长江水上交通安全评价指标体系研究
摘要
安全是人类永恒的主题,安全生产是社会文明和进步的重要标志。党和国家有关方针政策明确提出要“高度重视安全生产,保护国家财产和人民生命的安全”。对于交通运输而言,以水上交通事故为例,由于具有群死群伤,污染水域等灾害特性,安全更是其第一特性。水上交通安全是一项庞大的系统工程,建立相应的安全长效管理机制,是当前政府主管部门面临的一项紧迫任务,而系统、合理、准确地评价水上交通安全状况则是保证安全长效机制顺利开展的一项重要基础工作。
自上世纪七、八十年代来,中外的水上交通安全研究专家学者和实践工作者对水上交通安全问题进行了深入广泛的研究。近十年来,事故树分析法、模糊数学、灰色理论、人工神经网络、FSA等理论也逐渐被广泛地用于对事故的分析与评估工作,并有效地对船舶的事故模式进行了识别和评估。
在中国,随着水上运输的不断发展,水上交通安全评估分析的方法渐渐从定性和经验为主向定量分析转变,并广泛引入了系统工程理论和人工智能,模式识别、专家系统等技术对水上交通系统的安全问题进行了分析研究。五项指标法、水上交通安全综合评估法、安全指数法、综合安全指数法、安全状况分析法等均在不同历史时期产生过积极的作用。
这些工作在当时环境下,不仅解决了许多实际问题,而且对后继的研究工作起到了非常大的促进作用。但也应该看到,这些量化研究主要体现在对安全状态的时序量的研究,偏重于海事管理,不能涵括水上交通安全的整体状况,其中有些要素在通航状况变化日新月异的情况下,许多影响因子的设定与实际情况发展存在不适应的现象,在预测性,实时性等方面存在不足,难以与现状进行有机的联系,使得评价工作落后于长江航运发展,失去了评价的客观性和指导性。通俗地说,许多评价体系面临着难以对下面两个问题给出满意答案:水上交通事故是否就仅仅是海事管理不力的责任?水上交通管理其他主管部门对交通事故的责任比例到底应多大?
本文从大系统的角度出发,在可持续发展指标体系研究的基础上,运用压力-状态-响应PSR概念模型建立了长江水上交通安全评价指标体系。
The safety is an eternal topic of the human, and the safe production is the important symbol of social civilization and progress. The related general and specific policies of the Communist Party of China party and country have explicitly proposed "Take the safety in production highly, protect the security of the nation's property and people's life ". Regarding the transportation, the security is its first characteristic.Take the aquatic traffic accident as an example, it has a group of deads and wounds, polluting water and so on. The aquatic traffic safety is a huge system engineering.To establish a long effect system of the safety management is an urgent mission for the government departments. But systematic, is reasonable, accurately appraises the aquatic traffic safety condition then is guarantees the security persistent effect mechanism smooth development an important foundation work. But system, reasonable, evaluate the safe condition of aquatic transportation to guarantee that the safe long effect mechanism opens an important foundation work of the exhibition smoothly accurately.From last century 70's and 80's, the nation and Foreign aquatic transportation safety studies expert's scholar and practices the worker to carried on the thorough extensive research to the safe problem of aquatic transportation. In the last decade, the trouble tree , analysis method, misty mathematics, gray theories, artificial nerve network, FSA etc. ones also gradually drive broadly used for the analysis to the trouble and valuation work, and carried on to identify and evaluate to the trouble mode of the ships availably.In China, develop continuously along with the aquatic conveyance, the aquatic transportation safety evaluates the analytical method gradually from settle nature and experiences as lord to change toward quantitative analysis, and led to go into the system engineering theories and artificial intelligences extensively, the mode identify, the safe problem of technique to aquatic transportation system etc. and the expert system carried on the analytical research. Five method of target, safe comprehensive valuation method, safe index number method of five index sign methods, aquatic transportations, synthesize the safe index number method, safe condition analysis method etc. which in the different history the period creation leads the aggressive
function.At that time, these work not only resolved many actual problems, but also rose to the research work of the subsequence to promote the function very well. But we should see, these quantities turn to study the rriain body now to the research of the cycle time quantity of the safe appearance, over-emphasize to the manage of the maritime affairs, can not include the whole condition of the aquatic transportation safety, among them some main factor under the condition that the navigation condition changes to change with each passing day, many enactments of influence factor exist with actual circumstance development not the phenomenon that adapt, at predict nature, solid hour etc. the aspect existence shortage, and is hard to carry on the organic contact with present condition, make evaluation work to get behind with shipping development of Yangtze River, that lose the evaluation and guide which is objective. Generally speaking, many evaluation systems face the difficult to give the following two problems satisfied answers. Is the aquatic traffic accident only the responsibility of the maritime management? What is the proportion of the responsibility of other aquatic transportation management departments to traffic accidents ?This text embarks from the angle of the large-scale system.On the foundation of the sustainable development target system research, it establishes the aquatic traffic safety appraisal target system of Changjiang River, using the pressure- appearance-responded ------PSR concept model PSR conceptual model.Combining comprehensive expert's opinions on the foundation of full investigation, this test chooses some appraisal targets with good abilities and strong feasibilities. Use the AHP analysis method to endow with power for appraisal target the comprehensive weight, and draw up the procedure to compute the comprehensive power of evaluate the index sign heavy, finally carry on the evaluation to the safe condition of aquatic transportation in Changjiang River with the comprehensive index number method.
