钱塘江流域水环境承载能力研究
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摘要
水污染造成的水资源紧缺已成为我国流域社会经济发展的重大瓶颈，是影响流域水环境承载力的关键要素。如何准确评估流域水环境承载力，成为当前流域水质管理的研究热点。本研究针对流域水环境承载力量化技术问题，以浙江省境内的钱塘江流域为研究对象，从狭义水环境承载力角度，量化了流域干流和主要一级支流水体纳污能力，探索性地开展了流域典型河段水质管理研究；同时从广义水环境承载力角度，评价了社会经济发展情景下的流域水环境承载力。研究结果主要包括：
1、建立了钱塘江流域水体COD和氨氮纳污能力量化方法。通过对山溪性河流、湖泊水库、感潮河段以及各断面水质达标要求研究，运用一维、二维水质模型，测算了流域干流和一级支流水体COD、氨氮纳污能力。结果表明，在75％水文保证率流量下，钱塘江流域水体COD和氨氮总纳污能力分别为252239 t·a~(-1)与15369 t·a~(-1)。主要干流水体COD和氨氮纳污能力大小依次为：新安江＞富春江＞钱塘江＞兰江＞衢江；各行政区COD和氨氮纳污能力大小依次为：杭州市＞衢州市＞金华市＞绍兴市＞丽水市。
2、创新了流域BOD纳污能力估算技术。基于QUAL2K模型和一维水质模型，研究了钱塘江流域非感潮河段干流和一级支流水体BOD纳污能力。结果表明，基于QUAL2K模型的纳污能力计算值大于一维模型计算值，基于QUAL2K模型的m值水体纳污能力计算法，结合了总量控制与浓度控制理念，更适用于钱塘江流域水体纳污能力计算。75％水文保证率流量下，流域水体BOD总纳污能力为105809 t·a~(-1)；主要干流BOD纳污能力大小依次为：富春江＞钱塘江＞新安江＞衢江＞兰江；各行政区从大到小依次为：杭州＞金华＞衢州＞绍兴＞丽水。
3、探索了基于纳污能力的流域水质目标管理技术。为解决流域水质与水功能区要求间失衡的环境问题，以金华江流域义乌段为典型河段，基于QUAL2K模型和一维水质模型，借鉴TMDL流域管理模式，建立了基于纳污能力并同时考虑点源和面源的COD、氨氮和BOD日最大排污量水质管理模式，开展了污染负荷削减研究。结果表明，流域COD、氨氮和BOD总纳污能力分别为7264．6 kg·d~(-1)、431．2 kg·d~(-1)和4865．5 kg·d~(-1)；COD、氨氮和BOD现状排放量分别削减79．38％、88．71％和49．63％，才能基本满足义乌江流域水环境功能区要求。建议通过发展生态农业、建立滨河植被缓冲带等最佳管理措施，实现面源污染负荷削减，同时还应加强削减点源污染负荷。
4、构建了社会经济发展情景下的水环境承载力评价方法。根据钱塘江流域社会经济发展规划要求及水环境污染现状，从经济社会、资源环境、技术管理等角度，设计了流域水环境承载力评价指标体系，构建了三级层次结构模型，对钱塘江流域水环境承载力进行现状综合评价和中远期情景预测分析。结果表明，2000到2005年之间，除2001年外钱塘江流域主要行政区水环境承载力大小依次为杭州＞金华＞衢州，2001年为杭州＞衢州＞金华。维持现状、节水、增加环保投资、降低单位COD排放强度等4种措施，可不同程度地提高2010年与2015年流域水环境承载力。
水环境承载力的量化技术研究，将有利于流域产业结构调整和开发格局优化，可为流域污染物总量控制的实施与水质改善提供科学依据。
In China, water resources shortage because of water pollution becomes the vital problem to economical development and it is the key influential factor of the carrying capacity of water environmental in watershed. How to evaluate water environmental carrying capacity exactly has become a hot topic in watershed water-quality management. In order to study water environmental carrying capacity of watershed, taking Qiantang River watershed in Zhejiang province as an example. This dissertation aimed to develop methods of calculating the capacities to assimilative chemical oxygen demand(COD), ammonium(NH_4~+-N) and biochemical oxygen demand(BOD) using different water quality models. According to the results of assimilative capacity, the load reduction and allocation in typical river segment of Qiantang River watershed were studied on the basis of the principles of Total Maximum Daily Load. And the water environmental carrying capacity of Qiantang river was evaluated based on index system under different social-economic development scenarios. The main results are summarized as follows.
