货币国际化视角下的汇率制度选择研究
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摘要
一国货币成长为国际货币,不仅有利于获得现实的运行性经济收益,还可以在国内国际间获得制度性收益,故此世界强国都很注重货币国际化的战略追求。在货币完全一体化之前,汇率将是一个无法回避的问题。由于在推进货币国际化的进程中不可避免地要受到一定条件的约束,要面临内外风险的冲击,从而对汇率制度会有不同的要求,这就使货币国际化进程中进行汇率制度选择研究具有了理论和现实的双重意义。货币国际化的不同方式及其不同阶段都需要相应的汇率制度来配合,以保证本国宏观经济目标(内外均衡)的实现。本文是以货币国际化作为汇率制度选择的研究视角,更多注重汇率制度的协调搭配功能及对其未来发展问题的探讨。在思路上,首先,明确货币国际化的基本模式及其特点,探究货币国际化与汇率制度的相关性;其次,对不同国际化模式与汇率制度的配合进行规范分析和理论验证,得出具有针对性的政策结论;最后,结合国际经验与我国实际,为中国目前的汇率制度选择提出政策建议,对未来的汇率制度改革提出自己的构想。综而言之,在推进货币国际化的进程中必须完成汇率制度的相应调整。
With the development of research on exchange rate regime, there arise different views and theories. In practice, the arrangement of the exchange rate regime is in variety on the basis of fixed exchange rate regime, floating exchange rate regime and intermediate exchange rate regime. Each kind of the exchange rate regime has its pros and cons. It’s not objective to analyses the advantages and disadvantages of the exchange rate regime without real subjects. From the aspect of the system there are no advantages or disadvantages in the exchange rate regime itself; to some extent, there is only the ill adaption to some situation in some specific time. Therefore, under the background of economic globalization, the degree of the economic integration is increasingly strengthened. With the choice of different currency internationalization, how to achieve the coordinated development of the economy between countries and the world through the arrangement of the exchange rate regime, steering clear of the instability of economic development is the main issue this dissertation tries to settle.
Freely convertible currency is a stage that any international monetary cannot overlap. Freely convertible currency and the coordination of the exchange rate regime are the two major targets that all international monetary should accomplish. As the current account is more reflected in real economy, the scale and operation is relatively easy to deal with. The attitudes to the convertibility in current account are more positive and relaxed in many countries. Currency flow, the scale and speed of which is separated from the real economy, is increasingly virtualized influenced by financial globalization, so it brings great fortune accompanied by great risk as well. Ever since 1990s the crises have broke up frequently caused by financial crises and characterized by the capital collapse. Thus the choice of relevant exchange rate regime and capital management is the vital measure to release the outside impact and realize macroeconomic stability and promote the currency internationalization in policy level. This dissertation rejects the concern on the absolute form in capital management, but focuses on the analysis on the real cases. The dissertation analyzes the macroeconomic performance combined by capital management and the arrangement of exchange rate regime, prove the adaptability of intermediate exchange rate regime on mathematical basis, and come to the conclusion that it is desirable to choose different exchange rate regime to realize macroeconomic stability according to different economic features and outside impact. Under the conditions that the capital account is open it is the preferable strategy to choose fixed exchange rate regime; while the capital account is partly open, it is reasonable to managed floating exchange rate regime; whereas the capital account is entirely open, it is prior to floating exchange rate regime.
To adjust to the globalization in economy and finance, the economic powers prefer to realize the currency internationalization; the economies which have relative weak economic strength are in small scales, have the same preference in currency internationalization. With the limitation in economy and international status, they cannot develop the currency internationalization by themselves, so they have to find solutions to the financial risk in another way. Theoretically, the fundamental way to resolve the exchange risk is to eliminate the exchange rate completely. As far as the small economies are concerned, there are two choices to eliminate the risk of exchange rate internationalization: to attach to hard currency or to establish currency union, which can achieve stable avail by surrendering part or whole right of the national currency. To attach to hard currency is currency substitution or dollarization. The countries, who adapt this currency regime, have intimate political and economic relationship with the hard-currency country, and more depend on the hard-currency country. The two countries are close in geography. At the same time, the hard-currency country has the purpose and motivation to enlarge its currency influence. Therefore to adapt currency substitution is restrained by many factors. Currency substitution is the form of regional currency integration and the result of choice in exchange rate regime. The theoretical analysis findings show that the degree of currency substitution has great effect on the level of exchange rate. The higher the currency substitution degree is, the less steady the exchange rate is. When the currency substitution is complete, the exchange rate tends to infinity, i.e. the national currency is worth nothing. In practice, the country is surrendering the usage of the national currency and the foreign hard currency is replacing the national currency totally in the function.