自上世纪七、八十年代来,中外的水上交通安全研究专家学者和实践工作者对水上交通安全问题进行了深入广泛的研究。近十年来,事故树分析法、模糊数学、灰色理论、人工神经网络、FSA等理论也逐渐被广泛地用于对事故的分析与评估工作,并有效地对船舶的事故模式进行了识别和评估。
在中国,随着水上运输的不断发展,水上交通安全评估分析的方法渐渐从定性和经验为主向定量分析转变,并广泛引入了系统工程理论和人工智能,模式识别、专家系统等技术对水上交通系统的安全问题进行了分析研究。五项指标法、水上交通安全综合评估法、安全指数法、综合安全指数法、安全状况分析法等均在不同历史时期产生过积极的作用。
这些工作在当时环境下,不仅解决了许多实际问题,而且对后继的研究工作起到了非常大的促进作用。但也应该看到,这些量化研究主要体现在对安全状态的时序量的研究,偏重于海事管理,不能涵括水上交通安全的整体状况,其中有些要素在通航状况变化日新月异的情况下,许多影响因子的设定与实际情况发展存在不适应的现象,在预测性,实时性等方面存在不足,难以与现状进行有机的联系,使得评价工作落后于长江航运发展,失去了评价的客观性和指导性。通俗地说,许多评价体系面临着难以对下面两个问题给出满意答案:水上交通事故是否就仅仅是海事管理不力的责任?水上交通管理其他主管部门对交通事故的责任比例到底应多大?
本文从大系统的角度出发,在可持续发展指标体系研究的基础上,运用压力-状态-响应PSR概念模型建立了长江水上交通安全评价指标体系。
The safety is an eternal topic of the human, and the safe production is the important symbol of social civilization and progress. The related general and specific policies of the Communist Party of China party and country have explicitly proposed "Take the safety in production highly, protect the security of the nation's property and people's life ". Regarding the transportation, the security is its first characteristic.Take the aquatic traffic accident as an example, it has a group of deads and wounds, polluting water and so on. The aquatic traffic safety is a huge system engineering.To establish a long effect system of the safety management is an urgent mission for the government departments. But systematic, is reasonable, accurately appraises the aquatic traffic safety condition then is guarantees the security persistent effect mechanism smooth development an important foundation work. But system, reasonable, evaluate the safe condition of aquatic transportation to guarantee that the safe long effect mechanism opens an important foundation work of the exhibition smoothly accurately.From last century 70's and 80's, the nation and Foreign aquatic transportation safety studies expert's scholar and practices the worker to carried on the thorough extensive research to the safe problem of aquatic transportation. In the last decade, the trouble tree , analysis method, misty mathematics, gray theories, artificial nerve network, FSA etc. ones also gradually drive broadly used for the analysis to the trouble and valuation work, and carried on to identify and evaluate to the trouble mode of the ships availably.In China, develop continuously along with the aquatic conveyance, the aquatic transportation safety evaluates the analytical method gradually from settle nature and experiences as lord to change toward quantitative analysis, and led to go into the system engineering theories and artificial intelligences extensively, the mode identify, the safe problem of technique to aquatic transportation system etc. and the expert system carried on the analytical research. Five method of target, safe comprehensive valuation method, safe index number method of five index sign methods, aquatic transportations, synthesize the safe index number method, safe condition analysis method etc. which in the different history the period creation leads the aggressive
