供应商价格变动的波及效应研究
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摘要
进入21世纪后,随着经济的快速全球化,企业之间的竞争已经由单纯实力比拼发展到企业所在的供应链之间的竞争。而供应链上的各节点是环环相扣的,任何一个节点发生变化,都会波及其他节点,影响整个供应链的正常运作。为了全面涵盖供应链中所有的系统特性,在更宽广的范围内对供应链进行深入研究。本文引入波及效应理论,系统研究供应链中某特定要素变动对于整个供应链系统的影响。
作为一种理论体系,波及效应理论还在不断的完善之中。国内外现存的供应链方向的研究成果有相当一部分还集中在牛鞭效应,而本论文悖牛鞭效应而行,从供应链最上游的供应商价格出发,研究其变动对于下游节点以及整个供应链系统的波及过程。本文基于对定价策略和波及效应的研究,针对二级供应链和三级供应链,分别建立各节点企业及系统的利润模型,进而描述相同定价策略下供应商价格的波及过程,及对下游节点企业的影响,并对供应商价格波动的幅度与数量进行仿真。通过仿真分析,运用节点利润变化情况来衡量的供应商价格的波及效应的大小;进一步对不同定价策略下的波及效应进行横向比较,得出各节点企业和供应链系统不同定价策略的波及效应大小排序;根据波及效应大小排序,提出节点企业和供应链系统在面对供应商价格波动应作出的应对决策。论文在供应商价格不确定的情况下,为企业衡量价格与利润的波动幅度提供了依据,不但具有学术理论意义,而且也具有现实指导意义。
After entering the 21st century, as the rapid globalization of economy, the competition of enterprises has turned into the competition focusing on supply chain from individuals. Every node in the supply chain is so closely linked to another that the change of any node will affect the others as well as the normal operation of entire supply chain. To cover all the system performances of supply chain comprehensively and to study supply chain in a broader scope, this paper introduces Ripple Effect theory and studies the effect of some specific essential factor change on the entire supply chain system.
As a new theory system, the Ripple Effect theory has been improved unceasingly. Quite a part of present research results of supply chain both at home and abroad focus on the Bullwhip Effect. Starting from the upstream supplier price of the supply chain, opposite to Bullwhip Effect, this paper studies the effect process of the upstream supplier price change on the downstream nodes as well as the entire supply chain system. Based on the study of pricing strategy and Ripple Effect, this paper establishes the profit models of each node enterprise as well as the entire system separately for two-level supply chain and three-level supply chain. Then this paper describes the effect process of supplier price under different pricing strategies and carries on the simulation to the scope and amount of supplier price fluctuations. Through the simulation analysis, the extent of node profit change is used to measure the ripple effect of supplier price. Further, a horizontal comparison of the Ripple Effect under different pricing strategies is carried on to sort the Ripple Effect of each node enterprise and the entire supply chain system under different pricing strategies. According to the sorting, appropriate decisions are presented for node enterprises and the entire supply chain system facing the supplier price fluctuations. This paper provides theoretical references for enterprise measuring the price and profit fluctuations in the case that supplier price is indefinite. The research achievement of this paper has not only stronge academic importance but also practical significance.
作为一种理论体系,波及效应理论还在不断的完善之中。国内外现存的供应链方向的研究成果有相当一部分还集中在牛鞭效应,而本论文悖牛鞭效应而行,从供应链最上游的供应商价格出发,研究其变动对于下游节点以及整个供应链系统的波及过程。本文基于对定价策略和波及效应的研究,针对二级供应链和三级供应链,分别建立各节点企业及系统的利润模型,进而描述相同定价策略下供应商价格的波及过程,及对下游节点企业的影响,并对供应商价格波动的幅度与数量进行仿真。通过仿真分析,运用节点利润变化情况来衡量的供应商价格的波及效应的大小;进一步对不同定价策略下的波及效应进行横向比较,得出各节点企业和供应链系统不同定价策略的波及效应大小排序;根据波及效应大小排序,提出节点企业和供应链系统在面对供应商价格波动应作出的应对决策。论文在供应商价格不确定的情况下,为企业衡量价格与利润的波动幅度提供了依据,不但具有学术理论意义,而且也具有现实指导意义。
After entering the 21st century, as the rapid globalization of economy, the competition of enterprises has turned into the competition focusing on supply chain from individuals. Every node in the supply chain is so closely linked to another that the change of any node will affect the others as well as the normal operation of entire supply chain. To cover all the system performances of supply chain comprehensively and to study supply chain in a broader scope, this paper introduces Ripple Effect theory and studies the effect of some specific essential factor change on the entire supply chain system.
