基于产业关联的环渤海地区工业结构调整效应研究
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摘要
工业为国民经济的快速稳定发展做出了重要的贡献,但是随着工业的发展,对能源的消费以及对水环境的污染也在不断增加。改革开放以来,环渤海凭借着优越的地理区位优势、丰富的自然资源优势、发达的海陆空交通优势和雄厚的工业基础优势,已发展成为我国北方经济最发达的地区。环渤海地区工业基础雄厚,工业规模庞大,门类齐全,工业基础坚实,是我国石油、钢铁、化工、重型机械、造船、煤炭等产业的重要生产基地,环渤海地区工业结构严重向重工业偏移,这种高投入、高污染、高耗能的经济增长方式从长期来看,是不可持续的,注定要付出巨大的能源和环境代价。环渤海地区作为影响渤海环境最直接的陆域区域,其社会经济的许多活动都将对渤海海洋环境产生直接或间接的影响,使得渤海承受着巨大的环境负担。因此,研究环渤海地区工业结构,推动区域产业结构的合理化与高度化,对于环渤海地区经济的快速发展和保护渤海海洋环境具有举足轻重的作用。论文研究内容及结论如下：
(1)基于MRIO模型,构建了环渤海三省两市区域间投入产出模型,并分析了北京市、天津市、河北省、辽宁省和山东省区域间的产业联系,结果发现环渤海三省两市工业产业结构呈现着明显的重工业化特色,从某种程度上说,工业结构的差异性不明显。
(2)以Leontief提出的投入产出技术为基础,将不同区域相同年度的投入产出表加工整合,构建了环渤海地区区域投入产出模型,为研究环渤海地区产业关联提供理论基础。
(3)以环渤海地区区域投入产出模型为基础,分析了环渤海地区典型重工业的发展趋势以及发展对其他工业部门的波及效果。研究发现,环渤海地区石化产业、钢铁产业和装备制造业的波及效果较大的产业都集中在重工业领域,尤其以三者相互之间的波及效果最为显著,从而形成区域重工业内部自循环。
(4)从列昂惕夫逆矩阵和工业化发展阶段两个角度对环渤海地区工业结构关联效应进行了情景分析,为环渤海地区工业能源消耗量、废水排放量的情景分析提供基础。
(5)分析了工业结构与能源消耗、水环境污染的关系,并模拟所设定的3种情景下能源消耗量以及工业废水排放量的变化情况。结果显示,转型情景下,受产业波及影响所需要额外消耗的能源量以及工业废水的排放量最少,而加速情景和基准情景下,相反则较多。
(6)最后通过前文分析得出的结论以及相关的统计数据和文献资料,针对环渤海地区工业产业结构中存在的问题提出工业结构调整建议。
Industry as the rapid and stable development of the national economy has made important contributions, but with the development of industry, energy consumption and pollution of the water environment is also increasing.As the largest economic region in northern China, Bohai Rim becomes the third of China's economic growth poles after the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta which has an extremely important position in China's economic development. Currently, Bohai Rim is in the later stages of industrialization and industry is still the main force promoting regional economic development. Recently, the other four provinces except capital Beijing have caught large industrial projects. Heavy chemical projects, such as petrochemical, steel,coal, ships, heavy machinery, are widely lie out along the Bohai coast. Industrial structure of Bohai Rim is seriously inclind to heavy industry. In the long run, the way of economic growth with high input, high pollution and high energy consumption is unsustainable doomed to pay huge environmental price. As a direct influence of Bohai environment, the social and economic activities of Bohai Rim will affect Bohai sea environment, which puts Bohai under huge environmental pressure. Therefore, study the industrial structure of Bohai Rim and promote the regional industrial structure rationalization and advancement has practical significance for regional economy rapid development.The contents and conclusions are as follows:
(1) Based on MRIO model, the interregional input-output model of Bohai Rim is established and the interregional industrial relationship of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning and Shandong are also analyzed. Results show that industrial structure of Bohai Rim obtains an obvious characteristic in heavy industrialization and no significant difference in the industrial structure is found between any two regions.
(2) On the basis of Leontief's input-output technology, Input-Output Tables of different region but of the same year are integrated to establish the interregional input-output model of Bohai Rim, providing theoretical foundations for industrial relationship study of Bohai Rim.
(3) Interregional input-output model of Bohai Rim as the base, development trend of typical heavy industry of Bohai Rim and their industrial affection on other industrial sectors are analyzed. Study has found out that industries on which the petrochemical industry, steel industry, and equipment manufacturing industry have the significant industrial affection are centralized in heavy industry. It is also found that mutual industrial affections among these typical industries are the most significant, forming the self-circulation within regional heavy industry.
(4) Scenario analyses of industrial structure correlation effect of Bohai Rim are carried out from two perspectives:the Leontief inverse matrix and the stage of industrialization, providing basis for the scenario analysis of industrial energy consumption and that of industrial wastewater discharge.
