跨界突发性水污染事故预警系统研究与应用
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摘要
近年来，重大突发性水污染事故频发，对经济、社会和生态环境造成巨大损失，其中很多污染事故造成的危害涉及到不同行政区域，甚至延续到国界之外，成为跨界污染事故。与非跨界水污染事故相比，跨界突发性水污染事故污染强度大，它的影响时间上具有延续性和滞后性，空间上具有广泛性和远程传输特点。我国未全面实行非行政区域的流域管理模式，跨界双方在水体功能类别、流域管理水平、经济水平方面存在差异，同时国界双方的环境标准也存在显著的差异，发生突发性跨界水污染事故往往导致引发水环境纠纷。因此，本文在对国内外跨界环境污染预警案例的调研基础上，针对跨界突发性水污染事故预警在实践中存在的问题，以寒冷地区典型跨界流域松花江为研究对象，开展了跨界突发性水污染事故预警系统关键技术研究。
针对跨界突发性水污染事故特点，采用PSR模型框架分别构建了适合溶解态有机类污染和漂浮类有机类污染的跨界突发性水污染事故预警指标体系，并对各预警指标的计算方法进行了定量化表征。针对溶解态有机污染，从事故压力，事故状态和事故响应三方面考虑了环境风险源、健康与生态风险、跨界风险、应急响应与处置四个因素，选取了12个预警指标；漂浮类有机污染同样考虑了以上四个因素，选取了11个预警指标。采用层次分析法，确定了跨界水污染事故预警指标的权重。
基于跨界突发性水污染事故预警技术需求，分析了适用于松花江干流溶解态有机物污染物远程传输的WAF水质模型（课题组成员研发）的主要控制方程和输入输出，并进行了模型实验，实验结果表明模拟值和监测值的相对正负误差小于40%；分析了低温江河的溢油模型（课题组成员研发）的主要控制方程、输入与输出和适用条件，实现了寒冷地区江河溢油模型的软件开发。
为建立完备的跨界水污染事故预警技术体系，确定在时间和空间维度研究跨界水环境污染事故预警机制。在时间维度上，事故预警应重点进行事故发生时间段内的危害预测，确立了跨界风险源识别、特征污染物快速确定、污染物迁移转化实时模拟、事故危害预测四个相互关联的预警单元，设计了跨界突发性水环境污染事故预警工作流程。在空间维度上，考虑到污染物迁移转化模型输入参数的准确性、更明确的应急责任和敏感目标的保护，确定了跨界污染事故预警区域的划分原则。其次，确定了跨界水污染事故预警各单项指标的权重和标准值，将跨界水污染事故预警分级划分为“特别重大、重大、较大和一般”四个级别。在此基础上，采用AHP—模糊综合评价法，构建了跨界环境污染事故模糊判断矩阵，使用最大隶属度原则对风险模糊判断矩阵的向量进行综合分析评价。利用所构建的跨界水污染事故预警技术体系，对松花江硝基苯事件和跨界环境风险源苯酚泄漏事故分别进行了实证分析。实证分析结果如下：松花江硝基苯事件对于哈尔滨市和哈巴罗夫斯克市是重大跨界水污染事故和较大跨界水污染事故；佳木斯黑龙农药苯酚储罐泄漏引发的跨界水污染事故，对于哈巴罗夫斯克市是特别重大跨界水污染事故。
将污染物迁移转化模型与预警指标体系、模糊评价体系进行无缝耦合，形成了跨界水污染事故动态预警模型。对松花江跨界突发性水污染事故预警平台进行了框架，系统功能和界面设计，研究确定了开发环境和开发工具，构建了预警平台地理空间数据库系统。在现有网络环境上，采用系统工程和软件工程技术，开发了基于WebGIS跨界突发性水环境污染事故预警平台。预警平台将松花江流域水文地质、社会经济、水污染事故和地理信息等信息集成，在Internet上实现跨界突发性水污染事故预警动态模型的可视化，在网络发布系统中同时使用B/S与C/S结构，实现了环境污染事故预测结果的实时空间化表达。
对2005年松花江硝基苯水污染事件进行了事故反演跨，反演结果表明预警平台软件能快速、准确地演示硝基苯的迁移转化过程，硝基苯浓度预测值与历史监测数据的误差小于20%，事故预警判定结果与历史情境相符。以大庆采油十跨界环境风险源进行虚拟事故案例分析，软件能针对寒冷地区江河水文气候特征，在非冰封期和冰封期不同时期，可自动判断跨界溢油污染事故发生与否，同时模拟溢油污染团的风化迁移过程。
Recently, the significant sudden water pollution accidents have been takenplace frequently, which causing huge losses on the economic, social and ecologicalenvironment. The effects caused by pollution accidents involving differentadministrative regions, and even extending beyond National boundaries, which leadto transboundary pollution accidents. In comparision with non-transboundary waterpollution accidents, transboundary water pollution accidents have its owncharacteristics: more intense, longer duration of its impact, extensive and remotetransmission in space. In addition, Non-administrative regions management modelof drainage-basin have not been mplemented comprehensively in China. Thedifferences, between the two administrative regions, such as the level ofmanagement, economic development, environmental standards are needed to beconsidered in the event of unexpected transboundary water pollution accident. Dueto poor risk communication, and bad coordination capacity of emergency response,water and environmental disputes could be happened in a transboundary accident.Therefore, on the basis of researching on domestic and international transboundaryenvironmental pollution case and the accident early warning mechanis m, taking thetypical transboundary river basin Songhua River as the research object, keytechnology of transboundary water pollution accident early warning system havebeen researched for the problems of transboundary water pollution accidentwarning in practice.
