基于Hubbert模型的中国锑矿生产峰值研究
|
摘要
锑矿是中国的优势矿产之一,主要用于阻燃剂、铅酸蓄电池等领域且目前在阻燃剂领域具有不可替代性。近年来中国锑资源需求日益增长,但也面临着矿山开采过度、走私泛滥、资源消耗过快等问题。本文选用Hubbert生产峰值预测模型对锑矿产量峰值及其到达时间进行判断。预测结果表明,在最终可采资源量分别为689万t、842.5万t和996万t三种情景下,产量峰值分别为13.78万t、15.65万t和17.6万t,峰值到达时间分别为2014年、2019年和2023年。通过分析我国锑资源消耗过快的影响因素,提出延缓锑资源耗竭速度的对策建议。
Antimony ore is one of the dominant minerals in China.It is mainly used in flame retardants,leadacid batteries and other fields.At present,it is irreplaceable in the field of flame retardants.In recent years,the demand for antimony resources in China has been increasing day by day,but it is also facing problems such as excessive mining,rampant smuggling and excessive consumption of resources.In this paper,Hubbert production peak prediction model is used to judge the peak value of antimony production and its arrival time.The forecast results show that under the three scenarios of 6.89 million tons,8.425 million tons and 9.96 million tons of ultimate recoverable resources,the peak output is 137.8 million tons,156.5 million tons and176,000 tons respectively,and the peak arrival time is 2014,2019 and 2023,respectively.By analyzing the influencing factors of the excessive consumption of antimony resources in China,the countermeasures and suggestions for delaying the consumption of antimony resources are put forward.
Antimony ore is one of the dominant minerals in China.It is mainly used in flame retardants,leadacid batteries and other fields.At present,it is irreplaceable in the field of flame retardants.In recent years,the demand for antimony resources in China has been increasing day by day,but it is also facing problems such as excessive mining,rampant smuggling and excessive consumption of resources.In this paper,Hubbert production peak prediction model is used to judge the peak value of antimony production and its arrival time.The forecast results show that under the three scenarios of 6.89 million tons,8.425 million tons and 9.96 million tons of ultimate recoverable resources,the peak output is 137.8 million tons,156.5 million tons and176,000 tons respectively,and the peak arrival time is 2014,2019 and 2023,respectively.By analyzing the influencing factors of the excessive consumption of antimony resources in China,the countermeasures and suggestions for delaying the consumption of antimony resources are put forward.
引文
[1]罗英杰,王小烈,柳群义,等.中国锑资源产业发展形势及对策建议[J].资源与产业,2016,18(1):75-81.LUO Yingjie,WANG Xiaolie,LIU Qunyi,et al.Development actuality and suggestions of China's antimony industry[J].Resources&Industries,2016,18(1):75-81.
[2]罗英杰,王小烈,柳群义,等.中国未来锑资源需求预测[J].中国矿业,2017,26(3):1-5.LUO Yingjie,WANG Xiaolie,LIU Qunyi,et al.The future demand of antimony in China[J].China Mining Magazine,2017,26(3):1-5.
[3]王熙博.中国稀土资源产量预测方法研究与应用[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京),2015.
[4]HUBBERT M K.Nuclear energy and the fossil fuels[J].Drilling and Production Practice,1956,95:1-57.
[5]翁文波.预测论基础[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1984.
[6]胡建国,陈元千,张盛宗.预测油气田产量的新模型[J].石油学报,1995,16(1):79-87.HU Jianguo,CHEN Yuanqian,ZHANG Shengzong.A new model to predict production rate of oil and gas fields[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,1995,16(1):79-87.
[7]李明玉.能源供给与能源消费的系统动力学模型[D].沈阳:东北大学,2009.
[8]杨振宏.矿石产量灰色系统GM(1,1)模型的建立及预测[J].中国钼业,1999,23(6):13-16.YANG Zhenhong.Research on the establishment and forecasting of the gray system GM(1,1)model in ore yield[J].China Molybdenum Industry,1999,23(6):13-16.
[9]HUBBERT M K.Energy resources[M].1962.
[10]HUBBERT M K.Degree of advancement of petroleum exploration in the United States[J].AAPG Bulletin,1967,51(11):2207-2227.
[11]HUBBERT M K.Techniques of prediction as applied to production of oil and gas[M].US Department of Commerce,NBSSpecial Publication,1982.
[12]AL-FATTAH S M,STARTZMAN R A.Analysis of worldwide natural gas production[R].1999.
[13]CALVO G,VALERO A.Assessing maximum production peak and resource availability of non-fuel mineral resources:analyzing the influence of extractable global resources[J].Resources,Conservation and Recycling,2017,125:2018-217.