1. The quantitative method of COD and NH_4~+-N assimilative capacities were established. The capacity of the main stream of the Qiantang River and its primary tributary to assimilative COD and NH_4~+-N were calculated using the 1-D and 2-D water quality model. The results indicated that the total COD and NH_4~+-N assimilative capacity calculated based on 75% confidence instream flow condition is 252239 t·a~(-1) and 15369 t·a~(-1) respectively. The total COD and NH_4~+-N assimilative capacity of mainstream in Qiantang River watershed decreased in the following order: Xinan > Fuchun Segment > Qiantang Segment > Lan Segment > Qu Segment. The total COD and NH_4~+-N assimilative capacity, calculated according to district in Qiantang River watershed, decreased in the following order: Hangzhou> Quzhou > Jinhua > Shaoxing > Lishui.
2. The BOD assimilative capacity calculation model and quantitative method were developed. The capacities of the main stream of non-tidal Qiantang River and its primary tributary to assimilate BOD were studied using two theoretical scenarios. Scenario 1 was based on a QUAL2K model, while Scenario 2 was based on a 1-D model. The BOD assimilative capacity calculated in the basis of the QUAL2K model was larger than that of the 1-D model. The m value assimilative capacity method based on the QUAL2K model is suitable for Qiantang River watershed, as it integrated Total Maximum Daily Load with pollutant concentration control. The total BOD assimilative capacity of Qiantang River watershed is 105809 t·a~(-1) under 75% confidence instream flow-condition, and it decreased in the following order: Fuchun Segment > Qiantang Segment > Xinan Segment > Qu Segment > Lan Segment. The total BOD assimilative capacity, calculated according to district in Qiantang River watershed, decreased in the following order: Hangzhou > Jinhua > Quzhou > Shaoxing > Lishui.
3. The exploratory study for the technique of water-quality target management was carried out. In order to address the imbalance between water quality and designated use in Yiwu Segment, Jinhua River watershed, a environmental management mode for the watershed was developed based on assimilative capacity. The assimilative capacity of BOD and NH_4~+-N of the Yiwu Segment, Jinhua River watershed, was estimated on the basis of QUAL2K model, the assimilative capacity of COD was estimated on the basis of 1-D model. The COD, NH_4~+-N and BOD Total maximum daily load were developed while considering both point and non-point sources. The COD, NH_4~+-N and BOD assimilative capacity of Yiwu segment were 7264.6 kg·d~(-1), 431.20 kg·d~(-1) and 4865.5 kg·d~(-1) respectively. Under present condition, pollutant load reduction for COD, NH_4~+-N and BOD reached 79.38%, 88.71% and 49.63% respectively, and the water quality of Yiwu River watershed matched its designated use. The Best Management Practices such as ecological agriculture, riverfront vegetated buffer zone were suggested to reduce load from non-point sources. On the other hand, the load from point sources can not be ignored.
4. The evaluation method of water environmental carrying capacity under different social-economic development scenarios was constructed. According to the socioeconomic development planning demand and water pollution state in Qiantang River watershed, an index system to evaluate the carrying capacity of watershed is designed from the aspects of economy, society, resources, environment, and technology, and a three-layer hierarchy-structured water environmental carrying capacity evaluation model was proposed. The current situation of water environmental carrying capacity was evaluated and different scenarios of medium or long period were analyzed using the water environmental carrying capacity evaluation model. The result of current situation evaluation showed that the carrying capacity of water environment in three regions from year 2000 to 2005, decreased in the following order: Hangzhou > Jinhua > Quzhou, except 2001. The scenarios analysis indicated that all of the four kinds measure, such as maintain current situation, save water, increase investment of environmental protection, reduce amount of COD per unit discharge, could improve the water environmental carrying capacity of Qiantang River watershed in 2010 and 2015 respectively.