Firstly, based on the PSR model framework, early warning indicators systemof significiant transboundary water pollution accident has been built, which aresuitable for soluble pollution and oil-spill for its’s characteristics. Calculationmethod of each indicator also been researched thoroughly. For solub le pollution,12indexes have been selected from the4aspects: pollution accident characteristics,health and ecological risk, transboundary risk and emergency response and disposal;for oil spill,11indexes have been selected from the4aspects: pollution accidentcharacteristics, ecological risk，transboundary risk and emergency response anddisposal. At the end, the analytic hierarchy process has been used to determine theweights of early warning indexes for the transboundary water pollution accidents.
Based on the requirements of transboundary early warning systems of suddenwater pollution accident, this paper developed WAF water quality model. Themodel is applicable to the remote transmission and migration real-time dynamicsimulation of the soluble organic pollution in the rivers. Error analysis results showthat the error of forecast value and historical monitoring data is less than40%. This paper also analyzed the main governing equations, input,output and the applicableconditions of oil spill model for low temperature rivers which been developed bymember in our research group. Fuzzy comparison matrix for Transboundaryenvironmental pollution event was built by appling AHP-synthetically fuzzyassessment, and the maximum membership degree princ iple was used forcomprehensive analys is and evaluation of determined matrix vector. Gradingstandards of each early warning index have also been obtained by referring, and theTransboundary sudden water pollution accidents were divided into four levels:particularly significant, significant, general, and slightly. Using the establishedmethod, two empirical analysis were completed respectively in this paper: theSonghua River nitrobenzene incident and a typical class III transboundaryenvironmental risks source. The empirical results show that: the River nitrobenzeneevent was significant Transboundary environmental pollution event for the Harbinand general Transboundary environmental pollution event for Khabarovsk;transboundary water pollution accident caused by phenol storage tank leak inJiamusi Heilong Pesticide&Chemical Corporationis is particularly significanttans-boundary environmental pollution event for Khabarovsk.
