土地征收对农户收入的影响效应分析——基于倾向得分匹配模型的实证
|
摘要
被征地农户的生计问题关系社会稳定与经济发展大局,探讨征地对农户收入变化的影响具有非常重要的现实意义。基于北京师范大学中国收入分配研究院、国家统计局及国内外相关高校和研究机构共同完成的2013年中国家庭收入调查数据(CHIP),利用倾向得分匹配模型(PSM),分别从征地时间和地区差异两个维度实证分析了征地政策对农户收入的净效应。结果表明,在未考虑样本征地时间与地区差异的情况下,征地可以显著增加农户收入水平,且被征地农户家庭总收入均值明显提高3 151元,但简单均值对比分析明显高估了征地对农户增收影响效应。从样本的征地时间差异可知,征地对于农户收入的影响效应随时间推移呈现"先降后升"的趋势,征地时间周期越长农户增收效应越明显,家庭总收入的净效应从2 632元逐渐提高到5 257元。从样本的地区差异可知,土地征收对于农户收入效应呈现出明显的区域差异性,不同经济发展水平的地区征地对农户收入水平的变化呈现差异性,而东部地区征地对农民的增收效应最为明显,而中西部地区征地并不能明显带来农户收入的增加。为切实提高中西部地区被征地农户收入水平,需要继续进一步完善农地的"三权分置"制度,鼓励闲置土地进行流转,结合农户特征与意愿提供多种形式的就业技能培训,适度提高中西部地区征地补偿标准,采取多元化的补偿安置模式。
The livelihood issues of land-lost farmers are related to the overall situation of social stability and economic development. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to discuss the impact of land acquisition on the changes of rural household income. Based on the 2013 National Household Income Survey Data(CHIP), completed by the China Institute for Income Distribution of Beijing Normal University, the National Bureau of Statistics, and related universities and research institutions at home and abroad, this paper empirically analyzes the income effects of land acquisition on farmers from the perspectives of land acquisition time and regional differences using the propensity score matching model(PSM). Results show that land acquisition can significantly increase farmers' income if not considering land acquisition time and regional differences in the samples. The average income of land-expropriated farmers is significantly increased by 3 151 yuan. However, the simple mean comparison analysis overestimates the effect of land acquisition on farmers' income increase. From the time difference of the sample, the effect of land acquisition on the income of farmers showed a trend of "first drop and then rise" over time. The longer the time period of land acquisition,the more obvious the effect of farmers' income increases, and the net effect of the total income is gradually increased from 2 632 yuan to 5 257 yuan. From the regional difference of the samples, the effect of land expropriation on the income increase of farmers shows obvious regional differences. The regional land acquisition with different levels of economic development has different changes of farmers' income, while the effect of land acquisition on farmers in the eastern region has increased. Most obviously, land acquisition in the central and western regions does not significantly increase farmers' income. In order to effectively increase the income of land-expropriated farmers in the central and western regions of China, it is necessary to continue to improve the "Three Rights Division" system for agricultural land, to encourage idle agricultural land to be transferred, to provide various forms of employment skill trainings, to appropriately increase the compensation rates for land acquisition and adopt a diversified compensation method.