function.At that time, these work not only resolved many actual problems, but also rose to the research work of the subsequence to promote the function very well. But we should see, these quantities turn to study the rriain body now to the research of the cycle time quantity of the safe appearance, over-emphasize to the manage of the maritime affairs, can not include the whole condition of the aquatic transportation safety, among them some main factor under the condition that the navigation condition changes to change with each passing day, many enactments of influence factor exist with actual circumstance development not the phenomenon that adapt, at predict nature, solid hour etc. the aspect existence shortage, and is hard to carry on the organic contact with present condition, make evaluation work to get behind with shipping development of Yangtze River, that lose the evaluation and guide which is objective. Generally speaking, many evaluation systems face the difficult to give the following two problems satisfied answers. Is the aquatic traffic accident only the responsibility of the maritime management? What is the proportion of the responsibility of other aquatic transportation management departments to traffic accidents ?This text embarks from the angle of the large-scale system.On the foundation of the sustainable development target system research, it establishes the aquatic traffic safety appraisal target system of Changjiang River, using the pressure- appearance-responded ------PSR concept model PSR conceptual model.Combining comprehensive expert's opinions on the foundation of full investigation, this test chooses some appraisal targets with good abilities and strong feasibilities. Use the AHP analysis method to endow with power for appraisal target the comprehensive weight, and draw up the procedure to compute the comprehensive power of evaluate the index sign heavy, finally carry on the evaluation to the safe condition of aquatic transportation in Changjiang River with the comprehensive index number method.
引文
[1] 1979.
[2] D. Roeleven, M. Kok, H. L. Stipdonk. Inland waterway transport: Modeling the probability of accidents[J]. Safety Science, 1995, 19: 191～202.
[3] Le Blanc, Louis A. and Conway T. Rucks, A cluster analysis of vessel accidents, the Logistics and Transportation Review, Volume 31, Numbed, March 1995, 47-62.
[4] Theodore Sampson, Maritime Risk Analysis and Management—Existing Practices, Existing Needs, World Maritime University, 2000. 7.
[5] Wang jin. the current status and future aspects in formal ship safety assessment, safety science, 2001. 38.
[6] Wang J., Pillay A., Wall A., Loughran C., The latest development in marine safety assessment, Proceeding of the 4th International Conference On Reliability, Maintainability & Safety, May 18-21, 1999, Shanghai, China, 711-719.
[7] Mou Jun-min, Zou Zao-jian, Huang Li-wen, Ji Yong-qing. Study on Pattern of Vessel Accident, Proc. of New S—Tec'2004, Shanghai, China, 2004.10.
[8] LiYong. Developmentofaninlandwaterwaytrans-porteducationandtrainingprograminChinaMScd issertation. Malmo, Sweden: WorldMaritimeUni-versity, 1999: 61～72.
[9] Brown, Lester R. Redefining National Security. World Watch. 1977.
[10] Saaty, T. L. The Analytic Hierarchy Process. McGraw—Hill Company, 1980: 287.
[11] Adamec, D. and R. L. Elsberry, 1985: Numerical Simulations of the Response of Intense Ocean Currents to Atmospheric Forcing. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 15: 273-287.
[12] Annual report of maritime accidents, 1999, Maritime Safety Administration of People's Republic of China. 2001: 454～500.
[13] Guanrong Chen, Yaobin Mao. A symmetric image encryption scheme based on 3D chaotic mat maps[J]. Chaos, solitions&fractals.2002, 5: 501～510.
[14] COSCO ROTTERDAM INSTRCTION BOOK M-103 DATA LOGGER. 100～123.
[15] Zhang Shi-hai, Wu Jian-hua. Study Model of Ship Engine-room. Navigation of China. 2005, (63)2: 25～28.
