香港离岸人民币对境内货币政策的影响研究
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摘要
离岸金融市场,是指所使用货币既不受市场所在国政府法令管制,又不受发行国政府法令管制的金融市场,离岸金融市场同离岸货币所在国的国内金融体系以及该货币发行国境内市场相分离。离岸市场业务活动手续简便,效率高,低税或免税,很少受市场法规的管制,成为满足非居民本币或外币金融服务需求的主体。离岸货币则是离岸市场业务和离岸金融市场交易中所使用的货币。
历史经验表明,货币国际化进程中离岸货币以及离岸金融市场的存在起了很大的推动作用。一国货币在境外流通或成为国际货币之后,在国际市场交易以及国际贸易需求中自然而然就形成了该国际货币的离岸交易中心,如欧洲美元市场、欧洲日元市场等。但是,货币离岸交易中心的发展会增加发行国货币供给调控的难度,使中央银行保持货币政策的独立性和稳定性受到威胁和挑战。由于大量的本币在国外交易和流通,他们会通过跨境的离岸银行等机构实现资本的流出入,增加发行国央行对存量货币进行监测和统计的难度,从而对发行国的货币供给产生影响,扰乱该国的在岸市场货币政策的调控预期,使央行损失货币政策的独立性。此外,离岸金融机构的司法管辖权、成本收益结构以及监管要求和在岸金融机构均有所不同,离岸金融机构没有存款准备金的约束,离岸市场的信贷扩张可能会通过国际金融市场间的密切关联而影响在岸市场上的信贷规模,进而影响到—国的货币总量,这同样会使央行损失货币政策的独立性。
随着香港离岸人民币金融中心人民币规模的增长以及离岸市场结构的完善,离岸金融中心人民币交易活动的影响开始逐步扩大。离岸人民币交易及其跨境流通越来越引起我国货币当局、学界及世界金融界的广泛关注,因此,离岸人民币的流通和离岸人民币市场的建立对在岸人民币金融市场和我国中央银行货币政策调控的影响,就应该既从定性角度也从定量角度进行系统性的研究。
离岸货币的出现及离岸金融中心的建立是国际金融发展的重要组成部分。离岸人民币以及香港离岸人民币中心的快速发展,为国际离岸货币和离岸金融市场的发展开创了新形式,即政策推动的境外本币离岸金融市场。这与为满足市场需求而自发形成的境外本币离岸市场(如欧洲美元市场)、由政策推动而建立的境内本币离岸市场(如美国纽约的International Banking Facility欧洲美元市场；日本东京的欧洲日元市场),以及成员国通过区域货币合作形成的离岸市场(如欧洲欧元市场)相比都有着较大的差异。第一,虽然中国的GDP总量在2010年实现了对日本的正式超越,成为世界第二大经济体,但中国仍然是一个发展中国家。一个发展中国家的货币成为离岸货币,并在此基础上建立离岸金融市场,就与欧洲美元市场等有着明显区别。第二,离岸人民币和离岸人民币市场的建立是在中国资本账户仍未实现自由兑换,人民币还不是可自由兑换货币的背景下出现的,因此必然存在着独特的发展途径和模式。人民币跨境交易结算作为人民币国际化战略实现的第一步,将为发展中国家离岸货币及货币国际化发展树立典范,从理论上说,这是对离岸金融理论的发展。本文研究的重点是香港离岸人民币和离岸人民币市场对我国中央银行货币政策的影响。为此本文研究了境外人民币需求变动的影响因素、境外人民币跨境流通的路径、离岸人民币跨境流通对境内货币供给量的影响、离岸人民币市场通过利率途径对境内货币市场调控的影响、离岸人民币市场通过汇率途径对境内外汇市场调控的影响等。从这些视角对离岸人民币展开研究,有可能补充和发展离岸金融理论。
离岸人民币的研究还有更为重要的实践意义。首先从国内角度看,离岸人民币或将给我国境内金融经济带来比较深远的影响。离岸人民币市场发展与影响,可以使我国分享到国际铸币税收益,促进对外经济贸易关系的发展,有效缓解当前我国外汇储备过大的压力。同时,还有利于加快我国境内金融体制改革的步伐,为境内中央银行制定货币调控政策提供参考。如离岸人民币回流渠道的完善和开拓,可以为境内资本项目实现可自由兑换提供经验和借鉴；香港离岸人民币货币市场与外汇市场价格形成机制的市场化建设,可以促进和帮助境内人民币利率和汇率的市场化改革。其次从国际角度看,当前国际货币体系的弊端已经被各国清楚地认识到,尤其是近些年来数次经济金融危机给许多国家留下了惨痛的教训,改革国际货币体系的呼声日益高涨,需要国际货币体系向多元化的格局发展。离岸人民币及离岸人民币市场对我国境内金融经济的影响,离岸人民币币值稳定的经济背景、稳中有升的汇率以及良好的国际信誉,开始成为世界关注的焦点,加快和完善离岸人民币中心的建设,对于离岸人民币回流渠道的完善与拓展、离岸人民币投融资市场的建立、人民币资本项目开放的逐步实现、人民币外部循环体系的稳定与形成,对于人民币国际货币职能的实现具有重要的推动作用。
本文共分八章,结构安排如下：
第一章为导论。首先,对本文的选题背景和研究意义进行阐述；其次,对相关研究的文献综述进行梳理,对已有的国内外研究文献进行总结述评,以明确本文研究的方向；再次,阐述了本文的研究方法和结构安排。最后,对本文研究的创新点与不足之处及未来研究方向加以说明。
第二章主要分析了国际主要离岸货币和离岸人民币的出现及发展情况。首先,分析了欧洲美元(市场推动型离岸货币)的出现和发展及其演进和含义的深化；其次,分析了欧洲马克到欧洲欧元(区域货币合作型离岸货币)的新型欧洲货币形式的出现和发展；再次,分析了欧洲日元(政策推动型本土离岸货币)的出现与发展；最后对离岸人民币的出现与发展历程及产品创新、香港离岸人民币市场的构成进行了较全面的分析。通过对这几种世界主要离岸货币发展历程的介绍与比较分析,得出了离岸货币及货币国际化的普遍特点,即雄厚的经济实力、成功的制度安排、自由的贸易网络以及积极促进区域经济合作的发展,这对离岸人民币和人民币国际化战略具有借鉴和启示意义。
第三章对货币政策理论与实践进行了分析。首先,分析了货币政策理论,从数量政策和价格政策角度出发,分别介绍凯恩斯的货币理论与政策、弗里德曼为代表的货币主义者的货币理论与政策；其次,分析了离岸人民币分别与货币数量政策与价格政策执行之间的矛盾；再次,介绍了货币状况指数——MCI及其在我国的适应性；最后,分析了利率平价理论及其在离岸货币市场研究中的应用。
第四章对离岸人民币需求的影响因素进行了实证分析,得出结论：人民币汇率预期、离岸人民币替代率、境内外利差与离岸人民币需求之间存在稳定的长期均衡关系；当前人民币的离岸需求更多的表现为投机性需求。
第五章分析了离岸人民币及其跨境流通对境内货币供给量的影响。首先,从香港离岸人民币的货币市场、证券市场、外汇市场、外汇衍生品市场和保险市场等方面梳理人民币跨境流通路径；其次,分析了人民币跨境流通对境内货币供给量及货币政策的影响机理；最后,对人民币跨境流通对境内货币供给量的影响进行了实证分析。
第六章对离岸与在岸人民币同业拆借利率间的关联关系进行了实证分析。
第七章对离岸与在岸人民币汇率关联关系进行了实证分析。
第八章借鉴国际经验提出香港离岸人民币市场发展的对策建议。依据本文研究理论基础及研究结论,提出应对离岸人民币跨境流通和离岸人民币市场快速发展对境内货币政策的影响情况及影响程度的对策建议,即尽快建立两岸人民币流通的风险联动预警机制,实现货币政策的数量与价格多种政策目标的统—协调,尽快实现人民币利率、汇率的市场化改革,逐步健康稳妥的实现资本项目的自由兑换。
