智能电网运营管理风险元传递模型及决策支持系统研究
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摘要
为了应对全球气候恶化与提高能源利用效率,各国电力工业都开始在智能电网方面做出探索与实践。智能电网实施给电力系统的各运营管理主体带来新的挑战,特别是可再生能源参与发电侧运营管理并接入电网,电力调度由电量调度转变为负荷调度,用户侧通过智能双向互动体系参与电网运营管理。相比传统电力系统,智能电网实现了电力流.信息流、资金流的高度融合,给电力系统注入了新的活力,同时在某种程度上也增加了各运营管理主体的风险性。针对这一新形势,本文基于电力风险元传递理论,从运营管理主体维入手,分别对智能电网环境下发电侧、电网侧、用户侧的运营管理风险元传递情形进行建模分析,进而探讨了基于风险元传递模型的智能电网运营管理决策支持系统。论文的研究成果主要体现在以下五个方面：
(1)对智能电网运营管理风险元理论进行了初探,提出了智能电网运营管理风险元传递三维建模思路。借鉴电力风险元传递理论,对智能电网运营管理风险进行分析,从风险元传递参与主体维、风险元传递方法维以及风险元传递路径维三个方面,提出了智能电网运营管理风险元传递三维一体建模思路。
(2)考虑智能电网环境下可再生能源参与的发电侧运营管理,以风力发电为例进行研究,构建风力发电独自运营管理风险元传递模型与风-火联合运营风险元传递模型。风力发电独自运营管理抓住风电上网电价与风电上网电量两条主线,分别构建风险元传递模型进行运营管理风险分析。为了弥补风力发电的间歇性、随机性,采用风-火联合运营管理模式,从负荷预测风险元、燃料价格风险元、上网电价风险元以及风电出力风险元四个方面入手,构建风-火联合运营管理风险元传递模型,分析了多风险元波动对整体收益的影响。
(3)针对智能电网环境下电网侧运营管理面临的新挑战,从智能电网投资项目、负荷预测、市场购电、智能调度以及信息安全等,分别构建电网侧运营管理风险元传递模型。根据智能电网投资项目资金分配情况,从自然风险元、管理风险元、技术风险元、市场经济风险元以及政策风险元五方面入手,构建层次型风险元传递模型。考虑智能电网的实施对负荷预测提出更高的要求,提出了更为精确的基于MFGM的智能电网负荷风险元预测模型。针对智能电网环境下市场购电发生的新变化,同时考虑到负荷预测、上网电价以及可再生能源出力不确定性,构建智能电网下考虑风险元传递的市场购电优化模型。针对智能电网调度主观信息的不确定性对调度结果产生重要影响,构建了考虑信息不确定性的智能电网调度风险元传递模型。针对智能电网业务信息传递过程的不确定性,采用吸收马尔科夫链理论构建智能电网信息安全风险元传递模型,分析由于信息系统发生安全事件而导致的后果严重程度。
(4)构建了考虑用户侧参与的智能电网运营风险传递模型。针对基于激励与价格两类需求响应方式,分别选取可中断负荷与峰谷分时电价作为典型代表,构建了考虑风险元传递的可中断负荷参与系统备用配置模型、考虑峰谷分时电价实施的电网收益风险元传递模型,对智能电网用户通过需求响应方式参与运营管理进行风险分析。针对用户侧供电方面,以分布式电源与电动汽车参与微电网运营管理为例,构建考虑成本、排污以及风险(风险元传递)的微电网运营多目标优化模型,并提出小生境多目标粒子群算法进行求解。
(5)研究了基于风险元传递模型的面向电网侧的智能电网运营管理风险决策支持系统(SGOM-RDSS)。为提高智能电网运营管理决策效率,基于本文已提出的风险元传递模型,以电网侧作为运营管理主体为例,探讨了基于模型驱动的智能电网运营管理决策支持系统的设计。在对SGOM-RDSS功能需求分析的基础上,对该系统的架构设计与功能设计进行研究,并探讨了SGOM-RDSS的重要风险元提取、数据交互及模型库自定义等配套关键技术。
In order to cope with global climate change and improve energy utilization efficiency, power industries around the world have begun to carry out exploration and practice in the smart grid. For the operational management subjects of power system, smart grid brings them some new challenges as renewable energy participates in the operational management of generation side and connects to the grid, power dispatching changes from energy scheduling to load scheduling, and the user side involves in the operational management through the intelligent two-way interactive system. Compared with traditional power system, smart grid makes power flow, information flow and fund flow blend together, which injects new vitality into the power system as well as increases some risk to the operational management subjects.In this new situation, based on the theory of power risk element transmission, this dissertation makes modeling analysis of the operational management risk element transmission in the generation side, grid side and user side respectively under the environment of smart grid from the operational management subject dimension. And then the smart grid operational management decision support system (SGOM-RDSS) based on risk element transmission model is discussed. The research achievements of this thesis are mainly reflected in the following five aspects:
(1) The smart grid operational management theory was studied, and the three-dimensional modeling of smart grid operational management risk element transmission was put forward. Drawing upon the power risk element transmission theory, and combined with the analysis of smart grid operational management risk, this paper proposed the three-dimensional modeling approach of smart grid operational management risk element transmission from the demission of smart grid operational management risk transmission participants, the demission of risk element transmission methods and the demission of risk element transmission path.