The livelihood issues of land-lost farmers are related to the overall situation of social stability and economic development. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to discuss the impact of land acquisition on the changes of rural household income. Based on the 2013 National Household Income Survey Data(CHIP), completed by the China Institute for Income Distribution of Beijing Normal University, the National Bureau of Statistics, and related universities and research institutions at home and abroad, this paper empirically analyzes the income effects of land acquisition on farmers from the perspectives of land acquisition time and regional differences using the propensity score matching model(PSM). Results show that land acquisition can significantly increase farmers' income if not considering land acquisition time and regional differences in the samples. The average income of land-expropriated farmers is significantly increased by 3 151 yuan. However, the simple mean comparison analysis overestimates the effect of land acquisition on farmers' income increase. From the time difference of the sample, the effect of land acquisition on the income of farmers showed a trend of "first drop and then rise" over time. The longer the time period of land acquisition,the more obvious the effect of farmers' income increases, and the net effect of the total income is gradually increased from 2 632 yuan to 5 257 yuan. From the regional difference of the samples, the effect of land expropriation on the income increase of farmers shows obvious regional differences. The regional land acquisition with different levels of economic development has different changes of farmers' income, while the effect of land acquisition on farmers in the eastern region has increased. Most obviously, land acquisition in the central and western regions does not significantly increase farmers' income. In order to effectively increase the income of land-expropriated farmers in the central and western regions of China, it is necessary to continue to improve the "Three Rights Division" system for agricultural land, to encourage idle agricultural land to be transferred, to provide various forms of employment skill trainings, to appropriately increase the compensation rates for land acquisition and adopt a diversified compensation method.
引文
[1]中国城市发展报告编委会.中国城市发展报告[M].北京:中国城市出版社,2012.Editorial Board of Chinese Urban Development Report.Chinese Urban Development Report[M].Beijing:China City Press,2012.
[2]刘彦随,周扬.中国美丽乡村建设的挑战与对策[J].农业资源与环境学报,2015,32(2):97-105.Liu Y S,Zhou Y.Challenges and countermeasures for beautiful countryside construction in China[J].Journal of Agricultural Resources and Environment,2015,32(2):97-105.
[3]欧胜彬,陈利根.被征地农民社会保障制度创新研究--以南宁市为例[J].学术论坛,2016,39(6):126-130.Ou S B,Chen L G.Research on the innovation of social security system of land-expropriated farmers farmers-Taking Nanning City as an example[J].Academic Forum,2016,39(6):126-130.
[4]Li H,Huang X J,Kwan M P,et al.Changes in farmers’welfare from land requisition in the process of rapid urbanization[J].Land Use Policy,2015,42:635-641.
[5]Huang X J,Huang X,He Y B,et al.Assessment of livelihood vulnerability of land-lost farmers in urban fringes:A case study of Xi’an,China[J].Habitat International,2017,59:1-9.
[6]刘魏.非农就业对城郊农民收入的影响研究[J].西南大学学报(社会科学版),2016,42(5):61-73,190.Liu W.A study of the influence of non-farm employment on the income of suburban farmer[J].Journal of Southwest University(Social Sciences Edition),2016,42(5):61-73,190.
[7]高进云,周智,乔荣锋.森的可行能力理论框架下土地征收对农民福利的影响测度[J].中国软科学,2010(12):59-69.Gao J Y,Zhou Z,Qiao R F.Effect of the land expropriation on farmers’welfare based on Amartya Sen’s capability approach[J].China Soft Science,2010(12):59-69.
[8]汤夺先,高朋.城市化进程中失地农民的贫困问题及其治理[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(8):114-120.Tang D X,Gao P.Poverty problem and counter-measures of landlost farmers during urbanization[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2012,22(8):114-120.
[9]丁琳琳,吴群,李永乐.土地征收中农户福利变化及其影响因素--基于江苏省不同地区的农户问卷调查[J].经济地理,2016,36(12):154-161.Ding L L,Wu Q,Li Y L.The research of farmer’s welfare changes and its influence factors in the process of land acquisition:Based on peasant household survey in Jiangsu Province[J].Economic Geography,2016,36(12):154-161.
[10]丁士军,杨晶,张科静,等.征地与农户收入结构变化:对九江和襄阳农户数据的分析[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2015(5):1-8.Ding S J,Yang J,Zhang K J,et al.Land requisition and farmers’income structural changes:An analysis based on data from Jiujiang and Xiangyang[J].Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition),2015(5):1-8.