(5) Relationships of industrial structure and energy consumption, water environmental pollution have been analyzed, and relevant energy consumption and industrial wastewater discharge in three situations are simulated. Results show that under the baseline scenario,, the extra energy consumption and the extra industrial wastewater discharge required by the industrial affection are the least, while those are relatively greater under accelerated transformation scenario and linear growth scenario.
(6) Finally, based on the conclusions above and relevant statistical data and document literature, proposals for industrial structure adjustment are put forward against the existing problems in industrial structure of Bohai Rim
(1)基于MRIO模型,构建了环渤海三省两市区域间投入产出模型,并分析了北京市、天津市、河北省、辽宁省和山东省区域间的产业联系,结果发现环渤海三省两市工业产业结构呈现着明显的重工业化特色,从某种程度上说,工业结构的差异性不明显。
(2)以Leontief提出的投入产出技术为基础,将不同区域相同年度的投入产出表加工整合,构建了环渤海地区区域投入产出模型,为研究环渤海地区产业关联提供理论基础。
(3)以环渤海地区区域投入产出模型为基础,分析了环渤海地区典型重工业的发展趋势以及发展对其他工业部门的波及效果。研究发现,环渤海地区石化产业、钢铁产业和装备制造业的波及效果较大的产业都集中在重工业领域,尤其以三者相互之间的波及效果最为显著,从而形成区域重工业内部自循环。
(4)从列昂惕夫逆矩阵和工业化发展阶段两个角度对环渤海地区工业结构关联效应进行了情景分析,为环渤海地区工业能源消耗量、废水排放量的情景分析提供基础。
(5)分析了工业结构与能源消耗、水环境污染的关系,并模拟所设定的3种情景下能源消耗量以及工业废水排放量的变化情况。结果显示,转型情景下,受产业波及影响所需要额外消耗的能源量以及工业废水的排放量最少,而加速情景和基准情景下,相反则较多。
(6)最后通过前文分析得出的结论以及相关的统计数据和文献资料,针对环渤海地区工业产业结构中存在的问题提出工业结构调整建议。
Industry as the rapid and stable development of the national economy has made important contributions, but with the development of industry, energy consumption and pollution of the water environment is also increasing.As the largest economic region in northern China, Bohai Rim becomes the third of China's economic growth poles after the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta which has an extremely important position in China's economic development. Currently, Bohai Rim is in the later stages of industrialization and industry is still the main force promoting regional economic development. Recently, the other four provinces except capital Beijing have caught large industrial projects. Heavy chemical projects, such as petrochemical, steel,coal, ships, heavy machinery, are widely lie out along the Bohai coast. Industrial structure of Bohai Rim is seriously inclind to heavy industry. In the long run, the way of economic growth with high input, high pollution and high energy consumption is unsustainable doomed to pay huge environmental price. As a direct influence of Bohai environment, the social and economic activities of Bohai Rim will affect Bohai sea environment, which puts Bohai under huge environmental pressure. Therefore, study the industrial structure of Bohai Rim and promote the regional industrial structure rationalization and advancement has practical significance for regional economy rapid development.The contents and conclusions are as follows:
(1) Based on MRIO model, the interregional input-output model of Bohai Rim is established and the interregional industrial relationship of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning and Shandong are also analyzed. Results show that industrial structure of Bohai Rim obtains an obvious characteristic in heavy industrialization and no significant difference in the industrial structure is found between any two regions.
(2) On the basis of Leontief's input-output technology, Input-Output Tables of different region but of the same year are integrated to establish the interregional input-output model of Bohai Rim, providing theoretical foundations for industrial relationship study of Bohai Rim.
(3) Interregional input-output model of Bohai Rim as the base, development trend of typical heavy industry of Bohai Rim and their industrial affection on other industrial sectors are analyzed. Study has found out that industries on which the petrochemical industry, steel industry, and equipment manufacturing industry have the significant industrial affection are centralized in heavy industry. It is also found that mutual industrial affections among these typical industries are the most significant, forming the self-circulation within regional heavy industry.
(4) Scenario analyses of industrial structure correlation effect of Bohai Rim are carried out from two perspectives:the Leontief inverse matrix and the stage of industrialization, providing basis for the scenario analysis of industrial energy consumption and that of industrial wastewater discharge.
(5) Relationships of industrial structure and energy consumption, water environmental pollution have been analyzed, and relevant energy consumption and industrial wastewater discharge in three situations are simulated. Results show that under the baseline scenario,, the extra energy consumption and the extra industrial wastewater discharge required by the industrial affection are the least, while those are relatively greater under accelerated transformation scenario and linear growth scenario.
(6) Finally, based on the conclusions above and relevant statistical data and document literature, proposals for industrial structure adjustment are put forward against the existing problems in industrial structure of Bohai Rim
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