The quantitative technique research of water environmental carrying capacity will be useful for industrial structure adjustment and developmental pattern optimization, and can provide scientific basis for pollutant total amount control implementation and water quality improvement in watershed.
1、建立了钱塘江流域水体COD和氨氮纳污能力量化方法。通过对山溪性河流、湖泊水库、感潮河段以及各断面水质达标要求研究，运用一维、二维水质模型，测算了流域干流和一级支流水体COD、氨氮纳污能力。结果表明，在75％水文保证率流量下，钱塘江流域水体COD和氨氮总纳污能力分别为252239 t·a~(-1)与15369 t·a~(-1)。主要干流水体COD和氨氮纳污能力大小依次为：新安江＞富春江＞钱塘江＞兰江＞衢江；各行政区COD和氨氮纳污能力大小依次为：杭州市＞衢州市＞金华市＞绍兴市＞丽水市。
2、创新了流域BOD纳污能力估算技术。基于QUAL2K模型和一维水质模型，研究了钱塘江流域非感潮河段干流和一级支流水体BOD纳污能力。结果表明，基于QUAL2K模型的纳污能力计算值大于一维模型计算值，基于QUAL2K模型的m值水体纳污能力计算法，结合了总量控制与浓度控制理念，更适用于钱塘江流域水体纳污能力计算。75％水文保证率流量下，流域水体BOD总纳污能力为105809 t·a~(-1)；主要干流BOD纳污能力大小依次为：富春江＞钱塘江＞新安江＞衢江＞兰江；各行政区从大到小依次为：杭州＞金华＞衢州＞绍兴＞丽水。
3、探索了基于纳污能力的流域水质目标管理技术。为解决流域水质与水功能区要求间失衡的环境问题，以金华江流域义乌段为典型河段，基于QUAL2K模型和一维水质模型，借鉴TMDL流域管理模式，建立了基于纳污能力并同时考虑点源和面源的COD、氨氮和BOD日最大排污量水质管理模式，开展了污染负荷削减研究。结果表明，流域COD、氨氮和BOD总纳污能力分别为7264．6 kg·d~(-1)、431．2 kg·d~(-1)和4865．5 kg·d~(-1)；COD、氨氮和BOD现状排放量分别削减79．38％、88．71％和49．63％，才能基本满足义乌江流域水环境功能区要求。建议通过发展生态农业、建立滨河植被缓冲带等最佳管理措施，实现面源污染负荷削减，同时还应加强削减点源污染负荷。
4、构建了社会经济发展情景下的水环境承载力评价方法。根据钱塘江流域社会经济发展规划要求及水环境污染现状，从经济社会、资源环境、技术管理等角度，设计了流域水环境承载力评价指标体系，构建了三级层次结构模型，对钱塘江流域水环境承载力进行现状综合评价和中远期情景预测分析。结果表明，2000到2005年之间，除2001年外钱塘江流域主要行政区水环境承载力大小依次为杭州＞金华＞衢州，2001年为杭州＞衢州＞金华。维持现状、节水、增加环保投资、降低单位COD排放强度等4种措施，可不同程度地提高2010年与2015年流域水环境承载力。
水环境承载力的量化技术研究，将有利于流域产业结构调整和开发格局优化，可为流域污染物总量控制的实施与水质改善提供科学依据。
In China, water resources shortage because of water pollution becomes the vital problem to economical development and it is the key influential factor of the carrying capacity of water environmental in watershed. How to evaluate water environmental carrying capacity exactly has become a hot topic in watershed water-quality management. In order to study water environmental carrying capacity of watershed, taking Qiantang River watershed in Zhejiang province as an example. This dissertation aimed to develop methods of calculating the capacities to assimilative chemical oxygen demand(COD), ammonium(NH_4~+-N) and biochemical oxygen demand(BOD) using different water quality models. According to the results of assimilative capacity, the load reduction and allocation in typical river segment of Qiantang River watershed were studied on the basis of the principles of Total Maximum Daily Load. And the water environmental carrying capacity of Qiantang river was evaluated based on index system under different social-economic development scenarios. The main results are summarized as follows.