As a new theory system, the Ripple Effect theory has been improved unceasingly. Quite a part of present research results of supply chain both at home and abroad focus on the Bullwhip Effect. Starting from the upstream supplier price of the supply chain, opposite to Bullwhip Effect, this paper studies the effect process of the upstream supplier price change on the downstream nodes as well as the entire supply chain system. Based on the study of pricing strategy and Ripple Effect, this paper establishes the profit models of each node enterprise as well as the entire system separately for two-level supply chain and three-level supply chain. Then this paper describes the effect process of supplier price under different pricing strategies and carries on the simulation to the scope and amount of supplier price fluctuations. Through the simulation analysis, the extent of node profit change is used to measure the ripple effect of supplier price. Further, a horizontal comparison of the Ripple Effect under different pricing strategies is carried on to sort the Ripple Effect of each node enterprise and the entire supply chain system under different pricing strategies. According to the sorting, appropriate decisions are presented for node enterprises and the entire supply chain system facing the supplier price fluctuations. This paper provides theoretical references for enterprise measuring the price and profit fluctuations in the case that supplier price is indefinite. The research achievement of this paper has not only stronge academic importance but also practical significance.
引文
1 Waugh. V. Quality Factors Influencing Vegetable Prices. Journal of Far Economics, 1928, 10, 185-196
2 Rmana. K, Chatterjee R. Optimal monopolist Pricing under demand uncertainty in dynamic markets. Management Science, 1995, 41(1): 144-162
3 Roy A, Hnassens D. M, Raju J S. Competitive Pricing by a Price leader. Management Science, 1994, 40(7): 809-823
4 Bella Belegradek, Konstnatinos Kalpakis, Yelena Yesha. Maximizing Seller's Profit for Electronic Commerce. TREC, 98, LNCS1402, 1998: 26-38
5 Naoki Abe, Tomonari Kmaba. A web marketing system with automatic Pricing. Computer Networks, 2000(33): 775-788
6 Abad PL. Optimal Pricing and lot-sizing under conditions of Perish ability and partial backordering. Management Science, 1996(42): 1093-1104
7 Salant. Imperfect Competition in the International Energy Market: A Computerized Nash-Cournot Mode. 1979
8 Anupindi R., Akella R., Diversification under supply uncertainty. Management Science. 1993, (8)39: 944-963
9 Marie N., Fagan Resource depletion and technical change: Effects on U. S. crude oil findingcosts from 1977 to 1994. Energy Journal, 1995, 18(4): 91-95
10 Stephen Haber, Noel Maurer, Armando Razo. When the Law Does Not Matter: The Rise and Decline of the Mexican Oil Industry Journal of Economic History, Vol 63. No. 1
11 Engle R. F, Granger C. J. Cointegration and Error correction: Representation. Estimation and Testing Econometrical. 1987,55: 119-139
12 Granger C.W. Spurious Regression in Econometrics, Journal of Econometrics. 1974, (2): 111-120
13 Carlos J. Vidal, Marc Goetschalckx, A global supply chain model with transfer pricing and transportation cost allocation, European journal of operational research. 2001, (129): 134-158
14 Susan C. Borkowski, An Analysis(Meta-and Otherwise) of Multinational Transfer Pricing Research. The International Journal of Accounting. 2000, (6): 122-136
