巢湖流域水环境质量评价与水质预测模型研究
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摘要
巢湖,位于安徽省中部,因形似鸟巢而得名,与洞庭湖、鄱阳湖、太湖、洪泽湖被誉为中国五大淡水湖。
近年来湖泊周边污染加剧,水质严重下降,富营养化现象比较严重。本文根据巢湖2006~2007年的水质监测资料,利用模糊数学评价方法,建立巢湖水环境质量综合评价模型。评价结果表明巢湖湖体的主要污染物为氨氮和总磷,运用此方法得出的评价结果与实际监测结果基本一致。现阶段必须对流域内的污染进行有效控制,防止富营养化的加剧和恶化。
在水质预测方面本文根据灰色数学理论,建立了灰色预测模型。选取南淝河入湖区2007年1至10月的监测数据,利用该模型对DO、chl_a、NH3-N、CODMn等水质指标在11月和12月期间的水质进行了模拟预测,并采用后验差法对模型进行精度分析。在论文中由于选取的水质监测数据还不够完整,直接影响预测结果;当水质指标的样本数据变化波动较大时,模型的精度和预测精度都较差。
通过巢湖污染现状,对水质有一个总体把握,为巢湖环境规划、环境管理及决策者提供一个可靠的科学理论依据。用灰色预测模型预测水质的变化趋势,使人们充分认识到巢湖水质恶化问题的严峻性及开展其水环境的保护修复工作的必要性。
Chao Lake which got its name for its shape being like bird's nest is located in the middle of Anhui Province . It is known as one of China's five major freshwater lakes together with Dongting Lake, Poyang Lake, Tai Lake and Hongzhe Lake.
In recent years, the water quality of Chao Lake deteriorates and the eutrophication becomes very serious because of the aggravation of the pollution of its surrounding area.This paper builds the model of comprehensive evaluation according to the monitoring data of water quality from year 2006 to 2007 of Chao Lake and the fuzzy mathematical theory .It shows the main contaminations of the river are NH3-N and TP,which is almost identical to the monitoring result.
Therefore ,we must control pollution in the drainage area to prevent the worsening of eutrophication at the present time.
On water quality forecast, this dissertation builds the Grey Model according to the grey mathematical theory. By choosing the data monitored from the Nanfei River from janurary to octorber in 2007,the Grey Model(GM) is used to simulate and predict such water quality parameter as DO、chl_a、NH3-N、CODMn of Chao Lake in November and December , and then the precision of the model is analyzed by adopting parameter identification. In the dissertation, the chosen monitoring data of the water quality is not complete and the prediction result is directly influenced because of the wide fluctuation of the sample data.
Through the current contamination of Chao Lake and the overview of the water quality, this dissertation provides a reliable theory foundation for the designer, the administrator and the policy-maker. And by showing the tendency analysis of water quality with the grey prediction model, it also calls people to fully understand the seriousness of the deterioration of the water quality of the Chao Lake and the necessity of water conservation.
近年来湖泊周边污染加剧,水质严重下降,富营养化现象比较严重。本文根据巢湖2006~2007年的水质监测资料,利用模糊数学评价方法,建立巢湖水环境质量综合评价模型。评价结果表明巢湖湖体的主要污染物为氨氮和总磷,运用此方法得出的评价结果与实际监测结果基本一致。现阶段必须对流域内的污染进行有效控制,防止富营养化的加剧和恶化。
在水质预测方面本文根据灰色数学理论,建立了灰色预测模型。选取南淝河入湖区2007年1至10月的监测数据,利用该模型对DO、chl_a、NH3-N、CODMn等水质指标在11月和12月期间的水质进行了模拟预测,并采用后验差法对模型进行精度分析。在论文中由于选取的水质监测数据还不够完整,直接影响预测结果;当水质指标的样本数据变化波动较大时,模型的精度和预测精度都较差。
通过巢湖污染现状,对水质有一个总体把握,为巢湖环境规划、环境管理及决策者提供一个可靠的科学理论依据。用灰色预测模型预测水质的变化趋势,使人们充分认识到巢湖水质恶化问题的严峻性及开展其水环境的保护修复工作的必要性。
Chao Lake which got its name for its shape being like bird's nest is located in the middle of Anhui Province . It is known as one of China's five major freshwater lakes together with Dongting Lake, Poyang Lake, Tai Lake and Hongzhe Lake.
In recent years, the water quality of Chao Lake deteriorates and the eutrophication becomes very serious because of the aggravation of the pollution of its surrounding area.This paper builds the model of comprehensive evaluation according to the monitoring data of water quality from year 2006 to 2007 of Chao Lake and the fuzzy mathematical theory .It shows the main contaminations of the river are NH3-N and TP,which is almost identical to the monitoring result.
Therefore ,we must control pollution in the drainage area to prevent the worsening of eutrophication at the present time.
