1979-2014年中国地面风速的长期变化趋势
|
摘要
基于中国国家级地面气象站均一化风速月值数据集,采用线性回归等方法分析了1979-2014年中国2268个台站地面风速演变的时空特征。结果表明:中国地面风速总体呈显著下降趋势,年平均风速变化速率为-0.142 m/s/10 a;四个季节中春季平均风速下降趋势(-0.18m/s/10 a)明显大于其他三个季节,其次依次为冬季(-0.135 m/s/10 a)、夏季(-0.13 m/s/10 a)及秋季(-0.129 m/s/10 a);研究选取的台站中约82%的台站风速呈现下降趋势;划分的七个区域中,高原区和东北区风速下降趋势最明显,华北区下降趋势最小,但都通过了0.05显著性检验;中国地面风速在1980s下降趋势最显著(-0.235 m/s/10 a),1990s下降趋势减缓(-0.112 m/s/10 a),2000-2014年下降趋势最小,为-0.099 m/s/10 a;研究期间地面风速与地面气温呈显著负相关,表明近期中国气温变暖可能导致风速减弱。
Based on the monthly homogenized data, this paper explored the spatial and temporal changes of surface wind speed of 2268 stations in China during 1979-2014. In this paper, the linear regression and the five-point moving average are used to examine the trend of the climate change. The Pearson correlation coefficient is used to analyze the correlation. The Cressman interpolation method commonly used in meteorological data is adopted to interpolate the site data to grid data. In order to study the changes of surface wind speed in different parts of the country, China is divided into seven regions. The results are shown as follows. The mean surface wind speed in China generally showed a significant downward trend with an annual rate of-0.142 m/s/10 a, and it decreased with the largest trend magnitude in spring(-0.18 m/s/10 a), followed by winter(-0.135 m/s/10 a), summer(-0.13 m/s/10 a) and autumn(-0.129 m/s/10 a). Furthermore, about 82%(1868) of the selected stations showed a downward trend of surface wind speed. The significantly declining trend was found in the Tibetan Plateau and northeastern sub-regions classified in this paper, with the declining trend in North China being the smallest, and all passed the 0.05 significance test. In terms of interdecadal changes, the downward trend is slowing down. The declining trend of the whole country was most significant in the 1980 s(-0.235 m/s/10 a), and was slowed down to-0.112 m/s/10 a in the1990 s, then turned to the smallest in 2000-2014 with a rate of-0.099 m/s/10 a. During the study period, there was a significant negative correlation between surface wind speed and surface air temperature, indicating that the recent warming of China may cause the wind speed to weaken.
Based on the monthly homogenized data, this paper explored the spatial and temporal changes of surface wind speed of 2268 stations in China during 1979-2014. In this paper, the linear regression and the five-point moving average are used to examine the trend of the climate change. The Pearson correlation coefficient is used to analyze the correlation. The Cressman interpolation method commonly used in meteorological data is adopted to interpolate the site data to grid data. In order to study the changes of surface wind speed in different parts of the country, China is divided into seven regions. The results are shown as follows. The mean surface wind speed in China generally showed a significant downward trend with an annual rate of-0.142 m/s/10 a, and it decreased with the largest trend magnitude in spring(-0.18 m/s/10 a), followed by winter(-0.135 m/s/10 a), summer(-0.13 m/s/10 a) and autumn(-0.129 m/s/10 a). Furthermore, about 82%(1868) of the selected stations showed a downward trend of surface wind speed. The significantly declining trend was found in the Tibetan Plateau and northeastern sub-regions classified in this paper, with the declining trend in North China being the smallest, and all passed the 0.05 significance test. In terms of interdecadal changes, the downward trend is slowing down. The declining trend of the whole country was most significant in the 1980 s(-0.235 m/s/10 a), and was slowed down to-0.112 m/s/10 a in the1990 s, then turned to the smallest in 2000-2014 with a rate of-0.099 m/s/10 a. During the study period, there was a significant negative correlation between surface wind speed and surface air temperature, indicating that the recent warming of China may cause the wind speed to weaken.
引文
[1]廖顺宝,刘凯,李泽辉.中国风能资源空间分布的估算.地球信息科学学报, 2008, 10(5):551-556.[LIAO S B, LIU K,LI Z H. Estimation of grid based spatial distribution of wind energy resource in China. Journal of Geo-Informaton Science, 2008, 10(5):551-556.]
