基于Markov过程的水下采油树系统可靠性分析
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摘要
为评估水下采油树系统的可靠性,提出一种基于Markov的水下采油树系统可靠性评估方法。首先,通过研究水下采油树系统的运行状态和故障机制,建立了水下采油树系统的Markov模型并给出相应的解析方程式。其次,以实际水下采油树系统故障数据为基础数据对其可靠性进行了定量分析和计算,求解水下采油树系统的瞬态、稳态可用度区间值;最后,利用该模型进一步分析各状态转移概率对系统可用度的影响,从而为预防故障事件的发生及系统改进措施的提出提供一定的理论依据,并为水下采油树系统国产化设计以及生产工作等提供较为准确的可靠性约束指导。
To evaluate the reliability of subsea X-tree system,a reliability evaluation method for the subsea X-max tree system based on Markov process is proposed.Firstly,the Markov model was established by studying the operation condition and fault mechanism of the subsea X-max tree system and the analytic equation of the model was given.Then,based on the fault data of actual X-max tree systems,their reliability was analyzed and calculated quantitatively,and the transient-state and steady-state availability of the subsea X-max tree systems was obtained.Finally,the effect of state transition probability in the model on the availability of the system were studied,so as to provide a theoretical basis for preventing the occurrence of failure events and proposing measures for the improvement of subsea X-max tree systems,and to provide more accurate reliability constraint guidance for the localization design and production of subsea X-max tree system.
To evaluate the reliability of subsea X-tree system,a reliability evaluation method for the subsea X-max tree system based on Markov process is proposed.Firstly,the Markov model was established by studying the operation condition and fault mechanism of the subsea X-max tree system and the analytic equation of the model was given.Then,based on the fault data of actual X-max tree systems,their reliability was analyzed and calculated quantitatively,and the transient-state and steady-state availability of the subsea X-max tree systems was obtained.Finally,the effect of state transition probability in the model on the availability of the system were studied,so as to provide a theoretical basis for preventing the occurrence of failure events and proposing measures for the improvement of subsea X-max tree systems,and to provide more accurate reliability constraint guidance for the localization design and production of subsea X-max tree system.
引文
[1] GUAN Y H,LUO J M,DUAN M L,et al.Risk analysis of subsea x-mas tree leakage[C].Advances in Structural Engineering and Mechanics,2015.
[2] WANG C Y,ZHANG H H,DUAN M L.Risk assessment of subsea x-tree system[J].Applied Mechanics and Materials,2011:1000-1006.
[3] 罗建梅,段礼祥,段梦兰.基于AHP-TOPSIS综合模型的水下采油树泄漏风险评估[J].安全,2015(7):27-30.LUO Jianmei,DUAN Lixiang,DUAN Menglan.Risk assessment of subsea tree leakage based on AHP-TOPSIS comprehensive model[J].Safety,2015(7):27-30.
[4] OYENEYIN B M.Challenges of deepwater developments[J].Advanced Materials Research,2012,367:367-373.
[5] WU X,XIAO C Y,XU X Y.Research on a nonlinear fuzzy comprehensive assessment method for oil & gas pipeline failure based on fault tree analysis[J].Applied Mechanics and Materials,2012,187(15):304-310.
[6] CHEN Z C,QI H,WEI J,et al.Research on reliability modeling based on reliability block diagram[J].Journal of Engineering Design,2011,18(6):407-411.
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[10] 林秀娟,肖文生.基于灰色系统的深水采油树腐蚀可靠性设计[J].机床与液压,2012,40(5):157-159.LIN Xiujuan,XIAO Wensheng.Corrosion reliability design of subsea tree based on grey system theory[J].Machine Tool and Hydraulics,2012,40(5):157-159.
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[12] STENDEBAKKEN O I.A Reliability Study of a Deepwater Vertical Xmas Tree with Attention to XT Retrieval Rate[D].NTNU,2014:41-45.
[13] LEVINSON S E,RABINER L R,SONDHI M M.An introduction to the application of the theory of probabilistic functions of a Markov process to automatic speech recognition[J].Bell System Technical Journal,1983,62(4):1035-1074.
[14] LIU Z K,LIU Y H,CAI B P.Reliability analysis of the electrical control system of subsea blowout preventers using Markov models[J].Plos One,2014,9(11):1-9.
[15] CAI B P,LIU Y H,LIU Z K,et al.Reliability analysis of subsea blowout preventer control systems subjected to multiple error shocks[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2012,25 (6):1044-1054.
[16] 牛玉广,马骏驰,夏明,等.DCS基本控制单元可靠性建模与定量计算[J].电子测量与仪器学报,2011,25(6):506-511.NIU Yuguang,MA Junchi,XIA Ming,et al.Reliability modeling and quantify calculation of DCS basic control unit[J].Journal of Electronic Measurement and Instrument,2011,25(6):506-511.
[17] OREDA :Offshore Reliability Data Handbook[S].2015,6th edition,Volume II:165-189.
