金融开放进程中我国商业银行业绩效演化的计量研究
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摘要
随着中国宏观经济高速发展，银行作为经济发展的重要传导机构，在发展和转型中获得了较高的利润。针对市场绩效的研究一直是产业组织领域研究的核心内容，从哈佛学派、芝加哥学派到后来的新产业组织理论都通过相应的理论体系确定影响市场绩效和企业效率的根源。然而产业组织理论对商业银行业绩效的分析一直没有确定性的结果，且由于阶段性特征的差异，国内外学者得到了大相径庭的结论。在我国商业银行业正处于金融开放过程中的转型阶段，如何维持高额利润下有效率的经营成为了热点讨论问题，但依照产业组织脉络对银行业绩效演化规律及影响因素的成果并不多见，在金融开放背景下结合利率变动和非传统业务展开的对银行业绩效银行因素全面展开分析的成果更为鲜见。因此，有必要研究我国银行业逐步开放和转型的过程中，影响银行业绩效演化规律的因素，并量化其影响。
20世纪30年代，产业组织理论已经初步的形成了，其中做出较大贡献的代表人物就是哈佛大学的Mason和他的学生Bain（1959），在他们的经验性研究针对特定市场研究其市场结构、市场行为及市场绩效之间的关系，发现三者间存在着一定的单向的因果关系，这些学者被称为哈佛学派，其理论即是产业组织经典的结构-行为-绩效分析范式。20世纪70年代，由于“滞胀”现象的出现，引发了芝加哥大学教授Stigler等对哈佛学派观点的质疑，形成了芝加哥学派。他们认为结构-行为-绩效之间简单的单向因果关系是不符合现实的，现实的市场中三者之间的关系应是双向的、相互影响的，他们的经验性研究结果证实了在激烈的市场竞争中，企业获得了更高的生产率，这种效率的提升节约了成本，因此使企业获得高额的利润，最终形成了以大企业和高度集中为特征的市场结构。此后，一些学者对SCP范式的修订和补充，又逐渐形成了以博弈论和信息经济学为基础和分析工具的新产业组织理论。
在理论发展过程中，大量的检验和分析市场绩效影响因素理论和实证研究都是在西方市场经济条件下提出的，因此需要在中国这样的发展中国家进行适应性检验。此前中国学者针对不同阶段的实证研究后发现了不同的市场特征。近几年，中国银行业资产快速扩张具有较强的特殊性和阶段性，以往注重资产规模、市场份额的粗放增长模式难以持续，利润持续高增长不可能是长期趋势。在迅速变化的经济结构和金融市场中，暴露出的银行获取高额利润的背后有存在较多的问题，对商业银行利润增长的驱动力的深入研究是十分必要的。这样不仅能够更准确的定量分析各因素对商业银行业绩效造成的影响，还能够使政府更具有针对性的制定和实施政策，更有效的促进金融业的健康发展，优化升级产业结构。在这样的背景下，本文依据10年的《中国金融统计年鉴》及各银行的年报数据，在产业组织的理论框架下，建立相应的模型，运用微观计量经济学方法，分析了中国商业银行业绩效演化规律及其影响因素。具体的分析和结果如下：1．根据理论建立模型检验我国商业银行业市场绩效的变化符结构主义还是效率主义的假说，确定我国商业银行业市场份额、市场绩效和效率之间的关系。首先，根据SCP范式分析市场结构的动态变化规律，发现国有商业银行仍然占有70%以上的市场份额，但是在10年当中有下降的趋势，高寡头垄断的市场格局正在逐步的弱化。其次，选取Malmquist生产率指数测度商业银行的效率，度量要素利用水平的动态指标的同时也可以看到了商业银行管理水平及技术进步情况。在前两步计算的基础上，最后借鉴经验性研究方法对商业银行业面板数据的估计后发现我国商业银行业绩效水平和市场结构无关，我国高寡头的市场结构是由于历史原因造成的，因此不符合市场势力假说。模型结果显示效率和资产规模对绩效的提升存在正向影响，但前期效率的影响较大。分阶段模型证实结果显示，无论是国有还是股份制商业银行资产规模的扩张和效率的提升都使市场绩效有所提升，但股份制商业银行明显弱于国有商业银行。因此，继续保持国有银行效率提升的同时，目前仍以资产规模的扩张而获取高额利润的商业银行业也需要防范金融风险对信贷规模扩张的影响。针对股份制商业银行业的绩效水平弱于国有商业银行的状况，则可以通过兼并和建立有效的竞争制度来使其市场绩效逐步提升。2．从竞争角度分析其对市场绩效演化的影响。结构法衡量竞争度对我国商业银行市场竞争的情况的统计性描述显示我国商业银行的竞争程度略有提升。但是，基于结构法的度量这并不能从信贷规模的扩张的竞争程度上解释其市场绩效水平的变化，第4章选取通过能够反映竞争动态变化的推测变分指标对竞争程度进行测度。测度过程中采用了广义矩估计的方法估计了贷款的需求函数，采用时点SUR对成本函数进行了估计。得到的结果显示我国商业银行的竞争程度并不是沿着某一趋势持续变化的，而是波动性的变化的，但总体来看竞争程度降低了。对比来看，CV的变化和市场结构的指标的逐渐下降趋势并不吻合，其结果并不支持SCP假说。采用Granger因果关系检验证实了竞争程度的变化是引起银行效率和绩效变化的主要因素，证实了效率结构假说的观点。选取脉冲响应函数对他们之间动态关联性分析后，发现竞争程度和效率之间的关系并不稳定的表现为正向的影响，但竞争程度在长期中能够引起绩效水平的提升，并且这种提升随着时间的持续作用更为显著。因此我国商业银行业需要引入更为完善的市场竞争机制、建立稳定的宏观经济环境和良好的金融市场秩序，如积极采用技术创新成果，发展技术，通过增加银行数量增强银行业竞争程度等手段来促进银行的竞争，从而提升行业的整体绩效水平。3．针对我国商业银行业主要利润70%来源于存贷款利差的现实，及我国利率市场化改革仍将继续的背景。研究利率变动周期与商业银行绩效的关系面板数据中，为了体现不同银行选取的不同利率期限结构，首先构建综合利差的相应指标，绩效的指标选取考虑银行经营中的成本及风险的绩效度量指标应用数据的协整检验、面板数据模型的估计方法检验两者的相关关系。发现综合利差的变动和银行绩效的变化是正相关的。为了更深入的了解利率周期变动的短期及长期的影响，选取Flannery的部分调整模型从从长期和短期进行分析，结果表明国有商业银行比股份商业银行对利率变动的敏感程度更高，商业银行在目前获取高额收益的情况下，有必要考虑利率下降阶段的风险防范机制。利率市场化必然存在周期波动，因此需要规避利率风险，建立合理、完善的防范利率波动风险的机制。在这个过程中，金融业应密切关注利率波动的水平和周期性变动，在此基础上建立合理的、科学的资产负债管理机制。但考虑到商业银行业绩效提升的持续性，则需要考虑到非利息收入、金融创新工具及金融服务的推进。
4．针对金融开放进程中为获取更多的收益及规避利率波动风险的非传统业务产品选择，描述性分析及模型估计的结果发现非传统业务在我国商业银行业的还没有形成一定的规模，并且其结构并不丰富，同时市场也没有完全的规范化，其对银行业绩效提升的作用也有限。从相对比重上来看，非利息收入占比并没有一直提升，而是在2006点出现了下降，其中国有银行的非利息收入相对提升较大，而原来以非传统业务作为经营特色的股份制商业银行在近些年中的非利息收入占比并不高，甚至低于国有银行。运用面板数据固定效应模型检验的研究结果表明，在银行金融改革进程中，国有银行利用其资金及规模的优势，在非利息收入的获取上有了快速的增长，但这种影响仍然较小，对银行收益影响最大的因素仍然是规模的扩张及存贷差的变化。但整体来说，发展商业银行的非传统业务，可以满足人们对金融服务的需求，而且有利于银行业绩效的提高。为了更细致的考察非传统业务中不同类型的差异，根据类型划分的非利息收入中，比重较大且较为稳定的就是佣金和手续费收入，我国商业银行非利息收入的变化和佣金与手续费收入的变化几乎吻合。因此，在合理规划佣金和手续费收入健康的市场环境的前提下，在以其作为非利息收入主体的同时可以通过加大金融创新力度，丰富其来源构成，深化金融的混业经营，在提高服务水平的同时获得更多的收益。
