基于玻尔兹曼分布的南方电网供电区域碳排放配额分配研究
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摘要
以南方电网供电区域的5个省份,即广东、广西、云南、贵州和海南为研究对象,借助玻尔兹曼分布的碳排放配额分配模型对该区域的碳排放配额进行分析研究,具体分析了玻尔兹曼分布参数和碳排放配额以及碳排放需求之间的关系,并比较分析了基于玻尔兹曼分布的碳配额分配结果和基于历史排放法的碳配额分配结果。结果表明:中国南方电网供电区域的碳排放配额主要被两个省份影响,即贵州省和广东省。拥有最大全部碳排放量的广东省和拥有最大人均碳排放量的贵州省,二者之间的碳减排责任转移问题也可由模型中的玻尔兹曼分布参数β值确定。与历史排放法相比,基于玻尔兹曼分布的碳排放配额分配方法的碳排放配额和碳排放需求的差值比率波动范围较小,表明该方法更加符合公平原则。该方法对于南方电网供电区域中碳排放配额机制的制定和占据碳排放总量较大比例的电力行业的碳减排研究提供了一些参考。
The study investigates allocation of CO_2 Emission Permits based on Boltzmann distribution model for power supply areas of China Southern Power Grid Company Limited( CSG) throughout Guangdong,Guangxi,Yunnan,Guizhou and Hainan Provinces. The relationship between Boltzmann distribution parameters and carbon emission quotas and carbon emission demand is analyzed in detail,and the results of carbon quota allocation based on Boltzmann distribution and carbon quota allocation based on historical emission method are compared and analyzed. Research shows that,allocation of CO_2 Emission Permits in the areas is mainly influenced by Guangdong province and Guangxi province with Guangdong being with the largest total carbon emissions and Guangxi being with the largest per capita carbon emissions. The transfer of responsibility for carbon emission reduction between the two can be determined by parameter β from the Boltzmann distribution model. Compared with the historical emission method,the difference ratio of allocation of CO_2 emission permits based on Boltzmann distribution fluctuates in a smaller range,which shows that the method is more in line with the principle of fairness. The findings of the paper have policy implications and reference significance for the optimization of allocation of CO_2 Emission Permits and carbon emission reduction research.
The study investigates allocation of CO_2 Emission Permits based on Boltzmann distribution model for power supply areas of China Southern Power Grid Company Limited( CSG) throughout Guangdong,Guangxi,Yunnan,Guizhou and Hainan Provinces. The relationship between Boltzmann distribution parameters and carbon emission quotas and carbon emission demand is analyzed in detail,and the results of carbon quota allocation based on Boltzmann distribution and carbon quota allocation based on historical emission method are compared and analyzed. Research shows that,allocation of CO_2 Emission Permits in the areas is mainly influenced by Guangdong province and Guangxi province with Guangdong being with the largest total carbon emissions and Guangxi being with the largest per capita carbon emissions. The transfer of responsibility for carbon emission reduction between the two can be determined by parameter β from the Boltzmann distribution model. Compared with the historical emission method,the difference ratio of allocation of CO_2 emission permits based on Boltzmann distribution fluctuates in a smaller range,which shows that the method is more in line with the principle of fairness. The findings of the paper have policy implications and reference significance for the optimization of allocation of CO_2 Emission Permits and carbon emission reduction research.
引文
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[2]IPCC. Climate change 2014:Mitigation of climate change[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2014.
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[6]Petrescu,L.,Cormos,C. C. Waste reduction(WAR)algorithm applied for environmental impact assessment of coal gasification with carbon capture and storage[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2015,104(01):220-235.
[7]Yu,L.,Li,Y. P.,Huang,G. H.,et al. Planning carbon dioxide mitigation of Qingdao's electric power systems under dual uncertainties[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2016,139:473-487.
[8]张潇,邵鑫潇,蒋惠琴.行业碳排放权的初始配额分配——文献综述[J].资源开发与市场,2018,34(11):1520-1525.
[9]González-Eguino,M. The importance of the design of market-based instruments for CO2mitigation:An AGE analysis for Spain[J]. Ecological Economics,2011,70(12):2292-2302.