[14]李鹏远.中国黄金供需预测及对策研究[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京),2015.
[15]AL-HUSSEINIM.The debate over Hubbert's peak:a review[J].GeoArabia,2006,11(2):181-210.
[16]黎斌林,申维.基于多循环Hubbert模型对全球石油峰值的预测[J].中国矿业,2014,23(1):40-43,61.LI Binlin,SHEN Wei.Global peak oil prediction by application of multi-cycle Hubbert model[J].China Mining Magazine,2014,23(1):40-43,61.
[17]夏阳.2002年锑市场回顾与分析[J].中国金属通报,2003(S1):42-44.XIA Yang.Review and analysis of antimony market in 2002[J].China Metal Bulletin,2003(S1):42-44.
[18]邓卫华,戴永俊.我国锑火法冶金技术现状及发展方向[J].湖南有色金属,2017,33(4):20-33.DENG Weihua,DAI Yongjun.State of art on antimony thermometallurgy in China[J].Hunan Nonferrous Metals,2017,33(4):20-33.
[19]王永磊,陈毓川,王登红,等.中国锑矿主要矿集区及其资源潜力探讨[J].中国地质,2013,40(5):1366-1378.WANG Yonglei,CHEN Yuchuan,WANG Denghong,et al.The principal antimony concentration areas in China and their resource potentials[J].Geology in China,2013,40(5):1366-1378.
[2]罗英杰,王小烈,柳群义,等.中国未来锑资源需求预测[J].中国矿业,2017,26(3):1-5.LUO Yingjie,WANG Xiaolie,LIU Qunyi,et al.The future demand of antimony in China[J].China Mining Magazine,2017,26(3):1-5.
[3]王熙博.中国稀土资源产量预测方法研究与应用[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京),2015.
[4]HUBBERT M K.Nuclear energy and the fossil fuels[J].Drilling and Production Practice,1956,95:1-57.
[5]翁文波.预测论基础[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1984.
[6]胡建国,陈元千,张盛宗.预测油气田产量的新模型[J].石油学报,1995,16(1):79-87.HU Jianguo,CHEN Yuanqian,ZHANG Shengzong.A new model to predict production rate of oil and gas fields[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,1995,16(1):79-87.
[7]李明玉.能源供给与能源消费的系统动力学模型[D].沈阳:东北大学,2009.
[8]杨振宏.矿石产量灰色系统GM(1,1)模型的建立及预测[J].中国钼业,1999,23(6):13-16.YANG Zhenhong.Research on the establishment and forecasting of the gray system GM(1,1)model in ore yield[J].China Molybdenum Industry,1999,23(6):13-16.
[9]HUBBERT M K.Energy resources[M].1962.
[10]HUBBERT M K.Degree of advancement of petroleum exploration in the United States[J].AAPG Bulletin,1967,51(11):2207-2227.
[11]HUBBERT M K.Techniques of prediction as applied to production of oil and gas[M].US Department of Commerce,NBSSpecial Publication,1982.
[12]AL-FATTAH S M,STARTZMAN R A.Analysis of worldwide natural gas production[R].1999.
[13]CALVO G,VALERO A.Assessing maximum production peak and resource availability of non-fuel mineral resources:analyzing the influence of extractable global resources[J].Resources,Conservation and Recycling,2017,125:2018-217.
[14]李鹏远.中国黄金供需预测及对策研究[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京),2015.
[15]AL-HUSSEINIM.The debate over Hubbert's peak:a review[J].GeoArabia,2006,11(2):181-210.
[16]黎斌林,申维.基于多循环Hubbert模型对全球石油峰值的预测[J].中国矿业,2014,23(1):40-43,61.LI Binlin,SHEN Wei.Global peak oil prediction by application of multi-cycle Hubbert model[J].China Mining Magazine,2014,23(1):40-43,61.
[17]夏阳.2002年锑市场回顾与分析[J].中国金属通报,2003(S1):42-44.XIA Yang.Review and analysis of antimony market in 2002[J].China Metal Bulletin,2003(S1):42-44.
[18]邓卫华,戴永俊.我国锑火法冶金技术现状及发展方向[J].湖南有色金属,2017,33(4):20-33.DENG Weihua,DAI Yongjun.State of art on antimony thermometallurgy in China[J].Hunan Nonferrous Metals,2017,33(4):20-33.
[19]王永磊,陈毓川,王登红,等.中国锑矿主要矿集区及其资源潜力探讨[J].中国地质,2013,40(5):1366-1378.WANG Yonglei,CHEN Yuchuan,WANG Denghong,et al.The principal antimony concentration areas in China and their resource potentials[J].Geology in China,2013,40(5):1366-1378.