15 Bhattacharjee, Sudip, Rarnesh, R. A mufti-period profit maximizing model for retail supply chain management: An integration of demand and supply-side mechanisms. European Journal of Operational Research, 2000, 5: 584-601
16 Shirring Deng, Candace A. Yano. Joint Production and Pricing Decisions with Setup Costs and Capacity Constraints. Management Science, 2006, 5, 741-756
17 Vernon Ning Hsu, Chung Yee Lee, Kut C. So. Optimal Component Stocking Policy for Assemble-to-Order Systems with Lead-Time-Dependent Component and Product Pricing. Management Science, 2006, 3, 0337-0351
18牟德一,涂莑生,陈秋生.制造商－零售商供应链的联合定价决策模型.南开大学学报(自然科学版). 2004, 37(3): 32~36
19顾巧论,高铁杠,石连栓.基于博弈论的逆向供应链定价策略分析.系统工程理论与实践. 2005, 3: 51~53
20马士华,林勇,陈志祥.供应链管理.北京:机械工业出版社. 2000
21 Chen hong, Zhao rui, The analysis of supply-chain's ripple effect. International Conference on Global Supply Chain Management.2002, (2): 75-78
22 Chen Hong, Li Li, Wang jin-fa. Quantifying the Ripple Effect in the Supply Chain and Generally Describing the Bullwhip effect. Proceedings of 2004 international conference on management science & engineering. 2004, 967-972
23陈宏,韩轶,间接经济效益的波及效应和摄动效应分析.管理科学学报, 2002, 5(4): 68~76
24陈跃刚,甘永辉,我国产业间波及效应探讨.南昌大学学报(人文社会科学版), 2004, 6(5):53~54
25王秀清,钱小平, 1981-2000年中国农产品价格上涨的波及效应.中国农村经济, 2004, 5(2): 28~34
26刘希宋,陈蕊,石油价格对国民经济波及效应研究.经济师, 2004, 8(3): 12~16
27郭菊娥,邢公奇,何建武.黄河流域水资源价格与总产值变动的波及效应分析.技术经济与管理研究, 2004, 2(2): 68~69
28李欢,供应链风险的波及效应研究.成都:电子科技大学. 2004, (6): 33~37
29 A Surana, S Kumara. Supply chain networks: a complex adaptive systems perspective. International Journal of Production Research. 2005, (11): 67-72
30 Marshall L, Drezner Z, Ryan. K, David Simchi-Levi. Quantifying the bullwhip effete in a Simple supply chain: The impact of forecasting, delay times, and information. Management Science , 2000, 46; 436-443
31 J. W. Forrester, Industrial Dynamics, MIT Press and John Wiley & Sons. Inc. New York. 1961, (3): 112-115
32 Towill D. R. Supply Chain Dynamics. International Journal of Computer Integrated Manufacturing. 1991,4(3): 197-208
33 Burbridge J. L. Automated Production control with asimulation capability.Proceeding of the International Federation for Information Processing Conference, WGS-7CoPenhange. 1984: 1-11
34 Chen F, Drezner Z. Quantifying the bullwhip effect in a simple supply chain: The impact of forecasting, lead times and information. Management Science. 2000, 46: 436-443
35 Lee, H. L., Padmanabhan, V., &Whang, S, Information Distortion in A supply Chain: The Bullwhip Effect. Management Science. 1997, 43(4): 546-558
36龚本刚,程幼明.供应链中“牛鞭效应”的成因及弱化.运筹与管理. 2002, 10: 55~58
37范璐.长鞭效应及其影响因素的定量研究.成都电子科技大学管理学院硕士论文. 2004: 24~29管理. 2000, 4: 33~38 Chun-WeiR. Lin, Hong-YiS. Chen. A fuzzy strategic alliance selection framework for supply chain partnering under limited evaluation resources. Computers in Industry. 2004, 55: 159-179
39 Carol Prahinski, W. C. Benton. Supplier evaluations: communication strategies to improve supplier performance Journal of Operations Management. 2004, 22: 39-62
40马新安,张列平,冯芸.供应链合作伙伴关系与合作伙伴选择.工业工程与管理. 2000, 4: 33~36
41万泽滢.价值链与供应链在价值系统中的整合.浙江社会科学. 2001, 3:58~60
42谢君,胡容兵.供应链的合作伙伴选择方法综述.价值工程. 2005, 1: 43~46
43刘蓉,张毕西,廖朝辉.供应链合作伙伴的选择、评估和动态监控明.系统工程. 2005, 23(5): 51~54
44吴隽,张剑英,任丽娟.基于证据推理与粗集理论的供应链合作伙伴选择方法研究.中国软科学. 2005, (5): 130~133
45 Daniel R. Krause, Thomas V. Scannell, Roger J. Calantone. A Structural Analysis of the Effectiveness of Buying Firms' Strategies to Improve Supplier Performance. Decision Sciences. 2000, 31(1): 33-55
46 VR Kannan, K. C. Tan. Supplier selection and assessment: Their impact on business performance. The Journal of Supply Chain Management. 2002, 22: 39-62