[11]史清华,晋洪涛,卓建伟.征地一定降低农民收入吗:上海7村调查--兼论现行征地制度的缺陷与改革[J].管理世界,2011(3):77-82,91.Shi Q H,Jin H T,Zhuo J W.Does land acquisition necessarily lead to the decline of farmers’income?[J].Management World,2011(3):77-82,91.
[12]镇玲,孙丽丽.城市近郊被征地农户生计变化分析--以武汉市江夏区为例[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2013(5):106-112.Zhen L,Sun L L.Analysis on changes of livelihoods of lost-land farmers in outskirts of city-A case study in Jiangxia County of Wuhan City[J].Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition),2013(5):106-112.
[13]崔宝玉,谢煜,徐英婷.土地征用的农户收入效应--基于倾向得分匹配(PSM)的反事实估计[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(2):111-118.Cui B Y,Xie Y,Xu Y T.The farmers incomes’effect of land acquisition-Based on propensity score matching counterfactual estimate[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2016,26(2):111-118.
[14]汪险生,郭忠兴.被征地农民的收入下降了吗--来自CFPS数据的证据[J].农业技术经济,2017(6):14-27.Wang X S,Guo Z X.Has the income of land-expropriated farmers decreased?Evidence from CFPS data[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2017(6):14-27.
[15]Rosenbaum P R,Rubin D B.The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects[J].Biometrika,1983,70(1):41-55.
[16]马聪,刘黎明,袁承程,等.快速城镇化地区农户生计资本分化特征及其对生计策略的影响--以上海市青浦区为例[J].农业现代化研究,2018,39(2):316-324.Ma C,Liu L M,Yuan C C,et al.The differentiation characteristics of farmers’livelihood capital and their influences on the livelihood strategy in rapid urbanization area:A case study of Qingpu District of Shanghai[J].Research of Agricultural Modernization,2018,39(2):316-324.
[17]黄建伟,喻洁.失地农民关键自然资本的丧失、补偿及其对收入的影响研究--基于七省一市的实地调研[J].探索,2010(4):86-92.Huang J W,Yu J.Study on the loss and compensation of key natural capital of land-losing farmers and its impact on incomeBased on field research in seven provinces and one city[J].Probe,2010(4):86-92.
[18]丁士军,张银银,马志雄.被征地农户生计能力变化研究--基于可持续生计框架的改进[J].农业经济问题,2016,37(6):25-34,110-111.Ding S J,Zhang Y Y,Ma Z X.Research on changes of livelihood capabilities of rural households encountered by land acquisition:Based on improvement of sustainable livelihood approach[J].Issues in Agricultural Economy,2016,37(6):25-34,110-111.
[19]丁士军,杨晶,陈玉萍.基于流动性视角的失地农户收入变化分析--来自襄阳和昆明的证据[J].中国农村观察,2017(1):29-40,141.Ding S J,Yang J,Chen Y P.An analysis on changes in income for rural households affected by land acquisition based on income mobility:Evidence from Xiangyang and Kunming Cities[J].China Rural Survey,2017(1):29-40,141.
[20]苏芳,郑亚萍,周亚雄.农村劳动力转移与农户生计间的影响关系分析--以甘肃省为例[J].干旱区地理,2017,40(4):875-880.Su F,Zheng Y P,Zhou Y X.Relationship analysis between transfer of rural labor and farmers’livelihood:A case of Gansu Province[J].Arid Land Geography,2017,40(4):875-880.
[21]彭继权,吴海涛,孟权.家庭生命周期、社会资本与农户生计策略研究[J].中国农业大学学报,2018,23(9):196-217.Peng J Q,Wu H T,Meng Q.Study on family life cycle,social capital and rural households’livelihood strategy[J].Journal of China Agricultural University 2018,23(9):196-217.
[22]丁士军,杨晶,吴海涛.失地农户收入流动及其影响因素分析[J].中国人口科学,2016(2):116-125,128.Ding S J,Yang J,Wu H T.Analysis of land-expropriated farmers’income mobility and its influence factors[J].Chinese Journal of Population Science,2016(2):116-125,128.
