城市建设用地扩展及其碳排放研究
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摘要
城市是人类文明的集中体现,其消耗的资源占据了社会的重要份额。因此，城市可持续发展对人类具有重大意义。在城市可持续发展中，城市土地的可持续发展占据着重要一环。但近年来城市土地资源可持续发展的相关研究大多停留在概念层面，缺少在实际规划中贯彻的理念。如果通过某些研究方法促使规划者能够预知城市发展的趋势，将有助于规划者制定最优的规划方案,对城市规划具有指导意义。城市建设用地扩展会影响到城市可持续发展的各个层面，掌握城市用地变化的空间规律、驱动机制及未来发展动向等方面，将成为城市可持续管理和城市生态安全等研究领域的关键。郑州市作为河南省的经济中心，建设用地变化迅速，因此，模拟郑州市发展趋势并预测其碳排放状况，对郑州市可持续发展具有重要意义。本文即通过构建模型模拟郑州市建设用地扩展趋势，并对其碳排放进程展开核算和预测。
以1995-2009年的土地利用数据为基础，本研究将多智能体、元胞自动机、环境限制模块和土地利用变化随机模块组合，构建了城市建设用地扩展模型（MCUC），研究城市建设用地扩展及其碳排放规律。1995-2009年土地利用数据分析结果显示，建设用地在过去14年呈高速扩张状态，扩展方向向东部和南部集中。MCUC模型主要采用logistic回归分析确定城市建设用地扩展与各元胞到公路、铁路、市中心、镇中心的距离及邻域开发率的关系，其结果与政府智能体、环境限制模块、随机模块共同作用，能够获取建设用地的扩展概率关系式。将该关系式应用于郑州市区对MCUC模型进行实证分析，模拟和预测了郑州市区的城市建设用地扩展，并基于MCUC模型和灰色预测（GM）模型对城市建设用地扩展的碳排放进行核算和预测，深入研究了建设用地扩展的碳排放发展趋势。
主要研究结论如下：
（1）采用ERDAS IMAGINE8.6和ArcGIS对TM遥感影像数据进行处理和解译，分析了1995年、2002年和2009年土地利用的时空变化特征，并综合多智能体、元胞自动机和GIS技术构建MCUC模型，以郑州市区为研究区对MCUC模型进行了实证分析。实证过程中将郑州市区不同时期的土地利用变化图、空间变量、邻域开发率、规划数据、地势、河流滩涂等数据进行预处理，分别输入MCUC模型的元胞自动机模块、多智能体模块和环境限制模块，结合随机因子模块，获得了郑州市建设用地扩展的演变概率模II式，并利用2002年和2009年的一系列数据验证了模型的合理性。
（2）将2009年数据输入MCUC模型获得了2016年建设用地的扩展规律。结果显示，郑州市区非受限区域的建设用地将高速扩展，并且扩展速度以郑东新区最高；扩展方式与城市规划的规划方向相同，呈现向东部推进的态势，这与郑汴一体化的整体规划和目前的发展现状一致。
（3）采用MCUC模型对郑州市区建设用地扩展中基于土地利用变化的碳排放进行核算和预测。研究显示，郑州市区建设用地扩展主要依靠占用耕地和林地实现。比较1995-2002年和2002-2009年两个时段，基于土地利用变化的碳排放量随时间的迁移逐渐降低，并呈现林地被占用面积减少，耕地被占用面积增多的特征。将预测得到的2009-2016年间产生的碳排放量与前两个时段相比，依然呈现下降的趋势，表明郑州市建设用地扩展中基于土地利用变化的碳排放总体显现降低的走势。
（4）郑州市区建设用地扩展中基于能源消费的碳排放量在2005年到2011年之间呈现先升后降的趋势，增长的高峰期位于2009年到2010年间，下降后的碳排放量高于除高峰期外的其他年份的碳排放量。通过灰色预测模型对郑州市区基于能源消费的碳排放进行预测，显示自2009年到量2016年能源消费产生的碳排放逐年增长，且增长幅度不断扩大。
Cities are the concentrated expression of the human civilization. Resources consumed in cities occupyan important share of the society. To achieve a sustainable development is of great significance to human.Sustainable development of urban land occupies an important part of sustainable urban development.However, research in recent years are mostly missing in the actual planning and implementation conceptand still remaining at the conceptual level. Urban planning contributes to the implementation of sustainabledevelopment strategy in urban land use. Some research methods prompted planners to forecast the trend ofurban development, which help planners select the optimal planning and has an important significance inguiding urban planning. Expansion of urban construction land will affect all levels of sustainable urbandevelopment, to master good urban land use change in space law, the drive mechanism and futuredevelopments and other issues will be the primary key research areas of sustainable urban management andurban ecological security. as the economic center of Henan province, the construction land changes rapidlyin Zhengzhou. Therefore, it is significant to simulate the development trend and forecast its carbonemissions for the sustainable development of Zhengzhou. This paper constructs a model to simulate thetrend of construction land expansion and forecast the carbon emission process in Zhengzhou.
