山区线性工程地质灾害风险动态评价方法及应用
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摘要
线性工程的路线长(如输变电、道路、管线工程等),特别是在地质环境条件复杂的山区,工程建设及运营期间遭受地质灾害威胁的风险大,防范管理的难度大,进行动态评价是防范风险的有效途径,也将是今后研究的主要趋势。结合藏中电力联网输变电工程地质灾害风险管理,提出了基于InSAR监测技术、考虑斜坡活动性的地质灾害风险动态评价方法。该方法构建了考虑斜坡活动性的危险性评价指标体系,建立了可以动态更新的加权信息量评价模型,针对电网工程输电塔位这一核心易损目标,初步实现了山区线性工程地质灾害风险动态评价,最后采用历史灾害分布和ROC曲线对比验证了评价方法的可行性,对于山区线性工程建设风险管理具有推广应用价值。
Because of the long distance of linear engineering,especially in the mountainous areas with complex geological conditions,the risk of geological hazards during the construction and operation of such projects is great.Thus risk prevention and management is very difficult.Under these circumstances,dynamic evaluation is an effective way to prevent risk,and it is also the main trend of future research.In order to prevent the geological hazard risk of Power Grid Engineering in Tibet,this paper proposes a dynamic evaluation method of geological hazard risk based on InSAR monitoring technology and considering the stability of slopes.This method constructs a risk assessment index system for slope activity,and a weighted information evaluation model for dynamic updating is established.Considering the core vulnerable target of transmission tower position in Power Grid Engineering,the risk dynamic evaluation of linear engineering geological hazard in mountainous area is preliminarily realized.Finally,the comparison of historical disaster distribution and ROC curve is used to verify the feasibility of the evaluation method.The results can be applied to the dynamic management of the risk of linear engineering construction in mountainous areas.
Because of the long distance of linear engineering,especially in the mountainous areas with complex geological conditions,the risk of geological hazards during the construction and operation of such projects is great.Thus risk prevention and management is very difficult.Under these circumstances,dynamic evaluation is an effective way to prevent risk,and it is also the main trend of future research.In order to prevent the geological hazard risk of Power Grid Engineering in Tibet,this paper proposes a dynamic evaluation method of geological hazard risk based on InSAR monitoring technology and considering the stability of slopes.This method constructs a risk assessment index system for slope activity,and a weighted information evaluation model for dynamic updating is established.Considering the core vulnerable target of transmission tower position in Power Grid Engineering,the risk dynamic evaluation of linear engineering geological hazard in mountainous area is preliminarily realized.Finally,the comparison of historical disaster distribution and ROC curve is used to verify the feasibility of the evaluation method.The results can be applied to the dynamic management of the risk of linear engineering construction in mountainous areas.
引文
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[17]李瑞娥,谢永利,张小荣.黄土地区公路工程分区中地表形态指数的计算[J].长安大学学报自然科学版,2016,36(2):35-43.Li R E,Xie Y L,Zhang X R.Calculation of surface morphology index in highway engineering zoning of loess area[J].Journal of Chang'an University(Natural Science Edition),2016,36(2):35-43.(in Chinese)
[18]Satty T L.The analytic hierarchy process:Planning,priority setting,resource allocation[M].New York:McGraw-Hill International Book Company,1980.
[19]屈飞行,汤明高,王自高,等.地质灾害危险性区划中不同权重计算方法的对比分析[J].水利水电技术,2016,47(11):136-140.Qu F X,Tang M G,Wang Z G,et al.Comparative analysis on different methods for weight calculation in geohazard risk zoning[J].Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,2016,47(11):136-140.(in Chinese)
[20]刘洋,唐川,冯毅.基于AHP-信息量法的地质灾害危险性评价[J].地球与环境,2013,41(2):173-179.Liu Y,Tang Ch,Feng Y.Geological disaster risk assessment based on AHP information method[J].Earth and Environment,2013,41(2):173-179.(in Chinese)
[21]孟庆华.秦岭山区地质灾害风险评估方法研究[D].北京:中国地质科学院,2011.Meng Q H.Study on th a methods of geo-hazards risk assessment in Qinling mountain[D].Beijing:Chinese academy of Geological Sciences,2011.(in Chinese)
[22]Kamp U,Growley B J,Khattak G A,et al.GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping for the 2005Kashmir earthquake region[J].Geomorphology,2008,101(4):631-642.
