两控区环境管制与企业全要素生产率增长
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摘要
环境污染是民生之患、民心之痛,节能减排和环境治理是中国必须打好的攻坚战。中国在1998年开始施行的两控区政策缓解了空气污染加重的趋势,但该政策对企业全要素生产率的影响及其作用机制鲜有学者进行考证。本文基于1995年和2004年经济普查数据,利用"无条件分布特征—参数对应"分析方法,系统地考察了两控区环境管制对企业全要素生产率的影响,并定量识别了其主导作用机制。研究发现:(1)两控区内企业生产率增长幅度显著低于非两控区,表明两控区政策通过提升生产成本阻碍了生产率增长;(2)两控区内低效率企业淘汰比例更高,意味着两控区政策淘汰了效率较低的高污染企业,从而提升区内平均生产率水平;(3)与生产成本的提高相比,淘汰机制对生产率的作用相对较小,即两控区政策对生产率增长的阻碍作用占主导地位,但忽略淘汰机制会高估生产成本机制的作用;(4)两控区政策对生产率的作用在高研发密集度与高污染行业、政策执行力较强和经济发展较快的地区更显著,地区集聚经济则有助于缓解该政策的生产率负效应。经过一系列稳健性检验后,本文结论依然成立。
Environmental pollution is the suffering of people's livelihood and the pain of the people's feeling. Energy conservation and environmental protection are the tough battles that China must beat on. The Two Control Zone policy that China began to implement in 1998 eased the trend of increased air pollution, but the influence of this policy on the total factor productivity of enterprises and its mechanism of action have rarely been verified by scholars. Based on the1995 and 2004 economic census data, this paper systematically investigates the impact of environmental regulations of Two Control Zone on the total factor productivity of enterprises using the"unconditional distribution characteristics-parameter correspondence"analysis method, and quantitatively identifies its dominant mechanism. We find that:(1) the productivity growth rate of enterprises in the two control zones is significantly lower than that of the non-control areas,indicating that the two control zones policies hinder the productivity growth by increasing production costs;(2) the lowefficiency enterprises in the two control zones are eliminated more frequently, which means that the Two Control Zones policy has eliminated the low-efficiency and high-pollution enterprises, thereby increasing the average productivity level in the region;(3) compared with the increase in production costs, the elimination mechanism has a relatively small effect on productivity, namely, the policy has a dominant role in hindering productivity growth, but ignoring the elimination mechanism will overestimate the role of the production cost mechanism;(4) The effect of the policy on productivity is more pronounced in areas with high R&D intensity, high pollution industries, stronger policy enforcement, and faster economic development. The regional agglomeration economy helps to alleviate the negative productivity effects of the policy. After a series of robustness tests, the conclusions of this paper still hold.
Environmental pollution is the suffering of people's livelihood and the pain of the people's feeling. Energy conservation and environmental protection are the tough battles that China must beat on. The Two Control Zone policy that China began to implement in 1998 eased the trend of increased air pollution, but the influence of this policy on the total factor productivity of enterprises and its mechanism of action have rarely been verified by scholars. Based on the1995 and 2004 economic census data, this paper systematically investigates the impact of environmental regulations of Two Control Zone on the total factor productivity of enterprises using the"unconditional distribution characteristics-parameter correspondence"analysis method, and quantitatively identifies its dominant mechanism. We find that:(1) the productivity growth rate of enterprises in the two control zones is significantly lower than that of the non-control areas,indicating that the two control zones policies hinder the productivity growth by increasing production costs;(2) the lowefficiency enterprises in the two control zones are eliminated more frequently, which means that the Two Control Zones policy has eliminated the low-efficiency and high-pollution enterprises, thereby increasing the average productivity level in the region;(3) compared with the increase in production costs, the elimination mechanism has a relatively small effect on productivity, namely, the policy has a dominant role in hindering productivity growth, but ignoring the elimination mechanism will overestimate the role of the production cost mechanism;(4) The effect of the policy on productivity is more pronounced in areas with high R&D intensity, high pollution industries, stronger policy enforcement, and faster economic development. The regional agglomeration economy helps to alleviate the negative productivity effects of the policy. After a series of robustness tests, the conclusions of this paper still hold.