Multi-Agent is combined with cellular automata, restricted environmental module and random moduleof land use change to constructs the urban construction land expansion （Expansion of Urban ConstructionLand Model Based on MAS and CA,MCUC）model based on the data of land use in1995-2009years.MCUC model is used to study the law of urban construction land expansion and its carbon emissions. Theanalysis results of land use data in1995-2009years show that the construction land expands fast in the last14years and the direction of expansion is the East and south of Zhengzhou.MCUC model uses logisticregression analysis to determine the relationship between the urban construction land expansion anddistance to the highway, railway, city center, town center for each cell. Through interaction between theresults and the government Agent, restricted environmental module, random module, we can obtainprobability formula of construction land expansion. The paper simulates and predicts the construction landexpansion in urban area of Zhengzhou based on the probability formula. Moreover, carbon emissions of urban construction land expansion are accounted and predicted based on MCUC model and GM model,which reveals the trend of the carbon emissions.
The main conclusions are as follows:
(1)ERDAS IMAGINE8.6and ArcGIS is used to do remote sensing image processing andinterpretation with a TM data. On this basis,, the change of land use in1995,2002and2009is obtained.Moreover,this paper integrated multi-Agent, cellular automata and GIS technology to build urbanconstruction land expansion mode. Zhengzhou city is used as the study area to MCUC model for empiricalanalysis. Put ting the data of different periods of Variation of land use, spatial variable, neighborhooddevelopment rate, planning data, the topography, rivers, beaches and so on to preprocessing in Zhengzhoucity, then importing those data into CA module，MAS module and Environmental Restrictions module ofMCUC model and Combining with random grid of random factor module, we Can get the probability ofthe evolution of the construction land expansion mode of Zhengzhou city. And this paper uses a series ofdata in2002and2009to verify the rationality of the model.
(2)Putting the data of2009into MCUC model, we can obtain regularity of construction landexpansion in2016. Results show that the construction land of Non-restricted area in Zhengzhou city isgoing to high-speed extend, and the zhengdong new district's extension speed is highest; Extension mode isthe same as the direction of urban planning. They present to advance to the eastern part of the trend, andthose trends consistent with the overall planning of Zhengzhou-kaifeng integration and the presentsituation.
(3)MCUC model is used to account and forecast the carbon emissions based on the change ofland-use generated by construction land expansion in Zhengzhou city. Research shows urban constructionland expansion of Zhengzhou mainly relies on the occupation of farmland and woodland. Compare the twoperiods from1995to2002and from2002to2009, we can find the carbon emissions based on land-usechange is gradually reduced migration over time, and renders the feature of area occupied by woodlandreduced and area occupied by cultivated land increased. Compared to the predicted value and the twoperiods, it also showed a downward trend that shows carbon emissions based on land using changegenerated by construction land expansion emerged decreasing trend as a whole.
