中国碳排放交易体系设计研究
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摘要
本文首先对世界主要温室气体排放交易体系做了分析比较。认为《京都议定书》下的国际温室气体排放贸易体系,提供了中国碳排放交易体系一个架构的经验:在2008-2012年阶段,对全球温室气体排放总量来说,《京都议定书》不是一个总量限排的交易体系,它改变的是全球排放增长的速率。不可否认,《京都议定书》极大推动了低碳产业和全球减排行动;欧洲的碳排放交易体系,为中国排放权交易体系建设提供了操作层面的经验;美澳的减排也是从地方开始,印度在发展阶段和面临问题与我国类似,本文也做了一定的介绍和分析。本文分析我国建立碳排放权交易体系的必要性,着重研究我国建立碳排放交易体系的约束性条件。总量限排和我国经济社会发展阶段有着深刻的矛盾。处于工业化中期阶段,城市化水平的提高、消费水平的升级和能源结构长期依赖高碳能源的现实,决定了碳需求持续增长是个客观的趋势,决定了中国碳排放体系只能从一个区域性的限排体系起步。回顾了已有的排污权交易实践,认为地方性排污权交易实践出现了总量限制失灵和交易失灵。总量失灵,就是总量限制形同虚设,使碳排放交易体系失去实施基础和执行基础;交易失灵体现就是排放许可证的零需求和零供给,使碳排放交易体系失去参与基础。本文认为,总量失灵,反映了地方政府的真实意愿,地方政府在碳排放交易体系中,并非是单纯的管理者角色,地方政府的GDP倾向,实际上也是经济人,建立一个区域性碳排放体系与否取决于体系自身的收益和成本。文中,按照机制设计理论,激励相容的思想,推导出体系收益来自减排地域限排行业的区位优势、辅助性收益、先行者优势以及减排和迁移的成本对比四个方面。并认为,在碳排放交易体系建立的初期阶段,地区性的竞争优势起到主导作用,这种地区性竞争优势最突出的表现就是限排对该限排行业在该地区的竞争力不成为逆转性因素。这种情况下,地方政府才有行动力的基础。辅助性收益中的中央政府的实质性支持也有一定的推动作用;对交易失灵,文中总结了增加交易者和交易量的一般设计方法。本文提供了一个中国碳排放权交易体系的思路:以晋内蒙冀鲁为先行核心减排区,进行火电行业的重点减排;将先行核心减排区建设成碳的交易平台、资金支持平台、技术平台、CDM重组平台、电力改革平台、国际合作平台。以相邻的苏、陕、豫、浙、辽、皖为预备减排观察区,以Offset项目等其他的形式参与减排行动,启动强制限排时间表,鼓励地方自主性减排激励政策;最后是全国共同的减排行动构成一个市场化、以企业自主能动为主的减排机制。本文对作为先行核心减排的区域性强制减排交易体系的基本结构设计在细节上也提出了一些建议。
This dissertation firstly analyses and compares main greenhouse gas emission trading systems in the world. The analysis illustrates that the current international greenhouse gas emission trading system under "Kyoto Protocol" provides framework experiences for carbon emission trading system in China: during period between 2008 and 2012, the "Kyoto Protocol" is not a trading system to limit the total emission, but it is a system that has changed the growth rate of global emissions. Surely the "Kyoto Protocol" has facilitated development of low carbon industry and global emission reduction actions. Meanwhile, carbon emissions trading system in Europe has provided China with operational experiences in setting up similar systems. In addition, the analysis contains carbon emission reduction activities in other countries, such as local events in emission reduction in the United States and Australia, and initial development stage in emission reduction in India.
The analyses then discuss the necessity of establishing carbon emissions trading system in China, focusing on constraints on setting up such a system. In China, there are profound conflicts between total emission reduction and current stage of economic and social development. China is in its middle stage of industrialization, with increased urbanization, escalation of consumption level and heavy dependence on high-carbon energy sources. These factors determine growing carbon demand is an objective trend in China. To tackle this problem, a realistic approach is to start building emission reduction systems from regional levels.
Recalling China's emissions trade since 2000, local emissions trading practices are in fact malfunction in both total emission control and emissions trading. Total emission control failure means the emission cap exist without its true function so that the implementation of carbon emissions trading system loses its base. Trading malfunction represents emission certificates with zero demand and zero supply, therefore carbon emissions trading loses its base for participation. The analyses reckon that total emission control failure reflects the true motivation of local governments. In China, local governments act not only managerial role but also interest groups in carbon emissions trading due to the GDP driven nature. To establish a regional carbon emission system depends on benefits and costs to the system itself. Based on the mechanism design theory and the incentive compatibility concept, this dissertation concludes that system benefits are resulted from four key aspects. They are regional competitive advantages, supplementary income, forerunner advantages , the contrast between migration cost and abatement cost. Regional competitive advantage plays a leading role on building carbon emission trading system during its initial stage. The most important element of the regional competitive advantages is that emission reduction within target industry does not result in negative impact on the regional competitive advantages. Under such circumstances, local governments will have motivation to encourage emission reduction. In addition, supplementary income from actual incentives of central government will facilitate the system to develop. In case of trading malfunction, this paper summarizes a general design method of increasing trading entities and transactions volume.