引文
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(2)李胜文、李新春、杨学儒:《中国的环境效率与环境管制--基于1986~2007年省级水平的估算》,《财经研究》,2010年第2期。
(3)李树、陈刚:《环境管制与生产率增长--以APPCL2000的修订为例》,《经济研究》,2013年第1期。
(4)李小胜、安庆贤:《环境管制成本与环境全要素生产率研究》,《世界经济》,2012年第12期。
(5)沈能:《环境效率,行业异质性与最优规制强度--中国工业行业面板数据的非线性检验》,《中国工业经济》,2012年第3期。
(6)王杰、刘斌:《环境规制与企业全要素生产率--基于中国工业企业数据的经验分析》,《中国工业经济》,2014年第3期。
(7)王俊:《环境管制、R&D投资与生产率》,《浙江社会科学》,2016年第1期。
(8)张成、陆旸、郭路、于同申:《环境规制强度和生产技术进步》,《经济研究》,2011年第2期。
(9)Ackerberg,D.A.,K.Caves and G.Frazer,2015,“Identification Properties of Recent Production Function Estimators”,Econometri?ca,Vol.83(6),pp.2411~2451.
(10)Alpay,E.,J.Kerkvliet and S.Buccola,2002,“Productivity Growth and Environmental Regulation in Mexican and US Food Manu?facturing”,American Journal of Agricultural Economics,Vol.84(4)pp.887~901.
(11)Arimura,T.,A.Hibiki and N.Johnstone,2007,“An Empirical Study of Environmental R&D:What Encourages Facilities to be Environmentally Innovative”,Environmental Policy and Corporate Behaviour,Chapter3,pp.142~173.
(12)Barbera,A.J.and V.D.McConnell,1990,“The Impact of Environmental Regulations on Industry Productivity:Direct and Indi?rect Effects”,Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,Vol.18(1),pp.50~65.
(13)Becker,R A.,2011,“Local Environmental Regulation and Plant-level Productivity”,Ecological Economics,Vol.70(12),pp.2516~2522.
(14)Berman,E.and L.T.M.Bui,2001,“Environmental Regulation and Productivity”,Review of Economics and Statistics,Vol.83(3),pp.498~510.
(15)Boyd,G.A.and J.D.McClelland,1999,“The Impact of Environmental Constraints on Productivity Improvement in Integrated Pa?per Plants”,Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,Vol.38(2),pp.121~142.
(16)Brandt,L,J.Van Biesebroeck and Y.Zhang,2012,“Creative Accounting or Creative Destruction?Firm-level Productivity Growth in Chinese Manufacturing”,Journal of Development Economics,Vol.97(2),pp.339~351.
(17)Combes,P.P.,G.Duranton,L.Gobillon and S.Roux,2010,“Estimating Agglomeration Economies with History,Geology,and Worker Effects”,In Agglomeration Economics,pp.15~66,University of Chicago Press.
(18)Combes,P.P.,G.Duranton,L.Gobillon,D.Puga and S.Roux,2012a,“The Productivity Advantages of Large Cities:Distinguish?ing Agglomeration from Firm Selection”,Econometrica,Vol.80(6),pp.2543~2594.
(19)Combes,P.P.,G.Duranton,L.Gobillon and S.Roux,2012b,“Sorting and Local Wage and Skill Distributions in France”,Region?al Science and Urban Economics,Vol.42(6),pp.913~930.
(20)Conrad,K.and D.Wastl,1995,“The Impact of Environmental Regulation on Productivity in German Industries”,Empirical Eco?nomics,Vol.20(4),pp.615~633.
(21)Dean,J.M.,Lovely,M.E.and H.Wang,2009,“Are Foreign Investors Attracted to Weak Environmental Regulations?Evaluating the Evidence from China”,Journal of Development Economics,Vol.90,pp.1~13.