Currency Union is the other form of the currency regional integration. From the aspect of arrangement of exchange rate regime, the exchange rate is fixed among the member countries, and sometimes they adopt the single currency. The ultimate form of Currency Union is that all the countries in the world use the same currency. In Currency Union, member countries have equal rights to express their wills, which is helpful to establish a reasonable coordinate mechanism. Currency Union inquires that the member countries meet the relevant macroeconomic standard to substitute the macroeconomic control over exchange rate. Whether a country joins in the currency union depends on the comparison between the avail raised by the currency efficiency and the uncertainty cost by the fixed exchange rate. According to the GG-LL model, when the relationship between the country and the currency region is G≥L, the country can take joining in the currency union into account. As the threshold of joining in the currency union has endogenous quality which increases the complex in research of currency union standard. As we have seen, the dollarization has come into being; Asia Dollar is long-waited; Euro has completed and the two currency union in Africa also set a good model for the currency cooperation among developing countries. In some sense, with the further development of economic globalization, the space for the survival of little economies is narrowing down, it is the trend of international monetary and a reasonable choice as well to surrender national currency to join in the currency union and accomplish regional currency linkage.
The best target of currency internationalization is that the national currency becomes the international standard currency, which plays an important role in international economic exchange. From the angle of history and theory, the evolvement of international exchange rate is rooted in the Monetary Standard. There are limitations in current international monetary system, such as in equity, efficiency and stability. It is necessary to establish new monetary standard system and exchange rate regime. As there are some insurmountable contradictions in the development in currency regionalization and currency as the international standard currency, the future standard monetary should be the currency beyond sovereign based on the regional currency. The economic globalization has the uniform requests on economic environment and markets, which calls for the uniform of currency function intrinsically and lay foundation for the integration of the global currency. As reflected on the arrangement of exchange rate, it helps to promote the fixed exchange rate and eliminate exchange rate in the end.
The exchange rate regime in China has experienced reforms ever since 1949, which in general attempt to achieve the marketization in exchange rate regime. After the opening door policy, with the development of economy and integration into the globalization, the reform in RMB is deepening. The strategy of RMB internationalization is becoming clear.
The mode of RMB internationalization and its specialty in the process decide the dynamic feature in the reform of the exchange rate regime. Analyzing strategically, in the short run, China should perfect the current managed floating exchange rate regime; then adapt the unilateral exchange rate regime as transition; at last accomplish independent free floating in RMB exchange rate regime.
With the development of research on exchange rate regime, there arise different views and theories. In practice, the arrangement of the exchange rate regime is in variety on the basis of fixed exchange rate regime, floating exchange rate regime and intermediate exchange rate regime. Each kind of the exchange rate regime has its pros and cons. It’s not objective to analyses the advantages and disadvantages of the exchange rate regime without real subjects. From the aspect of the system there are no advantages or disadvantages in the exchange rate regime itself; to some extent, there is only the ill adaption to some situation in some specific time. Therefore, under the background of economic globalization, the degree of the economic integration is increasingly strengthened. With the choice of different currency internationalization, how to achieve the coordinated development of the economy between countries and the world through the arrangement of the exchange rate regime, steering clear of the instability of economic development is the main issue this dissertation tries to settle.
Freely convertible currency is a stage that any international monetary cannot overlap. Freely convertible currency and the coordination of the exchange rate regime are the two major targets that all international monetary should accomplish. As the current account is more reflected in real economy, the scale and operation is relatively easy to deal with. The attitudes to the convertibility in current account are more positive and relaxed in many countries. Currency flow, the scale and speed of which is separated from the real economy, is increasingly virtualized influenced by financial globalization, so it brings great fortune accompanied by great risk as well. Ever since 1990s the crises have broke up frequently caused by financial crises and characterized by the capital collapse. Thus the choice of relevant exchange rate regime and capital management is the vital measure to release the outside impact and realize macroeconomic stability and promote the currency internationalization in policy level. This dissertation rejects the concern on the absolute form in capital management, but focuses on the analysis on the real cases. The dissertation analyzes the macroeconomic performance combined by capital management and the arrangement of exchange rate regime, prove the adaptability of intermediate exchange rate regime on mathematical basis, and come to the conclusion that it is desirable to choose different exchange rate regime to realize macroeconomic stability according to different economic features and outside impact. Under the conditions that the capital account is open it is the preferable strategy to choose fixed exchange rate regime; while the capital account is partly open, it is reasonable to managed floating exchange rate regime; whereas the capital account is entirely open, it is prior to floating exchange rate regime.