论文可能的创新点：
第一,从理论的角度,本文以货币政策理论、利率平价理论和货币替代理论为基础,并引入货币状况指数(MCI),综合考察了离岸货币及离岸货币市场对货币主权国的货币政策的关系,动态地分析了离岸货币与境内货币价格政策与货币数量政策的矛盾。
第二,从政策的角度,本文在区分欧洲美元、欧洲马克(欧洲欧元)和欧洲日元三种不同类型离岸货币的基础上,分析了离岸货币与货币国际化的关系,得出不同经济体和经济制度应该有不同的离岸货币与货币国际化的发展模式的结论,从而认为我国属于发展中国家,我国资本项目也还未实现完全可兑换,因此我国离岸人民币及人民币国际化应该有自己的特点,即借助特定地区(香港、新加坡、伦敦、台湾和澳大利亚)建立离岸人民币市场,实现逐步的人民币国际化之路。
第三,从实证研究的角度,本文系统地对离岸人民币需求的影响因素进行了分析,得出离岸人民币需求更多的表现为投机性需求的结论；对离岸与在岸人民币货币市场同业拆借利率之间的关系进行了深入系统的分析,得出离岸与在岸同业拆息定价更多的表现为双向波动溢出效应的结论；将CNY、CNH、DF、NDF四个外汇市场的人民币汇率置于同—研究模型内,对离岸与在岸人民币汇率进行了深入系统的分析,得出四个外汇市场价格存在明显的联通机制、香港离岸人民币外汇市场已经表现出对境内即期外汇市场的价格引导关系的结论。
论文的不足之处：
由于作者对离岸人民币跨境结算交易实践认识有限,在对离岸人民币跨境流通对境内货币供给量的影响进行分析时,结论可能会比较片面。由于香港离岸人民币市场只公布了各银行同业拆息报价利率,本文使用各银行的报价利率平均值代表银行间同业拆息定价水平进行研究,得出的结论可能有失偏颇。同时,利率数据未考虑债券利率,研究所得结论可能不够全面。
The offshore financial markets, refers to the use of currency neither regulated by the market government nor the issued government, the offshore financial markets were separated with the country's financial system and the domestic currency country market. The offshore market activities simplicity, high efficiency, low-tax or tax-free, with little regulatory control by the market, becoming the currency to meet the non-resident or foreign financial service needs of the subject. Offshore currency is used by the offshore financial market transactions.
Historical experience shows that offshore currency and the existence of offshore financial markets played a great role in promoting currency internationalization process. After being international currency or circulating outside, the international currency offshore trading center come very naturally in the international transaction and international trade demanding, such as the Eurodollar market, the Euroyen market. However, the development of offshore currency trading center would make of currency supply regulation difficulty in the issuance country; make the central bank independence, the stability of monetary policy under threat and challenge. In addition, there were differences between the offshore financial institutions and the onshore on jurisdiction, cost and income structure and regulatory requirements, offshore financial institutions do not have reserve constraints, the offshore market credit expansion may impact on bank credit scale through close association of international financial markets, which affect the amount of money in one country, which will also make the central bank loss of the independence of monetary policy.
With the growth of the offshore RMB financial center in Hong Kong, the offshore RMB's trading activity gradually expanded. The offshore RMB's transactions and cross-border flow increasingly attracted China's monetary authorities, academia and the world financial community's attention, so the flow of the offshore RMB, the establish of the offshore RMB market, the impact of monetary policy to the onshore RMB financial markets and China's central bank, they should be systematic researched both from a qualitative but from a quantitative point of view.
