多普勒雷达资料同化在台风“灿都”(2010)预报中的应用研究
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摘要
文章基于中尺度天气预报模式(WRF)及其三维变分同化系统(WRF-3DVAR),采用了两部雷达径向风资料,进行单一时间分析以初始化台风"灿都"(Chanthu),比较研究了同化雷达径向速度(Vr)对台风"灿都"分析和预报的影响。结果表明:同化雷达径向风的作用主要体现在台风强度和环流结构的调整,且在同化达到一定时长后,对改进同化后的预报分析有积极效应。同化试验改进台风的初始风场以及台风环流中心的热力和动力结构、强度和位置,进而提高18h预报的台风结构、路径、强度。
Based on the WRF(Weather Research and Forecast) model and WRF-3 DVAR(3-Dimensional Variational)assimilation system, we conduct a single time analysis to initialize Typhoon Chanthu and compare the effects of assimilation radar radial velocity(Vr) on Typhoon Chanthu analysis and forecast, with two radar radial wind data. We show that the role of assimilating radar radial wind is mainly reflected in the adjustment of typhoon intensity and circulation structure; and after the assimilation reaches a certain length of time, it has a positive effect on the improvement of forecast. The assimilation test improves the typhoon's initial wind field and the thermal and dynamic structures, intensity, and location of the typhoon circulation center, thereby improving the typhoon structure, path, and intensity predicted for future 18 hours.
Based on the WRF(Weather Research and Forecast) model and WRF-3 DVAR(3-Dimensional Variational)assimilation system, we conduct a single time analysis to initialize Typhoon Chanthu and compare the effects of assimilation radar radial velocity(Vr) on Typhoon Chanthu analysis and forecast, with two radar radial wind data. We show that the role of assimilating radar radial wind is mainly reflected in the adjustment of typhoon intensity and circulation structure; and after the assimilation reaches a certain length of time, it has a positive effect on the improvement of forecast. The assimilation test improves the typhoon's initial wind field and the thermal and dynamic structures, intensity, and location of the typhoon circulation center, thereby improving the typhoon structure, path, and intensity predicted for future 18 hours.
引文
陈锋,冀春晓,董美莹,等,2012.雷达径向风速同化对台风麦莎模拟的影响[J].气象,38(10):1170-1181.CHEN FENG,JI CHUNXIAO,DONG MEIYING,et al,2012.The effects of radar radial velocity data assimilation on the simulation of typhoon Matsa[J].Meteorological Monthly,38(10):1170-1181(in Chinese with English abstract).
陈锋,董美莹,冀春晓,2017.不同资料同化对登陆台风菲特(2013)短时预报的影响研究[J].气象,43(9):1029-1040.CHEN FENG,DONG MEIYING,JI CHUNXIAO,2017.Relative impact from surface,radiosonde,aircraft,satellite,and radar observations on short time forecasting for typhoon Fitow(2013)at landfall[J].Meteorological Monthly,43(9):1029-1040(in Chinese with English abstract).
顾建峰,2006.多普勒雷达资料三维变分直接同化方法研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学.GU JIANFENG,2006.Research on 3D variational direct assimilation method of doppler radar data[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology(in Chinese with English abstract).
官元红,周广庆,陆维松,等,2007.资料同化方法的理论发展及应用综述[J].气象与减灾研究,30(4):1-8.GUANYUANHONG,ZHOU GUANGQING,LU WEISONG,et al,2007.Theory development and application of data assimilation methods[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research,30(4):1-8(in Chinese with English abstract).
李新峰,2012.雷达资料循环同化在台风“莫兰蒂”短时预报中的应用研究[D].南京:南京大学.LI XINFENG,2012.Short-term forecasting through cycling assimilation of China coastal radar data for typhoon Meranti at landfall[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University(in Chinese with English abstract).
李新峰,赵坤,王明筠,等,2013.多普勒雷达资料循环同化在台风“鲇鱼”预报中的应用[J].气象科学,33(3):255-263.LIXINFENG,ZHAO KUN,WANG MINGYUN,et al,2013.Short-term forecasting of super typhoon Megi at landfall through cycling assimilation of China coastal radar data[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,33(3):255-263(in Chinese with English abstract).