[23]陈乙酉,付园元.农民收入影响因素与对策:一个文献综述[J].改革,2014(9):67-72.Chen Y Y,Fu Y Y.Affecting factors of farmers’income and its countermeasures:A literature review[J].Reform,2014(9):67-72.
[24]胡安宁.倾向值匹配与因果推论:方法论述评[J].社会学研究,2012,27(1):221-242,246.Hu A N.Propensity score matching and causal inference:Amethodological review[J].Sociological Studies,2012,27(1):221-242,246.
[25]张寒,刘璨,刘浩.林地调整对农户营林积极性的因果效应分析--基于异质性视角的倾向值匹配估计[J].农业技术经济,2017(1):37-51.Zhang H,Liu C,Liu H.Analysis of the causal effect of forest land adjustment on farmers’enthusiasm for forest managementEstimation of propensity score matching based on heterogeneity perspective[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2017(1):37-51.
[26]Lian Y,Su Z,Gu Y.Evaluating the effects of equity incentives using PSM:Evidence from China[J].Frontiers of Business Research in China,2011(2):266-290.
[27]温兴祥,杜在超.匹配法综述:方法与应用[J].统计研究,2015,32(4):104-112.Wen X X,Du Z C.Survey on matching method:Theory and applications[J].Statistical Research,2015,32(4):104-112.
[28]陈飞,翟伟娟.农户行为视角下农地流转诱因及其福利效应研究[J].经济研究,2015,50(10):163-177.Chen F,Zhai W J.Land transfer incentive and welfare effect research from perspective of farmers’behavior[J].Economic Research Journal,2015,50(10):163-177.
[29]Sianesi B.An evaluation of the Swedish system of active labor market programs in the 1990s[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,2004,86(1):133-155.
[30]Rubin D B.Using propensity scores to help design observational studies:Application to the tobacco litigation[J].Health Services&Outcomes Research Methodology,2001,2(3/4):169-188.
[31]骆永民,樊丽明.土地:农民增收的保障还是阻碍?[J].经济研究,2015,50(8):146-161.Luo Y M,Fan L M.The role of land in growth of farmers’income:Protection or obstacle?[J].Economic Research Journal,2015,50(8):146-161.
[32]靳相木,陈阳.土地增值收益分配研究路线及其比较[J].经济问题探索,2017(10):1-5.Jin X M,Chen Y.Research routes of the land value-added income distribution and their comparison[J].Inquiry into Economic Issues,2017(10):1-5.
[2]刘彦随,周扬.中国美丽乡村建设的挑战与对策[J].农业资源与环境学报,2015,32(2):97-105.Liu Y S,Zhou Y.Challenges and countermeasures for beautiful countryside construction in China[J].Journal of Agricultural Resources and Environment,2015,32(2):97-105.
[3]欧胜彬,陈利根.被征地农民社会保障制度创新研究--以南宁市为例[J].学术论坛,2016,39(6):126-130.Ou S B,Chen L G.Research on the innovation of social security system of land-expropriated farmers farmers-Taking Nanning City as an example[J].Academic Forum,2016,39(6):126-130.
[4]Li H,Huang X J,Kwan M P,et al.Changes in farmers’welfare from land requisition in the process of rapid urbanization[J].Land Use Policy,2015,42:635-641.
[5]Huang X J,Huang X,He Y B,et al.Assessment of livelihood vulnerability of land-lost farmers in urban fringes:A case study of Xi’an,China[J].Habitat International,2017,59:1-9.
[6]刘魏.非农就业对城郊农民收入的影响研究[J].西南大学学报(社会科学版),2016,42(5):61-73,190.Liu W.A study of the influence of non-farm employment on the income of suburban farmer[J].Journal of Southwest University(Social Sciences Edition),2016,42(5):61-73,190.