This article also presents a proposal on establishing carbon emission certificate trading system in China. Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Hebei and Shandong provinces will be forerunners as core emission zone with focus on reducing emissions from thermal power industry. This core area can be assumed, for carbon, as financial support, technology, Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) re-organisation, power reform and international cooperation platform. The neighbour provinces, such as Jiangsu, Shaanxi, Henan, Zhejiang, Liaoning, Anhui can be prepared as emission reduction observing areas. These provinces can take part in emissions reduction via“Offset”projects or other mitigation activities, and kick off the mandatory emission schedule. Emission reduction incentives should be implemented to encourage local voluntary emission mitigation. Finally, the national emission reduction actions constitute an emission reduction mechanism that is marketable and led by corporate voluntary mitigating activities. This paper also considers suggestions on design of basic structure for regional mandatory emission reduction trading system for forerunner core area.
This dissertation firstly analyses and compares main greenhouse gas emission trading systems in the world. The analysis illustrates that the current international greenhouse gas emission trading system under "Kyoto Protocol" provides framework experiences for carbon emission trading system in China: during period between 2008 and 2012, the "Kyoto Protocol" is not a trading system to limit the total emission, but it is a system that has changed the growth rate of global emissions. Surely the "Kyoto Protocol" has facilitated development of low carbon industry and global emission reduction actions. Meanwhile, carbon emissions trading system in Europe has provided China with operational experiences in setting up similar systems. In addition, the analysis contains carbon emission reduction activities in other countries, such as local events in emission reduction in the United States and Australia, and initial development stage in emission reduction in India.
The analyses then discuss the necessity of establishing carbon emissions trading system in China, focusing on constraints on setting up such a system. In China, there are profound conflicts between total emission reduction and current stage of economic and social development. China is in its middle stage of industrialization, with increased urbanization, escalation of consumption level and heavy dependence on high-carbon energy sources. These factors determine growing carbon demand is an objective trend in China. To tackle this problem, a realistic approach is to start building emission reduction systems from regional levels.
Recalling China's emissions trade since 2000, local emissions trading practices are in fact malfunction in both total emission control and emissions trading. Total emission control failure means the emission cap exist without its true function so that the implementation of carbon emissions trading system loses its base. Trading malfunction represents emission certificates with zero demand and zero supply, therefore carbon emissions trading loses its base for participation. The analyses reckon that total emission control failure reflects the true motivation of local governments. In China, local governments act not only managerial role but also interest groups in carbon emissions trading due to the GDP driven nature. To establish a regional carbon emission system depends on benefits and costs to the system itself. Based on the mechanism design theory and the incentive compatibility concept, this dissertation concludes that system benefits are resulted from four key aspects. They are regional competitive advantages, supplementary income, forerunner advantages , the contrast between migration cost and abatement cost. Regional competitive advantage plays a leading role on building carbon emission trading system during its initial stage. The most important element of the regional competitive advantages is that emission reduction within target industry does not result in negative impact on the regional competitive advantages. Under such circumstances, local governments will have motivation to encourage emission reduction. In addition, supplementary income from actual incentives of central government will facilitate the system to develop. In case of trading malfunction, this paper summarizes a general design method of increasing trading entities and transactions volume.
This article also presents a proposal on establishing carbon emission certificate trading system in China. Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Hebei and Shandong provinces will be forerunners as core emission zone with focus on reducing emissions from thermal power industry. This core area can be assumed, for carbon, as financial support, technology, Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) re-organisation, power reform and international cooperation platform. The neighbour provinces, such as Jiangsu, Shaanxi, Henan, Zhejiang, Liaoning, Anhui can be prepared as emission reduction observing areas. These provinces can take part in emissions reduction via“Offset”projects or other mitigation activities, and kick off the mandatory emission schedule. Emission reduction incentives should be implemented to encourage local voluntary emission mitigation. Finally, the national emission reduction actions constitute an emission reduction mechanism that is marketable and led by corporate voluntary mitigating activities. This paper also considers suggestions on design of basic structure for regional mandatory emission reduction trading system for forerunner core area.
引文
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