中国私人投资的宏观决定因素研究
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摘要
理想的经济增长是靠消费、投资和出口协调拉动的。多年来,中国经济的高速增长主要依靠更高的固定资产投资增长率来支撑是不可持续的。要扭转这种失衡局面,必须深入研究投资结构,分析投资决定因素,掌握投资运行规律。本文研究的内容是私人投资的宏观决定因素,只是对上述问题的部分尝试,期望能够为我国私人投资的发展从理论和实践的指导两方面做出绵薄贡献。
本文着重从宏观方面研究我国私人投资的决定因素,研究的范围涉及到经济增长、公共投资、金融抑制以及宏观不确定性对私人投资的影响,分为三个部分。
第一部分是导论和文献综述。主要总结前人的研究成果,梳理国内外相关研究的理论、方法和进展,界定我国私人投资的概念及统计口径,说明本文研究的背景、意义、研究方法、结构与内容、主要创新、不足及进一步研究的方向。
第二部分是我国私人投资决定因素的理论研究。这一部分由第三章、第四章、第五章和第六章组成。第三章主要检验投资与经济增长的关系,无论是乘数理论、加速器理论还是经济增长理论,都说明经济增长可能是投资最主要的决定因素,本文应用格兰杰因果关系的实证结果也说明了这一点。第四章主要探讨公共投资与私人投资的关系,对于公共投资对私人投资的影响,长期以来都存在着“挤入”还是“挤出”的争论。国内外研究的结果对这两种效应都不乏有支持者,本文的实证发现,我国公共投资对私人投资有微弱的“挤入”效应。第五章主要研究金融抑制对私人投资的影响,本文的实证结果发现,我国同其它发展中国家一样,也处于典型的麦金农金融抑制阶段,私人投资对利率缺乏弹性。第六章着重分析宏观不确定性下私人投资的一些性质,揭示在调节成本和不可逆特性下,不确定性与私人投资之间可能存在的相关关系。
第三部分是对私人投资决定因素的实证分析。通过引入局部调整机制,把前面章节讨论的可能影响私人投资的因素纳入一个整体的分析框架,考察了在长、中、短期内可能影响私人投资的因素以及这些因素对私人投资的影响程度。
The ideal economic growth was pulled by the coordination of consumption, investment and exports. The fast economy growth of China mainly depending on the high growth rate of fixed capital investment is unsustainable. To turn back such out-of-balance situation, it's necessary to deeply research on investment structure, analyze its determinant and take the reins of its functioning principles. This article is concerning to the macro determinants of private investment, an attempt on a small portion of the above-mentioned problems, with the expectation to make the contribution of meager strength of theoretical and practical guidance to the China's private investment development.
This text focuses on the decisive factor of private investment of our country on the macroscopically respect, involving economic growth, public investments, finance repressing and macroscopically uncertainty impact on private investment. It is divided into three parts.
First section deals with the introduction and literature reviews, summarizing the previous researches and the related theories, methodology and procession home and abroad, defining the China's private investment and the statistic method, as well as introducing the background, research methodology, structure and contents, major creative points, disadvantages of the paper and the possible future research directions.
Section two talks about the theories of the determinants of the China's private investment, including Chapter Three, Chapter Four, Chapter Five and Six. The relationship of investment and economy growth was tested in Chapter Three. Multiplier theory、accelerator theory and economic growth theory all prove that economic growth is the most important determinants of investment. Application of the results of Grainger's causality this text also prove that. Chapter Four discusses the relationship of public investment and private investment. On the effects of the public investment on the private investment, there are hot disputes about "crowd in" or "crowd out". The research results home and abroad support the two effects respectively. It's found through the demonstration that China's public investment shows insignificant influences on the private investment. The influence of Finance repressing on private investment is discussed in Chapter Five. The real example result herein is found. The illustrations show that the same to the other developing countries, in China, which is on the typical McKinnon's finance repressing phrase, private investment lack flexibility to the interest rates. Chapter Six emphatically analyzes the qualities of private investment under the macro uncertainty and mainly discovered some certain correlativity between uncertainty and private investment in terms of adjusting cost and irreversibility.