(2) Considering the participation of renewable energy in the operational management in generation side under the environment of smart grid, and taking the wind power as an example, the risk element transmission models of wind power's own operational management and wind-fire joint operational management were constructed. As the two main lines of wind power's own operational management, the wind power feed-in tariff and grid electricity were discussed respectively to build risk element transmission models and make operational management risk analysis. To make up for the intermittency and randomness of wind power, the wind-fire joint operational management pattern was adopted. Starting from load forecast risk element, fuel price risk element, feed-in-tariff risk element and wind power output risk element, the risk element transmission model of wind-fire joint operational management was put forward to study the influence of risk element fluctuation on its overall revenue.
(3) Considering the new challenges of smart grid to operational management in grid side, risk element transmission model of operational management in grid side was built from five aspects of smart grid investment projects, load forecast, market purchasing of power, intelligent scheduling and information security. For the funds allocation of smart grid investment projects, the hierarchical risk element transmission model was proposed considering nature risk element, management risk, technology risk element, market economy risk element and policy risk element. As the implementation of smart grid proposes higher demand to load forecast, the smart grid load risk element forecast model based on MFGM was put forward. In view of the changes of market purchasing under the circumstance of smart grid, based on load forecast, feed-in-tariff and renewable energy output uncertainty, market purchasing optimization model considering risk element transmission was constructed. As to the important influence of smart grid scheduling subjective information's uncertainty on scheduling results, the smart grid scheduling risk element transmission model considering information uncertainty was established. Considering the uncertainty of smart grid business information transfer process, the information security risk element transmission model employing absorbing Markov Chain was present to analyze the severity of consequences due to the security incident of information system.
(4) The smart grid operational risk transmission model considering the participation of user side was put forward. With regard to two demand response ways based on motivation and price, interruptible load and peak-valley tou price were taken as typical examples to build system backup configuration model with the participation of interruptible load and considering risk element transmission, as well as the grid revenue risk element transmission model considering the implementation of peak-valley tou price, to do risk analysis of users'participation in operational management. In the aspect of power supply in user side, this paper studied distributed generation and electric car's participation in the operational management of micro grid. Then the multi-objective optimization model of micro grid operational management considering cost, pollution and risk (risk element transmission) was constructed and niche particle swarm optimization algorithm was used to solve the model.
(5) The SGOM-RDSS based on risk element transmission model was studied. To improve the decision efficiency of smart grid operational management, considering the risk element transmission model mentioned in this paper, the research on the design of model-driven SGOM-RDSS was carried out. Based on the functional requirements analysis, the architecture design and function design of SGOM-RDSS were put forward, and the key matching technologies such as the extraction of important risk elements, data interaction and model self-defining were discussed.
(1)对智能电网运营管理风险元理论进行了初探,提出了智能电网运营管理风险元传递三维建模思路。借鉴电力风险元传递理论,对智能电网运营管理风险进行分析,从风险元传递参与主体维、风险元传递方法维以及风险元传递路径维三个方面,提出了智能电网运营管理风险元传递三维一体建模思路。
(2)考虑智能电网环境下可再生能源参与的发电侧运营管理,以风力发电为例进行研究,构建风力发电独自运营管理风险元传递模型与风-火联合运营风险元传递模型。风力发电独自运营管理抓住风电上网电价与风电上网电量两条主线,分别构建风险元传递模型进行运营管理风险分析。为了弥补风力发电的间歇性、随机性,采用风-火联合运营管理模式,从负荷预测风险元、燃料价格风险元、上网电价风险元以及风电出力风险元四个方面入手,构建风-火联合运营管理风险元传递模型,分析了多风险元波动对整体收益的影响。
(3)针对智能电网环境下电网侧运营管理面临的新挑战,从智能电网投资项目、负荷预测、市场购电、智能调度以及信息安全等,分别构建电网侧运营管理风险元传递模型。根据智能电网投资项目资金分配情况,从自然风险元、管理风险元、技术风险元、市场经济风险元以及政策风险元五方面入手,构建层次型风险元传递模型。考虑智能电网的实施对负荷预测提出更高的要求,提出了更为精确的基于MFGM的智能电网负荷风险元预测模型。针对智能电网环境下市场购电发生的新变化,同时考虑到负荷预测、上网电价以及可再生能源出力不确定性,构建智能电网下考虑风险元传递的市场购电优化模型。针对智能电网调度主观信息的不确定性对调度结果产生重要影响,构建了考虑信息不确定性的智能电网调度风险元传递模型。针对智能电网业务信息传递过程的不确定性,采用吸收马尔科夫链理论构建智能电网信息安全风险元传递模型,分析由于信息系统发生安全事件而导致的后果严重程度。
(4)构建了考虑用户侧参与的智能电网运营风险传递模型。针对基于激励与价格两类需求响应方式,分别选取可中断负荷与峰谷分时电价作为典型代表,构建了考虑风险元传递的可中断负荷参与系统备用配置模型、考虑峰谷分时电价实施的电网收益风险元传递模型,对智能电网用户通过需求响应方式参与运营管理进行风险分析。针对用户侧供电方面,以分布式电源与电动汽车参与微电网运营管理为例,构建考虑成本、排污以及风险(风险元传递)的微电网运营多目标优化模型,并提出小生境多目标粒子群算法进行求解。
(5)研究了基于风险元传递模型的面向电网侧的智能电网运营管理风险决策支持系统(SGOM-RDSS)。为提高智能电网运营管理决策效率,基于本文已提出的风险元传递模型,以电网侧作为运营管理主体为例,探讨了基于模型驱动的智能电网运营管理决策支持系统的设计。在对SGOM-RDSS功能需求分析的基础上,对该系统的架构设计与功能设计进行研究,并探讨了SGOM-RDSS的重要风险元提取、数据交互及模型库自定义等配套关键技术。
