安徽省农村居民生活消费碳排放研究——基于脱钩模型和LMDI的分析
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摘要
2005-2016年安徽省农村居民生活能源消费碳排放与农业经济增长之间的脱钩变化轨迹和LMDI效应显示,碳排放强度、能源强度和经济水平效应对安徽省农村居民生活能源消费碳排放具有正向拉动作用,其中效果较大的是能源强度效应,这是导致安徽省农村居民生活消费碳排放增加的主导因素。能源结构和人口规模效应对安徽省农村居民生活能源消费碳排放起到了抑制作用,其中效果较大的是能源结构效应。
The decoupling change track and the LMDI effect between carbon emission from rural residents' living and energy consumption and agricultural economic growth in Anhui Province from 2005 to 2016 show that, carbon emission intensity, energy intensity and economic level have positive pulling effects on the carbon emission, of which energy intensity is the most significant, making it the leading factor causing the increase in carbon emission. In addition, energy structure and population size have inhibiting effects on the carbon emission, of which energy structure is the most significant.
The decoupling change track and the LMDI effect between carbon emission from rural residents' living and energy consumption and agricultural economic growth in Anhui Province from 2005 to 2016 show that, carbon emission intensity, energy intensity and economic level have positive pulling effects on the carbon emission, of which energy intensity is the most significant, making it the leading factor causing the increase in carbon emission. In addition, energy structure and population size have inhibiting effects on the carbon emission, of which energy structure is the most significant.
引文
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[3] DéMURGER S,MARTIN F.Rural poverty and fuelwood consumption:evidence from Labagoumen Township (China)[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2007(4):1-31.
[4] BALAND J M B,BARDHAN D,DAS S,et al.The environmental impact of poverty:evidence from firewood collection in ruralnepal[J].Economic Development and Cultural Change,2010,59(1):23-61.
[5] WEBER C,MATTHEWS H.Quantifying the global and distributional aspects of American household carbon footprint [J].Ecological Economics,2008,66(2-3):379-391.
[6] KENNY T,GRAY N F.Comparative performance of six carbon footprint models for use in Ireland[J].Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2009,29(1):1-6.
[7] BAIOCCHI G,MINX J.The impact of social factors and consumer behavior on Carbon Dioxideemissions in the United Kingdom[J].Journal of Industrial Ecology,2010,14(1):50-72.
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[11] 陈家瑛,彭希哲,朱勤.家庭模式对碳排放影响的宏观实证分析[J].中国人口科学,2009(5):68-78.
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[13] 冯玲,吝涛,赵千钧.城镇居民生活能耗与碳排放动态特征分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(5):93-100.
[14] 李治,李培,郭菊娥,等.城市家庭碳排放影响因素与跨城市差异分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23 (10):87-94.
[15] 孙涛,赵天燕.我国能源消耗碳排放量测度及其趋势研究审计与经济研究[J].审计与经济研究,2014 (2) :104-111.
[16] 黄芳,江可申.我国居民生活消费碳排放的动态特征及影响因素分析[J].系统工程,2013(1):52-60.
[17] 马晓微,叶弈,杜佳,等.基于投入产出中美居民生活消费间接碳排放研究[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2016(1):24-29.
[18] 王莉,曲建升,刘莉娜,等.1995-2011 年我国城乡居民家庭碳排放的分析与比较[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(5):6-11.
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[20] 徐步然.灰色 GM ( 1,1) 模型在能源消费预测中的应用[J].重庆理工大学学报(自然科学版 ),2014,28(9) :130 -133.
[21] 汪臻,汝醒君.基于指数分解的居民生活用能碳排放影响因素研究[J].生态经济,2015,31(4):51-55.