基于系统动力学的云南生态文明建设有效路径研究
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摘要
云南要努力成为生态文明建设的排头兵,必须探寻一条生态文明建设的有效路径。本文构建了包含社会、经济、资源和环境四个子系统的生态文明建设指标体系。通过分析四个子系统之间的相互作用和相互影响关系,运用系统动力学原理和方法,构建生态文明建设系统模型,并对模型设置的合理性和科学性进行检验。根据云南实际,选择8个能够全面并重点反映生态文明建设状况的指标作为控制变量,8个显示生态文明建设效果的变量,设计维持现状发展路径、社会发展优先路径、经济发展优先路径、节约资源和保护环境优先路径、协调发展路径等生态文明建设的5条路径,通过模拟仿真,得到2025年和2035年生态文明建设效果。并从生产总值、总人口、就业人数、资源效率和环境绩效等五方面进一步分析云南生态文明建设路径的有效性,得到:(1)经济发展优先路径和维持现状发展路径不利于生态文明建设;(2)社会发展优先路径促进了云南就业人数增加,节约资源和保护环境优先路径提升了资源效率,但都不能全面推动生态文明建设;(3)协调发展路径对云南生态文明建设的经济、社会和环境子系统具有较强的促进作用,是优先选择发展路径。针对选择路径提出三方面建议:(1)社会、经济、资源与环境必须协调发展;(2)提高资源利用效率和加大可再生能源的应用;(3)充分发挥公众的环境监督作用。
Yunnan must explore an effective path during constructing ecological civilization in order to promote ecological civilization.This study constructed an ecological civilization system based on society,economy,resources,and the environment. For each of the four subsystems,the structural indicators of the ecological civilization construction system were selected. By analyzing the interactions among the four subsystems and using system dynamics principles and methods,a system model of ecological civilization construction was constructed based on the actual situation in Yunnan,and the rationality and scientific validity of the model were tested. Eight indicators that could fully reflect the status of ecological civilization route as a control variable were selected,as well as eight variables that showed the effectiveness of ecological civilization route. Five route models were designed to maintain the current development model,social development priority model,economic development priority model,resource conservation and environmental protection priority mode,coordinated development model and other ecological civilization routes. The effect of ecological civilization construction in 2025 and 2035 was obtained by simulation. Then this paper analyzed the effectiveness of Yunnan 's ecological civilization construction route from five aspects including total output value,total population,employment,resource efficiency,and environmental performance,and the results showed that:(1)Economic development priority model and maintenance of current development model were not conducive to the route of ecological civilization.(2)The priority route of social development promoted the increase in the number of people employed in Yunnan,at the mean time saved resources,and prioritized the protection of the environment to improve resource efficiency. However,it did not fully promote the ecological civilization route.(3) The coordinated development model had a strong influence on the economic,social,and environmental subsystems of the ecological civilization route in Yunnan. The role of promotion was to give priority to the development path. Finally, three suggestions were proposed:(1) Social, economic, resource, and environmental development must be coordinated.(2)The efficiency of resource utilization and the use of sustainable energy should be increased.(3)The role of public environmental supervision should be fully utilized.
Yunnan must explore an effective path during constructing ecological civilization in order to promote ecological civilization.This study constructed an ecological civilization system based on society,economy,resources,and the environment. For each of the four subsystems,the structural indicators of the ecological civilization construction system were selected. By analyzing the interactions among the four subsystems and using system dynamics principles and methods,a system model of ecological civilization construction was constructed based on the actual situation in Yunnan,and the rationality and scientific validity of the model were tested. Eight indicators that could fully reflect the status of ecological civilization route as a control variable were selected,as well as eight variables that showed the effectiveness of ecological civilization route. Five route models were designed to maintain the current development model,social development priority model,economic development priority model,resource conservation and environmental protection priority mode,coordinated development model and other ecological civilization routes. The effect of ecological civilization construction in 2025 and 2035 was obtained by simulation. Then this paper analyzed the effectiveness of Yunnan 's ecological civilization construction route from five aspects including total output value,total population,employment,resource efficiency,and environmental performance,and the results showed that:(1)Economic development priority model and maintenance of current development model were not conducive to the route of ecological civilization.(2)The priority route of social development promoted the increase in the number of people employed in Yunnan,at the mean time saved resources,and prioritized the protection of the environment to improve resource efficiency. However,it did not fully promote the ecological civilization route.(3) The coordinated development model had a strong influence on the economic,social,and environmental subsystems of the ecological civilization route in Yunnan. The role of promotion was to give priority to the development path. Finally, three suggestions were proposed:(1) Social, economic, resource, and environmental development must be coordinated.(2)The efficiency of resource utilization and the use of sustainable energy should be increased.(3)The role of public environmental supervision should be fully utilized.
