基于江西省雷达回波拼图的TREC方法应用及效果检验
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摘要
基于江西省及周边16部新一代多普勒天气雷达拼图资料,利用交叉相关跟踪法(TREC)计算江西地区雷达回波的移动矢量(TREC风),并对求解的TREC风进行异常值更正和空洞补齐等质量控制,最后利用后向外推法对江西地区2017年6月29日09:54的雷达回波进行2 h内的外推。结果表明,TREC方法能较好地获得江西地区未来2 h内的雷达回波位置和空间结构,且在0—1 h的外推回波非常接近实况。通过对2018年6月1—9日201个天气过程0—2 h外推的TS评分统计表明,基于该方法外推的2 h内的雷达回波精度都较高(TS评分>0.3),但TS评分随外推时间的增长而快速降低,当外推时间为30 min时TS评分高达0.61,外推时间增至60 min时TS评分降至0.48,外推时间延长至120 min时TS评分进一步减至0.31。
Based on 16 Doppler weather radars data in Jiangxi province and surrounding area,the moving vector(TREC wind)of radar echo was calculated by TREC algorithm,and then the quality control of TREC wind was also carried out.Finally,the radar echo of Jiangxi area was extrapolated within 2 hours by using the backward extrapolation method.The result showed that the position and spatial structure of radar echo on June 29,2017 obtained by this extrapolation method within 2 hours were relatively accurate,and the extrapolated echo within1 hour was in good agreement with the observation.By statistically analyzing of the TSscores of radar echo extrapolation for 201 processes within 2 hours during the period of June 1-9,2018,the extrapolated radar echoes within 2 hours presented high accuracy(TSscore>0.3).However,the TSscore decreased rapidly with the increase of extrapolation time.The TSscore can reach 0.61 with the extrapolation time of 30 minutes,which correspondingly decreased to below 0.48 with the extrapolation time of 60 minutes,and the TSscore reduced to less than 0.31 with the extrapolation time of 120 minutes.
Based on 16 Doppler weather radars data in Jiangxi province and surrounding area,the moving vector(TREC wind)of radar echo was calculated by TREC algorithm,and then the quality control of TREC wind was also carried out.Finally,the radar echo of Jiangxi area was extrapolated within 2 hours by using the backward extrapolation method.The result showed that the position and spatial structure of radar echo on June 29,2017 obtained by this extrapolation method within 2 hours were relatively accurate,and the extrapolated echo within1 hour was in good agreement with the observation.By statistically analyzing of the TSscores of radar echo extrapolation for 201 processes within 2 hours during the period of June 1-9,2018,the extrapolated radar echoes within 2 hours presented high accuracy(TSscore>0.3).However,the TSscore decreased rapidly with the increase of extrapolation time.The TSscore can reach 0.61 with the extrapolation time of 30 minutes,which correspondingly decreased to below 0.48 with the extrapolation time of 60 minutes,and the TSscore reduced to less than 0.31 with the extrapolation time of 120 minutes.
引文
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Tuttle J D,Foot G B.1990.Determination of the boundary layer airflow from a single Doppler radar[J].J Atmos Ocean Technol,7(2):218-232.
王改利,刘黎平.2005.多普勒雷达资料在暴雨临近预报中的应用[J].气象,35(10):12-15,97.Wang G L,Liu L P.2005.Application of Doppler radar data to nowcasting of heavy rainfall[J].Meteor Mon,35(10):12-15,97.(in Chinese)
Wong M C,Wong W K,Lai E S T.2006.From SWIRLS to RAP-IDS:Nowcast applications development in Hong Kong[C].WMO PWS Workshop on Warnings of Real-Time Hazards by Using Nowcasting Technology.
易雪婷,邹海波.2017.多普勒天气雷达波束水平距离的计算方法[J].气象与减灾研究,40(4):36-42.Yi X T,Zou H B.2017.Calculation on horizontal distance of Doppler radar beam[J].Meteor Disaster Reduction Res,40(4):36-42.(in Chinese)
曾小团,梁巧倩,农孟松,等.2010.交叉相关算法在强对流天气临近预报中的应用[J].气象,36(1):31-40.Zeng X T,Liang Q Q,Nong M S,et al.2010.Application test of TREC algorithm to severe convective storm nowcasting[J].Meteor Mon,36(1):31-40.(in Chinese)
张沛源,杨洪平,胡绍萍.2008.新一代天气雷达在临近预报和灾害性天气警报中的应用[J].气象,34(1):3-11.Zhang P Y,Yang H P,Hu S P.2008.Applications of new generation weather radar to nowcasting and warning of severe weather[J].Meteor Mon,34(1):3-11.(in Chinese)
智协飞,高洁,张小玲.2010.多普勒雷达资料在中尺度模式短时预报中的应用[J].气象科学,30(2):143-150.Zhi X F,Gao J,Zhang X L.2010.An application of the Doppler radar data in the nowcasting using mesoscale model[J].Scientia Meteor Sinica,30(2):143-150.(in Chinese)
邹海波,单九生,邓诗茹.2014.多普勒雷达资料的网格化研究[J].气象与减灾研究,37(2):23-30.Zou H B,Shan J S,Deng S R.2014.Study of the Doppler radar data gridding[J].Meteor Disaster Reduction Res,37(2):23-30.(in Chinese)
Zou H B,Zhang S W,Liang X D,et al.2018.Improvement in the methods for removing isolated non-meteorological echoes and ground clutter in CINRAD[J].J Meteor Res,32(4):584-597.
