信息通信技术非恒定影响标准扩散模型及其应用研究
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摘要
经济全球化、社会信息化、标准国际化是当今世界发展的潮流。20世纪后半叶,随着信息通信技术(Information and Communications Technology,简称ICT)在世界范围内的飞速发展,全球竞争环境正在发生深刻的变化。国际上以微软和英特尔为代表的ICT企业,利用领先的高新技术和强大信息网络优势,以模块化为基础,以技术标准和商业规则为核心,整合、控制全球资源,在国际竞争中获得优势。这种通过建立标准、利用标准扩散实现经济利益的“温特尔”(Wintel)生产方式,用传统的技术创新扩散分析已经无法全面揭示其本质规律。因此深入探讨新形势下信息通信技术的标准扩散规律,已经成为学术界亟待解决的重要课题。
本文研究的主要目的是通过对信息通信技术标准扩散的理论分析,在创新扩散Bass模型的基础上构建信息通信技术标准扩散模型,并应用模型对信息通信技术标准的扩散趋势进行实证研究,从而对中国信息通信产业的标准化政策提出建议。
本文通过对技术标准理论、信息通信技术标准有关特点及其生命周期性的深入分析,论证了标准扩散在整个标准生命周期中的重要作用,界定了标准扩散的概念;在技术创新扩散理论的基础上,通过分析技术创新与技术标准之间的关系,探寻技术标准扩散与创新扩散之间的关系;深入研究了信息通信技术标准扩散的有关特点,对标准扩散过程中外界影响的非恒定性进行了分析。
本文在充分借鉴以往技术创新扩散模型研究的基础上,在构建信息通信技术非恒定影响(Non-Invariable Influence,简称NII)标准扩散模型时融合了理论分析的结果——在标准扩散过程中外界影响表现为非恒定性,而不是经典Bass模型假设的影响恒定,并据此对Bass模型进行了扩展研究,推导出NII标准扩散模型表达式。NII模型的显著特点是与Bass模型相比增加了一个非恒定影响系数D,本文讨论了如何通过控制D值的变化来影响标准扩散趋势。并通过与Bass模型的比较和对中国互联网IPv4标准扩散趋势的实证研究,验证了NII模型的适用性和优越性。
本文最后对中国信息通信技术标准化政策提出了建议。通过分析非恒定影响标准扩散模型的核心思想和实践意义,阐明了NII模型的政策含义;并通过对发达国家标准化政策的评价,总结值得我国信息通信产业学习的经验;最后基于非恒定影响标准扩散模型的思想,结合我国信息通信产业的实际情况,提出了六点有针对性的政策建议,促进民族信息通信技术标准实现扩散,以提高我国信息通信产业的标准竞争力。
Globalization of economy, informationization of society and internationalization of standard are the overall trends of today’s world. In the second half of the 20th century, along with the rapid development of ICT (Information and Communication Technology) in the world, the global competitive environment is undergoing profound changes. ICT companies, such as Microsoft and Intel, are holding the leading positions in this competition by taking the advantages of leading high-tech and powerful network resources, and controlling the global resources based on the modularization, technology standards and commercial rules. The Wintel producing manner, which achieves economic interests by diffusing the established standards, can comprehensively reveales its essential disciplinarian by using the traditional analysis methods of technology innovation and diffusion Therefore, it has become an important subject in academe to investigate the diffusion rules of information and communication technology standards.
This paper aims at creating ICT standard diffusion model based on the innovation of Bass model by analysis of ICT standard diffusion theory. By applying the model to the emperical study of ICT standard diffusion trend, some suggestions are proposed to ICT standardization policy in China.
Through deep analysis of technology standard theory and ICT standard’s characteristics and lifecycle, this paper demonstrates the important role standard diffusion takes in ICT’s lifecycle and defines the concept of standard diffusion. Based on the technology innovation diffusion theories, this paper explores the relationship between technology innovation diffusion and technology standard diffusion by analyzing the relationship between technology innovation and technology standard. This paper deeply investigates the features and rules of standard diffusion, and establishes the foundation for ICT standard diffusion model.
This paper reviews the previous works on technology innovation diffusion models and proposes an NII (Non-Invariable Influence) model based on the results of theoretical analysis. It also finds out that the outside influence is non-invariable differing from the invariable assumption in classical Bass model. A new diffusion model expression is then derived from the classical Bass model. The remarkable characteristic of NII model is that a Non-Invariable Influence coefficient D is added. This paper discusses how to influence standard diffusion trend by controlling D.NII model has its applicability and superiority compared with Bass model according to emperical study on the standard diffusion trend of Chinese network IPv4.