本文得到的经验研究结论有助于更加清晰地理解在金融改革进程中商业银行业绩效演化的特征，识别不同影响因素及影响程度的差异。最终，为保证我国银行业绩效水平的持续增长、抵御金融风险，有针对性的制定和实施公共政策，提高金融服务水平，以市场需求为导向引导银行业结构优化升级，有一定的借鉴意义。
With the high-speed development of China's macroeconomic, banking conducts importanttransmission as economic development agencies in the development and restructures higher profits.China's banking industry is highly profitable status quo, the necessary in-depth analysis of thecorresponding factors affecting the performance of commercial banks. However, analysis of thecommercial banking sector based on the theory of industrial organization has no definite results.Due to the different stages’features, scholars at home and abroad get very different conclusions. Atpresent, China's banking industry is in a transitional stage in the process of financial liberalization,obtaining high profits in the previous stage has also been widespread concern of all parties, andhow to maintain the efficient operation of the high profits in this context has become a hot issue todiscuss. Therefore, it is necessary to study the factors that affect the performance evolution andquantify its impact in China's banking industry gradually opening up and restructuring process,
In the 1930s, the theory of industrial organization has initially formed, Harvard University'sMason as the representatives making a greater contribution. He and his students Bain (1959) intheir empirical research to study the market structure, they find that there is a certain but one-wayrelationship between market behavior and market performance, there are certain one-way to have acausal relationship. These scholars are known as the "Harvard School", whose theory is classicalindustrial organization SCP analysis paradigm. In the 1970s, with the emergence of thephenomenon of "stagflation", University of Chicago Professor Stigler questioned the view ofHarvard School, for they think that a simple one-way causal relationship between the structure -conduct - performance is not consistent with reality. Reality market structure - conduct -performance has the two-way interaction, and empirical studies have shown that in the fiercemarket competition, enterprises have higher productivity and greater efficiency in cost savings, sothat enterprises obtain high profits, resulting in highly concentrated market structure with bigcompanies. Since then, some scholars amend and supplement the SCP paradigm, and graduallyformed "new industrial organization theory" (NIO) with the game theory and informationeconomics theory as the basis and analysis tools.