(4)Carbon emissions based on energy consumption of construction land expansion of Zhengzhou city is firstly up and then decreased trend between2005to2011. The peak period of increase is from2009to2010, Carbon emissions of the falled area are higner than other years of carbon emissions except the peekperiod. Using the gray prediction model to predicte the carbon emissions based on energy consumption ofZhengzhou city, it shows that Carbon emissions generated by energy consumption is growing year by year,and the growth rate continues to expand.
以1995-2009年的土地利用数据为基础，本研究将多智能体、元胞自动机、环境限制模块和土地利用变化随机模块组合，构建了城市建设用地扩展模型（MCUC），研究城市建设用地扩展及其碳排放规律。1995-2009年土地利用数据分析结果显示，建设用地在过去14年呈高速扩张状态，扩展方向向东部和南部集中。MCUC模型主要采用logistic回归分析确定城市建设用地扩展与各元胞到公路、铁路、市中心、镇中心的距离及邻域开发率的关系，其结果与政府智能体、环境限制模块、随机模块共同作用，能够获取建设用地的扩展概率关系式。将该关系式应用于郑州市区对MCUC模型进行实证分析，模拟和预测了郑州市区的城市建设用地扩展，并基于MCUC模型和灰色预测（GM）模型对城市建设用地扩展的碳排放进行核算和预测，深入研究了建设用地扩展的碳排放发展趋势。
主要研究结论如下：
（1）采用ERDAS IMAGINE8.6和ArcGIS对TM遥感影像数据进行处理和解译，分析了1995年、2002年和2009年土地利用的时空变化特征，并综合多智能体、元胞自动机和GIS技术构建MCUC模型，以郑州市区为研究区对MCUC模型进行了实证分析。实证过程中将郑州市区不同时期的土地利用变化图、空间变量、邻域开发率、规划数据、地势、河流滩涂等数据进行预处理，分别输入MCUC模型的元胞自动机模块、多智能体模块和环境限制模块，结合随机因子模块，获得了郑州市建设用地扩展的演变概率模II式，并利用2002年和2009年的一系列数据验证了模型的合理性。
（2）将2009年数据输入MCUC模型获得了2016年建设用地的扩展规律。结果显示，郑州市区非受限区域的建设用地将高速扩展，并且扩展速度以郑东新区最高；扩展方式与城市规划的规划方向相同，呈现向东部推进的态势，这与郑汴一体化的整体规划和目前的发展现状一致。
（3）采用MCUC模型对郑州市区建设用地扩展中基于土地利用变化的碳排放进行核算和预测。研究显示，郑州市区建设用地扩展主要依靠占用耕地和林地实现。比较1995-2002年和2002-2009年两个时段，基于土地利用变化的碳排放量随时间的迁移逐渐降低，并呈现林地被占用面积减少，耕地被占用面积增多的特征。将预测得到的2009-2016年间产生的碳排放量与前两个时段相比，依然呈现下降的趋势，表明郑州市建设用地扩展中基于土地利用变化的碳排放总体显现降低的走势。
（4）郑州市区建设用地扩展中基于能源消费的碳排放量在2005年到2011年之间呈现先升后降的趋势，增长的高峰期位于2009年到2010年间，下降后的碳排放量高于除高峰期外的其他年份的碳排放量。通过灰色预测模型对郑州市区基于能源消费的碳排放进行预测，显示自2009年到量2016年能源消费产生的碳排放逐年增长，且增长幅度不断扩大。
Cities are the concentrated expression of the human civilization. Resources consumed in cities occupyan important share of the society. To achieve a sustainable development is of great significance to human.Sustainable development of urban land occupies an important part of sustainable urban development.However, research in recent years are mostly missing in the actual planning and implementation conceptand still remaining at the conceptual level. Urban planning contributes to the implementation of sustainabledevelopment strategy in urban land use. Some research methods prompted planners to forecast the trend ofurban development, which help planners select the optimal planning and has an important significance inguiding urban planning. Expansion of urban construction land will affect all levels of sustainable urbandevelopment, to master good urban land use change in space law, the drive mechanism and futuredevelopments and other issues will be the primary key research areas of sustainable urban management andurban ecological security. as the economic center of Henan province, the construction land changes rapidlyin Zhengzhou. Therefore, it is significant to simulate the development trend and forecast its carbonemissions for the sustainable development of Zhengzhou. This paper constructs a model to simulate thetrend of construction land expansion and forecast the carbon emission process in Zhengzhou.