[23]许冲.实际滑坡是滑坡危险性评价结果合理性检验最好的标准[J].工程地质学报,2013,21(6):908-911.Xu Ch.Actual landslide as most objective standard for validation of landslide hazard assessment result[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2013,21(6):908-911.(in Chinese)
[24]范强,巨能攀,向喜琼,等.证据权法在区域滑坡危险性评价中的应用---以贵州省为例[J].工程地质学报,2014,22(3):474-481.Fan Q,Ju N P,Xiang X Q,et al.Landslides hazards assessment with weights of evidence--a case study in GuiZhou,China[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2014,22(3):474-481.(in Chinese)
[25]蔡向阳,铁永波.我国山区城镇地质灾害易损性评价研究现状与趋势[J].灾害学,2016,31(4):200-204.Cai X Y,Tie Y B.Progress of urban geological disaster vulnerability assessment in domestic[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2016,31(4):200-204.(in Chinese)
[26]刘希林,王小丹.云南省泥石流风险区划[J].水土保持学报,2000,14(3):104-107.Liu X L,Wang X D.Risk zonation of debris flow in Yunnan province[J].Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,2000,14(3):104-107.(in Chinese)
[2]殷坤龙,张桂荣,陈丽霞,等.滑坡灾害风险分析[M].北京:科学出版社,2010.Yin K L,Zhang G R,Chen L X,et al.Risk analysis of landslide disaster[M].Beijing:Science Press,2010.(in Chinese)
[3]齐信,唐川,陈州丰,等.地质灾害风险评价研究[J].自然灾害学报,2012,21(5):33-40.Qin X,Tang Ch,Chen Zh F,et al.Research of geohazards risk assessment[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2012,21(5):33-40.(in Chinese)
[4]Varnes D J.Landslide hazard zonation:a review of principles and practice[J];UNESCO,Natural Hazards,1984,(3):1-6.
[5]Anbalagan R,Singh B.Landslide hazard and risk assessment mapping ofmountainous terrains-a case study from Kumaun Himalaya,India[J].Engineering Geology,1996,43(4):237-246.
[6]Ragozin A L R.Landslide hazard vulnerability and risk assessment[C]∥Proceedings of the 8th International Symposium on Landslides.London:Thomas Telford,2000:1 255-1 261.
[7]Qiao J,Pu X,Wang M,et al.A study on characteristics of distribution of earthquake-induced landslides and hazard zoning[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2009,24(2):25-29.
[8]刘艺梁,殷坤龙,刘斌.逻辑回归和人工神经网络模型在滑坡灾害空间预测中的应用[J].水文地质工程地质,2010,37(5):92-96.Liu Y L,Yin K L,Liu B.Application of logistic regression and artificial neural networks in spatial assessment of landslide hazards[J].Hydrogeology&Engineering Geology,2010,37(5):92-96.(in Chinese)
[9]Mejia-Navarro M,Wohl E E.Geological hazard and risk evaluation using GIS:methodology and model applied to medellin,colombia[J].Environmental&Engineering Geoscience,1994,31(4):459-481.
[10]Ayalew L,Yamagishi H.The application of GIS-based logistic regression for landslide susceptibility mapping in the Kakuda-Yahiko Mountains,Central Japan[J].Geomorphology,2005,65(1-2):15-31.