To adjust to the globalization in economy and finance, the economic powers prefer to realize the currency internationalization; the economies which have relative weak economic strength are in small scales, have the same preference in currency internationalization. With the limitation in economy and international status, they cannot develop the currency internationalization by themselves, so they have to find solutions to the financial risk in another way. Theoretically, the fundamental way to resolve the exchange risk is to eliminate the exchange rate completely. As far as the small economies are concerned, there are two choices to eliminate the risk of exchange rate internationalization: to attach to hard currency or to establish currency union, which can achieve stable avail by surrendering part or whole right of the national currency. To attach to hard currency is currency substitution or dollarization. The countries, who adapt this currency regime, have intimate political and economic relationship with the hard-currency country, and more depend on the hard-currency country. The two countries are close in geography. At the same time, the hard-currency country has the purpose and motivation to enlarge its currency influence. Therefore to adapt currency substitution is restrained by many factors. Currency substitution is the form of regional currency integration and the result of choice in exchange rate regime. The theoretical analysis findings show that the degree of currency substitution has great effect on the level of exchange rate. The higher the currency substitution degree is, the less steady the exchange rate is. When the currency substitution is complete, the exchange rate tends to infinity, i.e. the national currency is worth nothing. In practice, the country is surrendering the usage of the national currency and the foreign hard currency is replacing the national currency totally in the function.
Currency Union is the other form of the currency regional integration. From the aspect of arrangement of exchange rate regime, the exchange rate is fixed among the member countries, and sometimes they adopt the single currency. The ultimate form of Currency Union is that all the countries in the world use the same currency. In Currency Union, member countries have equal rights to express their wills, which is helpful to establish a reasonable coordinate mechanism. Currency Union inquires that the member countries meet the relevant macroeconomic standard to substitute the macroeconomic control over exchange rate. Whether a country joins in the currency union depends on the comparison between the avail raised by the currency efficiency and the uncertainty cost by the fixed exchange rate. According to the GG-LL model, when the relationship between the country and the currency region is G≥L, the country can take joining in the currency union into account. As the threshold of joining in the currency union has endogenous quality which increases the complex in research of currency union standard. As we have seen, the dollarization has come into being; Asia Dollar is long-waited; Euro has completed and the two currency union in Africa also set a good model for the currency cooperation among developing countries. In some sense, with the further development of economic globalization, the space for the survival of little economies is narrowing down, it is the trend of international monetary and a reasonable choice as well to surrender national currency to join in the currency union and accomplish regional currency linkage.
The best target of currency internationalization is that the national currency becomes the international standard currency, which plays an important role in international economic exchange. From the angle of history and theory, the evolvement of international exchange rate is rooted in the Monetary Standard. There are limitations in current international monetary system, such as in equity, efficiency and stability. It is necessary to establish new monetary standard system and exchange rate regime. As there are some insurmountable contradictions in the development in currency regionalization and currency as the international standard currency, the future standard monetary should be the currency beyond sovereign based on the regional currency. The economic globalization has the uniform requests on economic environment and markets, which calls for the uniform of currency function intrinsically and lay foundation for the integration of the global currency. As reflected on the arrangement of exchange rate, it helps to promote the fixed exchange rate and eliminate exchange rate in the end.
The exchange rate regime in China has experienced reforms ever since 1949, which in general attempt to achieve the marketization in exchange rate regime. After the opening door policy, with the development of economy and integration into the globalization, the reform in RMB is deepening. The strategy of RMB internationalization is becoming clear.
The mode of RMB internationalization and its specialty in the process decide the dynamic feature in the reform of the exchange rate regime. Analyzing strategically, in the short run, China should perfect the current managed floating exchange rate regime; then adapt the unilateral exchange rate regime as transition; at last accomplish independent free floating in RMB exchange rate regime.
引文
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