47 Dyer J H, etal. Strategic Supplier Segmentation: the Next "Best Practice" in Supply Chain Management. California Management Review. 1998, 40(2) : 57-77
48 Masaaki Kotabe, Xavier Martin, Hiroshi Domoto. Gaining from verticalpartnerships: knowledge transfer, relationship duration and supplier performance improvement in the U. S. and Japanese automotive industries. Strategic Management Journal, 2003, 24: 293-316
49李华焰,马士华,林勇.基于供应链管理的合作伙伴选择问题初探.管理现代化. 2000, 3: 27~3
50刘丽文.企业供需链管理的实施策略探讨.计算机集成制造. 2000, 6(2): 15~18
51 Wang Y, Gerchak Y. Supply chain coordination when demand is shelf-space dependent. Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, 2001, 3(1): 82-87
52 Benita MB. Supply chain design and analysis: models and methods. Int. J. Production Economics. 1998(55):281-294
2 Rmana. K, Chatterjee R. Optimal monopolist Pricing under demand uncertainty in dynamic markets. Management Science, 1995, 41(1): 144-162
3 Roy A, Hnassens D. M, Raju J S. Competitive Pricing by a Price leader. Management Science, 1994, 40(7): 809-823
4 Bella Belegradek, Konstnatinos Kalpakis, Yelena Yesha. Maximizing Seller's Profit for Electronic Commerce. TREC, 98, LNCS1402, 1998: 26-38
5 Naoki Abe, Tomonari Kmaba. A web marketing system with automatic Pricing. Computer Networks, 2000(33): 775-788
6 Abad PL. Optimal Pricing and lot-sizing under conditions of Perish ability and partial backordering. Management Science, 1996(42): 1093-1104
7 Salant. Imperfect Competition in the International Energy Market: A Computerized Nash-Cournot Mode. 1979
8 Anupindi R., Akella R., Diversification under supply uncertainty. Management Science. 1993, (8)39: 944-963
9 Marie N., Fagan Resource depletion and technical change: Effects on U. S. crude oil findingcosts from 1977 to 1994. Energy Journal, 1995, 18(4): 91-95
10 Stephen Haber, Noel Maurer, Armando Razo. When the Law Does Not Matter: The Rise and Decline of the Mexican Oil Industry Journal of Economic History, Vol 63. No. 1
11 Engle R. F, Granger C. J. Cointegration and Error correction: Representation. Estimation and Testing Econometrical. 1987,55: 119-139
12 Granger C.W. Spurious Regression in Econometrics, Journal of Econometrics. 1974, (2): 111-120
13 Carlos J. Vidal, Marc Goetschalckx, A global supply chain model with transfer pricing and transportation cost allocation, European journal of operational research. 2001, (129): 134-158
14 Susan C. Borkowski, An Analysis(Meta-and Otherwise) of Multinational Transfer Pricing Research. The International Journal of Accounting. 2000, (6): 122-136
15 Bhattacharjee, Sudip, Rarnesh, R. A mufti-period profit maximizing model for retail supply chain management: An integration of demand and supply-side mechanisms. European Journal of Operational Research, 2000, 5: 584-601
16 Shirring Deng, Candace A. Yano. Joint Production and Pricing Decisions with Setup Costs and Capacity Constraints. Management Science, 2006, 5, 741-756
17 Vernon Ning Hsu, Chung Yee Lee, Kut C. So. Optimal Component Stocking Policy for Assemble-to-Order Systems with Lead-Time-Dependent Component and Product Pricing. Management Science, 2006, 3, 0337-0351
18牟德一,涂莑生,陈秋生.制造商－零售商供应链的联合定价决策模型.南开大学学报(自然科学版). 2004, 37(3): 32~36
19顾巧论,高铁杠,石连栓.基于博弈论的逆向供应链定价策略分析.系统工程理论与实践. 2005, 3: 51~53
20马士华,林勇,陈志祥.供应链管理.北京:机械工业出版社. 2000
21 Chen hong, Zhao rui, The analysis of supply-chain's ripple effect. International Conference on Global Supply Chain Management.2002, (2): 75-78