The variety of test and analysis of performance impact factor theory are put forward in theWestern market economy conditions, thus it needs adaptive test in China a developing country. Atthe same time, the previous research phases of the Chinese scholars are different, so that the marketcharacteristics are not the same. With China's banking sector assets expanding rapidly in recentyears, it has a strong specificity and periodicity. The banking sector focuses on asset size, and it isdifficult to sustain profits with the extensive growth of the market share, and high growth can not be long-term trend. Therefore, scholars launched to study the performance of commercial banks inChina, aiming to provide a reference for the government to develop and implement policies in ahealthy financial market to increase bank profits continually. In the rapidly changing economicstructure and financial markets, numerous problems are exposed behind the high profits, so that themore in-depth study of the driving force of the commercial bank profit growth is very necessary. Itwill not only be able to make more accurate quantitative analysis of the impact of various factorson the performance of commercial banks, but also enable the government develop and implementpolicies more effectively to promote the healthy development of the financial industry, optimizeand upgrade the industrial structure. According to "China's Financial Statistics Yearbook”and thebank's annual report data, under the theoretical framework of industrial organization, the paperestablishes the appropriate model and makes use of micro-econometric methods to analyze theperformance evolution and its influencing factors in China's commercial banks. Specific analysisand results are as follows:
A. Whether the changes in the inspection of commercial banks in China market performanceare consistent with the hypothesis of market power or efficiency structure hypothesis. First,according to the dynamic changes of the SCP analysis of market structure, in Chinese commercialbanking market Chinese banks still accounted for more than 70% market share, but in the last10years it shows downward trend, with oligopolistic market structure gradually weakening. Secondly,as for the efficiency measure, by adopting the Malmquist productivity index measure, it measuresthe dynamic indicators of factor utilization levels, which can be seen as metrics to reflect the levelof commercial bank management and its evolution characteristics. Finally, using generalized leastsquares method, drawing on empirical research on the commercial banking panel data estimationresults found that the level of performance and market structure of China's commercial banks hasnothing to do, and China's high oligopolistic market structure is due to historical reasons, therefore,it does not meet the market forces hypothesis. The model results show that there is a positiveimpact of the efficiency and asset size on performance improvement, but pre-efficiency. Phasedmodel confirmed that the state-owned banks or joint-stock bank’s asset expansion and improvedefficiency have made performance improved, but the joint-stock banks were significantly weakerthan the state-owned commercial banks. We need not only continue to maintain the efficiency ofstate-owned banks, but also guard against financial risks’influence on credit expansion. At thesame time, the performance of joint-stock commercial banks can be improved gradually throughmergers and the establishment of effective competition in the system.