(22)Dean,T.J.,R.L.Brown and V.Stango,2000,“Environmental Regulation as a Barrier to the Formation of Small Manufacturing Establishments:A Longitudinal Examination”,Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,Vol.40(1),pp.56~75.
(23)Deily,M.E.and W.B.Gray,1991,“Enforcement of Pollution Regulations in a Declining Industry”,Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,Vol.21(3),pp.260~274.
(24)Dollar,D.and S.J.Wei,2007,“Das(wasted)Kapital:Firm Ownership and Investment Efficiency in China”,NBER Working Pa?per No.13103.
(25)Ebenstein,A.,M.Fan,M.Greenstone,G.He,P.Yin,and M.Zhou,2015,“Growth,Pollution and Life Expectancy:China from1991~2012”,The American Economic Review,Vol.105(5),pp.226~231.
(26)Gollop,F.M.and M.J.Roberts,1983,“Environmental Regulations and Productivity Growth:the Case of Fossil-fueled Electric Power Generation”,The Journal of Political Economy,Vol.91(4),pp.654~674.
(27)Gray,W.B.and R.J.Shadbegian,1998,“Environmental Regulation,Investment Timing and Technology Choice”,The Journal of Industrial Economics,Vol.46(2),pp.235~256.
(28)Gray,W.B.and R.J.Shadbegian,2003,“Plant Vintage,Technology,and Environmental Regulation”,Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,Vol.46(3),pp.384~402.
(29)Gray,W.B.and R.J.Shadbegian,2001,“Environmental Regulation and Manufacturing Productivity at the Plant Level”,NBERWorking Paper No.w4321.
(30)Greenstone,M.,2002,“The Impacts of Environmental Regulations on Industrial Activity:Evidence from the 1970 and 1977 Clean Air Act amendments and the Census of Manufactures”,Journal of Political Economy,Vol.110(6),pp.1175~1219.
(31)Hamamoto,M.,2006,“Environmental Regulation and the Productivity of Japanese Manufacturing Industries”,Resource and Ener?gy Economics,Vol.28(4),pp.299~312.
(32)Hao,J.,S.Wang,B.Liu and K.He,2001,“Plotting of Acid Rain and Sulfur Dioxide Pollution Control Zones and Integrated Con?trol Planning in China”,Water Air Soil Pollution,Vol.230,pp.259~264.
(33)He,K.,H.Huo,and Q.Zhang,2002,“Urban Air Pollution in China:Current Status,Characteristics and Progress”,Annual Review of Energy&the Environment,Vol.27,pp.397~431.
(34)Hering,L.and S.Poncet,2014,“Environmental Policy and Exports:Evidence from Chinese Cities”,Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,Vol.68(2),pp.296~318.
(35)Hoerger,F.,W.H.Beamer and J.S.Hanson,1983,“The Cumulative Impact of Health,Environmental and Safety Concerns on the Chemical Industry during the Seventies”,Law and Contemporary Problems,Vol.46,pp.59~107.
(36)Huang,Y.,2003,“Selling China:Foreign Direct Investment During the Reform Era”,Cambridge University Press,New York,NY.