At last, this paper makes suggestions on China’s ICT standardization policy. The policy signification of the proposed model is elaborated by examining the core idea and practical significance of the NII model. Through the evaluation of the standardization policy in developed countries, the paper summarizes some useful experience for the ICT industry in China. Six pieces of suggestion are proposed based on the core idea of the NII model and the actual situation of ICT industry in China. Promote national ICT standard diffusion to enhance information-communication industry’s standard competition power of our country.
本文研究的主要目的是通过对信息通信技术标准扩散的理论分析,在创新扩散Bass模型的基础上构建信息通信技术标准扩散模型,并应用模型对信息通信技术标准的扩散趋势进行实证研究,从而对中国信息通信产业的标准化政策提出建议。
本文通过对技术标准理论、信息通信技术标准有关特点及其生命周期性的深入分析,论证了标准扩散在整个标准生命周期中的重要作用,界定了标准扩散的概念;在技术创新扩散理论的基础上,通过分析技术创新与技术标准之间的关系,探寻技术标准扩散与创新扩散之间的关系;深入研究了信息通信技术标准扩散的有关特点,对标准扩散过程中外界影响的非恒定性进行了分析。
本文在充分借鉴以往技术创新扩散模型研究的基础上,在构建信息通信技术非恒定影响(Non-Invariable Influence,简称NII)标准扩散模型时融合了理论分析的结果——在标准扩散过程中外界影响表现为非恒定性,而不是经典Bass模型假设的影响恒定,并据此对Bass模型进行了扩展研究,推导出NII标准扩散模型表达式。NII模型的显著特点是与Bass模型相比增加了一个非恒定影响系数D,本文讨论了如何通过控制D值的变化来影响标准扩散趋势。并通过与Bass模型的比较和对中国互联网IPv4标准扩散趋势的实证研究,验证了NII模型的适用性和优越性。
本文最后对中国信息通信技术标准化政策提出了建议。通过分析非恒定影响标准扩散模型的核心思想和实践意义,阐明了NII模型的政策含义;并通过对发达国家标准化政策的评价,总结值得我国信息通信产业学习的经验;最后基于非恒定影响标准扩散模型的思想,结合我国信息通信产业的实际情况,提出了六点有针对性的政策建议,促进民族信息通信技术标准实现扩散,以提高我国信息通信产业的标准竞争力。
Globalization of economy, informationization of society and internationalization of standard are the overall trends of today’s world. In the second half of the 20th century, along with the rapid development of ICT (Information and Communication Technology) in the world, the global competitive environment is undergoing profound changes. ICT companies, such as Microsoft and Intel, are holding the leading positions in this competition by taking the advantages of leading high-tech and powerful network resources, and controlling the global resources based on the modularization, technology standards and commercial rules. The Wintel producing manner, which achieves economic interests by diffusing the established standards, can comprehensively reveales its essential disciplinarian by using the traditional analysis methods of technology innovation and diffusion Therefore, it has become an important subject in academe to investigate the diffusion rules of information and communication technology standards.
This paper aims at creating ICT standard diffusion model based on the innovation of Bass model by analysis of ICT standard diffusion theory. By applying the model to the emperical study of ICT standard diffusion trend, some suggestions are proposed to ICT standardization policy in China.
Through deep analysis of technology standard theory and ICT standard’s characteristics and lifecycle, this paper demonstrates the important role standard diffusion takes in ICT’s lifecycle and defines the concept of standard diffusion. Based on the technology innovation diffusion theories, this paper explores the relationship between technology innovation diffusion and technology standard diffusion by analyzing the relationship between technology innovation and technology standard. This paper deeply investigates the features and rules of standard diffusion, and establishes the foundation for ICT standard diffusion model.
This paper reviews the previous works on technology innovation diffusion models and proposes an NII (Non-Invariable Influence) model based on the results of theoretical analysis. It also finds out that the outside influence is non-invariable differing from the invariable assumption in classical Bass model. A new diffusion model expression is then derived from the classical Bass model. The remarkable characteristic of NII model is that a Non-Invariable Influence coefficient D is added. This paper discusses how to influence standard diffusion trend by controlling D.NII model has its applicability and superiority compared with Bass model according to emperical study on the standard diffusion trend of Chinese network IPv4.
At last, this paper makes suggestions on China’s ICT standardization policy. The policy signification of the proposed model is elaborated by examining the core idea and practical significance of the NII model. Through the evaluation of the standardization policy in developed countries, the paper summarizes some useful experience for the ICT industry in China. Six pieces of suggestion are proposed based on the core idea of the NII model and the actual situation of ICT industry in China. Promote national ICT standard diffusion to enhance information-communication industry’s standard competition power of our country.
引文
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