In order to cope with global climate change and improve energy utilization efficiency, power industries around the world have begun to carry out exploration and practice in the smart grid. For the operational management subjects of power system, smart grid brings them some new challenges as renewable energy participates in the operational management of generation side and connects to the grid, power dispatching changes from energy scheduling to load scheduling, and the user side involves in the operational management through the intelligent two-way interactive system. Compared with traditional power system, smart grid makes power flow, information flow and fund flow blend together, which injects new vitality into the power system as well as increases some risk to the operational management subjects.In this new situation, based on the theory of power risk element transmission, this dissertation makes modeling analysis of the operational management risk element transmission in the generation side, grid side and user side respectively under the environment of smart grid from the operational management subject dimension. And then the smart grid operational management decision support system (SGOM-RDSS) based on risk element transmission model is discussed. The research achievements of this thesis are mainly reflected in the following five aspects:
(1) The smart grid operational management theory was studied, and the three-dimensional modeling of smart grid operational management risk element transmission was put forward. Drawing upon the power risk element transmission theory, and combined with the analysis of smart grid operational management risk, this paper proposed the three-dimensional modeling approach of smart grid operational management risk element transmission from the demission of smart grid operational management risk transmission participants, the demission of risk element transmission methods and the demission of risk element transmission path.
(2) Considering the participation of renewable energy in the operational management in generation side under the environment of smart grid, and taking the wind power as an example, the risk element transmission models of wind power's own operational management and wind-fire joint operational management were constructed. As the two main lines of wind power's own operational management, the wind power feed-in tariff and grid electricity were discussed respectively to build risk element transmission models and make operational management risk analysis. To make up for the intermittency and randomness of wind power, the wind-fire joint operational management pattern was adopted. Starting from load forecast risk element, fuel price risk element, feed-in-tariff risk element and wind power output risk element, the risk element transmission model of wind-fire joint operational management was put forward to study the influence of risk element fluctuation on its overall revenue.
(3) Considering the new challenges of smart grid to operational management in grid side, risk element transmission model of operational management in grid side was built from five aspects of smart grid investment projects, load forecast, market purchasing of power, intelligent scheduling and information security. For the funds allocation of smart grid investment projects, the hierarchical risk element transmission model was proposed considering nature risk element, management risk, technology risk element, market economy risk element and policy risk element. As the implementation of smart grid proposes higher demand to load forecast, the smart grid load risk element forecast model based on MFGM was put forward. In view of the changes of market purchasing under the circumstance of smart grid, based on load forecast, feed-in-tariff and renewable energy output uncertainty, market purchasing optimization model considering risk element transmission was constructed. As to the important influence of smart grid scheduling subjective information's uncertainty on scheduling results, the smart grid scheduling risk element transmission model considering information uncertainty was established. Considering the uncertainty of smart grid business information transfer process, the information security risk element transmission model employing absorbing Markov Chain was present to analyze the severity of consequences due to the security incident of information system.
(4) The smart grid operational risk transmission model considering the participation of user side was put forward. With regard to two demand response ways based on motivation and price, interruptible load and peak-valley tou price were taken as typical examples to build system backup configuration model with the participation of interruptible load and considering risk element transmission, as well as the grid revenue risk element transmission model considering the implementation of peak-valley tou price, to do risk analysis of users'participation in operational management. In the aspect of power supply in user side, this paper studied distributed generation and electric car's participation in the operational management of micro grid. Then the multi-objective optimization model of micro grid operational management considering cost, pollution and risk (risk element transmission) was constructed and niche particle swarm optimization algorithm was used to solve the model.
(5) The SGOM-RDSS based on risk element transmission model was studied. To improve the decision efficiency of smart grid operational management, considering the risk element transmission model mentioned in this paper, the research on the design of model-driven SGOM-RDSS was carried out. Based on the functional requirements analysis, the architecture design and function design of SGOM-RDSS were put forward, and the key matching technologies such as the extraction of important risk elements, data interaction and model self-defining were discussed.
引文
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