碳市场和电力市场耦合研究
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摘要
低碳化、清洁化是我国电力行业未来发展的方向。碳市场启动,电力作为试点行业,碳市场和电力市场面临着协调和融合问题。为研究碳市场和电力市场的耦合关系,本文首先分析了碳市场机制的成本节约效应以及与电力市场改革的互动效应;然后给出考虑碳排放价格的电力市场发电电能成本模型——LCOEe;最后以广东省为例,对广东碳市场碳价传导至电价设定情景并进行模拟分析。结果显示,碳市场和电力市场存在相互制约的关系,碳排放外部成本内部化影响电力市场出清电价,而电力市场能够缓解碳市场的减排压力,抑制碳市场的活跃度。两市场的耦合研究对于优化电源结构、促进新能源市场的发展,以及启发政策制定者重视两大市场的协同发展具有非常重要的现实意义。
Low carbonization and cleanliness are the future direction of China's power industry. With the launch of the carbon market that taking the electricity market as pilot, these two markets face coordination and integration issues. In order to study the coupling relationship between carbon market and electricity market, this paper analyzes the cost-reduction effect of carbon market mechanism and the interaction effect with electricity market reform; then conducts the Levelized Cost of Electricity-energy(LCOEe) model to evaluate electricity market cost considering carbon price; finally, taking Guangdong province as an example, the carbon price of Guangdong carbon market is transmitted to the setting scenario of electricity price and simulated analysis is carried out. The results show that there is a mutually restrictive relationship between the carbon market and the electricity market. The internalization of carbon external costs affects the electricity market clearing price. In addition, the electricity market can alleviate the carbon market emission reduction pressure and inhibit the carbon market activity. The coupling study on carbon market and power market plays an important role in optimizing power supply structure and promoting the development of new energy market, which can provide suggestions for the synergic development of China's carbon market and power market.
Low carbonization and cleanliness are the future direction of China's power industry. With the launch of the carbon market that taking the electricity market as pilot, these two markets face coordination and integration issues. In order to study the coupling relationship between carbon market and electricity market, this paper analyzes the cost-reduction effect of carbon market mechanism and the interaction effect with electricity market reform; then conducts the Levelized Cost of Electricity-energy(LCOEe) model to evaluate electricity market cost considering carbon price; finally, taking Guangdong province as an example, the carbon price of Guangdong carbon market is transmitted to the setting scenario of electricity price and simulated analysis is carried out. The results show that there is a mutually restrictive relationship between the carbon market and the electricity market. The internalization of carbon external costs affects the electricity market clearing price. In addition, the electricity market can alleviate the carbon market emission reduction pressure and inhibit the carbon market activity. The coupling study on carbon market and power market plays an important role in optimizing power supply structure and promoting the development of new energy market, which can provide suggestions for the synergic development of China's carbon market and power market.
引文
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[10]中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会,经济体制综合改革司.中共中央国务院关于进一步深化电力体制改革的若干意见(中发[2015]9号)[EB/OL].(2015-03-15). http://tgs.ndrc.gov.cn/zywj/201601/t20160129_773852.html.
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[12] CRAMTON P, MACKEY D J C, OCKENFELS A, et al. Global Carbon Pricing:The Path to Climate Cooperation[M]. Cambridge:The MIT Press, 2017.
[13] SIJM J, CHEN Y, HOBBS B F. The impact of power market structure on CO2 cost pass-through to electricity prices under quantity competition–A theoretical approach[J]. Energy economics, 2012,34(4):1143-1152.
[14] BRANKER K, PATHAK M J M, PEARCE J M. A review of solar photovoltaic levelized cost of electricity[J]. Renewable and sustainable energy reviews, 2011, 15(9):4470-4482.
[15]马超群,莫艳梅.发电企业的竞价博弈分析[J].统计与决策, 2008(15):177-179.
[16]李林,周大为.面向电力市场竞价的燃煤电厂实时发电成本计算模型[J].湖北电力, 2017, 41(12):37-40, 44-44.
[17]国家发改委,国家能源局.国家发改革委、能源局关于:规范优先发电优先购电计划管理的通知[EB/OL].(2019-01-29). http://www.sohu.com/a/292129740_100089986.
