基于投入产出理论的河南省农产品加工业发展研究
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摘要
改革开放30年,我国农业已经发展到以农民增收、农业增效为主题,靠加工业带动提高农业的综合效益,实现农业向加工业转变的一个新的阶段。河南省作为我国的第一农业大省,近几年来农产品的供求形势发生了重大变化,农产品的供给由过去的长期短缺转变为阶段性的相对过剩,导致了农产品出现“卖难”的现象。另一方面,以食品工业为主体,集农业、制造业、现代服务业于一体的农产品加工业,已逐渐成为国民经济中的战略性、全局性的支柱产业,成为满足人民群众“安全、营养、方便”消费需求的“朝阳产业”。因此,大力发展农产品加工业成为了河南省引领农业发展,促进农业增效和农民增收的突破口,对于河南省的经济发展具有方向性、全局性、战略性的意义。
本文在国内外关于农产品加工业发展和投入产出分析理论的基础上,利用河南省投入产出表,从投入产出的角度对农产品加工业与其它产业部门的经济联系及其关联效应进行了实证分析,并以此为切入点展开了对河南省农产品加工业部门发展的投入产出分析,最后结合河南省的实际情况,对促进河南省农产品加工业进一步发展提出建议。本文的主要结论有:(1)1997-2007年河南省农产品加工业发展势头良好,在河南经济中的作用越来越大,但与发达地区还有差距;(2)农产品加工业属于中间产品型部门,对河南经济的贡献能力最强,主要依靠省内消费和省外需求的拉动;(3)农产品加工业与其他产业部门的经济联系,间接联系要远大于直接联系,并且其属于内生式的发展部门;(4)农产品加工业产品的价格变动对于农业的影响较大,而其他产业产品价格变动对农产品加工业的影响有限;(5)省内最终需求、净流出和生产技术这三种因素对各农产品加工业部门的影响程度并不相同,并且在不同时期的影响程度也有所差异。
本文的创新工作主要体现在以下几个方面:(1)主要基于投入产出分析的角度,着眼于农产品加工业的关联效应和产业波及效应,并以此为切入点对河南省农产品加工业部门发展进行深入的实证研究;(2)在分析方法上,以投入产出分析的基本内容为基础,结合了SDA模型方法来对河南省农产品加工业进行全面的、多角度的投入产出分析,使得对于河南省农产品加工业的部门发展情况的认识更为深刻;(3)本文利用了最新的2007年河南省投入产出表中农产品加工业,而且研究跨度从1997年到2007年,这样的时间跨度上的研究在之前是不多见的。
Since the reform and opening-up for 30 years, agriculture in China with the theme increasing farmers' income and improving the benefit has achieved changes in the agricultural processing industry to a new stage. Certainly, situation of supply and demand of agricultural products in recent years have made great changes in Henan province, which is the largest agricultural province in China. On one hand, the supply of agricultural products from the previous stage into a chronic shortage of the relative surplus of agricultural products has led to the "difficulty in selling" phenomenon; on the other hand, the agricultural product processing industry basing on the food industry and composing of the agricultural, manufacturing, modern service industry has gradually become a strategic pillar industry to national economy so that to meet the "sunrise industry" of people's "safety, nutrition, convenience" consumer demand. So, vigorously develop the processing industry of agricultural products has become the leading agricultural development in Henan, which is also a breakthrough to promote the agricultural efficiency and farmers increase, therefore, it is truly of great importance with the direction of overall and strategic significance to economic development of Henan province.
According to analysis on theory of the development of agricultural product processing industry and the input-output in China and abroad, we study thoroughly the economic relationship and the correlative effect between agricultural product processing industry and some other industries, and from this angle we find that the agricultural product processing industry can indirectly promote the economic development of Henan Province through the data of the input-output table of Henan Province. Our main conclusion in this paper includes: (1) In 1997-2007, agricultural product processing industry in Henan Province maintained sound development momentum, which plays an increasingly important role in Henan's economic, but it still lag behind comparing with the developed areas. (2) Agricultural product processing industry is a middle product sector, its contribution to the economy in Henan is quite strong that mainly depends on its consumption and the foreign demand. (3) The indirect links between agricultural product processing industry and other industrial sectors is much larger than the direct. It is also an endogenous style of development sectors. (4)The fluctuation on the price of product of agricultural product processing industry usually affects the agriculture that such an effect is quite limit. (5) The province of final demand, the net outflow of technology and production, and these three factors on the agricultural product processing industry has different degree of influence, and the impact may be also different at different time.