B. Analyze the impact on the performance evolution from the perspective of competition.According to the statistical representation of the structural method to measure the degree ofcompetition on China's commercial bank market competition, the degree of competition for China'scommercial banks has increase slightly. However, based on the measurement of the structuralmethod, we cannot explain the changes in its level of performance from the degree of competitionof the expansion of the credit scale, so we can use the speculated variational indicator which canreflect dynamic changes in the competition to measure the degree of competition. Among them, we use the GMM estimation method to estimate the loan demand function, while using the point SURto estimate the cost function. Finally the degree of competition for China's commercial banks is notconstantly changing along a trend, but the volatility changes. In the overall level, competition isreduced. CV changes and a gradual downward trend of indicators of market structure does notmatch, and the results do not support the SCP hypothesis. It further clarify the relationship betweencompetition and performance, using the Granger causality test to confirm that the changes in thelevel of competition is the main factor to cause changes in the banking efficiency, and confirm theview of the efficient structure hypothesis. The dynamic correlation of the verification of both selectthe impulse response function and found that the relationship between the two is not stable aspositive impact. China's banking industry is largely impacted by policy changes, while competitionin the commercial banking sector is not price competition. The banking industry needs to introducemore perfect competition mechanism, the establish a stable macroeconomic environment and goodorder of the financial markets, such as active use of technology innovation, development oftechnology, enhancing competition in the banking sector by increasing the number of banks andother means to promote bank competition, By enhancing the banking sector individuals and theoverall level of efficiency, it will benefit the upgrading of the bank individual and overallefficiency.
C. 70 percent of China's commercial banking profits are derived from the reality of depositand loan spreads, and set China's market-oriented interest rate reform as the background. With thepanel data of cycle of changes in interest rates and commercial bank performance, in order toreflect different interest rate term structure selected by different, we first build a comprehensivespread of the corresponding indicators, and performance indicators are selected with theconsideration of the costs, and risks in the banking business performance metrics use applicationdata of Cointegration test, and make use of panel data model estimation method to test therelationship between the two. We found that fluctuation of comprehensive rates is positivelycorrelated of bank performance. We select Flannery's partial adjustment model for a betterunderstanding of interest rate cycle changes in short-term and long-term effects, to analyze it fromthe long-term and short-term, and the results show that the state-owned commercial banks is moresensitive to interest rate changes than the shares of commercial banks, and it is necessary forcommercial banks to consider the risk prevention mechanism in declining interest rates stage.There must be cyclical fluctuations in the interest rate market, therefore, we need to hedge interestrate risk, and establish a reasonable and perfect mechanism to prevent the risk of fluctuations ininterest rates. In this process, the financial industry should pay close attention to the level ofinterest rate fluctuations and cyclical movements, and on this basis establish a reasonable balanceof scientific management mechanism. However, taking into account the continuity of thecommercial banking performance improvement, you need to consider non-interest income, theadvancement of financial innovations and financial services.
D. In order to obtain more revenue and to circumvent the risk of fluctuations in interest ratesin non-traditional business product selection in the process of financial liberalization, the descriptive result and model estimation found that non-traditional business of commercial bankingin China has not yet formed a certain scale, and its structure is not rich, and the market is not fullystandardized, and it has limitation in enhancing the role of bank performance. The relativepercentage of non-interest income has not been improved, on the contrast, there was a decrease inthe 2006. The state-owned banks non-interest income is the relatively larger, while the originalnon-traditional business as a joint-stock commercial banks accounted for low percentage in recentyears in non-interest income, even lower than the state-owned banks. The panel data fixed effectmodel test results show, that by the use of its funds and scale advantages in the banking andfinancial reform process, the state-owned banks has a rapid growth in non-interest income, but thiseffect is still small, and the largest impact on bank earnings is the expansion of scale and savingsand loan poor change. Commercial banks meet the demand for financial services with thenon-traditional business, improving the banks’performance. According to the type of non-interestincome, a more detailed study of different types of non-traditional business shows, that a large andstable proportion of interest income is fee and commission income. For China's commercial banks,non-interest income changes are consistent with commission and fee changes in income. Therefore,under the premise of rational planned commission and fee income in a healthy market environment,we increase the financial innovation, rich its sources, and deepen the financial mixed operationwith non-interest income as the main body of non-interest income, to improve service with morerevenue.
The experience of research findings obtained in this study contribute to more clearlyunderstand the characteristics of the evolution of the performance of commercial banks in thefinancial reform process, to identify the different factors and the degree of variation. Ultimately, itserve as a refernce to ensure the continued growth of performance of China's banking industry, tofight against financial risks, to formulate and implement public policies, to improve financialservices, and to optimize and upgrade industrial structure with market demand as a guide.