[18]碳交易网.广东碳市场电力行业配额分配方法[EB/OL].(2019-03-19).http://www.tanpaifang.com/tanzhibiao/201903/1963307_7.html.
[19]广碳所.知否知否,广东碳价已突破20元关口[EB/OL].(2019-02-22).http://www.tanjiaoyi.com/article-26043-1.html?from=app.
[20]美国环保协会.建言全国碳市场(一):RGGI的借鉴意义和启示[EB/OL].(2017-12-20). http://www.sohu.com/a/211684932_289755.
[2] FABRA N, REGUANT M. Pass-through of emissions costs in electricity markets[J]. American economic review, 2014, 104(9):2872-2899.
[3] CHERNYAVS'KA L, GULLéF. Marginal CO2 cost pass-through under imperfect competition in power markets[J]. Ecological economics,2008, 68(1-2):408-421.
[4] SIJM J, NEUHOFF K, CHEN Y. CO2 cost pass-through and windfall profits in the power sector[J]. Climate policy, 2006, 6(1):49-72.
[5] ZACHMANN G, VON HIRSCHHAUSEN C. First evidence of asymmetric cost pass-through of EU emissions allowances:examining wholesale electricity prices in Germany[J]. Economics letters, 2008, 99(3):465-469.
[6]袁家海,吴梦雅.中国煤电企业环境压力测试[J].中国环境管理, 2018,10(6):43-54.
[7]袁家海,郭宇.中国大型发电上市公司ESG评价体系开发与分值研究[J].中国环境管理, 2018, 10(5):50-58.
[8]美国环保协会.碳市场与电力市场耦合共推电力行业低碳发展[EB/OL].(2019-04-11). http://greenfinance.xinhua08.com/a/20190411/1815216.shtml.
[9]国家发展改革委.全国碳排放权交易市场建设方案(发电行业)[EB/OL].(2017-12-18). http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/zcfb/gfxwj/201712/W020171220566893899825.pdf.
[10]中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会,经济体制综合改革司.中共中央国务院关于进一步深化电力体制改革的若干意见(中发[2015]9号)[EB/OL].(2015-03-15). http://tgs.ndrc.gov.cn/zywj/201601/t20160129_773852.html.
[11]碳交易网.碳市场给我国电力行业带来的挑战有哪些?[EB/OL].(2014-12-21). http://www.tanpaifang.com/tanguwen/2014/1221/41047.html.
[12] CRAMTON P, MACKEY D J C, OCKENFELS A, et al. Global Carbon Pricing:The Path to Climate Cooperation[M]. Cambridge:The MIT Press, 2017.
[13] SIJM J, CHEN Y, HOBBS B F. The impact of power market structure on CO2 cost pass-through to electricity prices under quantity competition–A theoretical approach[J]. Energy economics, 2012,34(4):1143-1152.
[14] BRANKER K, PATHAK M J M, PEARCE J M. A review of solar photovoltaic levelized cost of electricity[J]. Renewable and sustainable energy reviews, 2011, 15(9):4470-4482.
[15]马超群,莫艳梅.发电企业的竞价博弈分析[J].统计与决策, 2008(15):177-179.
[16]李林,周大为.面向电力市场竞价的燃煤电厂实时发电成本计算模型[J].湖北电力, 2017, 41(12):37-40, 44-44.
[17]国家发改委,国家能源局.国家发改革委、能源局关于:规范优先发电优先购电计划管理的通知[EB/OL].(2019-01-29). http://www.sohu.com/a/292129740_100089986.
[18]碳交易网.广东碳市场电力行业配额分配方法[EB/OL].(2019-03-19).http://www.tanpaifang.com/tanzhibiao/201903/1963307_7.html.
[19]广碳所.知否知否,广东碳价已突破20元关口[EB/OL].(2019-02-22).http://www.tanjiaoyi.com/article-26043-1.html?from=app.
[20]美国环保协会.建言全国碳市场(一):RGGI的借鉴意义和启示[EB/OL].(2017-12-20). http://www.sohu.com/a/211684932_289755.