林良根,汪瑛,林少冰,2011.台风“灿都”的特点分析[C]//2011年第二十八届中国气象学会年会论文集.厦门:中国气象学会:1-7.LIN LIANGGEN,WANG YING,LIN SHAOBING,2011.Analysis of the typhoon Chanthu[C]//Chinese Meteorological Society.Xiamen:Chinese Meteorological Society:1-7(in Chinese with English abstract).
沈菲菲,闵锦忠,陈鹏,等,2015.多普勒雷达资料同化在台风“桑美”预报中的应用研究[J].海洋学报,37(3):25-36.SHEN FEIFEI,MIN JINZHONG,CHEN PENG,et al,2015.Experiments of assimilating Doppler radar data in forecast of typhoon Saomai[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,37(3):25-36(in Chinese with English abstract).
沈菲菲,闵锦忠,许冬梅,等,2016.双多普勒雷达资料同化在飓风“艾克”预报中的应用研究[J].海洋学报,38(11):60-72.SHEN FEIFEI,MIN JINZHONG,XU DONGMEI,et al,2016.Application of assimilating Dual Doppler radar data in forecast of Hurricane Ike[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,38(11):60-72(in Chinese with English abstract).
盛春岩,薛德强,雷霆,等,2006.雷达资料同化与提高模式水平分辨率对短时预报影响的数值对比试验[J].气象学报,64(3):293-307.SHENG CHUNYAN,XUE DEQIANG,LEITING,et al,2006.Comparative experiments between effects of Doppler radar data assimilation and inceasing horizontal resolution on short-range prediction[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,64(3):293-307(in Chinese with English abstract).
徐广阔,孙建华,赵思雄,2009.基于雷达资料同化的2003年7月一次暴雨过程的数值模拟及分析[J].热带气象学报,25(4):427-434.XU GUANGKUO,SUN JIANHUA,ZHAOSIXIONG,2009.The numerical simulation and analysis of a heavy rainfall in July 2003 based on radar data assimilation[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,25(4):427-434(in Chinese with English abstract).
章国材,2004.美国WRF模式的进展和应用前景[J].气象,30(12):27-31.ZHANG GUOCAI,2004.Progress of weather research and forecast(WRF)model and application in the United States[J].Meteorological Monthly,30(12):27-31(in Chinese with English abstract).
张晗昀,王振会,楚志刚,等,2018.天气雷达反射率资料订正前后在ARPS模式中的同化试验对比[J].气象科学,38(1):57-65.ZHANG HANYUN,WANG ZHENHUI,CHUZHIGANG,et al,2018.Corrected and original weather radar reflectivity data assimilation in numerical model ARPS[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,38(1):57-65(in Chinese with English abstract).
BUEHNER M,2005.Ensemble derived stationary and flow dependent background error covariances:Evaluation in a quasi operational NWP setting[J].Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,131(607):1013-1043.
BUEHNER M,HOUTEKAMER P L,CHARETTE C,et al,2010a.Intercomparison of variational data assimilation and the ensemble Kalman filter for global deterministic NWP.Part I:Description and single-observation experiments[J].Monthly Weather Review,138(5):1550-1566.
BUEHNER M,HOUTEKAMER P L,CHARETTE C,et al,2010b.Intercomparison of variational data assimilation and the ensemble Kalman filter for global deterministic NWP.Part II:One-month experiments with real observations[J].Monthly Weather Review,138(5):1567-1586.
LI YONGZUO,WANG XUGUANG,XUE MING,2012.Assimilation of radar radial velocity data with the WRFhybrid ensemble 3DVAR system for the prediction of Hurricane Ike(2008)[J].Monthly Weather Review,140(11):3507-3524.
SASAKI Y,1970a.Some basic formalisms in numerical variational analysis[J].Monthly Weather Review,98(12):875-883.
SASAKI Y,1970b.Numerical variational analysis formulated under the constraints as determined by longwave equations and a low-pass filter[J].Monthly Weather Review,98(12):884-898.
SHEN FEIFEI,XU DONGMEI,XUE MING,et al,2018.Acomparison between EDA-En Var and ETKF-En Var data assimilation techniques using radar observations at convective scales through a case study of Hurricane Ike(2008)[J].Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics,130(6):649-666.
SKAMAROCK W C,KLEMP J B,DUDHIA J,et al,2005.Adescription of the advanced research WRF version 2[R].Boulder,Colorado,USA:National Center for Atmospheric Research,Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division.
TALAGRAND O,COURTIER P,1987.Variational assimilation of meteorological observations with the adjoint vorticity equation.I:Theory[J].Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,1987,113(478):1311-1328.