[16] 黄立文,邓健。自然环境对水上交通安全的影响及对策研究。航海技术,中国航海学会2003年年会优秀论文集。
[17] 齐传新。内河船舶运输安全学。大连:大连海运学院出版社,1990:173—193。
[18] 邱建华。长江水上交通安全状况综合评价方法。武汉理工大学硕士论文,2003.7。
[19] 牟军敏,邹早建,齐传新。数据挖掘技术在内河交通事故分析和预防中的应用。中国航海,2004.1。
[20] 吴兆麟等。海上交通安全评估方法技术研究报告。大连:大连海事大学学报,1997。
[21] 陈伟炯。船舶航行安全的可持续改善途径。交通运输工程学报,2002.9:115—119。
[22] 何焰,由文辉。水环境生态安全预警评价与分析。安全与环境工程,2004.12。
[23] 张家港长江港监局,关于江阴港附近六公里长江船舶交通安全评价试点测算情况的报告,1991。
[24] 刘士奇,王剑平。公路交通安全评价指标体系探讨。北方交通大学学报,1994.12。
[25] 曾畅云,李贵宝,傅桦。水环境安全及其指标体系研究,南水北调与水利科技 2004.8。
[26] 中国科学院资源环境科学信息中心。可持续发展评估指标(体系)、方法及应用研究 2002.9。
[27] 宋剑华。论水上交通安全长效管理机制。中国水运 2004.1。
[28] 宋明祥。浅析开展水上交通安全状况评估。珠江水运 2004.8。
[29] 王宝林。水上交通危险的评估。中国水运 2004.6。
[30] 张翔,夏军。基于压力-状态-响应概念框架的可持续水资源管理指标体系研究[J]。城市环境与城市生态,1999,12(5):23-25。
[31] 叶明海,吴红伟等。水路交通运输安全管理事故防范处理实用手册。
[32] 国家安全生产监督管理局、国家煤矿安全监察局。国家安全生产科技发展规划交通运输建筑等领域研究报告,2003.12。
[33] 范耀天。内河船舶交通安全评价法——危险指数法。交通科技。
[34] 水运交通灾害、事故预警防范搜救处理与监察执法实务全书。宁夏大地音像出版社 2004。
[35] 张凤泉 方瑞祥。交通安全度评价标准及其指标体系变量分析,第四届全国人的可靠性和人-机-环境系统可靠性专题研讨会论文集,2004.9。
[36] 江苏省交通厅。江苏段长江航运的发展与水上安全。中国水运 1994.9。
[37] 陈汉友。长江港航治安的近况及主要任务。武汉交通管理干部学院学报,1994年Z1期。
[38] 沈祥法。初探长江引航安全管理。中国港口,1995.6。
[39] 张若妮。长江航道建设概况。中国水运,1998.2。
[40] 黄强。努力提高三峡通航管理水平。中国水运,1998.6。
[41] 夏保国。长江航运安全与VHF通信。中国水运,1999.9。
[42] 黄忠秀。船舶运输控制系统。北京:人民交通出版社,2000.270～3302。
[43] 李勇。内河船舶航行安全保障设备系统(AIS)。交通科技,2000,(增刊):20～213。
[44] 谭孝福。关于长江上游水上安全管理的思考。船海工程,2001年S1期。
[45] 刘建军,王华庆。打造“黄金水道”——关于长江航运发展问题的探讨。中国航务周刊,2002(5)。
[46] 万里鹏,易吉洪,邹衫元。沉船死人何时休——长江海事频发原因剖析。中国水运,2001(15)。
[47] 数字化丛书编委会。交通运输智能化全书。北京:清华大学出版社,2001。
[2] D. Roeleven, M. Kok, H. L. Stipdonk. Inland waterway transport: Modeling the probability of accidents[J]. Safety Science, 1995, 19: 191～202.
[3] Le Blanc, Louis A. and Conway T. Rucks, A cluster analysis of vessel accidents, the Logistics and Transportation Review, Volume 31, Numbed, March 1995, 47-62.
[4] Theodore Sampson, Maritime Risk Analysis and Management—Existing Practices, Existing Needs, World Maritime University, 2000. 7.
[5] Wang jin. the current status and future aspects in formal ship safety assessment, safety science, 2001. 38.
[6] Wang J., Pillay A., Wall A., Loughran C., The latest development in marine safety assessment, Proceeding of the 4th International Conference On Reliability, Maintainability & Safety, May 18-21, 1999, Shanghai, China, 711-719.
[7] Mou Jun-min, Zou Zao-jian, Huang Li-wen, Ji Yong-qing. Study on Pattern of Vessel Accident, Proc. of New S—Tec'2004, Shanghai, China, 2004.10.
[8] LiYong. Developmentofaninlandwaterwaytrans-porteducationandtrainingprograminChinaMScd issertation. Malmo, Sweden: WorldMaritimeUni-versity, 1999: 61～72.