[10]Sartor,O.,Pallière,C.,Lecourt,S. Benchmark-based allocations in EU ETS Phase 3:an early assessment[J]. Climate policy,2014,14(04):507-524.
[11]Liu,L.,Chen,C.,Zhao,Y.,et al. China’s carbon-emissions trading:Overview,challenges and future[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2015,49:254-266.
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[14]张俊荣,王孜丹,汤铃,等.基于系统动力学的京津冀碳排放交易政策影响研究[J].中国管理科学,2016,24(03):1-8.
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[16]Convery,F. J. Origins and Development of the EU ETS[J]. Environmental and Resource Economics,2009,43(03):391-412.
[17]Westner,G.,Madlener,R. The impact of modified EU ETS allocation principles on the economics of CHP-based district heating systems[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2012,20(01):47-60.
[18]Fan,J. H.,Akimov,A.,Roca,E. Dynamic hedge ratio estimations in the European Union Emissions offset credit market[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2013,42:254-262.
[19]Uddin,N.,Holtedahl,P. Emission trading schemes-avenues for unified accounting practices[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2013,52:46-52.
[20]Tanaka,M.,Chen,Y. Market power in emissions trading:Strategically manipulating permit price through fringe firms[J]. Applied energy,2012,96:203-211.
[21]Ji,J.,Zhang,Z.,Yang,L. Comparisons of initial carbon allowance allocation rules in an O2O retail supply chain with the cap-and-trade regulation[J]. International Journal of Production Economics,2017,187:68-84.
[22]Xiong,L.,Shen,B.,Qi,S.,et al. The allowance mechanism of China’s carbon trading pilots:A comparative analysis with schemes in EU and California[J]. Applied Energy,2017,185:1849-1859.
[23]Persson,T. A.,Azar,C.,Lindgren,K. Allocation of CO2emission permits—economic incentives for emission reductions in developing countries[J]. Energy Policy,2006,34(14):1889-1899.
[24]Ding,Z.,Duan,X. N.,Ge,Q,S.,et al. Control of atmospheric CO2concentrations by 2050:A calculation on the emission rights of different countries[J]. Science in China Series D:Earth Sciences,2009,52(10):1447.
[25]Pan,X.,Teng,F.,Wang,G. Sharing emission space at an equitable basis:allocation scheme based on the equal cumulative emission per capita principle[J]. Applied Energy,2014,113:1810-1818.
[26]Wei,C.,Ni,J.,Du,L. Regional allocation of carbon dioxide abatement in China[J]. China Economic Review,2012,23(03):552-565.
[27]Zhang,Y. J.,Wang,A. D.,Da,Y. B. Regional allocation of carbon emission quotas in China:Evidence from the Shapley value method[J]. Energy Policy,2014,74:454-464.
[28]Yu,S.,Wei,Y. M.,Wang,K. Provincial allocation of carbon emission reduction targets in China:an approach based on improved fuzzy cluster and Shapley value decomposition[J]. Energy Policy,2014,66:630-644.
[29]B9hringer,C.,Lange,A. On the design of optimal grandfathering schemes for emission allowances[J]. European Economic Review,2005,49(08):2041-2055.
[30]Neuhoff,K.,Martinez,K. K.,Sato,M. Allocation,incentives and distortions:the impact of EU ETS emissions allowance allocations to the electricity sector[J]. Climate Policy,2006,6(01):73-91.
[31]李军,王善勇,范进,等.个人碳交易机制对消费者能源消费影响研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2016,36(01):77-85.
[32]Li,W.,Jia,Z. The impact of emission trading scheme and the ratio of free quota:A dynamic recursive CGE model in China[J]. Applied Energy,2016,174:1-14.
[33]Jiang,C.,Xue,Y.,Huang,J.,et al. Aggregated impact of allowance allocation and power dispatching on emission reduction[J]. Journal of Modern Power Systems&Clean Energy,2017,5(24):1-11.
[34]Hu,F.,Hughes,K. J.,Ma,L.,et al. Combined economic and emission dispatch considering conventional and wind power generating units[J]. International Transactions on Electrical Energy Systems,2017,27(12):e2424.
