology development and plays an important role on technologyupgrading. In the field of technological economics, problems about technology choicehave become a key subject, involving lots of problems in many fields. This articlecomprehensively applies many knowledge systems of system theory, synergy theory,technological economics, econometrics, innovative economics and so on from synergyperspective, analyses technology choice’s all interests and its collaborate relationship,using qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, builds estimating models oftechnology choice synergy to measure equipment manufacturing industries and analyzeits factors, using normative and empirical analysis methods.
This article firstly analyzes equipment manufacturing industries’ status oftechnology choice based on many theories of technology choice, standard theories andmethod theories; Secondly by introducing synergy theories and TOPSIS this articleanalyses technology choice’s all interests and it’s collaborate relationship, buildingestimating models of technology choice synergy and its standards. Thirdly With China'sequipment manufacturing industry as the object of empirical analysis this articleestablishes measuring index system of technology choice synergy, measuring technologychoice synergy of China's equipment manufacturing industry, analyzing industry's overallsituation; Fourthly Analyse technology choice synergy’s influcing factors throughchoosers’ order and innovation system’s order using pana data model. And come to aconclusion which factors promote technology choice synergy of China's equipmentmanufacturing industry and which factors block technology choice synergy of China'sequipment manufacturing industry. At last this article proposes some suggestions of howto proceed on technology choice synergy based empirical analysis results fromperspective of choosers and innovation system.
By analyzing all technology choice interests and its Interaction building aninnovation system, we know technology choice, as a complex adaptive system andbasing logistic curve evolution rule, produces affect on innovative basis, innovative activity, innovative bridge, and innovative environment. Innovative system producesaffect on technology choice in evolutional process of self-organizing by innovativesubjects’ interactive influencing, routine and searching behaviors, selecting and studyingbehaviors.
By analyzing all technology choice interests’ collaborate interaction; we know thesynergy effect generated depends on synergy coefficient. Proper coefficient can producesynergy value. Otherwise it will lower this value. Technology choice synergy is a synergyprocess choosing best technology from every alternative technology set,comprehensively considering influences from every subject of technology choice andmany factors from inner and outside influences of innovative system.
By building estimating model and standard of technology choice synergy, we knowmeasuring technology choice synergy is to analyse the degree of all factors closing totheir best which influence synergy value among all technology choice interests. Thestandard of technology choice synergy includes three parts: order estimated of innovativesystem, choosers and synergy estimated of innovative system and choosers.
By estimating degree of equipment manufacturing industries’ technology choicesynergy, we know equipment manufacturing industries can be sorted into four categories.TY and ZY are the middle degree industries of technology choice synergy. JT and YQ arethe low degree industries of technology choice synergy. DQ is the lower degreeindustries of technology choice synergy. JS and DZ are the high degree industries oftechnology choice synergy.
Analyze the factors of influencing equipment manufacturing industries’ technologychoice synergy. The level of investment in importing domestic technologies, newproducts output, investment in R&D software, average investment of R&D projects,mutual innovative investment among enterprises promote equipment manufacturingindustries’ technology choice synergy. Average investment of R&D projects decides theresults of innovative system proceeding. The level of investment in importing foreigntechnologies, absorption investment in importing foreign technologies, effective patentproduction, average investment of R&D institutions, expenditure of innovativecollaboration with colleges, expenditure of innovative collaboration with research centers,innovative investment from foreign enterprises, innovative investment from financial institutions hinder equipment manufacturing industries’ technology choice synergy.Investment in importing foreign technologies is the bottleneck factor of equipmentmanufacturing industries’ technology choice synergy. JS’ progress of technology choicesynergy is more complicated than other sub-industries. DQ is more influenced byinvestment in technology upgrading. YQ is more influenced by average investment ofR&D subjects.
Propose six suggestions of how to proceed on technology choice synergy from twoperspectives. Choosers: Increase technology investment domestic, strengthen technicalapplication marketize; Innovation system: encourage talent training advanced, promoteinnovation activities project, low cost of industry university institute cooperation,highlighting innovation subject enterprize.
引文
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①路长平.对新古典经济学技术选择“悖论”的理论反思[J]．财经理论与实践，2002.5：14
①来自中国技术前瞻报告（2006-2007），国家技术前瞻研究组，科学技术文献出版社
①钱学森等.论系统工程(增订本).长沙:湖南科学出版社,1988:7~27,30~32
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①詹法格伯格．牛津创新手册[M]．北京：知识产权出版社，2009：191-200
①李锐，企业创新系统自组织演化机制及环境研究[D]．哈尔滨工业大学博士学位论文，2010：41-42
②刘明广，复杂群决策系统决策与协同优化[M]．人民出版社，2009.8：59
①张保银．经济管理复杂自适应系统理论与仿真研究[D]．博士学位论文，天津大学，2003：36
①王希军，我国光电子产业的技术选择及对策研究[D]．吉林大学博士学位论文，2006：61-63
①参照王希军逻辑斯蒂曲线模型及技术选择中公式的应用
①李锐，企业创新系统自组织演化机制及环境研究[D]．哈尔滨工业大学博士学位论文，2010.6，P：76
②王子龙，中国装备制造业系统演化与评价研究[D]．博士学位论文，南京航空航天大学，2007年：29-32
①本小节数据来自《产业结构调整指导目录（2011年本）解读——装备制造业》
①本小节数据来自2011年《高端装备制造业“十二五”发展规划》
①参照王子龙博士在中国装备制造业系统演化与评价研究中利用信息熵来分析装备制造业演化的区域差异
①詹法格伯格，牛津创新手册[M]．知识产权出版社，2009：191
①王思薇．中国区域技术效率研究[D]．博士学位论文，西北大学，2010.12：109
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①王思薇．中国区域技术效率研究[D]．博士学位论文，西北大学，2010.12：109
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