For the establishment of a comprehensive transboundary water pollutionaccident warning system, this paper analyzes the risk of characteristics oftransboundary water environment pollution accident fie ld. Because of the analys isresults, early warning mechanis m of environment of transboundary water pollutionaccidentshave been researched in time and space dimensions respectively. In thetime dimension, accident early warning focuses on harm prediction when theaccident occurred. Therefore this paper chooses five interrelated early warningmodules as the following: Transboundary water environmental risk sourceidentification, rapid detection of particular pollutants, pollutants redistribution andtransportation real-time simulation, and accidence harm prediction. On basic ofabove research results, we have developed the early warning work flow fortransboundary sudden water environment pollution accident. In the spatialdimension, according to the accidents risk fie ld analysis results, accident earlywarning focused on the risk prediction of aquatic ecosystems and the environmentof sensitive receptors in the transboundary polluted rivers. Taking into account thethree aspects:accuracy of input parameters of pollutants migration andtransformation model, clearer emergency responsibility and the protection ofsensitive targets, we provided the warning area divided princip le of transboundarypollution accidence.
Based on the above, this paper provided a dynamic early warning models fortransboundary water pollution accident by coupling pollutants migration andtransformation of models, early warning indicator system and the fuzzy evaluation system perfectly. System development environment, development tools, the overallframework of system functionality and interface design were deployed anddescripted comprehensively, and build a geo-spatial database system. On this basis,this paper established transboundary water environment pollution accident earlywarning system based on WebGIS by integrating systems engineering and softwareengineering technology under the existing network environment conditions.
Information such as the Songhua River Basin hydrogeological, socio-economic,a water pollution accident, and geographic information system were integrated inthe system, and then the visua lization of the transboundary water pollution accidentwarning dynamic model on the Internet were also achieved in order to establishtransboundary water pollution accident risk early warning platform. In the webpublishing module, System achieved environmental pollution accident predictionresults real-time spatial expression by using B/S and C/S structure.
Taking Songhua River nitrobenzene water pollution accident in2005as anexample, this paper have inversed the historical pollution cases. The inversionresults show that the system can demonstrates nitrobenzene migration andtransformation process quickly and accurately, the error of nitrobenzeneconcentration fie ld calculated results with historical monitoring data is less than5%,accident warning results match with historical context. Taking typical class Itransboundary environmental risks source in Daqing Oilfie ld Co., Ltd as a virtualaccident case, the software can automatically determine if there is transboundarypollution event for the non-frozen period (glacial streams) and frozen, and canaccurately simulate the oil spill group weathering and migration process.