On water quality forecast, this dissertation builds the Grey Model according to the grey mathematical theory. By choosing the data monitored from the Nanfei River from janurary to octorber in 2007,the Grey Model(GM) is used to simulate and predict such water quality parameter as DO、chl_a、NH3-N、CODMn of Chao Lake in November and December , and then the precision of the model is analyzed by adopting parameter identification. In the dissertation, the chosen monitoring data of the water quality is not complete and the prediction result is directly influenced because of the wide fluctuation of the sample data.
Through the current contamination of Chao Lake and the overview of the water quality, this dissertation provides a reliable theory foundation for the designer, the administrator and the policy-maker. And by showing the tendency analysis of water quality with the grey prediction model, it also calls people to fully understand the seriousness of the deterioration of the water quality of the Chao Lake and the necessity of water conservation.
引文
[1]钱易,唐孝炎等主编.环境保护与可持续发展[M].北京:高等教育出版社, 2000
[2]王建华,江东等.中国水环境态势与方略[J].农业环境与发展, 1999 1999,16(1):8-12
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[5]胡春双,金鑫家,杨春生.穆棱河水监测与评价[J].黑龙江水专学报, 2003,30(3):33-34
[6]刘康兰,袁浩.模糊综合评判在环境质量评价中的应用[J].环境工程, 2000,(1): 55-56,36
[7] Daniel L.Tufford, Hank N.McKellar.Spatial and temporal hydrodynamic and water quality modeling analysis of a large reservoir on the South Carolina(USA) coastal plain[J]. Ecological Modelling.1999:137-173
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[9]曹晓静,张航.地表水质模型研究综述[J].水利与建筑工程学报, 2006,4(4):18-21
[10]侯得印.鄱阳湖水环境质量评价与水质预测模型的研究[D].南昌大学硕士学位论文, 2007.
[11]王素娜.曹娥江支流水质评价与河流水环境容量分析[D].浙江大学硕士学位论文,2005
[12]杨娜.模糊数学在焦作市地下水水质现状评价中的应用[D].河南理工大学硕士学位论文, 2005
[13]梁宵.神经网络在巢湖水质评价预测中的应用[D].合肥工业大学硕士学位论文, 2007
[14]曹艳龙,汪西莉等.基于BP神经网络和渭河水质评价方法[J].计算机工程与设计, 2008,29(22):10-16
[15]万金保,侯得印.水质模糊综合评价模型的建立与应用[J].中国给水排水,2006,22(20):101-104
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[17]凌敏华,左其亭.水质评价的模糊数学方法及其应用[J].人民黄河, 2006,28(1):34-36
[18]杨纶标,高英仪.模糊数学原理及应用[M].广州:华南理工大学出版社, 2002,69-81
[19]张洵,李文.模糊数学在水质评价中的应用[J].吉林水利, 2006,(5):10-11
[20] LRN资源网.巢湖生物资源概况[EB/OL]. http://www.lrn.cn /basicdata/ressituation/elsesituation/200606/t20060626_108702.htm. 2006.06.26
[21]安徽省环保局.巢湖流域水污染防治“十五”计划[EB/OL], http://hzs.ndrc.gov.cn/wrfz/fzgh/t20050711_32350.htm.2002
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[23] GB3838-2002.地表水环境质量标准[S].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2002.
[24]栀子与邦德.巢湖流域生态建设、水污染防治状况调查[EB/OL]. http://tieba.baidu.com/f?kz=144824181, 2006.11.
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[27]中国环保网. 2005年安徽省环境状况公报[EB/OL]. http://www. chinaenvironment.com, 2006.6.2
[28]彭文启,张祥伟.现代水环境质量评价理论与方法[M].化学工业出版社, 2005
[29]毛兴华.常用水质评价方法的选择[J].水科学与工程技术, 2006 (1):21-23
[30]丁艳华,杨俊.模糊数学在水环境评价中的应用[J].能源与环境,2008,(1) :7-8
[31]曾永,樊引琴等.水质模糊综合评价法与单因子指数评价法比较[J].人民与黄河.2007,29(2):45,65
[32]杨文东.武汉市大气环境质量评价模糊数学模型的研究—模糊综合评判法的研究[D].武汉理工大学硕士论文, 2002
[33]彭泽洲等.水环境数学模型及其应用[M].化学工业出版社, 2007
[34]王云龙.天津近岸海域水体富营养化评价[D].天津师范大学硕士学位论文, 2006
[35]秦伯强.长江中下游浅水湖泊富营养化发生机制与控制途径初探[J].湖泊科学, 2002,14(3):192-201
[36]Li-Chang Hsu. Applying the Grey Prediction Model to the Global Integrated Circuit Industry. Technological Forecasting and Social Change[J], 2003,70(6):563-574
[37]刘玉敬,阎晨光,索秀云,王群. GM(1,1)模型在长江水质预测中的应用[J].河北科技大学学报, 2006,27(2):129-132
[38]黄廷林,卢金锁,韩宏大,何文杰,阴沛军.地表水源水质预测方法研究[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版), 2004, 36(2):134-137
[39]王海云等.改进GM(1,1)模型在两坝间水质预测中的应用[J].人民长江, 2008,39(11):39-42
[2]王建华,江东等.中国水环境态势与方略[J].农业环境与发展, 1999 1999,16(1):8-12
[3]蔡少炼.污染物对海洋生态环境的影响[J].中国水产, 2005.2:22-24
[4]窦贻俭,李春华.环境科学原理[M].南京:南京大学出版社, 2000
[5]胡春双,金鑫家,杨春生.穆棱河水监测与评价[J].黑龙江水专学报, 2003,30(3):33-34
[6]刘康兰,袁浩.模糊综合评判在环境质量评价中的应用[J].环境工程, 2000,(1): 55-56,36
[7] Daniel L.Tufford, Hank N.McKellar.Spatial and temporal hydrodynamic and water quality modeling analysis of a large reservoir on the South Carolina(USA) coastal plain[J]. Ecological Modelling.1999:137-173
[8]汤梦玲,谢可翔.水质评价模型选择综合分析与探讨[J].资源调查与环境, 2005,26(3):221-227
[9]曹晓静,张航.地表水质模型研究综述[J].水利与建筑工程学报, 2006,4(4):18-21
[10]侯得印.鄱阳湖水环境质量评价与水质预测模型的研究[D].南昌大学硕士学位论文, 2007.
