渭北黄土台塬区水土资源优化配置与潜力开发
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摘要
随着人口的增长,加上水土资源本身的有限性和紧缺性,人地矛盾、人水矛盾也日渐突出,导致生态环境问题层出不穷。因此,如何合理利用有限的水土资源是实现一个地区是否可持续发展的重大前题条件。水土资源优化配置正是解决这一问题的主要手段和重要内容,它主要是实现水土资源利用效率的最优化,从而保证区域自然资源的可持续利用。
本文,以陕西省渭北黄土台塬区为研究实例,借助DEM利用Arcview3.3提取区域界线,在统计数据的支持下,对区域土地资源和水资源的数量、布局、承载力、利用状况及其影响因素进行评价；分析总结出了水土资源开发利用中存在的问题；在此基础上,应用多目标线形规划法,借助优化工具箱,构建水土资源优化配置模型；在BP神经网络模型下,评定了优化方案的可行性；并因地制宜提出了实施水土资源利用结构优化方案的开发战略重点及其具体保障措施。研究过程中的主要结论如下：
(1)土地资源利用状况
①耕地呈现稳中略降的趋势,特别是在礼泉县变化最为明显。②园地总体呈增长的趋势,是所有用地类型中面积变化速率最快的,以三原县变化为最大。③林地总体呈增长的趋势,其中泾阳县变化最大。④草地总体呈增长的趋势,且在三原县增加的最为明显。⑤水域总体呈现增长的趋势,且永寿县增加最为明显。⑥建设用地总体呈增长的趋势,其中耀州区的增加最为明显。⑦未利用地总体呈现减少的趋势。
(2)水资源利用状况
2007年,渭北黄土台塬区实际总用水量为14.04x108m3,以农业用水和工业用水为主,各类水源工程总供水量14.24×108m3；所属的五个三级流域分区中,渭河宝鸡峡至咸阳流域和渭河咸阳至潼关流域的水资源承载能力相对比较强；所辖的20个县(区)均属于水资源超载地区,其中,金台区水资源承载力相对最高；台塬区社会发展用水总量呈逐年增加的趋势,年均增长率为3.2%。
(3)水土资源优化配置模型构建
应用多目标线性规划法,共设置了7个决策变量,9个约束条件,建立了台塬区水土资源优化配置模型。结果表明：2020年与2006年相比,耕地面积保持动态平衡并略有增加；园地和林地面积分别增加1.47%-1.48%和10.44%-10.45%,生态环境得到明显改善：水域用地面积增加0.12%～0.13%,建设用地面积增加1.07%～1.17%,土地利用可取得700.18亿元～701.61亿元的经济效益。
(4)水土资源优化方案模型评价
在Matlab7.1平台下,应用BP神经网络模型,对优化方案进行评定。结果表明,优化方案带来综合效益的明显增加,实现了水土资源利用的结构优化及其合理分配,是合理可行的。
(5)水土资源潜力开发重点及措施
针对本区域的的特点,分析了台塬区水土后备资源及现有资源存在的潜力价值,提出了适合本区高效利用与保护的潜力开发战略重点,以此为指导总结出了因地制宜的潜力开发措施。
本文,将DEM和行政区划合二为一,划定渭北黄土台塬区的边界,有利于地形指标的定位和社会经济数据的获取,接近于现实需要。借助Matlab7.1优化工具箱求解提出优化方案,运用BP模型进行综合效益的评价分析,避免了主观因素的干扰。这也是本文的改进之处。
With the growth of population, the contradiction between the people and the land or water has been more serious day by day. How to allocate the limited and rationally is an important issue of regional sustainable development. Optimal allocation of land and water resources is the optimization in order to which efficiently implement the land and water resources. It is also an important way that ensures the sustainable use of natural resources.
This article uses Weibei Loess TaiYuan, in Shannxi Province as investigation demonstration, with the aid of DEM, we get the area boundaries. On the base of analysis the land resources, quality, LCC and WCC, and measure the water requirement for land resource system, we studies the configuration and quantity characteristic of land utilization and the problems in existence of land and water resources utilization. Additionally, employing multi-objective linear programming method, on the premise of the society sustainable development, we put forward the allocation modes of land and water resources based on ecosystem that aims at satisfying the restriction qualifications and strategic decision, and maximizing the ecosystem and economic benefits, with the help of optimization toolbox. In addition to, through the BP neural network, we carry out rationality and durative analysis of optimizing scheme, according to the local fact. At the same time, we bring forward practical ensuring measures and strategic emphasis for actualizing optimizing project of local utilization configuration, and provide demonstration investigation for optimizing collocation of country region land. In this article, some important results have been concluded:
(1) the utilization of land resources
①The cultivated land decreased year after year. And Liquan of town degenerated more obviously.②The garden land increased at maximum speed year after year. Sanyuan of town degenerated more obviously.③The forest land increased year after year. Jingyang of town degenerated more obviously.④The grass land increased year after year. Sanyuan of town degenerated more obviously.⑤The water area increased year after year. Yongshou of town degenerated more obviously.⑥The building increased year after year. Yaozhou of town degenerated more obviously.⑦The unused land decreased year after year.