20世纪30年代，产业组织理论已经初步的形成了，其中做出较大贡献的代表人物就是哈佛大学的Mason和他的学生Bain（1959），在他们的经验性研究针对特定市场研究其市场结构、市场行为及市场绩效之间的关系，发现三者间存在着一定的单向的因果关系，这些学者被称为哈佛学派，其理论即是产业组织经典的结构-行为-绩效分析范式。20世纪70年代，由于“滞胀”现象的出现，引发了芝加哥大学教授Stigler等对哈佛学派观点的质疑，形成了芝加哥学派。他们认为结构-行为-绩效之间简单的单向因果关系是不符合现实的，现实的市场中三者之间的关系应是双向的、相互影响的，他们的经验性研究结果证实了在激烈的市场竞争中，企业获得了更高的生产率，这种效率的提升节约了成本，因此使企业获得高额的利润，最终形成了以大企业和高度集中为特征的市场结构。此后，一些学者对SCP范式的修订和补充，又逐渐形成了以博弈论和信息经济学为基础和分析工具的新产业组织理论。
在理论发展过程中，大量的检验和分析市场绩效影响因素理论和实证研究都是在西方市场经济条件下提出的，因此需要在中国这样的发展中国家进行适应性检验。此前中国学者针对不同阶段的实证研究后发现了不同的市场特征。近几年，中国银行业资产快速扩张具有较强的特殊性和阶段性，以往注重资产规模、市场份额的粗放增长模式难以持续，利润持续高增长不可能是长期趋势。在迅速变化的经济结构和金融市场中，暴露出的银行获取高额利润的背后有存在较多的问题，对商业银行利润增长的驱动力的深入研究是十分必要的。这样不仅能够更准确的定量分析各因素对商业银行业绩效造成的影响，还能够使政府更具有针对性的制定和实施政策，更有效的促进金融业的健康发展，优化升级产业结构。在这样的背景下，本文依据10年的《中国金融统计年鉴》及各银行的年报数据，在产业组织的理论框架下，建立相应的模型，运用微观计量经济学方法，分析了中国商业银行业绩效演化规律及其影响因素。具体的分析和结果如下：1．根据理论建立模型检验我国商业银行业市场绩效的变化符结构主义还是效率主义的假说，确定我国商业银行业市场份额、市场绩效和效率之间的关系。首先，根据SCP范式分析市场结构的动态变化规律，发现国有商业银行仍然占有70%以上的市场份额，但是在10年当中有下降的趋势，高寡头垄断的市场格局正在逐步的弱化。其次，选取Malmquist生产率指数测度商业银行的效率，度量要素利用水平的动态指标的同时也可以看到了商业银行管理水平及技术进步情况。在前两步计算的基础上，最后借鉴经验性研究方法对商业银行业面板数据的估计后发现我国商业银行业绩效水平和市场结构无关，我国高寡头的市场结构是由于历史原因造成的，因此不符合市场势力假说。模型结果显示效率和资产规模对绩效的提升存在正向影响，但前期效率的影响较大。分阶段模型证实结果显示，无论是国有还是股份制商业银行资产规模的扩张和效率的提升都使市场绩效有所提升，但股份制商业银行明显弱于国有商业银行。因此，继续保持国有银行效率提升的同时，目前仍以资产规模的扩张而获取高额利润的商业银行业也需要防范金融风险对信贷规模扩张的影响。针对股份制商业银行业的绩效水平弱于国有商业银行的状况，则可以通过兼并和建立有效的竞争制度来使其市场绩效逐步提升。2．从竞争角度分析其对市场绩效演化的影响。结构法衡量竞争度对我国商业银行市场竞争的情况的统计性描述显示我国商业银行的竞争程度略有提升。但是，基于结构法的度量这并不能从信贷规模的扩张的竞争程度上解释其市场绩效水平的变化，第4章选取通过能够反映竞争动态变化的推测变分指标对竞争程度进行测度。测度过程中采用了广义矩估计的方法估计了贷款的需求函数，采用时点SUR对成本函数进行了估计。得到的结果显示我国商业银行的竞争程度并不是沿着某一趋势持续变化的，而是波动性的变化的，但总体来看竞争程度降低了。对比来看，CV的变化和市场结构的指标的逐渐下降趋势并不吻合，其结果并不支持SCP假说。采用Granger因果关系检验证实了竞争程度的变化是引起银行效率和绩效变化的主要因素，证实了效率结构假说的观点。选取脉冲响应函数对他们之间动态关联性分析后，发现竞争程度和效率之间的关系并不稳定的表现为正向的影响，但竞争程度在长期中能够引起绩效水平的提升，并且这种提升随着时间的持续作用更为显著。因此我国商业银行业需要引入更为完善的市场竞争机制、建立稳定的宏观经济环境和良好的金融市场秩序，如积极采用技术创新成果，发展技术，通过增加银行数量增强银行业竞争程度等手段来促进银行的竞争，从而提升行业的整体绩效水平。3．针对我国商业银行业主要利润70%来源于存贷款利差的现实，及我国利率市场化改革仍将继续的背景。研究利率变动周期与商业银行绩效的关系面板数据中，为了体现不同银行选取的不同利率期限结构，首先构建综合利差的相应指标，绩效的指标选取考虑银行经营中的成本及风险的绩效度量指标应用数据的协整检验、面板数据模型的估计方法检验两者的相关关系。发现综合利差的变动和银行绩效的变化是正相关的。为了更深入的了解利率周期变动的短期及长期的影响，选取Flannery的部分调整模型从从长期和短期进行分析，结果表明国有商业银行比股份商业银行对利率变动的敏感程度更高，商业银行在目前获取高额收益的情况下，有必要考虑利率下降阶段的风险防范机制。利率市场化必然存在周期波动，因此需要规避利率风险，建立合理、完善的防范利率波动风险的机制。在这个过程中，金融业应密切关注利率波动的水平和周期性变动，在此基础上建立合理的、科学的资产负债管理机制。但考虑到商业银行业绩效提升的持续性，则需要考虑到非利息收入、金融创新工具及金融服务的推进。
4．针对金融开放进程中为获取更多的收益及规避利率波动风险的非传统业务产品选择，描述性分析及模型估计的结果发现非传统业务在我国商业银行业的还没有形成一定的规模，并且其结构并不丰富，同时市场也没有完全的规范化，其对银行业绩效提升的作用也有限。从相对比重上来看，非利息收入占比并没有一直提升，而是在2006点出现了下降，其中国有银行的非利息收入相对提升较大，而原来以非传统业务作为经营特色的股份制商业银行在近些年中的非利息收入占比并不高，甚至低于国有银行。运用面板数据固定效应模型检验的研究结果表明，在银行金融改革进程中，国有银行利用其资金及规模的优势，在非利息收入的获取上有了快速的增长，但这种影响仍然较小，对银行收益影响最大的因素仍然是规模的扩张及存贷差的变化。但整体来说，发展商业银行的非传统业务，可以满足人们对金融服务的需求，而且有利于银行业绩效的提高。为了更细致的考察非传统业务中不同类型的差异，根据类型划分的非利息收入中，比重较大且较为稳定的就是佣金和手续费收入，我国商业银行非利息收入的变化和佣金与手续费收入的变化几乎吻合。因此，在合理规划佣金和手续费收入健康的市场环境的前提下，在以其作为非利息收入主体的同时可以通过加大金融创新力度，丰富其来源构成，深化金融的混业经营，在提高服务水平的同时获得更多的收益。