[11]王素娜.曹娥江支流水质评价与河流水环境容量分析[D].浙江大学硕士学位论文,2005
[12]杨娜.模糊数学在焦作市地下水水质现状评价中的应用[D].河南理工大学硕士学位论文, 2005
[13]梁宵.神经网络在巢湖水质评价预测中的应用[D].合肥工业大学硕士学位论文, 2007
[14]曹艳龙,汪西莉等.基于BP神经网络和渭河水质评价方法[J].计算机工程与设计, 2008,29(22):10-16
[15]万金保,侯得印.水质模糊综合评价模型的建立与应用[J].中国给水排水,2006,22(20):101-104
[16]余秋梅,印士勇,周良伟.巢湖水环境质量现状分析[J].人民长江学报,2001,(7):29-30
[17]凌敏华,左其亭.水质评价的模糊数学方法及其应用[J].人民黄河, 2006,28(1):34-36
[18]杨纶标,高英仪.模糊数学原理及应用[M].广州:华南理工大学出版社, 2002,69-81
[19]张洵,李文.模糊数学在水质评价中的应用[J].吉林水利, 2006,(5):10-11
[20] LRN资源网.巢湖生物资源概况[EB/OL]. http://www.lrn.cn /basicdata/ressituation/elsesituation/200606/t20060626_108702.htm. 2006.06.26
[21]安徽省环保局.巢湖流域水污染防治“十五”计划[EB/OL], http://hzs.ndrc.gov.cn/wrfz/fzgh/t20050711_32350.htm.2002
[22]安徽省环保局.巢湖流域水污染防治“十一五”规划[EB/OL]. http://www.docin.com/p-9928692.html.2009.10
[23] GB3838-2002.地表水环境质量标准[S].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2002.
[24]栀子与邦德.巢湖流域生态建设、水污染防治状况调查[EB/OL]. http://tieba.baidu.com/f?kz=144824181, 2006.11.
[25]中国环保网. 2003年安徽省环境状况公报[EB/OL]. http://www. chinaenvironment.com,2004.11.2
[26]中国环保网. 2004年安徽省环境状况公报[EB/OL]. http://www. chinaenvironment.com, 2005.6.6
[27]中国环保网. 2005年安徽省环境状况公报[EB/OL]. http://www. chinaenvironment.com, 2006.6.2
[28]彭文启,张祥伟.现代水环境质量评价理论与方法[M].化学工业出版社, 2005
[29]毛兴华.常用水质评价方法的选择[J].水科学与工程技术, 2006 (1):21-23
[30]丁艳华,杨俊.模糊数学在水环境评价中的应用[J].能源与环境,2008,(1) :7-8
[31]曾永,樊引琴等.水质模糊综合评价法与单因子指数评价法比较[J].人民与黄河.2007,29(2):45,65
[32]杨文东.武汉市大气环境质量评价模糊数学模型的研究—模糊综合评判法的研究[D].武汉理工大学硕士论文, 2002
[33]彭泽洲等.水环境数学模型及其应用[M].化学工业出版社, 2007
[34]王云龙.天津近岸海域水体富营养化评价[D].天津师范大学硕士学位论文, 2006
[35]秦伯强.长江中下游浅水湖泊富营养化发生机制与控制途径初探[J].湖泊科学, 2002,14(3):192-201
[36]Li-Chang Hsu. Applying the Grey Prediction Model to the Global Integrated Circuit Industry. Technological Forecasting and Social Change[J], 2003,70(6):563-574
[37]刘玉敬,阎晨光,索秀云,王群. GM(1,1)模型在长江水质预测中的应用[J].河北科技大学学报, 2006,27(2):129-132
[38]黄廷林,卢金锁,韩宏大,何文杰,阴沛军.地表水源水质预测方法研究[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版), 2004, 36(2):134-137
[39]王海云等.改进GM(1,1)模型在两坝间水质预测中的应用[J].人民长江, 2008,39(11):39-42
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