[2]郑崇伟,潘静.全球海域风能资源评估及等级区划.自然资源学报, 2012, 27(3):364-371.[ZHENG C W, PAN J. Wind energy resources assessment in global ocean. Journal of Natural Resources, 2012, 27(3):364-371.]
[3]秦大河, THOMAS S. IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论.气候变化研究进展, 2014, 10(1):1-6.[QIN D H, THOMAS S. Highlights of IPCC Working Group I Fifth Assessment Report. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2014, 10(1):1-6.]
[4] IPCC. Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation(SRREN). Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA:Cambridge University Press, 2011.
[5]郑崇伟. 21世纪海上丝绸之路:风能的长期变化趋势.哈尔滨工程大学学报, 2018, 39(3):399-405.[ZHENG C W.Wind energy trend in the 21stCentury Maritime Silk Road. Journal of Harbin Engineering University, 2018, 39(3):399-405.]
[6]郑崇伟. 21世纪海上丝绸之路:风能资源详查.哈尔滨工程大学学报, 2018, 39(1):16-22.[ZHENG C W. Wind energy evaluation of the 21stCentury Maritime Silk Road. Journal of Harbin Engineering University, 2018, 39(1):16-22.]
[7]郑崇伟,高悦,陈璇.巴基斯坦瓜达尔港风能资源的历史变化趋势及预测.北京大学学报:自然科学版, 2017, 53(4):617-626.[ZHENG C W, GAO Y, CHEN X. Climatic long term trend and prediction of the wind energy resource in the Gwadar Port. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 2017, 53(4):617-626.]
[8]毛慧琴,宋丽莉,黄浩辉,等.广东省风能资源区划研究.自然资源学报, 2005, 20(5):679-683.[MAO H Q, SONG L L, HUANG H H, et al. Study on the wind energy resource division in Guangdong province. Journal of Natural Resources, 2005, 20(5):679-683.]
[9] MCVICAR T R, RODERICK M L, DONOHUE R J, et al. Global review and synthesis of trends in observed terrestrial near-surface wind speeds:Implications for evaporation. Journal of Hydrology, 2012, 416(3):182-205.
[10] VAUTARD R, JULIEN C, PASCAL Y, et al. Northern hemisphere atmospheric stilling partly attributed to an increase in surface roughness. Nature Geoscience, 2010, 3(11):756-761.
[11] PRYOR S C, BARTHELMIE R J, TAKLE G S. Wind speed trends over the contiguous USA. Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres, 2009, 114, D14105, Doi:10.1029/2008JD011416.
[12] ADDICKS K. An analysis of temperatures and wind speeds above Dome C, Antarctica. Astronomy&Astrophysics,2005, 415(2):739-746.
[13] TURNER J, STEVE R C, GARETH J M, et al. Antarctic climate change during the last 50 years. International Journal of Climatology, 2005, 25(3):279-294.
[14] LYNCH A H, CURRY J A, BRUNNER R D, et al. Toward an integrated assessment of the impacts of extreme wind events on Barrow, Alaska. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2004, 85(2):209-222.
[15]王遵娅,丁一汇,何金海,等.近50年来中国气候变化特征的再分析.气象学报, 2004, 62(2):228-236.[WANG Z Y,DING Y H, HE J H, et al. An updating analysis of the climate change in China in recent 50 years. Acta Meteor Sinica,2004, 62(2):228-236.]
[16]任国玉,郭军,徐铭志,等.近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征.气象学报, 2005, 63(6):942-956.[REN G Y, GUO J,XU M Z, et al. Climate changes of China's mainland over the past half century. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2005, 63(6):942-956.]
[17] XU M, CHANG C P, FU C B, et al. Steady decline of east Asian monsoon winds, 1969-2000:Evidence from direct ground measurements of wind speed. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2006, 111, D2411, Doi:10.1029/2006JD007337.
[18] FU G B, YU J J, ZHANG Y C, et al. Temporal variation of wind speed in China for 1961-2007. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2011, 104(3-4):313-324.
[19]中国气象局气候变化中心.中国气候变化监测公报.北京:气象出版社, 2014.[National Climate Center. China Climate Change Monitoring Bulletin. Beijing:China Meteorological Press, 2014.]
[20] JIANG Y, LUO Y, ZHAO Z C, et al. Changes in wind speed over China during 1956-2004. Theoretical&Applied Climatology, 2010, 99(3-4):421-430.
[21] GUO H, XU M, HU Q. Changes in near-surface wind speed in China:1969-2005. International Journal of Climatology,2011, 31(3):349-358.