[18] 欧健,李艾华,徐斌,等.基于Markov过程的柴油机监控系统可靠性评估[J].机电工程,2011,28(11):1319-1323.OU Jian,LI Aihua,XU Bin,et al.Reliability assessment for diesel engine monitoring system based on Markov process[J].Mechanical & Electrical Engineering Magazine,2011,28(11):1319-1323.
[19] 于敏,何正友,钱清泉.基于Markov模型的可维修双机热备系统可靠性分析[J].计算机工程与设计,2009,30(8):2040-2042,2046.YU Min,HE Zhengyou,QIAN Qingquan.Reliability analysis of repairable hot stand-by redundant system based on Markov model[J].Computer Engineering and Design,2009,30(8):2040-2042,2046.
[20] ZHANG H L,INNAL F,DUFOUR F,et al.Piecewise deterministic Markov processes based approach applied to an offshore oil production system[J].Reliability Engineering & System Safety,2014,126:126-134.
[2] WANG C Y,ZHANG H H,DUAN M L.Risk assessment of subsea x-tree system[J].Applied Mechanics and Materials,2011:1000-1006.
[3] 罗建梅,段礼祥,段梦兰.基于AHP-TOPSIS综合模型的水下采油树泄漏风险评估[J].安全,2015(7):27-30.LUO Jianmei,DUAN Lixiang,DUAN Menglan.Risk assessment of subsea tree leakage based on AHP-TOPSIS comprehensive model[J].Safety,2015(7):27-30.
[4] OYENEYIN B M.Challenges of deepwater developments[J].Advanced Materials Research,2012,367:367-373.
[5] WU X,XIAO C Y,XU X Y.Research on a nonlinear fuzzy comprehensive assessment method for oil & gas pipeline failure based on fault tree analysis[J].Applied Mechanics and Materials,2012,187(15):304-310.
[6] CHEN Z C,QI H,WEI J,et al.Research on reliability modeling based on reliability block diagram[J].Journal of Engineering Design,2011,18(6):407-411.
[7] SIGNORET J P,DUTUIT Y,CACHEUX P J,et al.Make your Petri nets understandable:Reliability block diagrams driven Petri nets[J].Reliability Engineering & System Safety,2013,113(1):61-75.
[8] CAI B P,LIU Y H,LIU Z K,et al.Application of bayesian networks in reliability evaluation[J].IEEE Transactions on Industrial Informatics,2019,15(4):2146-2157.
[9] KIM S,CHUNG S,YANG Y.Availability analysis of subsea blowout preventer using Markov model considering demand rate[J].International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering,2014,6(4):775-787.
[10] 林秀娟,肖文生.基于灰色系统的深水采油树腐蚀可靠性设计[J].机床与液压,2012,40(5):157-159.LIN Xiujuan,XIAO Wensheng.Corrosion reliability design of subsea tree based on grey system theory[J].Machine Tool and Hydraulics,2012,40(5):157-159.
[11] WANVIK P G.Reliability Assessment of Subsea X-mas Tree Configurations[D].NTNU,2015:151-155.
[12] STENDEBAKKEN O I.A Reliability Study of a Deepwater Vertical Xmas Tree with Attention to XT Retrieval Rate[D].NTNU,2014:41-45.
[13] LEVINSON S E,RABINER L R,SONDHI M M.An introduction to the application of the theory of probabilistic functions of a Markov process to automatic speech recognition[J].Bell System Technical Journal,1983,62(4):1035-1074.
[14] LIU Z K,LIU Y H,CAI B P.Reliability analysis of the electrical control system of subsea blowout preventers using Markov models[J].Plos One,2014,9(11):1-9.
[15] CAI B P,LIU Y H,LIU Z K,et al.Reliability analysis of subsea blowout preventer control systems subjected to multiple error shocks[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2012,25 (6):1044-1054.
[16] 牛玉广,马骏驰,夏明,等.DCS基本控制单元可靠性建模与定量计算[J].电子测量与仪器学报,2011,25(6):506-511.NIU Yuguang,MA Junchi,XIA Ming,et al.Reliability modeling and quantify calculation of DCS basic control unit[J].Journal of Electronic Measurement and Instrument,2011,25(6):506-511.
[17] OREDA :Offshore Reliability Data Handbook[S].2015,6th edition,Volume II:165-189.
[18] 欧健,李艾华,徐斌,等.基于Markov过程的柴油机监控系统可靠性评估[J].机电工程,2011,28(11):1319-1323.OU Jian,LI Aihua,XU Bin,et al.Reliability assessment for diesel engine monitoring system based on Markov process[J].Mechanical & Electrical Engineering Magazine,2011,28(11):1319-1323.
[19] 于敏,何正友,钱清泉.基于Markov模型的可维修双机热备系统可靠性分析[J].计算机工程与设计,2009,30(8):2040-2042,2046.YU Min,HE Zhengyou,QIAN Qingquan.Reliability analysis of repairable hot stand-by redundant system based on Markov model[J].Computer Engineering and Design,2009,30(8):2040-2042,2046.
[20] ZHANG H L,INNAL F,DUFOUR F,et al.Piecewise deterministic Markov processes based approach applied to an offshore oil production system[J].Reliability Engineering & System Safety,2014,126:126-134.