引文
[1]毕国华,杨庆媛,刘苏.中国省域生态文明建设与城市化的耦合协调发展[J].经济地理,2017,37(1):50-58.
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[9]宓泽锋,曾刚,尚勇敏,等.长江经济带市域生态文明建设现状及发展潜力初探[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(9):1438-1447.
[10]李巍,郗永勤.效率视角下的省域生态文明建设评价研究[J].生态学报,2016,36(22):7354-7363.
[11]胡彪,王锋,李健毅,等.基于非期望产出SBM的城市生态文明建设效率评价实证研究:以天津市为例[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015(4):13-18.
[12]徐鹏,林永红,栾胜基.低碳生态城市建设效应评估方法构建及在深圳市的应用[J].环境科学学报,2016(4):1457-1467.
[13]LAI X Y,LIU G,WANG H M. Evaluation and analysis of DEA efficiency in construction of ecological civilization of Jiangsu Province[J]. Disaster advances,2013(6):102-108.
[14]包存宽,汪涛,王娟.生态文明建设绩效评价方法的构建及应用——基于“水平、进步、差距”的视角[J].复旦学报(社会科学版),2017(6):175-184.
[15]刘强,陈伟,苏屹.省域生态文明建设能力评价指标权重的确定[J].统计与决策,2016(21):59-61.
[16]李文庆.宁夏生态文明建设路径研究[J].宁夏社会科学,2017(a1):139-143.
[17]丁桂馨.中国生态文明建设的路径选择[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报(社会科学版),2017,19(3):112-115.
[18]张云飞.生态理性:生态文明建设的路径选择[J].中国特色社会主义研究,2015(1):88-92.
[19]王从彦,潘法强,唐明觉,等.浅析镇江市生态文明建设路径选择[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016(S1):202-208.
[20]SANG C H,ZHAO C,YU C J. Data mining application and government governance from the perspective of ecological civilization construction[J]. RISTI-Revista iberica de sistemase tecnologias de informacao,2016:173-186.
[21]穆艳杰,李旭阁.经济新常态背景下的生态文明建设路径探析[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2016,56(5):178-183.
[22]谷树忠,胡咏君,周洪.生态文明建设的科学内涵与基本路径[J].资源科学,2013,35(1):2-13.
[23]王忠祥.生态文明建设路径探析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(S2):22-24.
[24]杨阳.与可持续发展模型兼容的人口模块构建:基于系统动力学方法[J].系统工程,2015,33(6):122-130.
[25]姜钰,贺雪涛.基于系统动力学的林下经济可持续发展战略仿真分析[J].中国软科学,2014(1):105-114.
[26]李春发,曹莹莹,杨建超,等.基于能值及系统动力学的中新天津生态城可持续发展模式情景分析[J].应用生态学报,2015(8):2455-2465.
[27]李桂君,李玉龙,贾晓菁,等.北京市水-能源-粮食可持续发展系统动力学模型构建与仿真[J].管理评论,2016,28(10):11-26.
[28]卢志平,汪艳梅,王亮亮.柳州市可持续发展系统动力学仿真[J].城市问题,2016(6):39-46.
[29]肖仁俊,董志,李秀婷,等.新疆能源可持续发展的系统动力学模型与分析[J].管理评论,2014,26(8):31-41.
[30]CHEN H Y,YU J,WAKELAND W. Generating technology development paths to the desired future through system dynamics modeling and simulation[J]. Futures,2016,81:81-97.
[31]张振东,张延飞,唐鑫.江西省生态文明建设的系统仿真与优化[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(9):1403-1411.
[32]柴琪宸,郭亚军,宫诚举,等.中国省域生态文明建设协调发展程度的综合评价[J].中国管理科学,2017,25(7):184-190.
[2]ZHANG X H,WANG Y Q,QI Y,et al. Evaluating the trends of China’s ecological civilization construction using a novel indicator system[J]. Journal of cleaner production,2016,133:910-923.
[3]王雪松,任胜钢,袁宝龙.我国生态文明建设分类考核的指标体系和流程设计[J].中南大学学报(社会科学版),2016(1):89-97.