Establishment of offshore currency and offshore financial center is an important part of international financial development. The rapid development of the offshore RMB and Hong Kong offshore RMB center, created a new form to the development of the offshore currency and offshore financial markets, which promoted foreign offshore financial markets by policies. There have greater differences compared with others, which appeared spontaneous of foreign currency offshore markets by meeting market demand (such as the Eurodollar market), domestic currency offshore markets established by the policy (such as the New York International Banking Facility Eurodollar market; Tokyo, Japan, Euroyen market), as well as member states, the offshore markets appeared through the regional monetary cooperation (such as the Euroeuro markets). First, while China's GDP achieve a formal surpass to Japan and become the world's second economy in2010, but China is still a developing country. There is a clear distinction that a developing country's currency developed as an offshore currency and on this basis to establish offshore financial markets. Second, the offshore RMB appeared and the offshore RMB market established in China, while our capital account is not freely convertible. So there must be a unique development paths and patterns. The RMB cross-border trade settlement as a first step to achieve international strategy, it will be an example for developing country with the development of offshore currency and currency internationalization, in theory, this is also the development of offshore financial theory. This paper focuses the impact of Hong Kong's offshore RMB and the offshore RMB market on PBC's monetary policy. So we studies the effects factors of changes in demand for the offshore RMB, the offshore RMB cross-border flow onto domestic money supply, impact of the offshore RMB market through domestic money market interest rate onto domestic monetary regulation, impact of the offshore RMB market through the exchange rate onto the domestic foreign exchange market regulation. The offshore RMB conduct research from these perspectives might complement and develop offshore financial theory.
Research on the offshore RMB is as well as a more important practical significance. First, from a domestic perspective, the offshore RMB will bring relatively far-reaching impact on our financial economy. The development of the offshore RMB market can make us obtain international seigniorage revenue, promote the development of foreign trade, effectively alleviate excessive pressure on our foreign exchange reserves, and help to accelerate our financial reform. The improvement and development of the offshore RMB back channel can provide experience with the free convertibility of capital projects; the market price formation mechanism of Hong Kong's offshore RMB money market and foreign exchange market can facilitate and help our interest rate and exchange rate market-oriented reforms. Second, from the international point of view, the drawbacks of the current international monetary system has been clearly recognized, especially in recent years, several economic and financial crisis has left many countries painful lesson, reform of the international monetary system is necessary. The stable economic background of the offshore RMB, steadily rates and good international reputation, making the RMB become the focus of world attention. It is more important for speeding up and improving the offshore RMB center's building, that the improvement and expansion of the offshore RMB back channel, the establishment of the offshore RMB investment and financing market, the RMB capital account opening gradually realize, external circulation system is stable, has an important role in promoting the RMB's internationalization.
This paper is divided into eight chapters, organized as follows:
The first chapter is an introduction. First, the background and significance of the research; Secondly, a literature review of relevant research were reviewed, in order to clear the direction of this paper; thirdly, describes the research methods and structure of this arrangement. Finally, the research innovation points deficiencies and future research direction is illustrated.
The second chapter analyzes the emergence and development of the major international offshore currency and the offshore RMB. First, the analysis of the Eurodollar (market-driven offshore currency) and the emergence and development of its evolution and meaning deepening; Secondly, the analysis of the Euromark to the Euroeuro (regional monetary cooperation based offshore currency) of the new Eurocurrency in the form of the emergence and development; again, the analysis of the Euroyen (policy-driven domestic offshore currency) the emergence and development; Finally, the emergence and development of the offshore RMB process and product innovation, and give a more comprehensive analysis of Hong Kong's offshore RMB market. Through the introduction and comparative analysis of these kinds of world major offshore currencies development process, we obtained the international offshore currency common features, strong economic strength, the success of institutional arrangements, free trade networks and actively promote the development of regional economic cooperation, which make the offshore RMB and the internationalization of the RMB strategy with reference and enlightenment.
The third chapter analyzes the theory and practice of monetary policy. Firstly, an analysis of monetary policy theory, starting from the number of policy and the price of policy, introduced monetary theory and policy of Freedman and Keynes; secondly, respectively analyzes the contradiction between the offshore RMB with the quantity of money policy and price policy implementation; thirdly, the monetary condition index-MCI and its adaptability in China; finally, analyzes the application of the interest rate parity theory and its research in the offshore market.
The fourth chapter factors impact on the demand of the offshore RMB by empirical analysis, draw the conclusion:the expected RMB exchange rate, offshore RMB substitution, interest margin between domestic and foreign interest rate, exist long-run equilibrium with offshore currency requirements; the current RMB Offshore demand played more for the speculative demand.
The fifth chapter analyzes the impact of the offshore RMB and the RMB cross-border circulation to our domestic money supply. First of all, from the offshore RMB currency market, stock market, foreign exchange market, foreign exchange derivatives market and insurance market survey of RMB cross-border circulation path in Hong Kong; secondly, analyzed the mechanism of the RMB cross-border circulation effect on the domestic money supply and monetary policy; finally, makes an empirical analysis on the influence of the RMB cross-border circulation on the domestic money supply.
The sixth chapter makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between the offshore and the onshore RMB interbank interest rates.
The seventh chapter discusses the offshore and the onshore RMB exchange rate relationship.
The eighth chapter puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions of Hong Kong's offshore RMB market development of international experience. Conclusion on the basis of the study on the theoretical basis and the researches, proposed response to the rapid development of offshore RMB cross-border circulation, the offshore RMB market impact on domestic monetary policy, the influence degree of countermeasures, which establishing risk early warning mechanism of the RMB circulation cross linkage, monetary policy play a variety of coordination with the quantity and price policy, market reform of the RMB interest rate, the RMB exchange rate as soon as possible, gradually health and realization of capital account convertibility.