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(1)数据来源于2013年1月14日亚洲开发银行发布的《迈向环境可持续的未来——中华人民共和国国家环境分析》报告。报告还列举了一个关键的事实,即中国最大的500个城市中,只有不到1%达到了世界卫生组织推荐的空气质量标准;世界上污染最严重的10个城市之中,有7个在中国。
(2)“全国按行业分工业生产者出厂价格指数”的网址为http://data.stats.gov.cn/search.htm?s=全国按行业分工业生产者出厂价格指数。“国务院关于酸雨控制区和二氧化硫污染控制区有关问题的批复”文件的网址为:http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2010-11/22/content_5181.htm。中国开发区网的网址为:http://www.cadz.org.cn/。“能源生产和消费”信息的网址为:http://tongji.cnki.net/kns55/Navi/result.aspx?id=N2005120241&file=N2005120241000149&floor=1。
(3)在OP法的投资需求函数和LP法的中间品需求函数中,并没有相应引入劳动力因素。
(4)产出生产率的估算需要企业产出数量数据,本文采用的工业企业数据中并没有企业产出数量变量,无法直接估算产出生产率,也无法直接考察两控区环境管制政策对产出生产率的影响。因此本文得到的结论并不能看作是对企业生产技术的影响。作者感谢审稿人提出的这一问题。
(5)由于缺乏1996年和1997年的微观企业数据,无法得知生产率水平在这两年的变化,因此1998年生产率的变化有可能是该年突变,也可能是在1997年甚至1996年就发生了相应的趋势变化。
(6)实际上,生产率分布的移动效应衡量的是生产成本和创新机制的综合作用,如果生产率增长较快,说明创新机制的作用较强,若生产率增长较慢,则意味着生产成本机制占主导地位。
(7)限于篇幅未报告计算公式,备索。
(8)实际上,本文考察的是两控区城市和非两控区城市的生产率分布差异,其差异是否由两控区政策造成,本文并没有直接的验证,只是根据分布的差异特征推测可能的原因。将非两控区城市与两控区城市匹配后再进行比较,在一定程度上可以验证本文的推测。作者感谢审稿人提出这一问题,并提出建设性修改意见。
(9)第一阶段估计结果、匹配前后变量标准差变化、匹配前后城市变量差异结果限于篇幅未报告,备索。
(10)两控区政策发生在1998年,而由于受到经济普查数据调查年份限制,本文只能依赖于1995、2004年普查数据的比较,即政策施行后6年与实施前3年的对比,由此得到的结论为政策施行后的中期效果,而非短期效果。
(2)李胜文、李新春、杨学儒:《中国的环境效率与环境管制--基于1986~2007年省级水平的估算》,《财经研究》,2010年第2期。
(3)李树、陈刚:《环境管制与生产率增长--以APPCL2000的修订为例》,《经济研究》,2013年第1期。
(4)李小胜、安庆贤:《环境管制成本与环境全要素生产率研究》,《世界经济》,2012年第12期。
(5)沈能:《环境效率,行业异质性与最优规制强度--中国工业行业面板数据的非线性检验》,《中国工业经济》,2012年第3期。
(6)王杰、刘斌:《环境规制与企业全要素生产率--基于中国工业企业数据的经验分析》,《中国工业经济》,2014年第3期。
(7)王俊:《环境管制、R&D投资与生产率》,《浙江社会科学》,2016年第1期。
(8)张成、陆旸、郭路、于同申:《环境规制强度和生产技术进步》,《经济研究》,2011年第2期。
(9)Ackerberg,D.A.,K.Caves and G.Frazer,2015,“Identification Properties of Recent Production Function Estimators”,Econometri?ca,Vol.83(6),pp.2411~2451.
(10)Alpay,E.,J.Kerkvliet and S.Buccola,2002,“Productivity Growth and Environmental Regulation in Mexican and US Food Manu?facturing”,American Journal of Agricultural Economics,Vol.84(4)pp.887~901.
(11)Arimura,T.,A.Hibiki and N.Johnstone,2007,“An Empirical Study of Environmental R&D:What Encourages Facilities to be Environmentally Innovative”,Environmental Policy and Corporate Behaviour,Chapter3,pp.142~173.
(12)Barbera,A.J.and V.D.McConnell,1990,“The Impact of Environmental Regulations on Industry Productivity:Direct and Indi?rect Effects”,Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,Vol.18(1),pp.50~65.
(13)Becker,R A.,2011,“Local Environmental Regulation and Plant-level Productivity”,Ecological Economics,Vol.70(12),pp.2516~2522.
(14)Berman,E.and L.T.M.Bui,2001,“Environmental Regulation and Productivity”,Review of Economics and Statistics,Vol.83(3),pp.498~510.