[7]高进云,周智,乔荣锋.森的可行能力理论框架下土地征收对农民福利的影响测度[J].中国软科学,2010(12):59-69.Gao J Y,Zhou Z,Qiao R F.Effect of the land expropriation on farmers’welfare based on Amartya Sen’s capability approach[J].China Soft Science,2010(12):59-69.
[8]汤夺先,高朋.城市化进程中失地农民的贫困问题及其治理[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(8):114-120.Tang D X,Gao P.Poverty problem and counter-measures of landlost farmers during urbanization[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2012,22(8):114-120.
[9]丁琳琳,吴群,李永乐.土地征收中农户福利变化及其影响因素--基于江苏省不同地区的农户问卷调查[J].经济地理,2016,36(12):154-161.Ding L L,Wu Q,Li Y L.The research of farmer’s welfare changes and its influence factors in the process of land acquisition:Based on peasant household survey in Jiangsu Province[J].Economic Geography,2016,36(12):154-161.
[10]丁士军,杨晶,张科静,等.征地与农户收入结构变化:对九江和襄阳农户数据的分析[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2015(5):1-8.Ding S J,Yang J,Zhang K J,et al.Land requisition and farmers’income structural changes:An analysis based on data from Jiujiang and Xiangyang[J].Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition),2015(5):1-8.
[11]史清华,晋洪涛,卓建伟.征地一定降低农民收入吗:上海7村调查--兼论现行征地制度的缺陷与改革[J].管理世界,2011(3):77-82,91.Shi Q H,Jin H T,Zhuo J W.Does land acquisition necessarily lead to the decline of farmers’income?[J].Management World,2011(3):77-82,91.
[12]镇玲,孙丽丽.城市近郊被征地农户生计变化分析--以武汉市江夏区为例[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2013(5):106-112.Zhen L,Sun L L.Analysis on changes of livelihoods of lost-land farmers in outskirts of city-A case study in Jiangxia County of Wuhan City[J].Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition),2013(5):106-112.
[13]崔宝玉,谢煜,徐英婷.土地征用的农户收入效应--基于倾向得分匹配(PSM)的反事实估计[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(2):111-118.Cui B Y,Xie Y,Xu Y T.The farmers incomes’effect of land acquisition-Based on propensity score matching counterfactual estimate[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2016,26(2):111-118.
[14]汪险生,郭忠兴.被征地农民的收入下降了吗--来自CFPS数据的证据[J].农业技术经济,2017(6):14-27.Wang X S,Guo Z X.Has the income of land-expropriated farmers decreased?Evidence from CFPS data[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2017(6):14-27.
[15]Rosenbaum P R,Rubin D B.The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects[J].Biometrika,1983,70(1):41-55.
[16]马聪,刘黎明,袁承程,等.快速城镇化地区农户生计资本分化特征及其对生计策略的影响--以上海市青浦区为例[J].农业现代化研究,2018,39(2):316-324.Ma C,Liu L M,Yuan C C,et al.The differentiation characteristics of farmers’livelihood capital and their influences on the livelihood strategy in rapid urbanization area:A case study of Qingpu District of Shanghai[J].Research of Agricultural Modernization,2018,39(2):316-324.
[17]黄建伟,喻洁.失地农民关键自然资本的丧失、补偿及其对收入的影响研究--基于七省一市的实地调研[J].探索,2010(4):86-92.Huang J W,Yu J.Study on the loss and compensation of key natural capital of land-losing farmers and its impact on incomeBased on field research in seven provinces and one city[J].Probe,2010(4):86-92.
[18]丁士军,张银银,马志雄.被征地农户生计能力变化研究--基于可持续生计框架的改进[J].农业经济问题,2016,37(6):25-34,110-111.Ding S J,Zhang Y Y,Ma Z X.Research on changes of livelihood capabilities of rural households encountered by land acquisition:Based on improvement of sustainable livelihood approach[J].Issues in Agricultural Economy,2016,37(6):25-34,110-111.