[22] CHEN L, LI D, PRYOR S C. Wind speed trends over China:Quantifying the magnitude and assessing causality. International Journal of Climatology, 2013, 33(11):2579-2590.
[23] YOU Q L, KANG S C, FLUGEL W A, et al. Decreasing wind speed and weakening latitudinal surface pressure gradients in the Tibetan Plateau. Climate Research, 2010, 42(1):57-64.
[24]刘苏峡,邱建秀,莫兴国.华北平原1951年至2006年风速变化特征分析.资源科学, 2009, 31(9):1486-1492.[LIU S X, QIU J X, MO X G. Wind velocity variation from 1951 to 2006 in the North China Plain. Resources Science, 2009, 31(9):1486-1492.]
[25]金巍,任国玉,曲岩,等. 1971-2010年东北三省平均地面风速变化.干旱区究, 2012, 29(4):648-653.[JIN W, REN G Y, QU Y, et al. Change in surface mean wind speed of Northeast China during the period of 1971-2010. Arid Zone Research, 2012, 29(4):648-653.]
[26]张志斌,杨莹,张小平,等.我国西南地区风速变化及其影响因素.生态学报, 2014, 34(2):471-481.[ZHANG Z B,YANG Y, ZHANG X P, et al. Wind speed changes and its influencing factors in Southwestern China. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2014, 34(2):471-481.]
[27]唐宝琪,延军平,刘永林,等.全球气候变暖下华东4省1市风速变化特征.浙江大学学报:理学版, 2015, 42(5):575-583.[TANG B Q, YAN J P, LIU Y L, et al. The various characteristics about wind speed of Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui,Zhejiang provinces and Shanghai in the East China under the global warming. Journal of Zhejiang University:Science Edition, 2015, 42(5):575-583.]
[28]黄小燕,张明军,王圣杰,等.西北地区近50年日照时数和风速变化特征.自然资源学报, 2011, 26(5):825-835.[HUANG X Y, ZHANG M J, WANG S J, et al. Characteristics of variation in sunshine duration and wind speed in the last 50 years in Northwest China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2011, 26(5):825-835.]
[29]赵宗慈,罗勇,江滢,等.近50年中国风速减小的可能原因.气象科技展, 2016, 6(3):106-109.[ZHAO Z C, LUO Y,JIANG Y, et al. Possible reasons of wind speed decline in China for the last 50 Years. Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology, 2016, 6(3):106-109.]
[30]陈练.气候变暖背景下中国风速(能)变化及其影响因子研究.南京:南京信息工程大学, 2013.[CHEN L. Changes and their impact factors of wind speed(energy)over China under the background of climate warming. Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology, 2013.]
[31]李艳,王元,储惠芸,等.中国陆域近地层风能资源的气候变异和下垫面人为改变的影响.科学通报, 2008, 53(21):2646-2653.[LI Y, WANG Y, CHU H Y, et al. Climate variability of surface wind energy resources and influence of human-induced changes in underlying surfaces in land area of China. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2008, 53(21):2646-2653.]
[32]刘学锋,梁秀慧,任国玉,等.台站观测环境改变对我国近地面风速观测资料序列的影响.高原气象, 2012, 31(6):1645-1652.[LIU X F, LIANG X H, REN G Y, et al. Impact of the observational environment change on surface wind speed in China. Plateau Meteorology, 2012, 31(6):1645-1652.]
[33]刘小宁.我国40年年平均风速的均一性检验.应用气象学报, 2000, 11(1):27-34.[LIU X N. The homogeneity test on mean annual wind speed over China. Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology, 2000, 11(1):27-34.]
[34]曹丽娟,鞠晓慧,刘小宁,等. PMFT方法对我国年平均风速的均一性检验.气象, 2010, 36(10):52-56.[CAO L J, JU X H, LIU X N, et al. Penalized maximal F test for the homogeneity study of the annual mean wind speed over China.Journal of Meteorological Research, 2010, 36(10):52-56.]
[35] DUDANI S A. The distance-weighted k-nearest-neighbor rule. IEEE Transactions on Systems Man&Cybernetics,1976, 6(4):325-327.
[36]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术:第2版.北京:气象出版社, 2007.[WEI F Y. Modern Climate Statistic Diagnosis and Prediction Technology. 2ndedition. Beijing:China Meteorological Press, 2007.]
[37] CRESSMAN G P. An operational objective analysis system. Monthly Weather Review, 1959, 87(10):367-374.