[4]张欢,成金华,冯银,等.特大型城市生态文明建设评价指标体系及应用——以武汉市为例[J].生态学报,2015,35(2):547-556.
[5]成金华,李悦,陈军.中国生态文明发展水平的空间差异与趋同性[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(5):1-9.
[6]赵先贵,马彩虹,赵晶,等.足迹家族的改进及其在新疆生态文明建设评价中的应用[J].地理研究,2016,35(12):2384-2394.
[7]刘培德,滕飞.基于混合指标值TODIM方法的东营市生态系统健康评价[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(8):167-176.
[8]LIU M C,LIU X C,YANG Z S. An integrated indicator on regional ecological civilization construction in China[J]. International journal of sustainable development and world ecology,2016,23(1):53-60.
[9]宓泽锋,曾刚,尚勇敏,等.长江经济带市域生态文明建设现状及发展潜力初探[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(9):1438-1447.
[10]李巍,郗永勤.效率视角下的省域生态文明建设评价研究[J].生态学报,2016,36(22):7354-7363.
[11]胡彪,王锋,李健毅,等.基于非期望产出SBM的城市生态文明建设效率评价实证研究:以天津市为例[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015(4):13-18.
[12]徐鹏,林永红,栾胜基.低碳生态城市建设效应评估方法构建及在深圳市的应用[J].环境科学学报,2016(4):1457-1467.
[13]LAI X Y,LIU G,WANG H M. Evaluation and analysis of DEA efficiency in construction of ecological civilization of Jiangsu Province[J]. Disaster advances,2013(6):102-108.
[14]包存宽,汪涛,王娟.生态文明建设绩效评价方法的构建及应用——基于“水平、进步、差距”的视角[J].复旦学报(社会科学版),2017(6):175-184.
[15]刘强,陈伟,苏屹.省域生态文明建设能力评价指标权重的确定[J].统计与决策,2016(21):59-61.
[16]李文庆.宁夏生态文明建设路径研究[J].宁夏社会科学,2017(a1):139-143.
[17]丁桂馨.中国生态文明建设的路径选择[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报(社会科学版),2017,19(3):112-115.
[18]张云飞.生态理性:生态文明建设的路径选择[J].中国特色社会主义研究,2015(1):88-92.
[19]王从彦,潘法强,唐明觉,等.浅析镇江市生态文明建设路径选择[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016(S1):202-208.
[20]SANG C H,ZHAO C,YU C J. Data mining application and government governance from the perspective of ecological civilization construction[J]. RISTI-Revista iberica de sistemase tecnologias de informacao,2016:173-186.
[21]穆艳杰,李旭阁.经济新常态背景下的生态文明建设路径探析[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2016,56(5):178-183.
[22]谷树忠,胡咏君,周洪.生态文明建设的科学内涵与基本路径[J].资源科学,2013,35(1):2-13.
[23]王忠祥.生态文明建设路径探析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(S2):22-24.
[24]杨阳.与可持续发展模型兼容的人口模块构建:基于系统动力学方法[J].系统工程,2015,33(6):122-130.
[25]姜钰,贺雪涛.基于系统动力学的林下经济可持续发展战略仿真分析[J].中国软科学,2014(1):105-114.
[26]李春发,曹莹莹,杨建超,等.基于能值及系统动力学的中新天津生态城可持续发展模式情景分析[J].应用生态学报,2015(8):2455-2465.
[27]李桂君,李玉龙,贾晓菁,等.北京市水-能源-粮食可持续发展系统动力学模型构建与仿真[J].管理评论,2016,28(10):11-26.
[28]卢志平,汪艳梅,王亮亮.柳州市可持续发展系统动力学仿真[J].城市问题,2016(6):39-46.
[29]肖仁俊,董志,李秀婷,等.新疆能源可持续发展的系统动力学模型与分析[J].管理评论,2014,26(8):31-41.
[30]CHEN H Y,YU J,WAKELAND W. Generating technology development paths to the desired future through system dynamics modeling and simulation[J]. Futures,2016,81:81-97.
[31]张振东,张延飞,唐鑫.江西省生态文明建设的系统仿真与优化[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(9):1403-1411.
[32]柴琪宸,郭亚军,宫诚举,等.中国省域生态文明建设协调发展程度的综合评价[J].中国管理科学,2017,25(7):184-190.
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