Multi-Agent is combined with cellular automata, restricted environmental module and random moduleof land use change to constructs the urban construction land expansion （Expansion of Urban ConstructionLand Model Based on MAS and CA,MCUC）model based on the data of land use in1995-2009years.MCUC model is used to study the law of urban construction land expansion and its carbon emissions. Theanalysis results of land use data in1995-2009years show that the construction land expands fast in the last14years and the direction of expansion is the East and south of Zhengzhou.MCUC model uses logisticregression analysis to determine the relationship between the urban construction land expansion anddistance to the highway, railway, city center, town center for each cell. Through interaction between theresults and the government Agent, restricted environmental module, random module, we can obtainprobability formula of construction land expansion. The paper simulates and predicts the construction landexpansion in urban area of Zhengzhou based on the probability formula. Moreover, carbon emissions of urban construction land expansion are accounted and predicted based on MCUC model and GM model,which reveals the trend of the carbon emissions.
The main conclusions are as follows:
(1)ERDAS IMAGINE8.6and ArcGIS is used to do remote sensing image processing andinterpretation with a TM data. On this basis,, the change of land use in1995,2002and2009is obtained.Moreover,this paper integrated multi-Agent, cellular automata and GIS technology to build urbanconstruction land expansion mode. Zhengzhou city is used as the study area to MCUC model for empiricalanalysis. Put ting the data of different periods of Variation of land use, spatial variable, neighborhooddevelopment rate, planning data, the topography, rivers, beaches and so on to preprocessing in Zhengzhoucity, then importing those data into CA module，MAS module and Environmental Restrictions module ofMCUC model and Combining with random grid of random factor module, we Can get the probability ofthe evolution of the construction land expansion mode of Zhengzhou city. And this paper uses a series ofdata in2002and2009to verify the rationality of the model.
(2)Putting the data of2009into MCUC model, we can obtain regularity of construction landexpansion in2016. Results show that the construction land of Non-restricted area in Zhengzhou city isgoing to high-speed extend, and the zhengdong new district's extension speed is highest; Extension mode isthe same as the direction of urban planning. They present to advance to the eastern part of the trend, andthose trends consistent with the overall planning of Zhengzhou-kaifeng integration and the presentsituation.
(3)MCUC model is used to account and forecast the carbon emissions based on the change ofland-use generated by construction land expansion in Zhengzhou city. Research shows urban constructionland expansion of Zhengzhou mainly relies on the occupation of farmland and woodland. Compare the twoperiods from1995to2002and from2002to2009, we can find the carbon emissions based on land-usechange is gradually reduced migration over time, and renders the feature of area occupied by woodlandreduced and area occupied by cultivated land increased. Compared to the predicted value and the twoperiods, it also showed a downward trend that shows carbon emissions based on land using changegenerated by construction land expansion emerged decreasing trend as a whole.
(4)Carbon emissions based on energy consumption of construction land expansion of Zhengzhou city is firstly up and then decreased trend between2005to2011. The peak period of increase is from2009to2010, Carbon emissions of the falled area are higner than other years of carbon emissions except the peekperiod. Using the gray prediction model to predicte the carbon emissions based on energy consumption ofZhengzhou city, it shows that Carbon emissions generated by energy consumption is growing year by year,and the growth rate continues to expand.
引文
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