The article's innovation mainly includes: (1) This article is mainly based on the perspective of input-output analysis, and focus on correlation effect and spread effect of agricultural product processing industry, and we also use it as an entry point for agricultural product processing industry in Henan Province to let the sector conduct in-depth empirical research.. (2) On analysis, basing on the basic content of input-output analysis and SDA model, we make a comprehensive and multi-angle analysis on input-output of agricultural product processing industry, which provides us better understanding of the sector development of agricultural products processing industry. (3) We use the latest input-output table in Henan, 2007, and our research mainly spans from 1997 to 2007, which is few referred in any other papers.
本文在国内外关于农产品加工业发展和投入产出分析理论的基础上,利用河南省投入产出表,从投入产出的角度对农产品加工业与其它产业部门的经济联系及其关联效应进行了实证分析,并以此为切入点展开了对河南省农产品加工业部门发展的投入产出分析,最后结合河南省的实际情况,对促进河南省农产品加工业进一步发展提出建议。本文的主要结论有:(1)1997-2007年河南省农产品加工业发展势头良好,在河南经济中的作用越来越大,但与发达地区还有差距;(2)农产品加工业属于中间产品型部门,对河南经济的贡献能力最强,主要依靠省内消费和省外需求的拉动;(3)农产品加工业与其他产业部门的经济联系,间接联系要远大于直接联系,并且其属于内生式的发展部门;(4)农产品加工业产品的价格变动对于农业的影响较大,而其他产业产品价格变动对农产品加工业的影响有限;(5)省内最终需求、净流出和生产技术这三种因素对各农产品加工业部门的影响程度并不相同,并且在不同时期的影响程度也有所差异。
本文的创新工作主要体现在以下几个方面:(1)主要基于投入产出分析的角度,着眼于农产品加工业的关联效应和产业波及效应,并以此为切入点对河南省农产品加工业部门发展进行深入的实证研究;(2)在分析方法上,以投入产出分析的基本内容为基础,结合了SDA模型方法来对河南省农产品加工业进行全面的、多角度的投入产出分析,使得对于河南省农产品加工业的部门发展情况的认识更为深刻;(3)本文利用了最新的2007年河南省投入产出表中农产品加工业,而且研究跨度从1997年到2007年,这样的时间跨度上的研究在之前是不多见的。
Since the reform and opening-up for 30 years, agriculture in China with the theme increasing farmers' income and improving the benefit has achieved changes in the agricultural processing industry to a new stage. Certainly, situation of supply and demand of agricultural products in recent years have made great changes in Henan province, which is the largest agricultural province in China. On one hand, the supply of agricultural products from the previous stage into a chronic shortage of the relative surplus of agricultural products has led to the "difficulty in selling" phenomenon; on the other hand, the agricultural product processing industry basing on the food industry and composing of the agricultural, manufacturing, modern service industry has gradually become a strategic pillar industry to national economy so that to meet the "sunrise industry" of people's "safety, nutrition, convenience" consumer demand. So, vigorously develop the processing industry of agricultural products has become the leading agricultural development in Henan, which is also a breakthrough to promote the agricultural efficiency and farmers increase, therefore, it is truly of great importance with the direction of overall and strategic significance to economic development of Henan province.
According to analysis on theory of the development of agricultural product processing industry and the input-output in China and abroad, we study thoroughly the economic relationship and the correlative effect between agricultural product processing industry and some other industries, and from this angle we find that the agricultural product processing industry can indirectly promote the economic development of Henan Province through the data of the input-output table of Henan Province. Our main conclusion in this paper includes: (1) In 1997-2007, agricultural product processing industry in Henan Province maintained sound development momentum, which plays an increasingly important role in Henan's economic, but it still lag behind comparing with the developed areas. (2) Agricultural product processing industry is a middle product sector, its contribution to the economy in Henan is quite strong that mainly depends on its consumption and the foreign demand. (3) The indirect links between agricultural product processing industry and other industrial sectors is much larger than the direct. It is also an endogenous style of development sectors. (4)The fluctuation on the price of product of agricultural product processing industry usually affects the agriculture that such an effect is quite limit. (5) The province of final demand, the net outflow of technology and production, and these three factors on the agricultural product processing industry has different degree of influence, and the impact may be also different at different time.
The article's innovation mainly includes: (1) This article is mainly based on the perspective of input-output analysis, and focus on correlation effect and spread effect of agricultural product processing industry, and we also use it as an entry point for agricultural product processing industry in Henan Province to let the sector conduct in-depth empirical research.. (2) On analysis, basing on the basic content of input-output analysis and SDA model, we make a comprehensive and multi-angle analysis on input-output of agricultural product processing industry, which provides us better understanding of the sector development of agricultural products processing industry. (3) We use the latest input-output table in Henan, 2007, and our research mainly spans from 1997 to 2007, which is few referred in any other papers.
引文
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