[11]石菊松,张永双,董诚,等.基于GIS技术的巴东新城区滑坡灾害危险性区划[J].地球学报,2005,26(3):275-282.Shi J S,Zhang Y Sh,Dong Ch,et al.GIS-based landslide hazard zonation of the new Badong county site[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,2005,26(3):275-282.(in Chinese)
[12]周建民.InSAR技术及其在地表形变监测中的应用研究[D].南京:河海大学,2006.Zhou J M.SAR interferometry for surface deformation monitoring[D].Nanjing:Hohai University,2006.(in Chinese)
[13]Chen Z.Application and development of remote sensing technology in environmental monitoring[J].Environmental Science and Technology,2011,24(Sup1):139-144.(in Chinese)
[14]张倬元,董孝壁,刘汉超.世界滑坡目录工作组建议的滑坡术语[J].地质灾害与环境保护,1995,6(1):1-6.Zhang Zh Y,Dong X B,Liu H Ch.The multiligual landslide glossary suggested by WP/WLI[J].Journal of Geological Hazards and Environment Preservation,1995,6(1):1-6.(in Chinese)
[15]Salt G.滑坡活动性及其治理措施[J].水文地质工程地质译丛,1990,(6):15-22.Salt G.Landslide activity and its control measures[J].Hydrogeology&Engineering Geology,1990(6):15-22.(in Chinese)
[16]许强,汤明高,徐开祥,等.滑坡时空演化规律及预警预报研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(6):1 104-1 112.Xu Q,Tang M G,Xu K X,et al.Research on spacetime evolution laws and early warning-prediction of landslides[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2008,27(6):1 104-1 112.(in Chinese)
[17]李瑞娥,谢永利,张小荣.黄土地区公路工程分区中地表形态指数的计算[J].长安大学学报自然科学版,2016,36(2):35-43.Li R E,Xie Y L,Zhang X R.Calculation of surface morphology index in highway engineering zoning of loess area[J].Journal of Chang'an University(Natural Science Edition),2016,36(2):35-43.(in Chinese)
[18]Satty T L.The analytic hierarchy process:Planning,priority setting,resource allocation[M].New York:McGraw-Hill International Book Company,1980.
[19]屈飞行,汤明高,王自高,等.地质灾害危险性区划中不同权重计算方法的对比分析[J].水利水电技术,2016,47(11):136-140.Qu F X,Tang M G,Wang Z G,et al.Comparative analysis on different methods for weight calculation in geohazard risk zoning[J].Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,2016,47(11):136-140.(in Chinese)
[20]刘洋,唐川,冯毅.基于AHP-信息量法的地质灾害危险性评价[J].地球与环境,2013,41(2):173-179.Liu Y,Tang Ch,Feng Y.Geological disaster risk assessment based on AHP information method[J].Earth and Environment,2013,41(2):173-179.(in Chinese)
[21]孟庆华.秦岭山区地质灾害风险评估方法研究[D].北京:中国地质科学院,2011.Meng Q H.Study on th a methods of geo-hazards risk assessment in Qinling mountain[D].Beijing:Chinese academy of Geological Sciences,2011.(in Chinese)
[22]Kamp U,Growley B J,Khattak G A,et al.GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping for the 2005Kashmir earthquake region[J].Geomorphology,2008,101(4):631-642.
[23]许冲.实际滑坡是滑坡危险性评价结果合理性检验最好的标准[J].工程地质学报,2013,21(6):908-911.Xu Ch.Actual landslide as most objective standard for validation of landslide hazard assessment result[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2013,21(6):908-911.(in Chinese)
[24]范强,巨能攀,向喜琼,等.证据权法在区域滑坡危险性评价中的应用---以贵州省为例[J].工程地质学报,2014,22(3):474-481.Fan Q,Ju N P,Xiang X Q,et al.Landslides hazards assessment with weights of evidence--a case study in GuiZhou,China[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2014,22(3):474-481.(in Chinese)
[25]蔡向阳,铁永波.我国山区城镇地质灾害易损性评价研究现状与趋势[J].灾害学,2016,31(4):200-204.Cai X Y,Tie Y B.Progress of urban geological disaster vulnerability assessment in domestic[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2016,31(4):200-204.(in Chinese)
[26]刘希林,王小丹.云南省泥石流风险区划[J].水土保持学报,2000,14(3):104-107.Liu X L,Wang X D.Risk zonation of debris flow in Yunnan province[J].Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,2000,14(3):104-107.(in Chinese)
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