(2) the social water supply and need changes year by year.
In 2007, the total water consumption in Weibei loess Taiyuan is 14.04×108m3,and the total water supply is 13.24×108m3.The agricultural water need and the industrial water need are the major factors in the structure of the total water consumption. There is the relatively strong capacity of water resources in the Weihe Baoji-xianyang watershed and the Weihe Xianyang-tongguan watershed. The total 20 districts are all part of one of the overloaded regions. And Jintai is the strongest capacity of water resources zone. The total water need in Weibei Loess Taiyuan increased year after year, with an annual growth rate of 3.2%.
(3) set up the allocation modes of land and water resources
By employing multi-objective linear programming method, based on seven variable decisions and nine restrainable conditions, we set up the allocation modes of land and water resources about Weibei loess Taiyuan. The optimization results show that in 2020, the cultivated land area increased slowly, the garden land and the forest land area increased of 1.47～1.48 percent and10.44～10.45 percent; the water area increased of 0.12～0.13 percent; the building land increased of 1.07～1.17 percent; land-use economic benefits increased 700.18-701.61 hundred million.
(4) carry though benefit analysis to the allocation modes of land and water resources
By using Matlab as platform, we applied the BP neural network model to carry though benefit analysis to the allocation modes of land and water resources. The results show, optimizing scheme will bring increases of society, economy and collectivity benefit. And the scheme will implement the utilization of land and water resources and the rational allocation of structural optimization.
(5) bring forward practical ensuring measures and strategic emphasis
On the basis of the results from both home and abroad, referring to the large number of theoretical work, we analysis the potential value existing the water and land resources from the local facts. In addition, we bring forward practical ensuring measures and strategic emphasis for actualizing optimizing project of local utilization configuration。
This article, referring to both DEM and political boundary, bring forward the geographic range of Weibei Loess Taiyuan. It is close to the real need that gets data from society, economy and index of landform. With the aid of the Optimization Toolbox in Matlab7.1, and the BP neural network model, we analysis the comprehensive benefits and avoid the subjective factors. It is some progression in the article.
本文,以陕西省渭北黄土台塬区为研究实例,借助DEM利用Arcview3.3提取区域界线,在统计数据的支持下,对区域土地资源和水资源的数量、布局、承载力、利用状况及其影响因素进行评价；分析总结出了水土资源开发利用中存在的问题；在此基础上,应用多目标线形规划法,借助优化工具箱,构建水土资源优化配置模型；在BP神经网络模型下,评定了优化方案的可行性；并因地制宜提出了实施水土资源利用结构优化方案的开发战略重点及其具体保障措施。研究过程中的主要结论如下：
(1)土地资源利用状况
①耕地呈现稳中略降的趋势,特别是在礼泉县变化最为明显。②园地总体呈增长的趋势,是所有用地类型中面积变化速率最快的,以三原县变化为最大。③林地总体呈增长的趋势,其中泾阳县变化最大。④草地总体呈增长的趋势,且在三原县增加的最为明显。⑤水域总体呈现增长的趋势,且永寿县增加最为明显。⑥建设用地总体呈增长的趋势,其中耀州区的增加最为明显。⑦未利用地总体呈现减少的趋势。
(2)水资源利用状况
2007年,渭北黄土台塬区实际总用水量为14.04x108m3,以农业用水和工业用水为主,各类水源工程总供水量14.24×108m3；所属的五个三级流域分区中,渭河宝鸡峡至咸阳流域和渭河咸阳至潼关流域的水资源承载能力相对比较强；所辖的20个县(区)均属于水资源超载地区,其中,金台区水资源承载力相对最高；台塬区社会发展用水总量呈逐年增加的趋势,年均增长率为3.2%。
(3)水土资源优化配置模型构建
应用多目标线性规划法,共设置了7个决策变量,9个约束条件,建立了台塬区水土资源优化配置模型。结果表明：2020年与2006年相比,耕地面积保持动态平衡并略有增加；园地和林地面积分别增加1.47%-1.48%和10.44%-10.45%,生态环境得到明显改善：水域用地面积增加0.12%～0.13%,建设用地面积增加1.07%～1.17%,土地利用可取得700.18亿元～701.61亿元的经济效益。
(4)水土资源优化方案模型评价
在Matlab7.1平台下,应用BP神经网络模型,对优化方案进行评定。结果表明,优化方案带来综合效益的明显增加,实现了水土资源利用的结构优化及其合理分配,是合理可行的。
(5)水土资源潜力开发重点及措施
针对本区域的的特点,分析了台塬区水土后备资源及现有资源存在的潜力价值,提出了适合本区高效利用与保护的潜力开发战略重点,以此为指导总结出了因地制宜的潜力开发措施。
本文,将DEM和行政区划合二为一,划定渭北黄土台塬区的边界,有利于地形指标的定位和社会经济数据的获取,接近于现实需要。借助Matlab7.1优化工具箱求解提出优化方案,运用BP模型进行综合效益的评价分析,避免了主观因素的干扰。这也是本文的改进之处。
With the growth of population, the contradiction between the people and the land or water has been more serious day by day. How to allocate the limited and rationally is an important issue of regional sustainable development. Optimal allocation of land and water resources is the optimization in order to which efficiently implement the land and water resources. It is also an important way that ensures the sustainable use of natural resources.