[35]Liao,Z.,Zhu,X.,Shi,J. Case study on initial allocation of Shanghai carbon emission trading based on Shapley value[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2015,103:338-344.
[36]Zhang,L.,Li,Y.,Jia,Z. Impact of carbon allowance allocation on power industry in China’s carbon trading market:Computable general equilibrium based analysis[J]. Applied energy,2018,229:814-827
[37]Zhu,B.,Jiang,M.,He,K.,et al. Allocating CO2allowances to emitters in China:A multi-objective decision approach[J]. Energy policy,2018,121:441-451.
[38]Huang,Q.,Feng,Q.,Tian,Y.,et al. Equilibrium Strategy-Based Optimization Method for Carbon Emission Quota Allocation in Conventional Power Plants[J]. Sustainability,2018,10(09):3195.
[39]Meng,M.,Wang,L.,Chen,Q. Quota Allocation for Carbon Emissions in China’s Electric Power Industry Based Upon the Fairness Principle[J]. Energies,2018,11(09):2256.
[40]Yu,Z.,Geng,Y.,Dai,H.,et al. A general equilibrium analysis on the impacts of regional and sectoral emission allowance allocation at carbon trading market[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,192:421-432.
[41]Feng,Q.,Huang,Q.,Zheng,Q.,et al. New Carbon Emissions Allowance Allocation Method Based on Equilibrium Strategy for Carbon Emission Mitigation in the Coal-Fired Power Industry[J]. Sustainability,2018,10(08):2923.
[42]Ma,C. Q.,Ren,Y. S.,Zhang,Y. J.,et al. The allocation of carbon emission quotas to five major power generation corporations in China[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,189:1-12.
[43]Dong,F.,Long,R.,Yu,B.,et al. How can China allocate CO2reduction targets at the provincial level considering both equity and efficiency? Evidence from its Copenhagen Accord pledge[J]. Resources,Conservation and Recycling,2018,130:31-43.
[44]Qin,Q.,Liu,Y.,Li,X.,et al. A multi-criteria decision analysis model for carbon emission quota allocation in China's east coastal areas:Efficiency and equity[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,168:410-419.
[45]Jiang,H.,Shao,X.,Zhang,X.,et al. A Study of the Allocation of Carbon Emission Permits among the Provinces of China Based on Fairness and Efficiency[J]. Sustainability,2017,9(11):2122.
[46]Li,L.,Li,Y.,Ye,F.,et al. Carbon dioxide emissions quotas allocation in the Pearl River Delta region:Evidence from the maximum deviation method[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,177:207-217.
[47]Zhou,P.,Wang,M. Carbon dioxide emissions allocation:A review[J]. Ecological Economics,2016,125:47-59.
[48]Wang,Y.,Zhao,H.,Duan,F.,et al. Initial Provincial Allocation and Equity Evaluation of China’s Carbon Emission Rights—Based on the Improved TOPSIS Method[J]. Sustainability,2018,10(04):982.
[49]Miao,Z.,Geng,Y.,Sheng,J. Efficient allocation of CO2emissions in China:a zero sum gains data envelopment model[J]. Journal of cleaner production,2016,112:4144-4150.
[50]王庆山,李健.弱关联性约束下中国试点省市碳排放权分配效率研究[J].软科学,2016,30(03):81-84+107.
[51]Hahn,R. W.,Stavins,R. N. The effect of allowance allocations on cap-and-trade system performance[J]. The Journal of Law and Economics,2011,54(S4):S267-S294.
[52]Sauma,E. E. Valuation of the Economic Impact of the Initial Allocation of Tradable Emission Permits in Air Pollution Control[J]. Journal of Energy Engineering,2011,137(01):11-20.
[53]陈晓红,汪静,胡东滨.碳配额免费分配法下寻租对市场运行效率影响[J].系统工程理论与实践,2018,38(01):93-101.
[54]Park,J. W.,Kim,C. U.,Isard,W. Permit allocation in emissions trading using the Boltzmann distribution[J]. Physica A Statistical Mechanics&Its Applications,2012,391(20):4883-4890.
