工程建设项目成本—进度挣值方法的改进与应用研究
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摘要
工程建设项目具有不可逆的特点,它是从项目投资设想、设计、筹资、直到建成、运营过程中的重要环节,项目建设的效果直接影响项目未来效益的好坏,因此,为了圆满实现项目目标,项目建设过程监控至关重要。在项目管理的目标系统中,质量、进度、成本都是重要的目标。本文将质量目标作为成本与进度的目标的前提,以成本-进度联合监控绩效评价的挣值法为研究对象,在对项目成本-进度联合监控的理论方法和实现技术相关文献进行全面阅读和研究的基础上,针对传统挣值分析方法在理论模型与项目管理实践中存在的问题,做了以下几方面研究:
首先,提出多级挣值管理思想,细化了成本超支(结余)、进度拖延(超前)问题的分析结构,避免了因不同工序的正负偏差引起的总偏差抵消;对工程单价的进一步分解更是区分了影响项目管理的市场因素和工艺因素,为管理者提供了更为翔实、准确的层级控制决策信息;
其次,针对项目建设管理中信息不完备、发展的趋势和结果无法准确判断的现实,提出随机模拟不确定挣值法,考虑随机不确定性、模糊不确定性、未确知不确定性三类不确定因素,为项目管理风险决策提供可靠的依据;
最后,论文研究了成本-进度偏差对项目的影响,建立项目成本-进度监测预警系统,划分预警区间和控制区间,对不同强度的偏差信息采取不予理会、调整控制和修改计划三类处理方式。该预警监控方法随项目的逐步完成,不断修正偏差的预警上下界和控制上下界,保证了项目随目标的接近,绩效监控越来越精确,从而有效保障计划的执行。
本文的研究为现有项目监控绩效评价的挣值理论模型提供了新的扩展,使管理者不仅了解项目整体成本-进度进展情况,还能清晰地了解子项目的执行绩效,改善工程项目成本-进度监控的水平。研究与项目管理实践相结合,与项目管理软件应用相结合,使得论文研究成果不仅在理论上有所创新,在项目管理实践中也具有较强指导意义。
Construction projects is irreversible and a critical part in the whole process from project visualization, designing, and financing until project completion and operation. The effect of project construction directly affects the future payoff of the project. Therefore, monitoring on the process of project construction is essential for achieving the project objectives. Quality, schedule, and cost are important goals among a system of goals of projects. In this paper, Quality goal is set as the precondition for cost and schedule goal and Earned Value Method for the schedule-cost joint monitoring performance evaluation is set as our study target. On the basis of comprehensive study on relevant literatures of the project cost-schedule joint monitoring theory and practical technique, the following studies have been carried out on the existing problems in the application of the traditional Earned Value Method in the theoretical model and project management.
Firstly, a Multi-level Earned Value Management model is put forward, which offers more details for the cause of delay (advance) and cost overruns (cost savings), and help avoid the aggregate mistake of positive deviation and negative deviation in different subprojects. The further breakdown of project unit price distinguished the market factor and technical factor which have effects on project management. These improvements give supervisors more accurate information for making decision.
Secondly, in order to cope with the problems of incomplete information and inaccurate estimation of development trend and outcome, a stochastic simulation Earned Value method under uncertainty is put forward, which can give a reliable decision tool for risk analysis and decision. In this method, three uncertain factors are considered, that is, stochastic factor, fuzzy factor, and unascertained factor.
Finally, we studied the impact of cost-schedule deviation on project, established the project warning system for cost-schedule monitoring, set the warning area and control area, and took three ways to handle deviation with different intensity such as ignoring, tuning control, and amending plan. This warning and monitoring system gradually adjusts the warning upper and lower boundary and the monitoring upper and lower boundary along with the project completion so as to assure the accuracy of performance monitoring and the successful execution of the project plan when the project approaches the target.
This study offered an extension to the current Earned Value theoretical model for the project monitoring performance evaluation. Through our new model, supervisors not only master the whole status of the project cost-schedule progress, but also understand the performance of subprojects so as to improve monitoring capability of cost-schedule in projects. Combining research and project management practice, and research and project management software application, this study not only comes up with some theoretical innovation, but also has the great significance of steering project management practice.
首先,提出多级挣值管理思想,细化了成本超支(结余)、进度拖延(超前)问题的分析结构,避免了因不同工序的正负偏差引起的总偏差抵消;对工程单价的进一步分解更是区分了影响项目管理的市场因素和工艺因素,为管理者提供了更为翔实、准确的层级控制决策信息;
其次,针对项目建设管理中信息不完备、发展的趋势和结果无法准确判断的现实,提出随机模拟不确定挣值法,考虑随机不确定性、模糊不确定性、未确知不确定性三类不确定因素,为项目管理风险决策提供可靠的依据;
最后,论文研究了成本-进度偏差对项目的影响,建立项目成本-进度监测预警系统,划分预警区间和控制区间,对不同强度的偏差信息采取不予理会、调整控制和修改计划三类处理方式。该预警监控方法随项目的逐步完成,不断修正偏差的预警上下界和控制上下界,保证了项目随目标的接近,绩效监控越来越精确,从而有效保障计划的执行。
本文的研究为现有项目监控绩效评价的挣值理论模型提供了新的扩展,使管理者不仅了解项目整体成本-进度进展情况,还能清晰地了解子项目的执行绩效,改善工程项目成本-进度监控的水平。研究与项目管理实践相结合,与项目管理软件应用相结合,使得论文研究成果不仅在理论上有所创新,在项目管理实践中也具有较强指导意义。
Construction projects is irreversible and a critical part in the whole process from project visualization, designing, and financing until project completion and operation. The effect of project construction directly affects the future payoff of the project. Therefore, monitoring on the process of project construction is essential for achieving the project objectives. Quality, schedule, and cost are important goals among a system of goals of projects. In this paper, Quality goal is set as the precondition for cost and schedule goal and Earned Value Method for the schedule-cost joint monitoring performance evaluation is set as our study target. On the basis of comprehensive study on relevant literatures of the project cost-schedule joint monitoring theory and practical technique, the following studies have been carried out on the existing problems in the application of the traditional Earned Value Method in the theoretical model and project management.
Firstly, a Multi-level Earned Value Management model is put forward, which offers more details for the cause of delay (advance) and cost overruns (cost savings), and help avoid the aggregate mistake of positive deviation and negative deviation in different subprojects. The further breakdown of project unit price distinguished the market factor and technical factor which have effects on project management. These improvements give supervisors more accurate information for making decision.
Secondly, in order to cope with the problems of incomplete information and inaccurate estimation of development trend and outcome, a stochastic simulation Earned Value method under uncertainty is put forward, which can give a reliable decision tool for risk analysis and decision. In this method, three uncertain factors are considered, that is, stochastic factor, fuzzy factor, and unascertained factor.
Finally, we studied the impact of cost-schedule deviation on project, established the project warning system for cost-schedule monitoring, set the warning area and control area, and took three ways to handle deviation with different intensity such as ignoring, tuning control, and amending plan. This warning and monitoring system gradually adjusts the warning upper and lower boundary and the monitoring upper and lower boundary along with the project completion so as to assure the accuracy of performance monitoring and the successful execution of the project plan when the project approaches the target.
This study offered an extension to the current Earned Value theoretical model for the project monitoring performance evaluation. Through our new model, supervisors not only master the whole status of the project cost-schedule progress, but also understand the performance of subprojects so as to improve monitoring capability of cost-schedule in projects. Combining research and project management practice, and research and project management software application, this study not only comes up with some theoretical innovation, but also has the great significance of steering project management practice.
引文
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