本文得到的经验研究结论有助于更加清晰地理解在金融改革进程中商业银行业绩效演化的特征，识别不同影响因素及影响程度的差异。最终，为保证我国银行业绩效水平的持续增长、抵御金融风险，有针对性的制定和实施公共政策，提高金融服务水平，以市场需求为导向引导银行业结构优化升级，有一定的借鉴意义。
With the high-speed development of China's macroeconomic, banking conducts importanttransmission as economic development agencies in the development and restructures higher profits.China's banking industry is highly profitable status quo, the necessary in-depth analysis of thecorresponding factors affecting the performance of commercial banks. However, analysis of thecommercial banking sector based on the theory of industrial organization has no definite results.Due to the different stages’features, scholars at home and abroad get very different conclusions. Atpresent, China's banking industry is in a transitional stage in the process of financial liberalization,obtaining high profits in the previous stage has also been widespread concern of all parties, andhow to maintain the efficient operation of the high profits in this context has become a hot issue todiscuss. Therefore, it is necessary to study the factors that affect the performance evolution andquantify its impact in China's banking industry gradually opening up and restructuring process,
In the 1930s, the theory of industrial organization has initially formed, Harvard University'sMason as the representatives making a greater contribution. He and his students Bain (1959) intheir empirical research to study the market structure, they find that there is a certain but one-wayrelationship between market behavior and market performance, there are certain one-way to have acausal relationship. These scholars are known as the "Harvard School", whose theory is classicalindustrial organization SCP analysis paradigm. In the 1970s, with the emergence of thephenomenon of "stagflation", University of Chicago Professor Stigler questioned the view ofHarvard School, for they think that a simple one-way causal relationship between the structure -conduct - performance is not consistent with reality. Reality market structure - conduct -performance has the two-way interaction, and empirical studies have shown that in the fiercemarket competition, enterprises have higher productivity and greater efficiency in cost savings, sothat enterprises obtain high profits, resulting in highly concentrated market structure with bigcompanies. Since then, some scholars amend and supplement the SCP paradigm, and graduallyformed "new industrial organization theory" (NIO) with the game theory and informationeconomics theory as the basis and analysis tools.