Thesis possible innovation:
First, from the theoretical point of view, this paper is based on the theory of monetary policy, interest rate parity theory and the theory of currency substitution, and the introduction of monetary condition index (MCI), relationships between the offshore currency and the offshore currency market on the monetary sovereignty country's monetary policy, the dynamic analysis of the contradiction between offshore currency with the domestic currency price policy and the quantity of monetary policy.
Second, from a policy perspective, the distinction in the Eurodollar, the Euromark (Euroeuro) and the euro yen three different types of offshore currency, to analyze the relationship between offshore currency and monetary internationalization, obtains the conclusion that the different economies and economic system should be the development of models have different offshore currency and monetary internationalization, for China is a developing country, capital account is not fully convertible in China, so the offshore RMB and the internationalization of the RMB should have its own characteristics, by means of specific regions (Hong Kong, Singapore, London, Taiwan and Australia) to establish the offshore RMB market, then achieve a gradual internationalization of the RMB.
Third, from the perspective of empirical research, this paper systematically analyzed the influence on the RMB demand factors, draw the conclusion the offshore RMB demand played more performance for the speculative demand; on the relationship between the offshore and the onshore RMB interbank money market rates for the thorough analysis of the system, the offshore and the onshore interbank pricing more performance for the two-way volatility spillover effect; put four of the RMB foreign exchange rate (CNY, CNH, DF and NDF) in the same model, they were analyzed systematically on the offshore and the onshore RMB exchange rate, the four foreign exchange market price mechanism, it were obvious unicorn mechanism among them, the offshore RMB foreign exchange market in Hong Kong has shown a leading role on spot foreign exchange market price.
Thesis shortcomings:
Due to the limited knowledge of the offshore RMB settlement of cross-border trade practice, in the analysis of the effect of offshore RMB cross-border circulation on the domestic money supply, the conclusion may be relatively one-sided. Because of the offshore RMB market in Hong Kong announced the interbank offer rate; this paper use the bank offered rates average value of research on behalf of interbank lending rates price level, the conclusion may be biased. At the same time, interest rates did not consider the bond rate data, conclusions may not be comprehensive.
历史经验表明,货币国际化进程中离岸货币以及离岸金融市场的存在起了很大的推动作用。一国货币在境外流通或成为国际货币之后,在国际市场交易以及国际贸易需求中自然而然就形成了该国际货币的离岸交易中心,如欧洲美元市场、欧洲日元市场等。但是,货币离岸交易中心的发展会增加发行国货币供给调控的难度,使中央银行保持货币政策的独立性和稳定性受到威胁和挑战。由于大量的本币在国外交易和流通,他们会通过跨境的离岸银行等机构实现资本的流出入,增加发行国央行对存量货币进行监测和统计的难度,从而对发行国的货币供给产生影响,扰乱该国的在岸市场货币政策的调控预期,使央行损失货币政策的独立性。此外,离岸金融机构的司法管辖权、成本收益结构以及监管要求和在岸金融机构均有所不同,离岸金融机构没有存款准备金的约束,离岸市场的信贷扩张可能会通过国际金融市场间的密切关联而影响在岸市场上的信贷规模,进而影响到—国的货币总量,这同样会使央行损失货币政策的独立性。
随着香港离岸人民币金融中心人民币规模的增长以及离岸市场结构的完善,离岸金融中心人民币交易活动的影响开始逐步扩大。离岸人民币交易及其跨境流通越来越引起我国货币当局、学界及世界金融界的广泛关注,因此,离岸人民币的流通和离岸人民币市场的建立对在岸人民币金融市场和我国中央银行货币政策调控的影响,就应该既从定性角度也从定量角度进行系统性的研究。
