基于泛协同结构的核电投资的区域发展预测与评估研究
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摘要
经过长期对经济空间中经济活动路径的理论研究与应用实践,结合核电项目投资大周期长,技术安全要求高与区位选择苛刻的特点,研读了有关经济数学、空间与区域经济学、经济与负荷预测及评价方法等相关学术资料与前沿研究成果。正值国家颁布了《核电中长期发展规划》与《核电安全规划》之际,提出并完成了本文。本文给出了区别以往电力行业预测的研究方法与实践。在构建网络空间经济学理论体系基础上,基于泛协同结构各分支特点,对应运用最优组合预测方法对本课题进行了预测研究,同时进行了风险管理、社会与经济效益的综合评估。本课题研究为核电项目投资的前期可行性分析、经济区位抉择与推动项目区域综合发展给出实际可参考的研究方法与衡量标准。
本文提出广义关系概念,据此又提出了广义关系知识库并进行等价类分划分析；构建了九大经济要素指标体系并提出了区域与非区域性经济要素定义,提出与论证了网络空间经济学与泛协同结构理论并贯穿本文应用研究分析；基于扩展定义的广义经济效用函数,定义了广义非线性经济动力控制系统、(非)区域经济动力与经济增长动量并进行基于复杂组合网络聚集经济中心变化研究；提出与实践分析了远期经济效用与测度方法；基于上述研究结论与结合现有国家经济统计分类,给出广义关系经济流网络空间定义,提出了经济流网络的GDP＄、CIF与人口容积率等定义,构建了(最大)经济规模度模型,并基于上述内容进行了某省区域聚集经济规模发展研究分析；同时结合区域经济区位抉择论证了聚集经济综合专业区定位路径算法。
鉴于已有单一预测方法都有适合其应用分支的条件与预测效果的优劣,运用ANP决策方法提出基于泛协同结构的最优组合预测方法。结合上述理论与方法的研究分析,特别是经济规模度模型,进行了某省核电项目投资区域经济与电力规模发展预测；对泛协同结构的五大产业,基于广义关系知识库的九大经济要素指标体系,运用BP神经网络进行了五大产业发展预测分析,为后续该区域聚集经济规模度研究给予了支撑；使用动态模糊逻辑系统方法,扩展实施了广义关系知识库内远期经济效用测度的预测研究；依靠提出的基于广义关系知识库的智能深度关联搜索方法支撑,进行了基于因果关联数据挖掘的经济流网络分析研究；基于利用动态模糊层次分析方法对九大经济要素指标体系各影响因素的判定结论,运用模糊ANP网络层次分析方法经对该区域6个经济动力系统与5个经济发展模式的研究分析,确定该省现处于综合经济快速发展阶段；运用基于泛协同结构的最优组合预测方法,结合已分析的该省经济发展现状,对其进行了经济发展规模预测研究分析,同时也进行了广义电力负荷预测研究分析。
基于上述已研究结论与该省综合经济发展现状分析,协同其核电投资的市场环境、选择原则、风险问题及社会反应的综合分析,结合核电投资项目的特殊性与技术安全关键性,经综合研究分析构建了核电项目投资的风险管理、社会(环境)效益与经济效益3个指标体系；同时运用动态模糊AHP层次分析方法,分别进行了风险管理、社会效益与经济效益的3个综合评估研究分析。
This article was proceeding with the application practice research of economic activities' paths in economics spatial theory, combining with the large scale of investment and long cycle of the nuclear power project, demanding on its strictly location selection and high technical safety requirement. We have studied the economic mathematics, spatial and regional economics, economic and load forecasting, evaluation methods, relevant academic references and the latest research results. While the government implemented the long-term nuclear power development plan and nuclear safety plan, this research was put forward and completed. In this article, we showed the method to classify the previous electric power industry prediction. In the network spatial economy basic theory system, which was based on each branch characteristics of the general synergetic structure? We were corresponding to the optimal forecasting method applied in prediction researches of this project. During the same period, we was studying the comprehensive assessment of risk management, social and economic benefits. This article is a practical reference of research methods and measures. In order to study the prior period feasibility analysis of nuclear power investment, economic location choices and promoting to the regional overall development.