(15)Boyd,G.A.and J.D.McClelland,1999,“The Impact of Environmental Constraints on Productivity Improvement in Integrated Pa?per Plants”,Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,Vol.38(2),pp.121~142.
(16)Brandt,L,J.Van Biesebroeck and Y.Zhang,2012,“Creative Accounting or Creative Destruction?Firm-level Productivity Growth in Chinese Manufacturing”,Journal of Development Economics,Vol.97(2),pp.339~351.
(17)Combes,P.P.,G.Duranton,L.Gobillon and S.Roux,2010,“Estimating Agglomeration Economies with History,Geology,and Worker Effects”,In Agglomeration Economics,pp.15~66,University of Chicago Press.
(18)Combes,P.P.,G.Duranton,L.Gobillon,D.Puga and S.Roux,2012a,“The Productivity Advantages of Large Cities:Distinguish?ing Agglomeration from Firm Selection”,Econometrica,Vol.80(6),pp.2543~2594.
(19)Combes,P.P.,G.Duranton,L.Gobillon and S.Roux,2012b,“Sorting and Local Wage and Skill Distributions in France”,Region?al Science and Urban Economics,Vol.42(6),pp.913~930.
(20)Conrad,K.and D.Wastl,1995,“The Impact of Environmental Regulation on Productivity in German Industries”,Empirical Eco?nomics,Vol.20(4),pp.615~633.
(21)Dean,J.M.,Lovely,M.E.and H.Wang,2009,“Are Foreign Investors Attracted to Weak Environmental Regulations?Evaluating the Evidence from China”,Journal of Development Economics,Vol.90,pp.1~13.
(22)Dean,T.J.,R.L.Brown and V.Stango,2000,“Environmental Regulation as a Barrier to the Formation of Small Manufacturing Establishments:A Longitudinal Examination”,Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,Vol.40(1),pp.56~75.
(23)Deily,M.E.and W.B.Gray,1991,“Enforcement of Pollution Regulations in a Declining Industry”,Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,Vol.21(3),pp.260~274.
(24)Dollar,D.and S.J.Wei,2007,“Das(wasted)Kapital:Firm Ownership and Investment Efficiency in China”,NBER Working Pa?per No.13103.
(25)Ebenstein,A.,M.Fan,M.Greenstone,G.He,P.Yin,and M.Zhou,2015,“Growth,Pollution and Life Expectancy:China from1991~2012”,The American Economic Review,Vol.105(5),pp.226~231.
(26)Gollop,F.M.and M.J.Roberts,1983,“Environmental Regulations and Productivity Growth:the Case of Fossil-fueled Electric Power Generation”,The Journal of Political Economy,Vol.91(4),pp.654~674.
(27)Gray,W.B.and R.J.Shadbegian,1998,“Environmental Regulation,Investment Timing and Technology Choice”,The Journal of Industrial Economics,Vol.46(2),pp.235~256.
(28)Gray,W.B.and R.J.Shadbegian,2003,“Plant Vintage,Technology,and Environmental Regulation”,Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,Vol.46(3),pp.384~402.
(29)Gray,W.B.and R.J.Shadbegian,2001,“Environmental Regulation and Manufacturing Productivity at the Plant Level”,NBERWorking Paper No.w4321.
(30)Greenstone,M.,2002,“The Impacts of Environmental Regulations on Industrial Activity:Evidence from the 1970 and 1977 Clean Air Act amendments and the Census of Manufactures”,Journal of Political Economy,Vol.110(6),pp.1175~1219.
(31)Hamamoto,M.,2006,“Environmental Regulation and the Productivity of Japanese Manufacturing Industries”,Resource and Ener?gy Economics,Vol.28(4),pp.299~312.
(32)Hao,J.,S.Wang,B.Liu and K.He,2001,“Plotting of Acid Rain and Sulfur Dioxide Pollution Control Zones and Integrated Con?trol Planning in China”,Water Air Soil Pollution,Vol.230,pp.259~264.