[38]江滢,罗勇,赵宗慈,等.近50年中国风速变化及原因分析//中国气象学会年会, 2007.[JIANG Y, LUO Y, ZHAO Z C, et al. Analysis of wind speed changes and reasons in China in recent 50 years. In:The Annual Meeting of Chinese Meteorological Society, 2007.]
[39]张莉,任国玉.中国北方沙尘暴频数演化及其气候成因分析.气象学报, 2003, 61(6):744-750.[ZHANG L, REN G Y.Change in dust storm frequency and the climatic controls in Northern China. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2003, 61(6):744-750.]
[40]王新敏,邹旭恺,翟盘茂.北半球温带气旋的变化.气候变化研究进展, 2007, 3(3):154-157.[WANG X M, ZOU X K,ZHAI P M. Researches on extratropical cyclone variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2007, 3(3):154-157.]
[41]赵宗慈,罗勇,江滢.全球大风在减少吗?.气候变化研究展, 2011, 7(2):149-151.[ZHAO Z C, LUO Y, JIANG Y. Is global strong wind declining?. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2011, 7(2):149-151.]
[42]王艳玲,郭品文.春季北方气旋活动的气候特征及与气温和降水的关系.大气科学学报, 2005, 28(3):391-397.[WANG Y L, GUO P W. Climatic characteristics of northern cyclone activity in spring and their relationship to rainfall and temperature in China. Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, 2005, 28(3):391-397.]
[43]朱乾根,林锦瑞,寿绍文,等.天气学原理和方法.北京:气象出版社, 2000:131-145.[ZHU Q G, LIN J R, SHOU S W, et al. Principles and Technique of Synoptic Meteorology. Beijing:China Meteorological Press, 2000:131-145.]
[44]段春锋.中国地面风速变化及其影响因子的研究.南京:南京信息工程大学, 2009.[DUAN C F. Study on the variation of surface wind speed and its affecting factors in China. Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology, 2009.]
[45]田莉.中国北方地区地面风速变化特征及其影响因子研究.兰州:兰州大学, 2012.[TIAN L. Studies on characteristics and impact factors of the surface wind speed changes in the Northern China. Lanzhou:Lanzhou University, 2012.]
[2]郑崇伟,潘静.全球海域风能资源评估及等级区划.自然资源学报, 2012, 27(3):364-371.[ZHENG C W, PAN J. Wind energy resources assessment in global ocean. Journal of Natural Resources, 2012, 27(3):364-371.]
[3]秦大河, THOMAS S. IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论.气候变化研究进展, 2014, 10(1):1-6.[QIN D H, THOMAS S. Highlights of IPCC Working Group I Fifth Assessment Report. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2014, 10(1):1-6.]
[4] IPCC. Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation(SRREN). Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA:Cambridge University Press, 2011.
[5]郑崇伟. 21世纪海上丝绸之路:风能的长期变化趋势.哈尔滨工程大学学报, 2018, 39(3):399-405.[ZHENG C W.Wind energy trend in the 21stCentury Maritime Silk Road. Journal of Harbin Engineering University, 2018, 39(3):399-405.]
[6]郑崇伟. 21世纪海上丝绸之路:风能资源详查.哈尔滨工程大学学报, 2018, 39(1):16-22.[ZHENG C W. Wind energy evaluation of the 21stCentury Maritime Silk Road. Journal of Harbin Engineering University, 2018, 39(1):16-22.]
[7]郑崇伟,高悦,陈璇.巴基斯坦瓜达尔港风能资源的历史变化趋势及预测.北京大学学报:自然科学版, 2017, 53(4):617-626.[ZHENG C W, GAO Y, CHEN X. Climatic long term trend and prediction of the wind energy resource in the Gwadar Port. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 2017, 53(4):617-626.]
[8]毛慧琴,宋丽莉,黄浩辉,等.广东省风能资源区划研究.自然资源学报, 2005, 20(5):679-683.[MAO H Q, SONG L L, HUANG H H, et al. Study on the wind energy resource division in Guangdong province. Journal of Natural Resources, 2005, 20(5):679-683.]
[9] MCVICAR T R, RODERICK M L, DONOHUE R J, et al. Global review and synthesis of trends in observed terrestrial near-surface wind speeds:Implications for evaporation. Journal of Hydrology, 2012, 416(3):182-205.
[10] VAUTARD R, JULIEN C, PASCAL Y, et al. Northern hemisphere atmospheric stilling partly attributed to an increase in surface roughness. Nature Geoscience, 2010, 3(11):756-761.