The conception of General constraint relation was given in this paper. After that, the process in equivalence class partition analysis was implemented. We setted up nine economic factors index system and the definition of regional and non-regional economy factors were given. The application research analysis of network spatial economy and general synergetic structure theory also were demonstrated in the paper. Based on the definition of general economic utility function extendedly, it was defined that the general nonlinear economy power control system, regional and non-regional economy power, economy growth momentum, and complex networks agglomeration economy center were changing the research. This research was the presentation and practice analysis of forward economic utilities and measures. On the above conclusions and corresponding to the national economic statistics classification existing, general constraint relation economic flows network space defining, and so the definition of GDP＄, CIF and population capacity ratio in economic flows network, it was proceeding that agglomeration economics scale development research on the (maximum) economics scale degree model, which was constructing in certain province. Meanwhile combining with the decision of regional economics location, it was demonstrated that the path locating algorithm of agglomeration economics comprehensive professional zone.
In view of the inappropriation of existing single prediction method for all branches and positive or negative prediction effects, applying ANP decision method can put forward the optimal combination prediction methods in general synergetic structure. With the above theories and methods analysis, especially the economics scale degree model, it was preceding the prediction of regional economics and electric power scale development of nuclear power project investment in the province. As for the five industries in general synergetic structure, basing on the nine economic factors index system in the foundation of general constraint relation knowledge, with the BP neural network, we could carry on the forecasting analysis in five industries development for follow-up to support. With dynamic fuzzy logic system, it was extendedly implement the prediction research of forward economic utility measure, which was supported by the general constraint relation knowledge. Depending on the intelligent depth correlation searching method in general constraint relation knowledge foundation, it was the proceeding of causal correlation data mining analysis in economic flow network. With the support of the judgment of dynamic fuzzy hierarchy analysis for important impacts on each of nine economic factors index system, and the fuzzy ANP method carrying on the research analysis of six regional power system and five economics development models in the province, it was demonstrated in a phase of comprehensive economics rapid development. Applying the optimal combination forecasting methods in general synergetic structure, on its economic development present situation, it carried on the development scale forecasting research of economics and general power load.
On the above research conclusion and analysis of its current development situation, the analysis of market environment, selection principles, risk problem and social response of nuclear power investment, these issues were combined with the particularity of nuclear power project and key technology security. It was comprehensively researched and analyzed to build the index systems of risk management, social benefit and economic benefit of the project. Consequently, applying with dynamic fuzzy AHP method, it was a respectively assessment of the risk management, social and economic benefits.
本文提出广义关系概念,据此又提出了广义关系知识库并进行等价类分划分析；构建了九大经济要素指标体系并提出了区域与非区域性经济要素定义,提出与论证了网络空间经济学与泛协同结构理论并贯穿本文应用研究分析；基于扩展定义的广义经济效用函数,定义了广义非线性经济动力控制系统、(非)区域经济动力与经济增长动量并进行基于复杂组合网络聚集经济中心变化研究；提出与实践分析了远期经济效用与测度方法；基于上述研究结论与结合现有国家经济统计分类,给出广义关系经济流网络空间定义,提出了经济流网络的GDP＄、CIF与人口容积率等定义,构建了(最大)经济规模度模型,并基于上述内容进行了某省区域聚集经济规模发展研究分析；同时结合区域经济区位抉择论证了聚集经济综合专业区定位路径算法。
鉴于已有单一预测方法都有适合其应用分支的条件与预测效果的优劣,运用ANP决策方法提出基于泛协同结构的最优组合预测方法。结合上述理论与方法的研究分析,特别是经济规模度模型,进行了某省核电项目投资区域经济与电力规模发展预测；对泛协同结构的五大产业,基于广义关系知识库的九大经济要素指标体系,运用BP神经网络进行了五大产业发展预测分析,为后续该区域聚集经济规模度研究给予了支撑；使用动态模糊逻辑系统方法,扩展实施了广义关系知识库内远期经济效用测度的预测研究；依靠提出的基于广义关系知识库的智能深度关联搜索方法支撑,进行了基于因果关联数据挖掘的经济流网络分析研究；基于利用动态模糊层次分析方法对九大经济要素指标体系各影响因素的判定结论,运用模糊ANP网络层次分析方法经对该区域6个经济动力系统与5个经济发展模式的研究分析,确定该省现处于综合经济快速发展阶段；运用基于泛协同结构的最优组合预测方法,结合已分析的该省经济发展现状,对其进行了经济发展规模预测研究分析,同时也进行了广义电力负荷预测研究分析。
基于上述已研究结论与该省综合经济发展现状分析,协同其核电投资的市场环境、选择原则、风险问题及社会反应的综合分析,结合核电投资项目的特殊性与技术安全关键性,经综合研究分析构建了核电项目投资的风险管理、社会(环境)效益与经济效益3个指标体系；同时运用动态模糊AHP层次分析方法,分别进行了风险管理、社会效益与经济效益的3个综合评估研究分析。
