基于PSR和GM(1,1)模型的安徽省土地生态安全预警与分析
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摘要
基于PSR模型和相关统计数据,构建安徽省土地生态安全评价指标体系,采用熵权法对2010—2016年安徽省土地生态安全状况进行评测,运用GM(1,1)模型对2017—2020年土地生态安全状况做出预警。结果表明:安徽省土地生态安全状况从2010年的0.355 (重警)上升到2016年的0.671(中警),土地生态安全状况有所好转,系统压力层、系统状态层以及系统响应层指数均呈上升趋势。2017—2020年的预警值分别为0.776(中警)、0.875(轻警)、0.987(无警)和1.113(无警),表明未来4年安徽省土地生态状况将持续好转。
Based on PSR model and related statistical data,the evaluation index system of land ecological security in Anhui Province was constructed.The ecological security status of Anhui Province was evaluated by entropy method in 2010-2016.The GM(1,1) model was used for early warning of land ecological security status in 2017-2020.The results showed that: The ecological security status of Anhui Province had increased from 0.355(heavy police) in 2010 to 0.671(the middle police) in 2016,and the ecological security of the land has improved.The indexes of system pressure layer,system state layer and system response layer showed an increasing tendency.The warning values are 0.776(middle police),0.875(light police),0.987(no police) and 1.113(no police) during 2017-2020,indicating that the ecological security status of the land will be further improved in the next four years.
Based on PSR model and related statistical data,the evaluation index system of land ecological security in Anhui Province was constructed.The ecological security status of Anhui Province was evaluated by entropy method in 2010-2016.The GM(1,1) model was used for early warning of land ecological security status in 2017-2020.The results showed that: The ecological security status of Anhui Province had increased from 0.355(heavy police) in 2010 to 0.671(the middle police) in 2016,and the ecological security of the land has improved.The indexes of system pressure layer,system state layer and system response layer showed an increasing tendency.The warning values are 0.776(middle police),0.875(light police),0.987(no police) and 1.113(no police) during 2017-2020,indicating that the ecological security status of the land will be further improved in the next four years.
引文
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[3] 范胜龙,杨玉珍,陈训争,等.基于PSR和无偏GM(1,1)模型的福建省耕地生态安全评价与预测[J].中国土地科学,2016,30(9):19-27.
[4] MELESSE A M,KRISHNASWAMY J,ZHANG K.Modeling coastal eutrophication at Florida Bay using neural networks[J].Journal of coastal research,2008,24(S2):190-196.
[5] 徐美,朱翔,刘春腊.基于RBF的湖南省土地生态安全动态预警[J].地理学报,2012,67(10):1411-1422.
[6] 孙云鹏.全球变化背景下辽宁省土地利用生态安全情景分析[J].安徽农业科学,2010,38(24):13150-13153.
[7] 孙鹏,何如海,王其帅,等.合肥市土地生态安全预警及调控研究[J].辽宁工业大学学报(社会科学版),2018,20(2):26-30.
[8] FARHAN A R,LIM S.Vulnerability assessment of ecological conditions in Seribu Islands,Indonesia[J].Ocean & coastal management,2012,65(3):1-14.
[9] 陈美婷.广东省土地生态安全预警初步研究[D].广州:中国科学院广州地球化学研究所,2015.
[10] 熊建华,韩书成.基于熵权法和PSR模型的佛山市土地生态安全评价研究[J].环境科学与管理,2015,40(6):160-164.
[11] 谢嗣频.土地生态安全评价指标体系研究:以无锡市为例[D].南京:南京农业大学,2011.
[12] 韩书成,熊建华,李丹.珠三角城市群土地生态安全评价指标体系研究[J].广东农业科学,2016,43(2):83-88.
[13] 余文波,蔡海生,张莹,等.湖北省土地生态安全预警评价及调控[J].环境科学与技术,2018(2):189-196.