离岸货币的出现及离岸金融中心的建立是国际金融发展的重要组成部分。离岸人民币以及香港离岸人民币中心的快速发展,为国际离岸货币和离岸金融市场的发展开创了新形式,即政策推动的境外本币离岸金融市场。这与为满足市场需求而自发形成的境外本币离岸市场(如欧洲美元市场)、由政策推动而建立的境内本币离岸市场(如美国纽约的International Banking Facility欧洲美元市场；日本东京的欧洲日元市场),以及成员国通过区域货币合作形成的离岸市场(如欧洲欧元市场)相比都有着较大的差异。第一,虽然中国的GDP总量在2010年实现了对日本的正式超越,成为世界第二大经济体,但中国仍然是一个发展中国家。一个发展中国家的货币成为离岸货币,并在此基础上建立离岸金融市场,就与欧洲美元市场等有着明显区别。第二,离岸人民币和离岸人民币市场的建立是在中国资本账户仍未实现自由兑换,人民币还不是可自由兑换货币的背景下出现的,因此必然存在着独特的发展途径和模式。人民币跨境交易结算作为人民币国际化战略实现的第一步,将为发展中国家离岸货币及货币国际化发展树立典范,从理论上说,这是对离岸金融理论的发展。本文研究的重点是香港离岸人民币和离岸人民币市场对我国中央银行货币政策的影响。为此本文研究了境外人民币需求变动的影响因素、境外人民币跨境流通的路径、离岸人民币跨境流通对境内货币供给量的影响、离岸人民币市场通过利率途径对境内货币市场调控的影响、离岸人民币市场通过汇率途径对境内外汇市场调控的影响等。从这些视角对离岸人民币展开研究,有可能补充和发展离岸金融理论。
离岸人民币的研究还有更为重要的实践意义。首先从国内角度看,离岸人民币或将给我国境内金融经济带来比较深远的影响。离岸人民币市场发展与影响,可以使我国分享到国际铸币税收益,促进对外经济贸易关系的发展,有效缓解当前我国外汇储备过大的压力。同时,还有利于加快我国境内金融体制改革的步伐,为境内中央银行制定货币调控政策提供参考。如离岸人民币回流渠道的完善和开拓,可以为境内资本项目实现可自由兑换提供经验和借鉴；香港离岸人民币货币市场与外汇市场价格形成机制的市场化建设,可以促进和帮助境内人民币利率和汇率的市场化改革。其次从国际角度看,当前国际货币体系的弊端已经被各国清楚地认识到,尤其是近些年来数次经济金融危机给许多国家留下了惨痛的教训,改革国际货币体系的呼声日益高涨,需要国际货币体系向多元化的格局发展。离岸人民币及离岸人民币市场对我国境内金融经济的影响,离岸人民币币值稳定的经济背景、稳中有升的汇率以及良好的国际信誉,开始成为世界关注的焦点,加快和完善离岸人民币中心的建设,对于离岸人民币回流渠道的完善与拓展、离岸人民币投融资市场的建立、人民币资本项目开放的逐步实现、人民币外部循环体系的稳定与形成,对于人民币国际货币职能的实现具有重要的推动作用。
本文共分八章,结构安排如下：
第一章为导论。首先,对本文的选题背景和研究意义进行阐述；其次,对相关研究的文献综述进行梳理,对已有的国内外研究文献进行总结述评,以明确本文研究的方向；再次,阐述了本文的研究方法和结构安排。最后,对本文研究的创新点与不足之处及未来研究方向加以说明。
第二章主要分析了国际主要离岸货币和离岸人民币的出现及发展情况。首先,分析了欧洲美元(市场推动型离岸货币)的出现和发展及其演进和含义的深化；其次,分析了欧洲马克到欧洲欧元(区域货币合作型离岸货币)的新型欧洲货币形式的出现和发展；再次,分析了欧洲日元(政策推动型本土离岸货币)的出现与发展；最后对离岸人民币的出现与发展历程及产品创新、香港离岸人民币市场的构成进行了较全面的分析。通过对这几种世界主要离岸货币发展历程的介绍与比较分析,得出了离岸货币及货币国际化的普遍特点,即雄厚的经济实力、成功的制度安排、自由的贸易网络以及积极促进区域经济合作的发展,这对离岸人民币和人民币国际化战略具有借鉴和启示意义。
第三章对货币政策理论与实践进行了分析。首先,分析了货币政策理论,从数量政策和价格政策角度出发,分别介绍凯恩斯的货币理论与政策、弗里德曼为代表的货币主义者的货币理论与政策；其次,分析了离岸人民币分别与货币数量政策与价格政策执行之间的矛盾；再次,介绍了货币状况指数——MCI及其在我国的适应性；最后,分析了利率平价理论及其在离岸货币市场研究中的应用。
第四章对离岸人民币需求的影响因素进行了实证分析,得出结论：人民币汇率预期、离岸人民币替代率、境内外利差与离岸人民币需求之间存在稳定的长期均衡关系；当前人民币的离岸需求更多的表现为投机性需求。
第五章分析了离岸人民币及其跨境流通对境内货币供给量的影响。首先,从香港离岸人民币的货币市场、证券市场、外汇市场、外汇衍生品市场和保险市场等方面梳理人民币跨境流通路径；其次,分析了人民币跨境流通对境内货币供给量及货币政策的影响机理；最后,对人民币跨境流通对境内货币供给量的影响进行了实证分析。
第六章对离岸与在岸人民币同业拆借利率间的关联关系进行了实证分析。
第七章对离岸与在岸人民币汇率关联关系进行了实证分析。
第八章借鉴国际经验提出香港离岸人民币市场发展的对策建议。依据本文研究理论基础及研究结论,提出应对离岸人民币跨境流通和离岸人民币市场快速发展对境内货币政策的影响情况及影响程度的对策建议,即尽快建立两岸人民币流通的风险联动预警机制,实现货币政策的数量与价格多种政策目标的统—协调,尽快实现人民币利率、汇率的市场化改革,逐步健康稳妥的实现资本项目的自由兑换。
论文可能的创新点：
第一,从理论的角度,本文以货币政策理论、利率平价理论和货币替代理论为基础,并引入货币状况指数(MCI),综合考察了离岸货币及离岸货币市场对货币主权国的货币政策的关系,动态地分析了离岸货币与境内货币价格政策与货币数量政策的矛盾。
第二,从政策的角度,本文在区分欧洲美元、欧洲马克(欧洲欧元)和欧洲日元三种不同类型离岸货币的基础上,分析了离岸货币与货币国际化的关系,得出不同经济体和经济制度应该有不同的离岸货币与货币国际化的发展模式的结论,从而认为我国属于发展中国家,我国资本项目也还未实现完全可兑换,因此我国离岸人民币及人民币国际化应该有自己的特点,即借助特定地区(香港、新加坡、伦敦、台湾和澳大利亚)建立离岸人民币市场,实现逐步的人民币国际化之路。
第三,从实证研究的角度,本文系统地对离岸人民币需求的影响因素进行了分析,得出离岸人民币需求更多的表现为投机性需求的结论；对离岸与在岸人民币货币市场同业拆借利率之间的关系进行了深入系统的分析,得出离岸与在岸同业拆息定价更多的表现为双向波动溢出效应的结论；将CNY、CNH、DF、NDF四个外汇市场的人民币汇率置于同—研究模型内,对离岸与在岸人民币汇率进行了深入系统的分析,得出四个外汇市场价格存在明显的联通机制、香港离岸人民币外汇市场已经表现出对境内即期外汇市场的价格引导关系的结论。
论文的不足之处：
由于作者对离岸人民币跨境结算交易实践认识有限,在对离岸人民币跨境流通对境内货币供给量的影响进行分析时,结论可能会比较片面。由于香港离岸人民币市场只公布了各银行同业拆息报价利率,本文使用各银行的报价利率平均值代表银行间同业拆息定价水平进行研究,得出的结论可能有失偏颇。同时,利率数据未考虑债券利率,研究所得结论可能不够全面。
The offshore financial markets, refers to the use of currency neither regulated by the market government nor the issued government, the offshore financial markets were separated with the country's financial system and the domestic currency country market. The offshore market activities simplicity, high efficiency, low-tax or tax-free, with little regulatory control by the market, becoming the currency to meet the non-resident or foreign financial service needs of the subject. Offshore currency is used by the offshore financial market transactions.