This article uses Weibei Loess TaiYuan, in Shannxi Province as investigation demonstration, with the aid of DEM, we get the area boundaries. On the base of analysis the land resources, quality, LCC and WCC, and measure the water requirement for land resource system, we studies the configuration and quantity characteristic of land utilization and the problems in existence of land and water resources utilization. Additionally, employing multi-objective linear programming method, on the premise of the society sustainable development, we put forward the allocation modes of land and water resources based on ecosystem that aims at satisfying the restriction qualifications and strategic decision, and maximizing the ecosystem and economic benefits, with the help of optimization toolbox. In addition to, through the BP neural network, we carry out rationality and durative analysis of optimizing scheme, according to the local fact. At the same time, we bring forward practical ensuring measures and strategic emphasis for actualizing optimizing project of local utilization configuration, and provide demonstration investigation for optimizing collocation of country region land. In this article, some important results have been concluded:
(1) the utilization of land resources
①The cultivated land decreased year after year. And Liquan of town degenerated more obviously.②The garden land increased at maximum speed year after year. Sanyuan of town degenerated more obviously.③The forest land increased year after year. Jingyang of town degenerated more obviously.④The grass land increased year after year. Sanyuan of town degenerated more obviously.⑤The water area increased year after year. Yongshou of town degenerated more obviously.⑥The building increased year after year. Yaozhou of town degenerated more obviously.⑦The unused land decreased year after year.
(2) the social water supply and need changes year by year.
In 2007, the total water consumption in Weibei loess Taiyuan is 14.04×108m3,and the total water supply is 13.24×108m3.The agricultural water need and the industrial water need are the major factors in the structure of the total water consumption. There is the relatively strong capacity of water resources in the Weihe Baoji-xianyang watershed and the Weihe Xianyang-tongguan watershed. The total 20 districts are all part of one of the overloaded regions. And Jintai is the strongest capacity of water resources zone. The total water need in Weibei Loess Taiyuan increased year after year, with an annual growth rate of 3.2%.
(3) set up the allocation modes of land and water resources
By employing multi-objective linear programming method, based on seven variable decisions and nine restrainable conditions, we set up the allocation modes of land and water resources about Weibei loess Taiyuan. The optimization results show that in 2020, the cultivated land area increased slowly, the garden land and the forest land area increased of 1.47～1.48 percent and10.44～10.45 percent; the water area increased of 0.12～0.13 percent; the building land increased of 1.07～1.17 percent; land-use economic benefits increased 700.18-701.61 hundred million.
(4) carry though benefit analysis to the allocation modes of land and water resources
By using Matlab as platform, we applied the BP neural network model to carry though benefit analysis to the allocation modes of land and water resources. The results show, optimizing scheme will bring increases of society, economy and collectivity benefit. And the scheme will implement the utilization of land and water resources and the rational allocation of structural optimization.
(5) bring forward practical ensuring measures and strategic emphasis
On the basis of the results from both home and abroad, referring to the large number of theoretical work, we analysis the potential value existing the water and land resources from the local facts. In addition, we bring forward practical ensuring measures and strategic emphasis for actualizing optimizing project of local utilization configuration。
This article, referring to both DEM and political boundary, bring forward the geographic range of Weibei Loess Taiyuan. It is close to the real need that gets data from society, economy and index of landform. With the aid of the Optimization Toolbox in Matlab7.1, and the BP neural network model, we analysis the comprehensive benefits and avoid the subjective factors. It is some progression in the article.
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