WANG MINGJUN,XUE MING,ZHAO KUN,et al,2014.Assimilation of T-TREC-retrieved winds from single-doppler radar with an ensemble Kalman Filter for the forecast of typhoon Jangmi(2008)[J].Monthly Weather Review,142(5):1892-1907.
WANG XUGUANG,2010.Incorporating ensemble covariance in the gridpoint statistical interpolation variational minimization:A mathematical framework[J].Monthly Weather Review,138(7):2990-2995.
XIAO QINGNONG,ZOU XIAOLEI,WANG BIN,2000.Initialization and Simulation of a landfalling hurricane using a variational bogus data assimilation scheme[J].Monthly Weather Review,128(7):2252-2269.
XIAO QINGNONG,KUO Y H,SUM JUANZHEN,et al,2005.Assimilation of doppler radar observations with a regional3DVAR System:impact of doppler velocities on forecasts of a heavy rainfall case[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology,44(6):768-788.
ZHAO KUN,XUE MING,2009.Assimilation of coastal Doppler radar data with the ARPS 3DVAR and cloud analysis for the prediction of Hurricane Ike(2008)[J].Geophysical Research Letters,36(12):L12803.
陈锋,董美莹,冀春晓,2017.不同资料同化对登陆台风菲特(2013)短时预报的影响研究[J].气象,43(9):1029-1040.CHEN FENG,DONG MEIYING,JI CHUNXIAO,2017.Relative impact from surface,radiosonde,aircraft,satellite,and radar observations on short time forecasting for typhoon Fitow(2013)at landfall[J].Meteorological Monthly,43(9):1029-1040(in Chinese with English abstract).
顾建峰,2006.多普勒雷达资料三维变分直接同化方法研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学.GU JIANFENG,2006.Research on 3D variational direct assimilation method of doppler radar data[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology(in Chinese with English abstract).
官元红,周广庆,陆维松,等,2007.资料同化方法的理论发展及应用综述[J].气象与减灾研究,30(4):1-8.GUANYUANHONG,ZHOU GUANGQING,LU WEISONG,et al,2007.Theory development and application of data assimilation methods[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research,30(4):1-8(in Chinese with English abstract).
李新峰,2012.雷达资料循环同化在台风“莫兰蒂”短时预报中的应用研究[D].南京:南京大学.LI XINFENG,2012.Short-term forecasting through cycling assimilation of China coastal radar data for typhoon Meranti at landfall[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University(in Chinese with English abstract).
李新峰,赵坤,王明筠,等,2013.多普勒雷达资料循环同化在台风“鲇鱼”预报中的应用[J].气象科学,33(3):255-263.LIXINFENG,ZHAO KUN,WANG MINGYUN,et al,2013.Short-term forecasting of super typhoon Megi at landfall through cycling assimilation of China coastal radar data[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,33(3):255-263(in Chinese with English abstract).
林良根,汪瑛,林少冰,2011.台风“灿都”的特点分析[C]//2011年第二十八届中国气象学会年会论文集.厦门:中国气象学会:1-7.LIN LIANGGEN,WANG YING,LIN SHAOBING,2011.Analysis of the typhoon Chanthu[C]//Chinese Meteorological Society.Xiamen:Chinese Meteorological Society:1-7(in Chinese with English abstract).
沈菲菲,闵锦忠,陈鹏,等,2015.多普勒雷达资料同化在台风“桑美”预报中的应用研究[J].海洋学报,37(3):25-36.SHEN FEIFEI,MIN JINZHONG,CHEN PENG,et al,2015.Experiments of assimilating Doppler radar data in forecast of typhoon Saomai[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,37(3):25-36(in Chinese with English abstract).
沈菲菲,闵锦忠,许冬梅,等,2016.双多普勒雷达资料同化在飓风“艾克”预报中的应用研究[J].海洋学报,38(11):60-72.SHEN FEIFEI,MIN JINZHONG,XU DONGMEI,et al,2016.Application of assimilating Dual Doppler radar data in forecast of Hurricane Ike[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,38(11):60-72(in Chinese with English abstract).
盛春岩,薛德强,雷霆,等,2006.雷达资料同化与提高模式水平分辨率对短时预报影响的数值对比试验[J].气象学报,64(3):293-307.SHENG CHUNYAN,XUE DEQIANG,LEITING,et al,2006.Comparative experiments between effects of Doppler radar data assimilation and inceasing horizontal resolution on short-range prediction[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,64(3):293-307(in Chinese with English abstract).