Historical experience shows that offshore currency and the existence of offshore financial markets played a great role in promoting currency internationalization process. After being international currency or circulating outside, the international currency offshore trading center come very naturally in the international transaction and international trade demanding, such as the Eurodollar market, the Euroyen market. However, the development of offshore currency trading center would make of currency supply regulation difficulty in the issuance country; make the central bank independence, the stability of monetary policy under threat and challenge. In addition, there were differences between the offshore financial institutions and the onshore on jurisdiction, cost and income structure and regulatory requirements, offshore financial institutions do not have reserve constraints, the offshore market credit expansion may impact on bank credit scale through close association of international financial markets, which affect the amount of money in one country, which will also make the central bank loss of the independence of monetary policy.
With the growth of the offshore RMB financial center in Hong Kong, the offshore RMB's trading activity gradually expanded. The offshore RMB's transactions and cross-border flow increasingly attracted China's monetary authorities, academia and the world financial community's attention, so the flow of the offshore RMB, the establish of the offshore RMB market, the impact of monetary policy to the onshore RMB financial markets and China's central bank, they should be systematic researched both from a qualitative but from a quantitative point of view.
Establishment of offshore currency and offshore financial center is an important part of international financial development. The rapid development of the offshore RMB and Hong Kong offshore RMB center, created a new form to the development of the offshore currency and offshore financial markets, which promoted foreign offshore financial markets by policies. There have greater differences compared with others, which appeared spontaneous of foreign currency offshore markets by meeting market demand (such as the Eurodollar market), domestic currency offshore markets established by the policy (such as the New York International Banking Facility Eurodollar market; Tokyo, Japan, Euroyen market), as well as member states, the offshore markets appeared through the regional monetary cooperation (such as the Euroeuro markets). First, while China's GDP achieve a formal surpass to Japan and become the world's second economy in2010, but China is still a developing country. There is a clear distinction that a developing country's currency developed as an offshore currency and on this basis to establish offshore financial markets. Second, the offshore RMB appeared and the offshore RMB market established in China, while our capital account is not freely convertible. So there must be a unique development paths and patterns. The RMB cross-border trade settlement as a first step to achieve international strategy, it will be an example for developing country with the development of offshore currency and currency internationalization, in theory, this is also the development of offshore financial theory. This paper focuses the impact of Hong Kong's offshore RMB and the offshore RMB market on PBC's monetary policy. So we studies the effects factors of changes in demand for the offshore RMB, the offshore RMB cross-border flow onto domestic money supply, impact of the offshore RMB market through domestic money market interest rate onto domestic monetary regulation, impact of the offshore RMB market through the exchange rate onto the domestic foreign exchange market regulation. The offshore RMB conduct research from these perspectives might complement and develop offshore financial theory.
Research on the offshore RMB is as well as a more important practical significance. First, from a domestic perspective, the offshore RMB will bring relatively far-reaching impact on our financial economy. The development of the offshore RMB market can make us obtain international seigniorage revenue, promote the development of foreign trade, effectively alleviate excessive pressure on our foreign exchange reserves, and help to accelerate our financial reform. The improvement and development of the offshore RMB back channel can provide experience with the free convertibility of capital projects; the market price formation mechanism of Hong Kong's offshore RMB money market and foreign exchange market can facilitate and help our interest rate and exchange rate market-oriented reforms. Second, from the international point of view, the drawbacks of the current international monetary system has been clearly recognized, especially in recent years, several economic and financial crisis has left many countries painful lesson, reform of the international monetary system is necessary. The stable economic background of the offshore RMB, steadily rates and good international reputation, making the RMB become the focus of world attention. It is more important for speeding up and improving the offshore RMB center's building, that the improvement and expansion of the offshore RMB back channel, the establishment of the offshore RMB investment and financing market, the RMB capital account opening gradually realize, external circulation system is stable, has an important role in promoting the RMB's internationalization.
This paper is divided into eight chapters, organized as follows:
The first chapter is an introduction. First, the background and significance of the research; Secondly, a literature review of relevant research were reviewed, in order to clear the direction of this paper; thirdly, describes the research methods and structure of this arrangement. Finally, the research innovation points deficiencies and future research direction is illustrated.
The second chapter analyzes the emergence and development of the major international offshore currency and the offshore RMB. First, the analysis of the Eurodollar (market-driven offshore currency) and the emergence and development of its evolution and meaning deepening; Secondly, the analysis of the Euromark to the Euroeuro (regional monetary cooperation based offshore currency) of the new Eurocurrency in the form of the emergence and development; again, the analysis of the Euroyen (policy-driven domestic offshore currency) the emergence and development; Finally, the emergence and development of the offshore RMB process and product innovation, and give a more comprehensive analysis of Hong Kong's offshore RMB market. Through the introduction and comparative analysis of these kinds of world major offshore currencies development process, we obtained the international offshore currency common features, strong economic strength, the success of institutional arrangements, free trade networks and actively promote the development of regional economic cooperation, which make the offshore RMB and the internationalization of the RMB strategy with reference and enlightenment.
The third chapter analyzes the theory and practice of monetary policy. Firstly, an analysis of monetary policy theory, starting from the number of policy and the price of policy, introduced monetary theory and policy of Freedman and Keynes; secondly, respectively analyzes the contradiction between the offshore RMB with the quantity of money policy and price policy implementation; thirdly, the monetary condition index-MCI and its adaptability in China; finally, analyzes the application of the interest rate parity theory and its research in the offshore market.