针对跨界突发性水污染事故特点，采用PSR模型框架分别构建了适合溶解态有机类污染和漂浮类有机类污染的跨界突发性水污染事故预警指标体系，并对各预警指标的计算方法进行了定量化表征。针对溶解态有机污染，从事故压力，事故状态和事故响应三方面考虑了环境风险源、健康与生态风险、跨界风险、应急响应与处置四个因素，选取了12个预警指标；漂浮类有机污染同样考虑了以上四个因素，选取了11个预警指标。采用层次分析法，确定了跨界水污染事故预警指标的权重。
基于跨界突发性水污染事故预警技术需求，分析了适用于松花江干流溶解态有机物污染物远程传输的WAF水质模型（课题组成员研发）的主要控制方程和输入输出，并进行了模型实验，实验结果表明模拟值和监测值的相对正负误差小于40%；分析了低温江河的溢油模型（课题组成员研发）的主要控制方程、输入与输出和适用条件，实现了寒冷地区江河溢油模型的软件开发。
为建立完备的跨界水污染事故预警技术体系，确定在时间和空间维度研究跨界水环境污染事故预警机制。在时间维度上，事故预警应重点进行事故发生时间段内的危害预测，确立了跨界风险源识别、特征污染物快速确定、污染物迁移转化实时模拟、事故危害预测四个相互关联的预警单元，设计了跨界突发性水环境污染事故预警工作流程。在空间维度上，考虑到污染物迁移转化模型输入参数的准确性、更明确的应急责任和敏感目标的保护，确定了跨界污染事故预警区域的划分原则。其次，确定了跨界水污染事故预警各单项指标的权重和标准值，将跨界水污染事故预警分级划分为“特别重大、重大、较大和一般”四个级别。在此基础上，采用AHP—模糊综合评价法，构建了跨界环境污染事故模糊判断矩阵，使用最大隶属度原则对风险模糊判断矩阵的向量进行综合分析评价。利用所构建的跨界水污染事故预警技术体系，对松花江硝基苯事件和跨界环境风险源苯酚泄漏事故分别进行了实证分析。实证分析结果如下：松花江硝基苯事件对于哈尔滨市和哈巴罗夫斯克市是重大跨界水污染事故和较大跨界水污染事故；佳木斯黑龙农药苯酚储罐泄漏引发的跨界水污染事故，对于哈巴罗夫斯克市是特别重大跨界水污染事故。
将污染物迁移转化模型与预警指标体系、模糊评价体系进行无缝耦合，形成了跨界水污染事故动态预警模型。对松花江跨界突发性水污染事故预警平台进行了框架，系统功能和界面设计，研究确定了开发环境和开发工具，构建了预警平台地理空间数据库系统。在现有网络环境上，采用系统工程和软件工程技术，开发了基于WebGIS跨界突发性水环境污染事故预警平台。预警平台将松花江流域水文地质、社会经济、水污染事故和地理信息等信息集成，在Internet上实现跨界突发性水污染事故预警动态模型的可视化，在网络发布系统中同时使用B/S与C/S结构，实现了环境污染事故预测结果的实时空间化表达。
对2005年松花江硝基苯水污染事件进行了事故反演跨，反演结果表明预警平台软件能快速、准确地演示硝基苯的迁移转化过程，硝基苯浓度预测值与历史监测数据的误差小于20%，事故预警判定结果与历史情境相符。以大庆采油十跨界环境风险源进行虚拟事故案例分析，软件能针对寒冷地区江河水文气候特征，在非冰封期和冰封期不同时期，可自动判断跨界溢油污染事故发生与否，同时模拟溢油污染团的风化迁移过程。
Recently, the significant sudden water pollution accidents have been takenplace frequently, which causing huge losses on the economic, social and ecologicalenvironment. The effects caused by pollution accidents involving differentadministrative regions, and even extending beyond National boundaries, which leadto transboundary pollution accidents. In comparision with non-transboundary waterpollution accidents, transboundary water pollution accidents have its owncharacteristics: more intense, longer duration of its impact, extensive and remotetransmission in space. In addition, Non-administrative regions management modelof drainage-basin have not been mplemented comprehensively in China. Thedifferences, between the two administrative regions, such as the level ofmanagement, economic development, environmental standards are needed to beconsidered in the event of unexpected transboundary water pollution accident. Dueto poor risk communication, and bad coordination capacity of emergency response,water and environmental disputes could be happened in a transboundary accident.Therefore, on the basis of researching on domestic and international transboundaryenvironmental pollution case and the accident early warning mechanis m, taking thetypical transboundary river basin Songhua River as the research object, keytechnology of transboundary water pollution accident early warning system havebeen researched for the problems of transboundary water pollution accidentwarning in practice.
Firstly, based on the PSR model framework, early warning indicators systemof significiant transboundary water pollution accident has been built, which aresuitable for soluble pollution and oil-spill for its’s characteristics. Calculationmethod of each indicator also been researched thoroughly. For solub le pollution,12indexes have been selected from the4aspects: pollution accident characteristics,health and ecological risk, transboundary risk and emergency response and disposal;for oil spill,11indexes have been selected from the4aspects: pollution accidentcharacteristics, ecological risk，transboundary risk and emergency response anddisposal. At the end, the analytic hierarchy process has been used to determine theweights of early warning indexes for the transboundary water pollution accidents.