The variety of test and analysis of performance impact factor theory are put forward in theWestern market economy conditions, thus it needs adaptive test in China a developing country. Atthe same time, the previous research phases of the Chinese scholars are different, so that the marketcharacteristics are not the same. With China's banking sector assets expanding rapidly in recentyears, it has a strong specificity and periodicity. The banking sector focuses on asset size, and it isdifficult to sustain profits with the extensive growth of the market share, and high growth can not be long-term trend. Therefore, scholars launched to study the performance of commercial banks inChina, aiming to provide a reference for the government to develop and implement policies in ahealthy financial market to increase bank profits continually. In the rapidly changing economicstructure and financial markets, numerous problems are exposed behind the high profits, so that themore in-depth study of the driving force of the commercial bank profit growth is very necessary. Itwill not only be able to make more accurate quantitative analysis of the impact of various factorson the performance of commercial banks, but also enable the government develop and implementpolicies more effectively to promote the healthy development of the financial industry, optimizeand upgrade the industrial structure. According to "China's Financial Statistics Yearbook”and thebank's annual report data, under the theoretical framework of industrial organization, the paperestablishes the appropriate model and makes use of micro-econometric methods to analyze theperformance evolution and its influencing factors in China's commercial banks. Specific analysisand results are as follows:
A. Whether the changes in the inspection of commercial banks in China market performanceare consistent with the hypothesis of market power or efficiency structure hypothesis. First,according to the dynamic changes of the SCP analysis of market structure, in Chinese commercialbanking market Chinese banks still accounted for more than 70% market share, but in the last10years it shows downward trend, with oligopolistic market structure gradually weakening. Secondly,as for the efficiency measure, by adopting the Malmquist productivity index measure, it measuresthe dynamic indicators of factor utilization levels, which can be seen as metrics to reflect the levelof commercial bank management and its evolution characteristics. Finally, using generalized leastsquares method, drawing on empirical research on the commercial banking panel data estimationresults found that the level of performance and market structure of China's commercial banks hasnothing to do, and China's high oligopolistic market structure is due to historical reasons, therefore,it does not meet the market forces hypothesis. The model results show that there is a positiveimpact of the efficiency and asset size on performance improvement, but pre-efficiency. Phasedmodel confirmed that the state-owned banks or joint-stock bank’s asset expansion and improvedefficiency have made performance improved, but the joint-stock banks were significantly weakerthan the state-owned commercial banks. We need not only continue to maintain the efficiency ofstate-owned banks, but also guard against financial risks’influence on credit expansion. At thesame time, the performance of joint-stock commercial banks can be improved gradually throughmergers and the establishment of effective competition in the system.
B. Analyze the impact on the performance evolution from the perspective of competition.According to the statistical representation of the structural method to measure the degree ofcompetition on China's commercial bank market competition, the degree of competition for China'scommercial banks has increase slightly. However, based on the measurement of the structuralmethod, we cannot explain the changes in its level of performance from the degree of competitionof the expansion of the credit scale, so we can use the speculated variational indicator which canreflect dynamic changes in the competition to measure the degree of competition. Among them, we use the GMM estimation method to estimate the loan demand function, while using the point SURto estimate the cost function. Finally the degree of competition for China's commercial banks is notconstantly changing along a trend, but the volatility changes. In the overall level, competition isreduced. CV changes and a gradual downward trend of indicators of market structure does notmatch, and the results do not support the SCP hypothesis. It further clarify the relationship betweencompetition and performance, using the Granger causality test to confirm that the changes in thelevel of competition is the main factor to cause changes in the banking efficiency, and confirm theview of the efficient structure hypothesis. The dynamic correlation of the verification of both selectthe impulse response function and found that the relationship between the two is not stable aspositive impact. China's banking industry is largely impacted by policy changes, while competitionin the commercial banking sector is not price competition. The banking industry needs to introducemore perfect competition mechanism, the establish a stable macroeconomic environment and goodorder of the financial markets, such as active use of technology innovation, development oftechnology, enhancing competition in the banking sector by increasing the number of banks andother means to promote bank competition, By enhancing the banking sector individuals and theoverall level of efficiency, it will benefit the upgrading of the bank individual and overallefficiency.