The fourth chapter factors impact on the demand of the offshore RMB by empirical analysis, draw the conclusion:the expected RMB exchange rate, offshore RMB substitution, interest margin between domestic and foreign interest rate, exist long-run equilibrium with offshore currency requirements; the current RMB Offshore demand played more for the speculative demand.
The fifth chapter analyzes the impact of the offshore RMB and the RMB cross-border circulation to our domestic money supply. First of all, from the offshore RMB currency market, stock market, foreign exchange market, foreign exchange derivatives market and insurance market survey of RMB cross-border circulation path in Hong Kong; secondly, analyzed the mechanism of the RMB cross-border circulation effect on the domestic money supply and monetary policy; finally, makes an empirical analysis on the influence of the RMB cross-border circulation on the domestic money supply.
The sixth chapter makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between the offshore and the onshore RMB interbank interest rates.
The seventh chapter discusses the offshore and the onshore RMB exchange rate relationship.
The eighth chapter puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions of Hong Kong's offshore RMB market development of international experience. Conclusion on the basis of the study on the theoretical basis and the researches, proposed response to the rapid development of offshore RMB cross-border circulation, the offshore RMB market impact on domestic monetary policy, the influence degree of countermeasures, which establishing risk early warning mechanism of the RMB circulation cross linkage, monetary policy play a variety of coordination with the quantity and price policy, market reform of the RMB interest rate, the RMB exchange rate as soon as possible, gradually health and realization of capital account convertibility.
Thesis possible innovation:
First, from the theoretical point of view, this paper is based on the theory of monetary policy, interest rate parity theory and the theory of currency substitution, and the introduction of monetary condition index (MCI), relationships between the offshore currency and the offshore currency market on the monetary sovereignty country's monetary policy, the dynamic analysis of the contradiction between offshore currency with the domestic currency price policy and the quantity of monetary policy.
Second, from a policy perspective, the distinction in the Eurodollar, the Euromark (Euroeuro) and the euro yen three different types of offshore currency, to analyze the relationship between offshore currency and monetary internationalization, obtains the conclusion that the different economies and economic system should be the development of models have different offshore currency and monetary internationalization, for China is a developing country, capital account is not fully convertible in China, so the offshore RMB and the internationalization of the RMB should have its own characteristics, by means of specific regions (Hong Kong, Singapore, London, Taiwan and Australia) to establish the offshore RMB market, then achieve a gradual internationalization of the RMB.
Third, from the perspective of empirical research, this paper systematically analyzed the influence on the RMB demand factors, draw the conclusion the offshore RMB demand played more performance for the speculative demand; on the relationship between the offshore and the onshore RMB interbank money market rates for the thorough analysis of the system, the offshore and the onshore interbank pricing more performance for the two-way volatility spillover effect; put four of the RMB foreign exchange rate (CNY, CNH, DF and NDF) in the same model, they were analyzed systematically on the offshore and the onshore RMB exchange rate, the four foreign exchange market price mechanism, it were obvious unicorn mechanism among them, the offshore RMB foreign exchange market in Hong Kong has shown a leading role on spot foreign exchange market price.
Thesis shortcomings:
Due to the limited knowledge of the offshore RMB settlement of cross-border trade practice, in the analysis of the effect of offshore RMB cross-border circulation on the domestic money supply, the conclusion may be relatively one-sided. Because of the offshore RMB market in Hong Kong announced the interbank offer rate; this paper use the bank offered rates average value of research on behalf of interbank lending rates price level, the conclusion may be biased. At the same time, interest rates did not consider the bond rate data, conclusions may not be comprehensive.
引文
① 中国人民银行调查统计《2013年上半年金融统计数据报告》。http://www.pbc.gov.cn/publish/diaochatongjisi/
② 中国人民银行调查统计2013年6月统计数据,货币供应量表与金融机构人民币信贷收支表测算所得。
① 人民币现金跨境流动调查课题组,《2004年人民币现金跨境流动调查报告》,《中国金融》,2005年6月。
① BalbachAnatol B., Resler Dacid H.,1980. Eurodallars and the U.S. Money Supply, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review,62(6).
① 香港离岸人民币市场首笔交割的人民币IRS,于2010年10月22日由汇丰银行与德意志银行成交完成,该产品是基于SHIBOR利率的两年期品种。
① 人民币境外的NDF交易从1996年开始出现,主要市场为新加坡和中国香港。人民币NDF市场形成初期发展缓慢,2002年后,由于人民币升值压力的产生而迅速发展起来。
① 马骏,人民币离岸市场发展对境内货币和金融的影响[J],国际融资,2011.5,53-57页。
② 孟浩,香港人民币离岸市场对内地货币供应量的影响——基于状态空间模型的时变参数分析[J],吉林金融研究,2012.1,18--21页。
① 景学成,国际金融发展与中国金融改革[M],北京：中国金融出版社,2001年,129-134。
① 本文中的德国马克指1990年东、西德统一前的西德马克以及东、西德统一后的德国马克。
② 由德国六家银行组成卡特尔确定马克外国债券发行配额。
③ 刘谊等,国际货币体系非主流货币国际化对人民币国际化的启示——基于德国马克模式的思考,经济研究参考,2010年第22期。
① 数据来源：世界经济年鉴1950-1999年。
② 数据来源：IMF《国际金融统计》,1992年年报。
① 香港新闻公报,立法会15题：人民币利率及汇率市场化改革,2013年6月26日。
① McCandless G和 Weber W.,1995, "Some Monetary Facts", Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review,19(3), pp.2-11.
② Moroney,J.,2002, "Money Growth, Output Growth and Inflation:Estimation of a Modern Quantity Theory" Southern Economic Journal, Vol.69, No.2, pp.398-413.
③ Brumm H.,2005, "Money Growth, Output Growth and Inflation:a Reexamination of the Modern Quantity Theory's Linchpin Prediction", Southern Economic Journal,71(3), pp.661-667.