Based on the requirements of transboundary early warning systems of suddenwater pollution accident, this paper developed WAF water quality model. Themodel is applicable to the remote transmission and migration real-time dynamicsimulation of the soluble organic pollution in the rivers. Error analysis results showthat the error of forecast value and historical monitoring data is less than40%. This paper also analyzed the main governing equations, input,output and the applicableconditions of oil spill model for low temperature rivers which been developed bymember in our research group. Fuzzy comparison matrix for Transboundaryenvironmental pollution event was built by appling AHP-synthetically fuzzyassessment, and the maximum membership degree princ iple was used forcomprehensive analys is and evaluation of determined matrix vector. Gradingstandards of each early warning index have also been obtained by referring, and theTransboundary sudden water pollution accidents were divided into four levels:particularly significant, significant, general, and slightly. Using the establishedmethod, two empirical analysis were completed respectively in this paper: theSonghua River nitrobenzene incident and a typical class III transboundaryenvironmental risks source. The empirical results show that: the River nitrobenzeneevent was significant Transboundary environmental pollution event for the Harbinand general Transboundary environmental pollution event for Khabarovsk;transboundary water pollution accident caused by phenol storage tank leak inJiamusi Heilong Pesticide&Chemical Corporationis is particularly significanttans-boundary environmental pollution event for Khabarovsk.
For the establishment of a comprehensive transboundary water pollutionaccident warning system, this paper analyzes the risk of characteristics oftransboundary water environment pollution accident fie ld. Because of the analys isresults, early warning mechanis m of environment of transboundary water pollutionaccidentshave been researched in time and space dimensions respectively. In thetime dimension, accident early warning focuses on harm prediction when theaccident occurred. Therefore this paper chooses five interrelated early warningmodules as the following: Transboundary water environmental risk sourceidentification, rapid detection of particular pollutants, pollutants redistribution andtransportation real-time simulation, and accidence harm prediction. On basic ofabove research results, we have developed the early warning work flow fortransboundary sudden water environment pollution accident. In the spatialdimension, according to the accidents risk fie ld analysis results, accident earlywarning focused on the risk prediction of aquatic ecosystems and the environmentof sensitive receptors in the transboundary polluted rivers. Taking into account thethree aspects:accuracy of input parameters of pollutants migration andtransformation model, clearer emergency responsibility and the protection ofsensitive targets, we provided the warning area divided princip le of transboundarypollution accidence.
Based on the above, this paper provided a dynamic early warning models fortransboundary water pollution accident by coupling pollutants migration andtransformation of models, early warning indicator system and the fuzzy evaluation system perfectly. System development environment, development tools, the overallframework of system functionality and interface design were deployed anddescripted comprehensively, and build a geo-spatial database system. On this basis,this paper established transboundary water environment pollution accident earlywarning system based on WebGIS by integrating systems engineering and softwareengineering technology under the existing network environment conditions.
Information such as the Songhua River Basin hydrogeological, socio-economic,a water pollution accident, and geographic information system were integrated inthe system, and then the visua lization of the transboundary water pollution accidentwarning dynamic model on the Internet were also achieved in order to establishtransboundary water pollution accident risk early warning platform. In the webpublishing module, System achieved environmental pollution accident predictionresults real-time spatial expression by using B/S and C/S structure.
Taking Songhua River nitrobenzene water pollution accident in2005as anexample, this paper have inversed the historical pollution cases. The inversionresults show that the system can demonstrates nitrobenzene migration andtransformation process quickly and accurately, the error of nitrobenzeneconcentration fie ld calculated results with historical monitoring data is less than5%,accident warning results match with historical context. Taking typical class Itransboundary environmental risks source in Daqing Oilfie ld Co., Ltd as a virtualaccident case, the software can automatically determine if there is transboundarypollution event for the non-frozen period (glacial streams) and frozen, and canaccurately simulate the oil spill group weathering and migration process.
引文
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