[11] PRYOR S C, BARTHELMIE R J, TAKLE G S. Wind speed trends over the contiguous USA. Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres, 2009, 114, D14105, Doi:10.1029/2008JD011416.
[12] ADDICKS K. An analysis of temperatures and wind speeds above Dome C, Antarctica. Astronomy&Astrophysics,2005, 415(2):739-746.
[13] TURNER J, STEVE R C, GARETH J M, et al. Antarctic climate change during the last 50 years. International Journal of Climatology, 2005, 25(3):279-294.
[14] LYNCH A H, CURRY J A, BRUNNER R D, et al. Toward an integrated assessment of the impacts of extreme wind events on Barrow, Alaska. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2004, 85(2):209-222.
[15]王遵娅,丁一汇,何金海,等.近50年来中国气候变化特征的再分析.气象学报, 2004, 62(2):228-236.[WANG Z Y,DING Y H, HE J H, et al. An updating analysis of the climate change in China in recent 50 years. Acta Meteor Sinica,2004, 62(2):228-236.]
[16]任国玉,郭军,徐铭志,等.近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征.气象学报, 2005, 63(6):942-956.[REN G Y, GUO J,XU M Z, et al. Climate changes of China's mainland over the past half century. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2005, 63(6):942-956.]
[17] XU M, CHANG C P, FU C B, et al. Steady decline of east Asian monsoon winds, 1969-2000:Evidence from direct ground measurements of wind speed. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2006, 111, D2411, Doi:10.1029/2006JD007337.
[18] FU G B, YU J J, ZHANG Y C, et al. Temporal variation of wind speed in China for 1961-2007. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2011, 104(3-4):313-324.
[19]中国气象局气候变化中心.中国气候变化监测公报.北京:气象出版社, 2014.[National Climate Center. China Climate Change Monitoring Bulletin. Beijing:China Meteorological Press, 2014.]
[20] JIANG Y, LUO Y, ZHAO Z C, et al. Changes in wind speed over China during 1956-2004. Theoretical&Applied Climatology, 2010, 99(3-4):421-430.
[21] GUO H, XU M, HU Q. Changes in near-surface wind speed in China:1969-2005. International Journal of Climatology,2011, 31(3):349-358.
[22] CHEN L, LI D, PRYOR S C. Wind speed trends over China:Quantifying the magnitude and assessing causality. International Journal of Climatology, 2013, 33(11):2579-2590.
[23] YOU Q L, KANG S C, FLUGEL W A, et al. Decreasing wind speed and weakening latitudinal surface pressure gradients in the Tibetan Plateau. Climate Research, 2010, 42(1):57-64.
[24]刘苏峡,邱建秀,莫兴国.华北平原1951年至2006年风速变化特征分析.资源科学, 2009, 31(9):1486-1492.[LIU S X, QIU J X, MO X G. Wind velocity variation from 1951 to 2006 in the North China Plain. Resources Science, 2009, 31(9):1486-1492.]
[25]金巍,任国玉,曲岩,等. 1971-2010年东北三省平均地面风速变化.干旱区究, 2012, 29(4):648-653.[JIN W, REN G Y, QU Y, et al. Change in surface mean wind speed of Northeast China during the period of 1971-2010. Arid Zone Research, 2012, 29(4):648-653.]
[26]张志斌,杨莹,张小平,等.我国西南地区风速变化及其影响因素.生态学报, 2014, 34(2):471-481.[ZHANG Z B,YANG Y, ZHANG X P, et al. Wind speed changes and its influencing factors in Southwestern China. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2014, 34(2):471-481.]
[27]唐宝琪,延军平,刘永林,等.全球气候变暖下华东4省1市风速变化特征.浙江大学学报:理学版, 2015, 42(5):575-583.[TANG B Q, YAN J P, LIU Y L, et al. The various characteristics about wind speed of Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui,Zhejiang provinces and Shanghai in the East China under the global warming. Journal of Zhejiang University:Science Edition, 2015, 42(5):575-583.]
[28]黄小燕,张明军,王圣杰,等.西北地区近50年日照时数和风速变化特征.自然资源学报, 2011, 26(5):825-835.[HUANG X Y, ZHANG M J, WANG S J, et al. Characteristics of variation in sunshine duration and wind speed in the last 50 years in Northwest China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2011, 26(5):825-835.]