[19]丁士军,杨晶,陈玉萍.基于流动性视角的失地农户收入变化分析--来自襄阳和昆明的证据[J].中国农村观察,2017(1):29-40,141.Ding S J,Yang J,Chen Y P.An analysis on changes in income for rural households affected by land acquisition based on income mobility:Evidence from Xiangyang and Kunming Cities[J].China Rural Survey,2017(1):29-40,141.
[20]苏芳,郑亚萍,周亚雄.农村劳动力转移与农户生计间的影响关系分析--以甘肃省为例[J].干旱区地理,2017,40(4):875-880.Su F,Zheng Y P,Zhou Y X.Relationship analysis between transfer of rural labor and farmers’livelihood:A case of Gansu Province[J].Arid Land Geography,2017,40(4):875-880.
[21]彭继权,吴海涛,孟权.家庭生命周期、社会资本与农户生计策略研究[J].中国农业大学学报,2018,23(9):196-217.Peng J Q,Wu H T,Meng Q.Study on family life cycle,social capital and rural households’livelihood strategy[J].Journal of China Agricultural University 2018,23(9):196-217.
[22]丁士军,杨晶,吴海涛.失地农户收入流动及其影响因素分析[J].中国人口科学,2016(2):116-125,128.Ding S J,Yang J,Wu H T.Analysis of land-expropriated farmers’income mobility and its influence factors[J].Chinese Journal of Population Science,2016(2):116-125,128.
[23]陈乙酉,付园元.农民收入影响因素与对策:一个文献综述[J].改革,2014(9):67-72.Chen Y Y,Fu Y Y.Affecting factors of farmers’income and its countermeasures:A literature review[J].Reform,2014(9):67-72.
[24]胡安宁.倾向值匹配与因果推论:方法论述评[J].社会学研究,2012,27(1):221-242,246.Hu A N.Propensity score matching and causal inference:Amethodological review[J].Sociological Studies,2012,27(1):221-242,246.
[25]张寒,刘璨,刘浩.林地调整对农户营林积极性的因果效应分析--基于异质性视角的倾向值匹配估计[J].农业技术经济,2017(1):37-51.Zhang H,Liu C,Liu H.Analysis of the causal effect of forest land adjustment on farmers’enthusiasm for forest managementEstimation of propensity score matching based on heterogeneity perspective[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2017(1):37-51.
[26]Lian Y,Su Z,Gu Y.Evaluating the effects of equity incentives using PSM:Evidence from China[J].Frontiers of Business Research in China,2011(2):266-290.
[27]温兴祥,杜在超.匹配法综述:方法与应用[J].统计研究,2015,32(4):104-112.Wen X X,Du Z C.Survey on matching method:Theory and applications[J].Statistical Research,2015,32(4):104-112.
[28]陈飞,翟伟娟.农户行为视角下农地流转诱因及其福利效应研究[J].经济研究,2015,50(10):163-177.Chen F,Zhai W J.Land transfer incentive and welfare effect research from perspective of farmers’behavior[J].Economic Research Journal,2015,50(10):163-177.
[29]Sianesi B.An evaluation of the Swedish system of active labor market programs in the 1990s[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,2004,86(1):133-155.
[30]Rubin D B.Using propensity scores to help design observational studies:Application to the tobacco litigation[J].Health Services&Outcomes Research Methodology,2001,2(3/4):169-188.
[31]骆永民,樊丽明.土地:农民增收的保障还是阻碍?[J].经济研究,2015,50(8):146-161.Luo Y M,Fan L M.The role of land in growth of farmers’income:Protection or obstacle?[J].Economic Research Journal,2015,50(8):146-161.
[32]靳相木,陈阳.土地增值收益分配研究路线及其比较[J].经济问题探索,2017(10):1-5.Jin X M,Chen Y.Research routes of the land value-added income distribution and their comparison[J].Inquiry into Economic Issues,2017(10):1-5.