极端气候事件研究规律
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摘要
本文基于对国内外极端气候事件研究的全面回顾,指出了极端气候事件、干旱指数破纪录事件等方面还有很多问题有待于深入研究并对其中的部分问题进行了研究和探讨。首先利用破纪录事件理论研究了中国干旱破纪录事件的时空分布特征,随后基于重标极差方法研发了一种新的动力学结构突变检测方法,同时利用去趋势波动分析方法对中国东部的531年旱涝等级的指数序列进行了研究,分析旱涝演变的无标度特征,然后研究了北京地区日降水量的极端变化特征,最后研究了北京地区的气候复杂性。主要结论如下：
1)全国帕尔默干旱指数破纪录事件年发生频次大体上存在两次较明显的跃变,两次跃变的出现均是以跃变之后的帕尔默干旱指数破纪录事件显著偏多为主要特征；华北帕尔默干旱指数破纪录事件年发生频次和太平洋几十年涛动也有较好的相关。
2)提出了一种针对相关性时间序列动力学结构突变检测的新方法—滑动移除重标极差分析,该方法能够准确地检测出理想序列中的动力学结构突变,其检测结果具有很强的抗噪能力。
3)采用去趋势波动分析方法对中国旱涝等级指数序列进行了标度分析,发现旱涝演变具有标度不变性,具有长程相关特征。
4)利用北京地区日降水资料研究了北京地区极端降水特征,指出北京地区极端降水呈下降趋势。
5)基于日降水和日平均气温的多尺度样本熵的空间分布格局反映了北京地区大气环流以及地形对气候的影响；城市化使得日降水的复杂度升高,对日平均气温的影响则不明显。
Based on the comprehensive review of extreme climate events, it is pointed out that there are still many problems needed to be understood. This paper focus on the topics of the evolution of extreme climate events over time, the temporal and spatial distribution of the China's arid events, the method of abrupt climate detection, the extreme daily rainfall variations and climate complexity in Beijing area. The main conclusions are as follows:
1) There exists two obvious jump of the frequency of the record-breaking events of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) over China. The main features of the two jumps are that the PDSI record-breaking events are significantly above normal. And there is good correlation between the frequency of PDSI record-breaking events and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
2) A new method, moving cut data-rescaled range analysis (MC-R/S), is proposed in this paper. Tests on time series suggest that the MC-R/S method almost does not depend on the length of subseries and are less affected by noises. The MC-R/S method is very suitable to detect abrupt changes of dynamic structure.
3) By using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) method, it was found that the drought and waterlogging indexes (DWI) exhibit scaling and long-range correlation characteristics. Namely, the occurrence of drought and waterlogging has persistence characteristic.
4) By using extreme precipitation indices proposed by ETCCDMI Project, analysis indicates that the changes of the intensity and frequency of the extreme daily precipitation in Beijing area shows a downward trend, and the intensity and frequency of daily precipitation decrease drastically since the late 1990s.
5) By using multi-scale sample entropy method, we analyze daily precipitation and daily temperature time series in order to study the complexity of the climate in Beijing. Study shows that the spatial distribution pattern of multi-scale sample entropy of the precipitation and daily temperature reflects the atmospheric circulation pattern in Beijing area as well as the impact of topography on climate. Spatial distribution of the multi-scale sample entropy of precipitation reflects the transport direction of water vapor and spatial variation of precipitation gradient. We also find that urbanization in Beijing increase the complexity of precipitation and the impact of urbanization on daily temperature is not significant.
1)全国帕尔默干旱指数破纪录事件年发生频次大体上存在两次较明显的跃变,两次跃变的出现均是以跃变之后的帕尔默干旱指数破纪录事件显著偏多为主要特征；华北帕尔默干旱指数破纪录事件年发生频次和太平洋几十年涛动也有较好的相关。
2)提出了一种针对相关性时间序列动力学结构突变检测的新方法—滑动移除重标极差分析,该方法能够准确地检测出理想序列中的动力学结构突变,其检测结果具有很强的抗噪能力。
3)采用去趋势波动分析方法对中国旱涝等级指数序列进行了标度分析,发现旱涝演变具有标度不变性,具有长程相关特征。
4)利用北京地区日降水资料研究了北京地区极端降水特征,指出北京地区极端降水呈下降趋势。
5)基于日降水和日平均气温的多尺度样本熵的空间分布格局反映了北京地区大气环流以及地形对气候的影响；城市化使得日降水的复杂度升高,对日平均气温的影响则不明显。
Based on the comprehensive review of extreme climate events, it is pointed out that there are still many problems needed to be understood. This paper focus on the topics of the evolution of extreme climate events over time, the temporal and spatial distribution of the China's arid events, the method of abrupt climate detection, the extreme daily rainfall variations and climate complexity in Beijing area. The main conclusions are as follows:
1) There exists two obvious jump of the frequency of the record-breaking events of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) over China. The main features of the two jumps are that the PDSI record-breaking events are significantly above normal. And there is good correlation between the frequency of PDSI record-breaking events and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
2) A new method, moving cut data-rescaled range analysis (MC-R/S), is proposed in this paper. Tests on time series suggest that the MC-R/S method almost does not depend on the length of subseries and are less affected by noises. The MC-R/S method is very suitable to detect abrupt changes of dynamic structure.
3) By using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) method, it was found that the drought and waterlogging indexes (DWI) exhibit scaling and long-range correlation characteristics. Namely, the occurrence of drought and waterlogging has persistence characteristic.
4) By using extreme precipitation indices proposed by ETCCDMI Project, analysis indicates that the changes of the intensity and frequency of the extreme daily precipitation in Beijing area shows a downward trend, and the intensity and frequency of daily precipitation decrease drastically since the late 1990s.
5) By using multi-scale sample entropy method, we analyze daily precipitation and daily temperature time series in order to study the complexity of the climate in Beijing. Study shows that the spatial distribution pattern of multi-scale sample entropy of the precipitation and daily temperature reflects the atmospheric circulation pattern in Beijing area as well as the impact of topography on climate. Spatial distribution of the multi-scale sample entropy of precipitation reflects the transport direction of water vapor and spatial variation of precipitation gradient. We also find that urbanization in Beijing increase the complexity of precipitation and the impact of urbanization on daily temperature is not significant.
引文
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