① 美联储曾规定,自1980年11月13日起,对所有欧洲美元负债,实行3%的存款准备金比率,加强了对欧洲美元交易的管理。
① V. K. Chetty,1969. "On Measuring the Nearness of Near Money", The American Economic Review. Jun., Vol.59, No.3,270-281.
① J.Taylor,1993, "Discretion Versus Policy Rules in Practice", Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, (39), pp.202.
① 李艳丽,货币政策的汇率目标比较：钉住汇率和汇率稳定[J].生产力研究,200903,56。
② “三元悖论”和浮动汇率制的基本理论逻辑：内外均衡之间的联系不断增强,特别是资本流动性的提高,货币政策无法同时兼顾两个目标,传统的货币政策目标和汇率政策目标发生冲突。作为权衡的结果.放弃汇率稳定性,把货币政策对准通货膨胀,放弃汇率政策,货币政策蜕变成为封闭经济中的狭义货币政策。
① 香港金管局官网www.hkma.gov.hk
② 上海银行间同业拆放利率网站www. shibor.org/shibor/web/html/
③ 全球利率网www.global-rates.com
④ 香港财资市场公会/www.tma.org.hk/en_market_info.aspx
① 数据来源：中国人民银行金融统计月报2012年11月。
① 数据来源：香港金管局统计数据人民币存款统计表,更新至2013年5月。
① 2012年1月3日至2012年3月30日仅有3家金融机构每天公布报价。8家银行分别为中国银行(香港)、交通银行、东亚银行、三菱东京UFJ银行、汇丰银行、中国工商银行(亚洲)、摩根大通银行、渣打银行。
② 上海银行间同业拆放利率网站www.shibor.org/shibor/web/html/
③ 香港财资市场公会www.tma.org.hk/en_market_info.aspx
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② 中国人民银行调查统计2013年6月统计数据,货币供应量表与金融机构人民币信贷收支表测算所得。
① 人民币现金跨境流动调查课题组,《2004年人民币现金跨境流动调查报告》,《中国金融》,2005年6月。
① BalbachAnatol B., Resler Dacid H.,1980. Eurodallars and the U.S. Money Supply, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review,62(6).
① 香港离岸人民币市场首笔交割的人民币IRS,于2010年10月22日由汇丰银行与德意志银行成交完成,该产品是基于SHIBOR利率的两年期品种。
① 人民币境外的NDF交易从1996年开始出现,主要市场为新加坡和中国香港。人民币NDF市场形成初期发展缓慢,2002年后,由于人民币升值压力的产生而迅速发展起来。
① 马骏,人民币离岸市场发展对境内货币和金融的影响[J],国际融资,2011.5,53-57页。
② 孟浩,香港人民币离岸市场对内地货币供应量的影响——基于状态空间模型的时变参数分析[J],吉林金融研究,2012.1,18--21页。
① 景学成,国际金融发展与中国金融改革[M],北京：中国金融出版社,2001年,129-134。
① 本文中的德国马克指1990年东、西德统一前的西德马克以及东、西德统一后的德国马克。
② 由德国六家银行组成卡特尔确定马克外国债券发行配额。
③ 刘谊等,国际货币体系非主流货币国际化对人民币国际化的启示——基于德国马克模式的思考,经济研究参考,2010年第22期。
① 数据来源：世界经济年鉴1950-1999年。
② 数据来源：IMF《国际金融统计》,1992年年报。
① 香港新闻公报,立法会15题：人民币利率及汇率市场化改革,2013年6月26日。
① McCandless G和 Weber W.,1995, "Some Monetary Facts", Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review,19(3), pp.2-11.
② Moroney,J.,2002, "Money Growth, Output Growth and Inflation:Estimation of a Modern Quantity Theory" Southern Economic Journal, Vol.69, No.2, pp.398-413.
③ Brumm H.,2005, "Money Growth, Output Growth and Inflation:a Reexamination of the Modern Quantity Theory's Linchpin Prediction", Southern Economic Journal,71(3), pp.661-667.
① 美联储曾规定,自1980年11月13日起,对所有欧洲美元负债,实行3%的存款准备金比率,加强了对欧洲美元交易的管理。
① V. K. Chetty,1969. "On Measuring the Nearness of Near Money", The American Economic Review. Jun., Vol.59, No.3,270-281.
① J.Taylor,1993, "Discretion Versus Policy Rules in Practice", Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, (39), pp.202.
① 李艳丽,货币政策的汇率目标比较：钉住汇率和汇率稳定[J].生产力研究,200903,56。
② “三元悖论”和浮动汇率制的基本理论逻辑：内外均衡之间的联系不断增强,特别是资本流动性的提高,货币政策无法同时兼顾两个目标,传统的货币政策目标和汇率政策目标发生冲突。作为权衡的结果.放弃汇率稳定性,把货币政策对准通货膨胀,放弃汇率政策,货币政策蜕变成为封闭经济中的狭义货币政策。
① 香港金管局官网www.hkma.gov.hk
② 上海银行间同业拆放利率网站www. shibor.org/shibor/web/html/
③ 全球利率网www.global-rates.com
④ 香港财资市场公会/www.tma.org.hk/en_market_info.aspx
① 数据来源：中国人民银行金融统计月报2012年11月。
① 数据来源：香港金管局统计数据人民币存款统计表,更新至2013年5月。
① 2012年1月3日至2012年3月30日仅有3家金融机构每天公布报价。8家银行分别为中国银行(香港)、交通银行、东亚银行、三菱东京UFJ银行、汇丰银行、中国工商银行(亚洲)、摩根大通银行、渣打银行。
② 上海银行间同业拆放利率网站www.shibor.org/shibor/web/html/
③ 香港财资市场公会www.tma.org.hk/en_market_info.aspx
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