(33)He,K.,H.Huo,and Q.Zhang,2002,“Urban Air Pollution in China:Current Status,Characteristics and Progress”,Annual Review of Energy&the Environment,Vol.27,pp.397~431.
(34)Hering,L.and S.Poncet,2014,“Environmental Policy and Exports:Evidence from Chinese Cities”,Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,Vol.68(2),pp.296~318.
(35)Hoerger,F.,W.H.Beamer and J.S.Hanson,1983,“The Cumulative Impact of Health,Environmental and Safety Concerns on the Chemical Industry during the Seventies”,Law and Contemporary Problems,Vol.46,pp.59~107.
(36)Huang,Y.,2003,“Selling China:Foreign Direct Investment During the Reform Era”,Cambridge University Press,New York,NY.
(37)International Energy Agency(IEA),2007,“World Energy Outlook 2007-China and India Insight”,OECD/IEA.
(38)Jaffe,A.B.,S.R.Peterson,P.R.Portney and R.N.Stavins,1995,“Environmental Regulation and the Competitiveness of USManufacturing:What does the Evidence Tell Us?”,Journal of Economic Literature,Vol.33(1),pp.132~163.
(39)Jefferson,G.H.,S.Tanaka and W.Yin,2013,“Environmental Regulation and Industrial Performance:Evidence from Unexpected Externalities in China”,Available at SSRN 2216220.
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(1)数据来源于2013年1月14日亚洲开发银行发布的《迈向环境可持续的未来——中华人民共和国国家环境分析》报告。报告还列举了一个关键的事实,即中国最大的500个城市中,只有不到1%达到了世界卫生组织推荐的空气质量标准;世界上污染最严重的10个城市之中,有7个在中国。
(2)“全国按行业分工业生产者出厂价格指数”的网址为http://data.stats.gov.cn/search.htm?s=全国按行业分工业生产者出厂价格指数。“国务院关于酸雨控制区和二氧化硫污染控制区有关问题的批复”文件的网址为:http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2010-11/22/content_5181.htm。中国开发区网的网址为:http://www.cadz.org.cn/。“能源生产和消费”信息的网址为:http://tongji.cnki.net/kns55/Navi/result.aspx?id=N2005120241&file=N2005120241000149&floor=1。
(3)在OP法的投资需求函数和LP法的中间品需求函数中,并没有相应引入劳动力因素。
(4)产出生产率的估算需要企业产出数量数据,本文采用的工业企业数据中并没有企业产出数量变量,无法直接估算产出生产率,也无法直接考察两控区环境管制政策对产出生产率的影响。因此本文得到的结论并不能看作是对企业生产技术的影响。作者感谢审稿人提出的这一问题。
(5)由于缺乏1996年和1997年的微观企业数据,无法得知生产率水平在这两年的变化,因此1998年生产率的变化有可能是该年突变,也可能是在1997年甚至1996年就发生了相应的趋势变化。
(6)实际上,生产率分布的移动效应衡量的是生产成本和创新机制的综合作用,如果生产率增长较快,说明创新机制的作用较强,若生产率增长较慢,则意味着生产成本机制占主导地位。
(7)限于篇幅未报告计算公式,备索。
(8)实际上,本文考察的是两控区城市和非两控区城市的生产率分布差异,其差异是否由两控区政策造成,本文并没有直接的验证,只是根据分布的差异特征推测可能的原因。将非两控区城市与两控区城市匹配后再进行比较,在一定程度上可以验证本文的推测。作者感谢审稿人提出这一问题,并提出建设性修改意见。
(9)第一阶段估计结果、匹配前后变量标准差变化、匹配前后城市变量差异结果限于篇幅未报告,备索。
(10)两控区政策发生在1998年,而由于受到经济普查数据调查年份限制,本文只能依赖于1995、2004年普查数据的比较,即政策施行后6年与实施前3年的对比,由此得到的结论为政策施行后的中期效果,而非短期效果。