1. The quantitative method of COD and NH_4~+-N assimilative capacities were established. The capacity of the main stream of the Qiantang River and its primary tributary to assimilative COD and NH_4~+-N were calculated using the 1-D and 2-D water quality model. The results indicated that the total COD and NH_4~+-N assimilative capacity calculated based on 75% confidence instream flow condition is 252239 t·a~(-1) and 15369 t·a~(-1) respectively. The total COD and NH_4~+-N assimilative capacity of mainstream in Qiantang River watershed decreased in the following order: Xinan > Fuchun Segment > Qiantang Segment > Lan Segment > Qu Segment. The total COD and NH_4~+-N assimilative capacity, calculated according to district in Qiantang River watershed, decreased in the following order: Hangzhou> Quzhou > Jinhua > Shaoxing > Lishui.
2. The BOD assimilative capacity calculation model and quantitative method were developed. The capacities of the main stream of non-tidal Qiantang River and its primary tributary to assimilate BOD were studied using two theoretical scenarios. Scenario 1 was based on a QUAL2K model, while Scenario 2 was based on a 1-D model. The BOD assimilative capacity calculated in the basis of the QUAL2K model was larger than that of the 1-D model. The m value assimilative capacity method based on the QUAL2K model is suitable for Qiantang River watershed, as it integrated Total Maximum Daily Load with pollutant concentration control. The total BOD assimilative capacity of Qiantang River watershed is 105809 t·a~(-1) under 75% confidence instream flow-condition, and it decreased in the following order: Fuchun Segment > Qiantang Segment > Xinan Segment > Qu Segment > Lan Segment. The total BOD assimilative capacity, calculated according to district in Qiantang River watershed, decreased in the following order: Hangzhou > Jinhua > Quzhou > Shaoxing > Lishui.
3. The exploratory study for the technique of water-quality target management was carried out. In order to address the imbalance between water quality and designated use in Yiwu Segment, Jinhua River watershed, a environmental management mode for the watershed was developed based on assimilative capacity. The assimilative capacity of BOD and NH_4~+-N of the Yiwu Segment, Jinhua River watershed, was estimated on the basis of QUAL2K model, the assimilative capacity of COD was estimated on the basis of 1-D model. The COD, NH_4~+-N and BOD Total maximum daily load were developed while considering both point and non-point sources. The COD, NH_4~+-N and BOD assimilative capacity of Yiwu segment were 7264.6 kg·d~(-1), 431.20 kg·d~(-1) and 4865.5 kg·d~(-1) respectively. Under present condition, pollutant load reduction for COD, NH_4~+-N and BOD reached 79.38%, 88.71% and 49.63% respectively, and the water quality of Yiwu River watershed matched its designated use. The Best Management Practices such as ecological agriculture, riverfront vegetated buffer zone were suggested to reduce load from non-point sources. On the other hand, the load from point sources can not be ignored.
4. The evaluation method of water environmental carrying capacity under different social-economic development scenarios was constructed. According to the socioeconomic development planning demand and water pollution state in Qiantang River watershed, an index system to evaluate the carrying capacity of watershed is designed from the aspects of economy, society, resources, environment, and technology, and a three-layer hierarchy-structured water environmental carrying capacity evaluation model was proposed. The current situation of water environmental carrying capacity was evaluated and different scenarios of medium or long period were analyzed using the water environmental carrying capacity evaluation model. The result of current situation evaluation showed that the carrying capacity of water environment in three regions from year 2000 to 2005, decreased in the following order: Hangzhou > Jinhua > Quzhou, except 2001. The scenarios analysis indicated that all of the four kinds measure, such as maintain current situation, save water, increase investment of environmental protection, reduce amount of COD per unit discharge, could improve the water environmental carrying capacity of Qiantang River watershed in 2010 and 2015 respectively.
The quantitative technique research of water environmental carrying capacity will be useful for industrial structure adjustment and developmental pattern optimization, and can provide scientific basis for pollutant total amount control implementation and water quality improvement in watershed.
引文
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