22 Chen Hong, Li Li, Wang jin-fa. Quantifying the Ripple Effect in the Supply Chain and Generally Describing the Bullwhip effect. Proceedings of 2004 international conference on management science & engineering. 2004, 967-972
23陈宏,韩轶,间接经济效益的波及效应和摄动效应分析.管理科学学报, 2002, 5(4): 68~76
24陈跃刚,甘永辉,我国产业间波及效应探讨.南昌大学学报(人文社会科学版), 2004, 6(5):53~54
25王秀清,钱小平, 1981-2000年中国农产品价格上涨的波及效应.中国农村经济, 2004, 5(2): 28~34
26刘希宋,陈蕊,石油价格对国民经济波及效应研究.经济师, 2004, 8(3): 12~16
27郭菊娥,邢公奇,何建武.黄河流域水资源价格与总产值变动的波及效应分析.技术经济与管理研究, 2004, 2(2): 68~69
28李欢,供应链风险的波及效应研究.成都:电子科技大学. 2004, (6): 33~37
29 A Surana, S Kumara. Supply chain networks: a complex adaptive systems perspective. International Journal of Production Research. 2005, (11): 67-72
30 Marshall L, Drezner Z, Ryan. K, David Simchi-Levi. Quantifying the bullwhip effete in a Simple supply chain: The impact of forecasting, delay times, and information. Management Science , 2000, 46; 436-443
31 J. W. Forrester, Industrial Dynamics, MIT Press and John Wiley & Sons. Inc. New York. 1961, (3): 112-115
32 Towill D. R. Supply Chain Dynamics. International Journal of Computer Integrated Manufacturing. 1991,4(3): 197-208
33 Burbridge J. L. Automated Production control with asimulation capability.Proceeding of the International Federation for Information Processing Conference, WGS-7CoPenhange. 1984: 1-11
34 Chen F, Drezner Z. Quantifying the bullwhip effect in a simple supply chain: The impact of forecasting, lead times and information. Management Science. 2000, 46: 436-443
35 Lee, H. L., Padmanabhan, V., &Whang, S, Information Distortion in A supply Chain: The Bullwhip Effect. Management Science. 1997, 43(4): 546-558
36龚本刚,程幼明.供应链中“牛鞭效应”的成因及弱化.运筹与管理. 2002, 10: 55~58
37范璐.长鞭效应及其影响因素的定量研究.成都电子科技大学管理学院硕士论文. 2004: 24~29管理. 2000, 4: 33~38 Chun-WeiR. Lin, Hong-YiS. Chen. A fuzzy strategic alliance selection framework for supply chain partnering under limited evaluation resources. Computers in Industry. 2004, 55: 159-179
39 Carol Prahinski, W. C. Benton. Supplier evaluations: communication strategies to improve supplier performance Journal of Operations Management. 2004, 22: 39-62
40马新安,张列平,冯芸.供应链合作伙伴关系与合作伙伴选择.工业工程与管理. 2000, 4: 33~36
41万泽滢.价值链与供应链在价值系统中的整合.浙江社会科学. 2001, 3:58~60
42谢君,胡容兵.供应链的合作伙伴选择方法综述.价值工程. 2005, 1: 43~46
43刘蓉,张毕西,廖朝辉.供应链合作伙伴的选择、评估和动态监控明.系统工程. 2005, 23(5): 51~54
44吴隽,张剑英,任丽娟.基于证据推理与粗集理论的供应链合作伙伴选择方法研究.中国软科学. 2005, (5): 130~133
45 Daniel R. Krause, Thomas V. Scannell, Roger J. Calantone. A Structural Analysis of the Effectiveness of Buying Firms' Strategies to Improve Supplier Performance. Decision Sciences. 2000, 31(1): 33-55
46 VR Kannan, K. C. Tan. Supplier selection and assessment: Their impact on business performance. The Journal of Supply Chain Management. 2002, 22: 39-62
47 Dyer J H, etal. Strategic Supplier Segmentation: the Next "Best Practice" in Supply Chain Management. California Management Review. 1998, 40(2) : 57-77
48 Masaaki Kotabe, Xavier Martin, Hiroshi Domoto. Gaining from verticalpartnerships: knowledge transfer, relationship duration and supplier performance improvement in the U. S. and Japanese automotive industries. Strategic Management Journal, 2003, 24: 293-316
49李华焰,马士华,林勇.基于供应链管理的合作伙伴选择问题初探.管理现代化. 2000, 3: 27~3
50刘丽文.企业供需链管理的实施策略探讨.计算机集成制造. 2000, 6(2): 15~18
51 Wang Y, Gerchak Y. Supply chain coordination when demand is shelf-space dependent. Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, 2001, 3(1): 82-87
52 Benita MB. Supply chain design and analysis: models and methods. Int. J. Production Economics. 1998(55):281-294