[29]赵宗慈,罗勇,江滢,等.近50年中国风速减小的可能原因.气象科技展, 2016, 6(3):106-109.[ZHAO Z C, LUO Y,JIANG Y, et al. Possible reasons of wind speed decline in China for the last 50 Years. Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology, 2016, 6(3):106-109.]
[30]陈练.气候变暖背景下中国风速(能)变化及其影响因子研究.南京:南京信息工程大学, 2013.[CHEN L. Changes and their impact factors of wind speed(energy)over China under the background of climate warming. Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology, 2013.]
[31]李艳,王元,储惠芸,等.中国陆域近地层风能资源的气候变异和下垫面人为改变的影响.科学通报, 2008, 53(21):2646-2653.[LI Y, WANG Y, CHU H Y, et al. Climate variability of surface wind energy resources and influence of human-induced changes in underlying surfaces in land area of China. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2008, 53(21):2646-2653.]
[32]刘学锋,梁秀慧,任国玉,等.台站观测环境改变对我国近地面风速观测资料序列的影响.高原气象, 2012, 31(6):1645-1652.[LIU X F, LIANG X H, REN G Y, et al. Impact of the observational environment change on surface wind speed in China. Plateau Meteorology, 2012, 31(6):1645-1652.]
[33]刘小宁.我国40年年平均风速的均一性检验.应用气象学报, 2000, 11(1):27-34.[LIU X N. The homogeneity test on mean annual wind speed over China. Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology, 2000, 11(1):27-34.]
[34]曹丽娟,鞠晓慧,刘小宁,等. PMFT方法对我国年平均风速的均一性检验.气象, 2010, 36(10):52-56.[CAO L J, JU X H, LIU X N, et al. Penalized maximal F test for the homogeneity study of the annual mean wind speed over China.Journal of Meteorological Research, 2010, 36(10):52-56.]
[35] DUDANI S A. The distance-weighted k-nearest-neighbor rule. IEEE Transactions on Systems Man&Cybernetics,1976, 6(4):325-327.
[36]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术:第2版.北京:气象出版社, 2007.[WEI F Y. Modern Climate Statistic Diagnosis and Prediction Technology. 2ndedition. Beijing:China Meteorological Press, 2007.]
[37] CRESSMAN G P. An operational objective analysis system. Monthly Weather Review, 1959, 87(10):367-374.
[38]江滢,罗勇,赵宗慈,等.近50年中国风速变化及原因分析//中国气象学会年会, 2007.[JIANG Y, LUO Y, ZHAO Z C, et al. Analysis of wind speed changes and reasons in China in recent 50 years. In:The Annual Meeting of Chinese Meteorological Society, 2007.]
[39]张莉,任国玉.中国北方沙尘暴频数演化及其气候成因分析.气象学报, 2003, 61(6):744-750.[ZHANG L, REN G Y.Change in dust storm frequency and the climatic controls in Northern China. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2003, 61(6):744-750.]
[40]王新敏,邹旭恺,翟盘茂.北半球温带气旋的变化.气候变化研究进展, 2007, 3(3):154-157.[WANG X M, ZOU X K,ZHAI P M. Researches on extratropical cyclone variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2007, 3(3):154-157.]
[41]赵宗慈,罗勇,江滢.全球大风在减少吗?.气候变化研究展, 2011, 7(2):149-151.[ZHAO Z C, LUO Y, JIANG Y. Is global strong wind declining?. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2011, 7(2):149-151.]
[42]王艳玲,郭品文.春季北方气旋活动的气候特征及与气温和降水的关系.大气科学学报, 2005, 28(3):391-397.[WANG Y L, GUO P W. Climatic characteristics of northern cyclone activity in spring and their relationship to rainfall and temperature in China. Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, 2005, 28(3):391-397.]
[43]朱乾根,林锦瑞,寿绍文,等.天气学原理和方法.北京:气象出版社, 2000:131-145.[ZHU Q G, LIN J R, SHOU S W, et al. Principles and Technique of Synoptic Meteorology. Beijing:China Meteorological Press, 2000:131-145.]
[44]段春锋.中国地面风速变化及其影响因子的研究.南京:南京信息工程大学, 2009.[DUAN C F. Study on the variation of surface wind speed and its affecting factors in China. Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology, 2009.]
[45]田莉.中国北方地区地面风速变化特征及其影响因子研究.兰州:兰州大学, 2012.[TIAN L. Studies on characteristics and impact factors of the surface wind speed changes in the Northern China. Lanzhou:Lanzhou University, 2012.]