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海湾围填海规划评价体系研究
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摘要
随着沿海地区经济的快速发展和人口增长压力的不断增大,对土地的需求非常迫切,围垦造地成为解决沿海耕地资源贫乏的重要途径。然而,围填海在带来巨大社会经济效益的同时,也对周边海洋生态环境产生了诸多负面影响,因此需要对围填海活动进行科学的评价。
     以海湾围填海规划分析为基础,将评价时间界定为现状评价、回顾性评价和预测性评价,并基于海洋水动力、海洋化学、生态、资源、社会经济效益等五类指标,应用分层次筛选法与综合评价法,对围填海工况进行综合影响评价,确定围填海方案的适宜性。从而提出了一套较为完备的海湾围填海规划评价体系。
     在充分理解各涉海规划的基础上,分析各种规划内容及规划之间用海需求的协调性和矛盾冲突,依据优势资源优先与统筹兼顾、重点突出相结合原则。提出了围填海工况设计的基本思路、原则与工作方法。
     在科学方法上,采用潮流、泥沙、水交换、水质模型等数值模拟方法与环境容量、生物生态、海洋资源、社会经济分析等学科方法进行集成应用的技术手段,探讨了海湾围填海规划方案的实施对海湾水动力、海洋化学、海洋生态、海洋资源及社会经济效益等方面的影响。在分学科研究评价的基础上,采用分层次筛选法和综合分析法对围填海规划方案进行定量评价和优选,以获得各海湾围填海最佳评价方案。
     构建了海湾围填海数据开放式共享平台,将观测资料和模拟结果通过该平台进行集成化,并可通过观测数据和模拟不断更新平台,使其成为海湾围填海评价的重要组成部分,丰富了海湾围填海评价这一科学评价体系。
     将该体系应用于罗源湾,通过海洋数值模型并结合生物生态方面的综合研究,科学评价了围填海活动对海湾累积影响效应,并进行了定量和半定量的科学评估,为海湾围填海规划以及开发利用方向提供了科学依据。
With the rapid development of economy and the increasing pressure of population growth in coastal areas, the requirements for land become more and more imperative. So the reclamation has become an important means to alleviate the scarcity of coastal arable land resource, which not only brings tremendous social and economic benefits, but also causes many negative influences on the surrounding marine environment. Thus it is necessary to evaluate the reclamation comprehensively and scientifically.
     Based on the analysis of reclamation planning in bays, the evaluation time is defined as the status quo assessment, the retrospective assessment and the predictive assessment. And on the basis of five indicators, including marine hydrodynamics, marine chemistry, ecology, resources, social and economic benefits, this thesis adopts the sub-levels screening method and comprehensive evaluation method to conduct the impact assessment for the reclamation condition, and determine the suitability of reclamation program. Sequentially, a more comprehensive assessment system for the reclamation planning in bays is proposed.
     Based on the full understanding of all sea-related planning, the coordination and conflicts of sea requirements among all kinds of planning contents and planning are analyzed. According to the principle of giving priority to advantageous resource, and making overall consideration and key priority, the basic ideas, principles and working methods of the reclamation condition design are proposed.
     For the scientific methods, this thesis adopts integrated technical means of numerical simulation methods including tide, sediment, water exchange and water quality models, and interdisciplinary methods including environmental capacity, bio-ecology, marine resources and socio-economic analysis, to explore the impact of reclamation planning implementation on hydrodynamics, marine chemistry, marine ecology, marine resources and socio-economic benefits in bays. On the basis of sub-disciplinary research, in order to obtain the best assessment program of the reclamation planning, the sub-levels screening method and comprehensive evaluation method are used to conduct quantitative evaluation and optimization
     Additionally, an opening easy-accessing platform was build for sharing the reclamation data of bays, which integrates the observation and model simulation together. Based on the opening platform with continuing updated observation and model data, it becomes an import part of reclamation planning in bays, and enriches the scientific evaluation system of reclamation planning.
     The system is applied to the Luoyuan Bay in Fujian province. Through the ocean numerical model and combination of bio-ecological research, this thesis scientifically evaluates the cumulative effect of reclamation activities in bays, conducts quantitative and semi-quantitative scientific assessment, and provides the scientific basis for the reclamation planning, and direction of development and utilization in bays.
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