[55]周德群,王梅,张钦.基于熵的区域碳排放总量企业间分配研究[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2015,17(03):16-22.
[56]Li,Y.,Li,Z.,Wu,M.,et al. Regional-Level Allocation of CO2Emission Permits in China:Evidence from the Boltzmann Distribution Method[J]. Sustainability,2018,10(08):2612.
[57]Wang,T.,Wang,X.,Gong,Y.,et al. Initial allocation of carbon emission permits in power systems[J]. Journal of Modern Power Systems&Clean Energy,2017,5(02):239-247.
[58]Xu,J.,Yang,X.,Tao,Z. A tripartite equilibrium for carbon emission allowance allocation in the power-supply industry[J]. Energy Policy,2015,82:62-80.
[59]Reif,B. F. Fundamentals of Statistical and Thermal Physics[J]. Physics Today,1967,20(12):85-87.
[60]Wannier,G. H. Statistical physics[J]. Physics Today,1967,20(05):79-80.
(1)http://www.tanjiaoyi.com/article-3075-1.html
[2]IPCC. Climate change 2014:Mitigation of climate change[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2014.
[3]Zhou,X.,Guan,X.,Zhang,M.,et al. Allocation and simulation study of carbon emission quotas among China’s provinces in 2020[J]. Environmental Science and Pollution Research,2017,24(08):7088-7113.
[4]中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会.我国提交应对气候变化国家自主贡献文件[EBOL].(2015-06-30)[2018-10-10]. http://www. ndrc. gov. cn/xwzx/xwfb/201506/tro150630-710204. html.
[5]Murray,B.,Rivers,N. British Columbia’s revenue-neutral carbon tax:A review of the latest“grand experiment”in environmental policy[J].Energy Policy,2015,86:674-683.
[6]Petrescu,L.,Cormos,C. C. Waste reduction(WAR)algorithm applied for environmental impact assessment of coal gasification with carbon capture and storage[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2015,104(01):220-235.
[7]Yu,L.,Li,Y. P.,Huang,G. H.,et al. Planning carbon dioxide mitigation of Qingdao's electric power systems under dual uncertainties[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2016,139:473-487.
[8]张潇,邵鑫潇,蒋惠琴.行业碳排放权的初始配额分配——文献综述[J].资源开发与市场,2018,34(11):1520-1525.
[9]González-Eguino,M. The importance of the design of market-based instruments for CO2mitigation:An AGE analysis for Spain[J]. Ecological Economics,2011,70(12):2292-2302.
[10]Sartor,O.,Pallière,C.,Lecourt,S. Benchmark-based allocations in EU ETS Phase 3:an early assessment[J]. Climate policy,2014,14(04):507-524.
[11]Liu,L.,Chen,C.,Zhao,Y.,et al. China’s carbon-emissions trading:Overview,challenges and future[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2015,49:254-266.
[12]Wu,R.,Dai,H.,Geng,Y.,et al. Achieving China’s INDC through carbon cap-and-trade:Insights from Shanghai[J]. Applied energy,2016,184:1114-1122.
[13]Liu,X.,Wang,B.,Du,M.,et al. Potential economic gains and emissions reduction on carbon emissions trading for China’s large-scale thermal power plants[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,204:247-257.
[14]张俊荣,王孜丹,汤铃,等.基于系统动力学的京津冀碳排放交易政策影响研究[J].中国管理科学,2016,24(03):1-8.
[15]Ellerman,A. D.,Buchner,B. K. Over-Allocation or Abatement? A Preliminary Analysis of the EU ETS Based on the 2005–06 Emissions Data[J]. Environmental and Resource Economics,2008,41(02):267-287.
[16]Convery,F. J. Origins and Development of the EU ETS[J]. Environmental and Resource Economics,2009,43(03):391-412.
[17]Westner,G.,Madlener,R. The impact of modified EU ETS allocation principles on the economics of CHP-based district heating systems[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2012,20(01):47-60.
[18]Fan,J. H.,Akimov,A.,Roca,E. Dynamic hedge ratio estimations in the European Union Emissions offset credit market[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2013,42:254-262.