陈雷,戴建华,陶岚.2009.一种改进后的交叉相关法(COTREC)在降水临近预报中的应用[J].热带气象学报,25(1):117-122.Chen L,Dai J,Tao L.2009.Application of an improved TRECalgorithm(COTREC)for precipitation nowcast[J].J Trop Meteor,25(1):117-122.(in Chinese)
陈明轩,高峰,孔荣,等.2010.自动临近预报系统及其在北京奥运期间的应用[J].应用气象学报,21(4):395-404.Chen M X,Gao F,Kong R,et al.2010.Introduction of auto-nowcasting system for convective storm and its performance in Beijing Olympics meteorological service[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,21(4):395-404.(in Chinese)
Crane R K.1979.Automatic cell detection and tracking[J].IEEETrans Geosci Electron,17(4):250-262.
Germann U,Zawadzki I.2002.Scale-dependence of the predictability of precipitation from continental radar images.Part I:Description of the methodology[J].Mon Wea Rev,130(12):2859-2873.
郭达烽,包慧濛,周芳,等.2014.空心台风“麦德姆”(2014)引发的江西局地暴雨过程分析[J].气象与减灾研究,37(4):24-32.Guo D F,Bao H M,Zhou F,et al.2014.Analysis of local torrential rain caused by the hollow typhoon“Matmo”[J].Meteor Disaster Reduction Res,37(4):24-32.(in Chinese)
韩雷,王洪庆,谭晓光,等.2007.基于雷达数据的风暴体识别、追踪及预警的研究进展[J].气象,33(1):3-10.Han L,Wang HQ,Tan X G,et al.2007.Review on development of radarbased storm identification,tracking and forecasting[J].Meteor Mon,33(1):3-10.(in Chinese)
黄旋旋,朱科锋,赵坤.2017.改进后TREC外推方法在台风临近降雨预报中的应用[J].气象科学,37(5):610-618.Huang X X,Zhu K F,Zhao K,2017.The improved TREC algorithm and its application to the precipitation now-casting for landfall typhoon[J].Scientia Meteor Sinica,37(5):610-618.(in Chinese)
刘科峰,张韧,孙照渤.2006.基于交叉相关法的卫星云图中云团移动的短时预测[J].中国图象图形学报,11(4):586-591.Liu KF,Zhang R,Sun Z B.2006.A cloud movement short-time forecast based on cross-correlation[J].J Image Graph,1(4):586-591.(in Chinese)
茅懋,戴建华,李佰平,等.2016.不同类型强对流预报产品的目标对象检验与分析评价[J].气象,42(4):389-397.Mao M,Dai JH,Li B P,et al.2016.Object-based verification and evaluation for different types of severe convection forecasting products[J].Meteor Mon,42(4):389-397.(in Chinese)
Mueller C,Saxen T,Roberts R,et al.2014.NCAR auto-nowcast system[J].Wea Forecasting,18(4):545-561.
Rinehart R E,Garvey E T.1978.Three-dimensional storm motion detection by conventional weather radar[J].Nature,273(5660):287-289.
谭振.2011.台风雷达三维组网产品显示技术研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学.Tan Z.2011.Research of the Typhoon and CIN-RAD3D mosaic products display technology[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology.(in Chinese)
Tuttle J D,Foot G B.1990.Determination of the boundary layer airflow from a single Doppler radar[J].J Atmos Ocean Technol,7(2):218-232.
王改利,刘黎平.2005.多普勒雷达资料在暴雨临近预报中的应用[J].气象,35(10):12-15,97.Wang G L,Liu L P.2005.Application of Doppler radar data to nowcasting of heavy rainfall[J].Meteor Mon,35(10):12-15,97.(in Chinese)
Wong M C,Wong W K,Lai E S T.2006.From SWIRLS to RAP-IDS:Nowcast applications development in Hong Kong[C].WMO PWS Workshop on Warnings of Real-Time Hazards by Using Nowcasting Technology.
易雪婷,邹海波.2017.多普勒天气雷达波束水平距离的计算方法[J].气象与减灾研究,40(4):36-42.Yi X T,Zou H B.2017.Calculation on horizontal distance of Doppler radar beam[J].Meteor Disaster Reduction Res,40(4):36-42.(in Chinese)
曾小团,梁巧倩,农孟松,等.2010.交叉相关算法在强对流天气临近预报中的应用[J].气象,36(1):31-40.Zeng X T,Liang Q Q,Nong M S,et al.2010.Application test of TREC algorithm to severe convective storm nowcasting[J].Meteor Mon,36(1):31-40.(in Chinese)
张沛源,杨洪平,胡绍萍.2008.新一代天气雷达在临近预报和灾害性天气警报中的应用[J].气象,34(1):3-11.Zhang P Y,Yang H P,Hu S P.2008.Applications of new generation weather radar to nowcasting and warning of severe weather[J].Meteor Mon,34(1):3-11.(in Chinese)
智协飞,高洁,张小玲.2010.多普勒雷达资料在中尺度模式短时预报中的应用[J].气象科学,30(2):143-150.Zhi X F,Gao J,Zhang X L.2010.An application of the Doppler radar data in the nowcasting using mesoscale model[J].Scientia Meteor Sinica,30(2):143-150.(in Chinese)
邹海波,单九生,邓诗茹.2014.多普勒雷达资料的网格化研究[J].气象与减灾研究,37(2):23-30.Zou H B,Shan J S,Deng S R.2014.Study of the Doppler radar data gridding[J].Meteor Disaster Reduction Res,37(2):23-30.(in Chinese)
Zou H B,Zhang S W,Liang X D,et al.2018.Improvement in the methods for removing isolated non-meteorological echoes and ground clutter in CINRAD[J].J Meteor Res,32(4):584-597.