徐广阔,孙建华,赵思雄,2009.基于雷达资料同化的2003年7月一次暴雨过程的数值模拟及分析[J].热带气象学报,25(4):427-434.XU GUANGKUO,SUN JIANHUA,ZHAOSIXIONG,2009.The numerical simulation and analysis of a heavy rainfall in July 2003 based on radar data assimilation[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,25(4):427-434(in Chinese with English abstract).
章国材,2004.美国WRF模式的进展和应用前景[J].气象,30(12):27-31.ZHANG GUOCAI,2004.Progress of weather research and forecast(WRF)model and application in the United States[J].Meteorological Monthly,30(12):27-31(in Chinese with English abstract).
张晗昀,王振会,楚志刚,等,2018.天气雷达反射率资料订正前后在ARPS模式中的同化试验对比[J].气象科学,38(1):57-65.ZHANG HANYUN,WANG ZHENHUI,CHUZHIGANG,et al,2018.Corrected and original weather radar reflectivity data assimilation in numerical model ARPS[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,38(1):57-65(in Chinese with English abstract).
BUEHNER M,2005.Ensemble derived stationary and flow dependent background error covariances:Evaluation in a quasi operational NWP setting[J].Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,131(607):1013-1043.
BUEHNER M,HOUTEKAMER P L,CHARETTE C,et al,2010a.Intercomparison of variational data assimilation and the ensemble Kalman filter for global deterministic NWP.Part I:Description and single-observation experiments[J].Monthly Weather Review,138(5):1550-1566.
BUEHNER M,HOUTEKAMER P L,CHARETTE C,et al,2010b.Intercomparison of variational data assimilation and the ensemble Kalman filter for global deterministic NWP.Part II:One-month experiments with real observations[J].Monthly Weather Review,138(5):1567-1586.
LI YONGZUO,WANG XUGUANG,XUE MING,2012.Assimilation of radar radial velocity data with the WRFhybrid ensemble 3DVAR system for the prediction of Hurricane Ike(2008)[J].Monthly Weather Review,140(11):3507-3524.
SASAKI Y,1970a.Some basic formalisms in numerical variational analysis[J].Monthly Weather Review,98(12):875-883.
SASAKI Y,1970b.Numerical variational analysis formulated under the constraints as determined by longwave equations and a low-pass filter[J].Monthly Weather Review,98(12):884-898.
SHEN FEIFEI,XU DONGMEI,XUE MING,et al,2018.Acomparison between EDA-En Var and ETKF-En Var data assimilation techniques using radar observations at convective scales through a case study of Hurricane Ike(2008)[J].Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics,130(6):649-666.
SKAMAROCK W C,KLEMP J B,DUDHIA J,et al,2005.Adescription of the advanced research WRF version 2[R].Boulder,Colorado,USA:National Center for Atmospheric Research,Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division.
TALAGRAND O,COURTIER P,1987.Variational assimilation of meteorological observations with the adjoint vorticity equation.I:Theory[J].Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,1987,113(478):1311-1328.
WANG MINGJUN,XUE MING,ZHAO KUN,et al,2014.Assimilation of T-TREC-retrieved winds from single-doppler radar with an ensemble Kalman Filter for the forecast of typhoon Jangmi(2008)[J].Monthly Weather Review,142(5):1892-1907.
WANG XUGUANG,2010.Incorporating ensemble covariance in the gridpoint statistical interpolation variational minimization:A mathematical framework[J].Monthly Weather Review,138(7):2990-2995.
XIAO QINGNONG,ZOU XIAOLEI,WANG BIN,2000.Initialization and Simulation of a landfalling hurricane using a variational bogus data assimilation scheme[J].Monthly Weather Review,128(7):2252-2269.
XIAO QINGNONG,KUO Y H,SUM JUANZHEN,et al,2005.Assimilation of doppler radar observations with a regional3DVAR System:impact of doppler velocities on forecasts of a heavy rainfall case[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology,44(6):768-788.
ZHAO KUN,XUE MING,2009.Assimilation of coastal Doppler radar data with the ARPS 3DVAR and cloud analysis for the prediction of Hurricane Ike(2008)[J].Geophysical Research Letters,36(12):L12803.