[19]Uddin,N.,Holtedahl,P. Emission trading schemes-avenues for unified accounting practices[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2013,52:46-52.
[20]Tanaka,M.,Chen,Y. Market power in emissions trading:Strategically manipulating permit price through fringe firms[J]. Applied energy,2012,96:203-211.
[21]Ji,J.,Zhang,Z.,Yang,L. Comparisons of initial carbon allowance allocation rules in an O2O retail supply chain with the cap-and-trade regulation[J]. International Journal of Production Economics,2017,187:68-84.
[22]Xiong,L.,Shen,B.,Qi,S.,et al. The allowance mechanism of China’s carbon trading pilots:A comparative analysis with schemes in EU and California[J]. Applied Energy,2017,185:1849-1859.
[23]Persson,T. A.,Azar,C.,Lindgren,K. Allocation of CO2emission permits—economic incentives for emission reductions in developing countries[J]. Energy Policy,2006,34(14):1889-1899.
[24]Ding,Z.,Duan,X. N.,Ge,Q,S.,et al. Control of atmospheric CO2concentrations by 2050:A calculation on the emission rights of different countries[J]. Science in China Series D:Earth Sciences,2009,52(10):1447.
[25]Pan,X.,Teng,F.,Wang,G. Sharing emission space at an equitable basis:allocation scheme based on the equal cumulative emission per capita principle[J]. Applied Energy,2014,113:1810-1818.
[26]Wei,C.,Ni,J.,Du,L. Regional allocation of carbon dioxide abatement in China[J]. China Economic Review,2012,23(03):552-565.
[27]Zhang,Y. J.,Wang,A. D.,Da,Y. B. Regional allocation of carbon emission quotas in China:Evidence from the Shapley value method[J]. Energy Policy,2014,74:454-464.
[28]Yu,S.,Wei,Y. M.,Wang,K. Provincial allocation of carbon emission reduction targets in China:an approach based on improved fuzzy cluster and Shapley value decomposition[J]. Energy Policy,2014,66:630-644.
[29]B9hringer,C.,Lange,A. On the design of optimal grandfathering schemes for emission allowances[J]. European Economic Review,2005,49(08):2041-2055.
[30]Neuhoff,K.,Martinez,K. K.,Sato,M. Allocation,incentives and distortions:the impact of EU ETS emissions allowance allocations to the electricity sector[J]. Climate Policy,2006,6(01):73-91.
[31]李军,王善勇,范进,等.个人碳交易机制对消费者能源消费影响研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2016,36(01):77-85.
[32]Li,W.,Jia,Z. The impact of emission trading scheme and the ratio of free quota:A dynamic recursive CGE model in China[J]. Applied Energy,2016,174:1-14.
[33]Jiang,C.,Xue,Y.,Huang,J.,et al. Aggregated impact of allowance allocation and power dispatching on emission reduction[J]. Journal of Modern Power Systems&Clean Energy,2017,5(24):1-11.
[34]Hu,F.,Hughes,K. J.,Ma,L.,et al. Combined economic and emission dispatch considering conventional and wind power generating units[J]. International Transactions on Electrical Energy Systems,2017,27(12):e2424.
[35]Liao,Z.,Zhu,X.,Shi,J. Case study on initial allocation of Shanghai carbon emission trading based on Shapley value[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2015,103:338-344.
[36]Zhang,L.,Li,Y.,Jia,Z. Impact of carbon allowance allocation on power industry in China’s carbon trading market:Computable general equilibrium based analysis[J]. Applied energy,2018,229:814-827
[37]Zhu,B.,Jiang,M.,He,K.,et al. Allocating CO2allowances to emitters in China:A multi-objective decision approach[J]. Energy policy,2018,121:441-451.
[38]Huang,Q.,Feng,Q.,Tian,Y.,et al. Equilibrium Strategy-Based Optimization Method for Carbon Emission Quota Allocation in Conventional Power Plants[J]. Sustainability,2018,10(09):3195.
[39]Meng,M.,Wang,L.,Chen,Q. Quota Allocation for Carbon Emissions in China’s Electric Power Industry Based Upon the Fairness Principle[J]. Energies,2018,11(09):2256.