The third section analyzes on the determinants of private investment through illustrations. By introducing part adjustment system and bringing the factors probably affecting the private investment mentioned in the above into a holistic frame for analysis, this section investigates which factors would probably affect the private investment in the long or short term and to what degree.
本文着重从宏观方面研究我国私人投资的决定因素,研究的范围涉及到经济增长、公共投资、金融抑制以及宏观不确定性对私人投资的影响,分为三个部分。
第一部分是导论和文献综述。主要总结前人的研究成果,梳理国内外相关研究的理论、方法和进展,界定我国私人投资的概念及统计口径,说明本文研究的背景、意义、研究方法、结构与内容、主要创新、不足及进一步研究的方向。
第二部分是我国私人投资决定因素的理论研究。这一部分由第三章、第四章、第五章和第六章组成。第三章主要检验投资与经济增长的关系,无论是乘数理论、加速器理论还是经济增长理论,都说明经济增长可能是投资最主要的决定因素,本文应用格兰杰因果关系的实证结果也说明了这一点。第四章主要探讨公共投资与私人投资的关系,对于公共投资对私人投资的影响,长期以来都存在着“挤入”还是“挤出”的争论。国内外研究的结果对这两种效应都不乏有支持者,本文的实证发现,我国公共投资对私人投资有微弱的“挤入”效应。第五章主要研究金融抑制对私人投资的影响,本文的实证结果发现,我国同其它发展中国家一样,也处于典型的麦金农金融抑制阶段,私人投资对利率缺乏弹性。第六章着重分析宏观不确定性下私人投资的一些性质,揭示在调节成本和不可逆特性下,不确定性与私人投资之间可能存在的相关关系。
第三部分是对私人投资决定因素的实证分析。通过引入局部调整机制,把前面章节讨论的可能影响私人投资的因素纳入一个整体的分析框架,考察了在长、中、短期内可能影响私人投资的因素以及这些因素对私人投资的影响程度。
The ideal economic growth was pulled by the coordination of consumption, investment and exports. The fast economy growth of China mainly depending on the high growth rate of fixed capital investment is unsustainable. To turn back such out-of-balance situation, it's necessary to deeply research on investment structure, analyze its determinant and take the reins of its functioning principles. This article is concerning to the macro determinants of private investment, an attempt on a small portion of the above-mentioned problems, with the expectation to make the contribution of meager strength of theoretical and practical guidance to the China's private investment development.
This text focuses on the decisive factor of private investment of our country on the macroscopically respect, involving economic growth, public investments, finance repressing and macroscopically uncertainty impact on private investment. It is divided into three parts.
First section deals with the introduction and literature reviews, summarizing the previous researches and the related theories, methodology and procession home and abroad, defining the China's private investment and the statistic method, as well as introducing the background, research methodology, structure and contents, major creative points, disadvantages of the paper and the possible future research directions.
Section two talks about the theories of the determinants of the China's private investment, including Chapter Three, Chapter Four, Chapter Five and Six. The relationship of investment and economy growth was tested in Chapter Three. Multiplier theory、accelerator theory and economic growth theory all prove that economic growth is the most important determinants of investment. Application of the results of Grainger's causality this text also prove that. Chapter Four discusses the relationship of public investment and private investment. On the effects of the public investment on the private investment, there are hot disputes about "crowd in" or "crowd out". The research results home and abroad support the two effects respectively. It's found through the demonstration that China's public investment shows insignificant influences on the private investment. The influence of Finance repressing on private investment is discussed in Chapter Five. The real example result herein is found. The illustrations show that the same to the other developing countries, in China, which is on the typical McKinnon's finance repressing phrase, private investment lack flexibility to the interest rates. Chapter Six emphatically analyzes the qualities of private investment under the macro uncertainty and mainly discovered some certain correlativity between uncertainty and private investment in terms of adjusting cost and irreversibility.
The third section analyzes on the determinants of private investment through illustrations. By introducing part adjustment system and bringing the factors probably affecting the private investment mentioned in the above into a holistic frame for analysis, this section investigates which factors would probably affect the private investment in the long or short term and to what degree.
引文
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