[9] Brown, Lester R. Redefining National Security. World Watch. 1977.
[10] Saaty, T. L. The Analytic Hierarchy Process. McGraw—Hill Company, 1980: 287.
[11] Adamec, D. and R. L. Elsberry, 1985: Numerical Simulations of the Response of Intense Ocean Currents to Atmospheric Forcing. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 15: 273-287.
[12] Annual report of maritime accidents, 1999, Maritime Safety Administration of People's Republic of China. 2001: 454～500.
[13] Guanrong Chen, Yaobin Mao. A symmetric image encryption scheme based on 3D chaotic mat maps[J]. Chaos, solitions&fractals.2002, 5: 501～510.
[14] COSCO ROTTERDAM INSTRCTION BOOK M-103 DATA LOGGER. 100～123.
[15] Zhang Shi-hai, Wu Jian-hua. Study Model of Ship Engine-room. Navigation of China. 2005, (63)2: 25～28.
[16] 黄立文,邓健。自然环境对水上交通安全的影响及对策研究。航海技术,中国航海学会2003年年会优秀论文集。
[17] 齐传新。内河船舶运输安全学。大连:大连海运学院出版社,1990:173—193。
[18] 邱建华。长江水上交通安全状况综合评价方法。武汉理工大学硕士论文,2003.7。
[19] 牟军敏,邹早建,齐传新。数据挖掘技术在内河交通事故分析和预防中的应用。中国航海,2004.1。
[20] 吴兆麟等。海上交通安全评估方法技术研究报告。大连:大连海事大学学报,1997。
[21] 陈伟炯。船舶航行安全的可持续改善途径。交通运输工程学报,2002.9:115—119。
[22] 何焰,由文辉。水环境生态安全预警评价与分析。安全与环境工程,2004.12。
[23] 张家港长江港监局,关于江阴港附近六公里长江船舶交通安全评价试点测算情况的报告,1991。
[24] 刘士奇,王剑平。公路交通安全评价指标体系探讨。北方交通大学学报,1994.12。
[25] 曾畅云,李贵宝,傅桦。水环境安全及其指标体系研究,南水北调与水利科技 2004.8。
[26] 中国科学院资源环境科学信息中心。可持续发展评估指标(体系)、方法及应用研究 2002.9。
[27] 宋剑华。论水上交通安全长效管理机制。中国水运 2004.1。
[28] 宋明祥。浅析开展水上交通安全状况评估。珠江水运 2004.8。
[29] 王宝林。水上交通危险的评估。中国水运 2004.6。
[30] 张翔,夏军。基于压力-状态-响应概念框架的可持续水资源管理指标体系研究[J]。城市环境与城市生态,1999,12(5):23-25。
[31] 叶明海,吴红伟等。水路交通运输安全管理事故防范处理实用手册。
[32] 国家安全生产监督管理局、国家煤矿安全监察局。国家安全生产科技发展规划交通运输建筑等领域研究报告,2003.12。
[33] 范耀天。内河船舶交通安全评价法——危险指数法。交通科技。
[34] 水运交通灾害、事故预警防范搜救处理与监察执法实务全书。宁夏大地音像出版社 2004。
[35] 张凤泉 方瑞祥。交通安全度评价标准及其指标体系变量分析,第四届全国人的可靠性和人-机-环境系统可靠性专题研讨会论文集,2004.9。
[36] 江苏省交通厅。江苏段长江航运的发展与水上安全。中国水运 1994.9。
[37] 陈汉友。长江港航治安的近况及主要任务。武汉交通管理干部学院学报,1994年Z1期。
[38] 沈祥法。初探长江引航安全管理。中国港口,1995.6。
[39] 张若妮。长江航道建设概况。中国水运,1998.2。
[40] 黄强。努力提高三峡通航管理水平。中国水运,1998.6。
[41] 夏保国。长江航运安全与VHF通信。中国水运,1999.9。
[42] 黄忠秀。船舶运输控制系统。北京:人民交通出版社,2000.270～3302。
[43] 李勇。内河船舶航行安全保障设备系统(AIS)。交通科技,2000,(增刊):20～213。
[44] 谭孝福。关于长江上游水上安全管理的思考。船海工程,2001年S1期。
[45] 刘建军,王华庆。打造“黄金水道”——关于长江航运发展问题的探讨。中国航务周刊,2002(5)。
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