This article was proceeding with the application practice research of economic activities' paths in economics spatial theory, combining with the large scale of investment and long cycle of the nuclear power project, demanding on its strictly location selection and high technical safety requirement. We have studied the economic mathematics, spatial and regional economics, economic and load forecasting, evaluation methods, relevant academic references and the latest research results. While the government implemented the long-term nuclear power development plan and nuclear safety plan, this research was put forward and completed. In this article, we showed the method to classify the previous electric power industry prediction. In the network spatial economy basic theory system, which was based on each branch characteristics of the general synergetic structure? We were corresponding to the optimal forecasting method applied in prediction researches of this project. During the same period, we was studying the comprehensive assessment of risk management, social and economic benefits. This article is a practical reference of research methods and measures. In order to study the prior period feasibility analysis of nuclear power investment, economic location choices and promoting to the regional overall development.
The conception of General constraint relation was given in this paper. After that, the process in equivalence class partition analysis was implemented. We setted up nine economic factors index system and the definition of regional and non-regional economy factors were given. The application research analysis of network spatial economy and general synergetic structure theory also were demonstrated in the paper. Based on the definition of general economic utility function extendedly, it was defined that the general nonlinear economy power control system, regional and non-regional economy power, economy growth momentum, and complex networks agglomeration economy center were changing the research. This research was the presentation and practice analysis of forward economic utilities and measures. On the above conclusions and corresponding to the national economic statistics classification existing, general constraint relation economic flows network space defining, and so the definition of GDP＄, CIF and population capacity ratio in economic flows network, it was proceeding that agglomeration economics scale development research on the (maximum) economics scale degree model, which was constructing in certain province. Meanwhile combining with the decision of regional economics location, it was demonstrated that the path locating algorithm of agglomeration economics comprehensive professional zone.
In view of the inappropriation of existing single prediction method for all branches and positive or negative prediction effects, applying ANP decision method can put forward the optimal combination prediction methods in general synergetic structure. With the above theories and methods analysis, especially the economics scale degree model, it was preceding the prediction of regional economics and electric power scale development of nuclear power project investment in the province. As for the five industries in general synergetic structure, basing on the nine economic factors index system in the foundation of general constraint relation knowledge, with the BP neural network, we could carry on the forecasting analysis in five industries development for follow-up to support. With dynamic fuzzy logic system, it was extendedly implement the prediction research of forward economic utility measure, which was supported by the general constraint relation knowledge. Depending on the intelligent depth correlation searching method in general constraint relation knowledge foundation, it was the proceeding of causal correlation data mining analysis in economic flow network. With the support of the judgment of dynamic fuzzy hierarchy analysis for important impacts on each of nine economic factors index system, and the fuzzy ANP method carrying on the research analysis of six regional power system and five economics development models in the province, it was demonstrated in a phase of comprehensive economics rapid development. Applying the optimal combination forecasting methods in general synergetic structure, on its economic development present situation, it carried on the development scale forecasting research of economics and general power load.
On the above research conclusion and analysis of its current development situation, the analysis of market environment, selection principles, risk problem and social response of nuclear power investment, these issues were combined with the particularity of nuclear power project and key technology security. It was comprehensively researched and analyzed to build the index systems of risk management, social benefit and economic benefit of the project. Consequently, applying with dynamic fuzzy AHP method, it was a respectively assessment of the risk management, social and economic benefits.
引文
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