[40]Yu,Z.,Geng,Y.,Dai,H.,et al. A general equilibrium analysis on the impacts of regional and sectoral emission allowance allocation at carbon trading market[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,192:421-432.
[41]Feng,Q.,Huang,Q.,Zheng,Q.,et al. New Carbon Emissions Allowance Allocation Method Based on Equilibrium Strategy for Carbon Emission Mitigation in the Coal-Fired Power Industry[J]. Sustainability,2018,10(08):2923.
[42]Ma,C. Q.,Ren,Y. S.,Zhang,Y. J.,et al. The allocation of carbon emission quotas to five major power generation corporations in China[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,189:1-12.
[43]Dong,F.,Long,R.,Yu,B.,et al. How can China allocate CO2reduction targets at the provincial level considering both equity and efficiency? Evidence from its Copenhagen Accord pledge[J]. Resources,Conservation and Recycling,2018,130:31-43.
[44]Qin,Q.,Liu,Y.,Li,X.,et al. A multi-criteria decision analysis model for carbon emission quota allocation in China's east coastal areas:Efficiency and equity[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,168:410-419.
[45]Jiang,H.,Shao,X.,Zhang,X.,et al. A Study of the Allocation of Carbon Emission Permits among the Provinces of China Based on Fairness and Efficiency[J]. Sustainability,2017,9(11):2122.
[46]Li,L.,Li,Y.,Ye,F.,et al. Carbon dioxide emissions quotas allocation in the Pearl River Delta region:Evidence from the maximum deviation method[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,177:207-217.
[47]Zhou,P.,Wang,M. Carbon dioxide emissions allocation:A review[J]. Ecological Economics,2016,125:47-59.
[48]Wang,Y.,Zhao,H.,Duan,F.,et al. Initial Provincial Allocation and Equity Evaluation of China’s Carbon Emission Rights—Based on the Improved TOPSIS Method[J]. Sustainability,2018,10(04):982.
[49]Miao,Z.,Geng,Y.,Sheng,J. Efficient allocation of CO2emissions in China:a zero sum gains data envelopment model[J]. Journal of cleaner production,2016,112:4144-4150.
[50]王庆山,李健.弱关联性约束下中国试点省市碳排放权分配效率研究[J].软科学,2016,30(03):81-84+107.
[51]Hahn,R. W.,Stavins,R. N. The effect of allowance allocations on cap-and-trade system performance[J]. The Journal of Law and Economics,2011,54(S4):S267-S294.
[52]Sauma,E. E. Valuation of the Economic Impact of the Initial Allocation of Tradable Emission Permits in Air Pollution Control[J]. Journal of Energy Engineering,2011,137(01):11-20.
[53]陈晓红,汪静,胡东滨.碳配额免费分配法下寻租对市场运行效率影响[J].系统工程理论与实践,2018,38(01):93-101.
[54]Park,J. W.,Kim,C. U.,Isard,W. Permit allocation in emissions trading using the Boltzmann distribution[J]. Physica A Statistical Mechanics&Its Applications,2012,391(20):4883-4890.
[55]周德群,王梅,张钦.基于熵的区域碳排放总量企业间分配研究[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2015,17(03):16-22.
[56]Li,Y.,Li,Z.,Wu,M.,et al. Regional-Level Allocation of CO2Emission Permits in China:Evidence from the Boltzmann Distribution Method[J]. Sustainability,2018,10(08):2612.
[57]Wang,T.,Wang,X.,Gong,Y.,et al. Initial allocation of carbon emission permits in power systems[J]. Journal of Modern Power Systems&Clean Energy,2017,5(02):239-247.
[58]Xu,J.,Yang,X.,Tao,Z. A tripartite equilibrium for carbon emission allowance allocation in the power-supply industry[J]. Energy Policy,2015,82:62-80.
[59]Reif,B. F. Fundamentals of Statistical and Thermal Physics[J]. Physics Today,1967,20(12):85-87.
[60]Wannier,G. H. Statistical physics[J]. Physics Today,1967,20(05):79-80.
(1)http://www.tanjiaoyi.com/article-3075-1.html
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