C. 70 percent of China's commercial banking profits are derived from the reality of depositand loan spreads, and set China's market-oriented interest rate reform as the background. With thepanel data of cycle of changes in interest rates and commercial bank performance, in order toreflect different interest rate term structure selected by different, we first build a comprehensivespread of the corresponding indicators, and performance indicators are selected with theconsideration of the costs, and risks in the banking business performance metrics use applicationdata of Cointegration test, and make use of panel data model estimation method to test therelationship between the two. We found that fluctuation of comprehensive rates is positivelycorrelated of bank performance. We select Flannery's partial adjustment model for a betterunderstanding of interest rate cycle changes in short-term and long-term effects, to analyze it fromthe long-term and short-term, and the results show that the state-owned commercial banks is moresensitive to interest rate changes than the shares of commercial banks, and it is necessary forcommercial banks to consider the risk prevention mechanism in declining interest rates stage.There must be cyclical fluctuations in the interest rate market, therefore, we need to hedge interestrate risk, and establish a reasonable and perfect mechanism to prevent the risk of fluctuations ininterest rates. In this process, the financial industry should pay close attention to the level ofinterest rate fluctuations and cyclical movements, and on this basis establish a reasonable balanceof scientific management mechanism. However, taking into account the continuity of thecommercial banking performance improvement, you need to consider non-interest income, theadvancement of financial innovations and financial services.
D. In order to obtain more revenue and to circumvent the risk of fluctuations in interest ratesin non-traditional business product selection in the process of financial liberalization, the descriptive result and model estimation found that non-traditional business of commercial bankingin China has not yet formed a certain scale, and its structure is not rich, and the market is not fullystandardized, and it has limitation in enhancing the role of bank performance. The relativepercentage of non-interest income has not been improved, on the contrast, there was a decrease inthe 2006. The state-owned banks non-interest income is the relatively larger, while the originalnon-traditional business as a joint-stock commercial banks accounted for low percentage in recentyears in non-interest income, even lower than the state-owned banks. The panel data fixed effectmodel test results show, that by the use of its funds and scale advantages in the banking andfinancial reform process, the state-owned banks has a rapid growth in non-interest income, but thiseffect is still small, and the largest impact on bank earnings is the expansion of scale and savingsand loan poor change. Commercial banks meet the demand for financial services with thenon-traditional business, improving the banks’performance. According to the type of non-interestincome, a more detailed study of different types of non-traditional business shows, that a large andstable proportion of interest income is fee and commission income. For China's commercial banks,non-interest income changes are consistent with commission and fee changes in income. Therefore,under the premise of rational planned commission and fee income in a healthy market environment,we increase the financial innovation, rich its sources, and deepen the financial mixed operationwith non-interest income as the main body of non-interest income, to improve service with morerevenue.
The experience of research findings obtained in this study contribute to more clearlyunderstand the characteristics of the evolution of the performance of commercial banks in thefinancial reform process, to identify the different factors and the degree of variation. Ultimately, itserve as a refernce to ensure the continued growth of performance of China's banking industry, tofight against financial risks, to formulate and implement public policies, to improve financialservices, and to optimize and upgrade industrial structure with market demand as a guide.
引文
①包括中国工商银行、中国农业银行、中国银行、中国建设银行、交通银行、兴业银行、华夏银行、中信实业银行、招商银行、民生银行、广东发展银行、深圳发展银行、浦东发展银行及中国光大银行，后面的章节也将使用这14个商业银行的样本数据作为研究基础。
②本章也计算出了14家商业银行2001-2010年利息收入和非利息收入、存款、贷款和总资产的市场份额，由于篇幅的限制，在本章中不进行列举。
③Malmquist生产率指数的计算方法参照了孙巍.效率与生产率的非参数分析——方法、软件与应用[M].社会科学文献出版社. 2010
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②本章也计算出了14家商业银行2001-2010年利息收入和非利息收入、存款、贷款和总资产的市场份额，由于篇幅的限制，在本章中不进行列举。
③Malmquist生产率指数的计算方法参照了孙巍.效率与生产率的非参数分析——方法、软件与应用[M].社会科学文献出版社. 2010
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