基于灰色关联与粗糙依赖度的甘肃兰州市区泥石流危险性评价
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摘要
危险性评价是泥石流灾害研究的主要问题之一,多因子综合评价是泥石流危险性评估的主要模式。由于泥石流灾害的不确定性和灾害系统的复杂性,因而非确定性分析方法成为其评估首选的研究方法。本研究以泥石流频发的兰州市为例,针对常规研究中选取的坡度等10个地形影响因子,首先应用复相关系数法去除地形因子间相关性,获得综合主要地形影响因子的地形易发性因子;然后,从地形易发性、地质岩性、地貌类型、降雨、植被覆盖度5个影响因子出发,应用灰色关联度、粗糙依赖度以及融合灰色关联度与粗糙依赖度的模糊综合方法获取泥石流危险性评价图。评价结果可知:(1)地形起伏度、坡向变率、地表粗糙度、坡长、坡度变率、植被覆盖度和降雨对该地区泥石流的发生具有一定的控制作用,与现场调查结果相吻合;(2)将三种评估结果与泥石流灾害进行叠加分析发现,研究区大多数泥石流点分布在0. 4～0. 6和0. 6～0. 8区间,且三种方法获得结果的趋势一致,均较客观地反映研究区泥石流危险性的空间分布;(3)由ROC曲线分析,灰色关联度和粗糙依赖度的评估结果精度比较接近,其ROC曲线下面积均接近0. 7;融合灰色关联和粗糙依赖法的模糊综合方法所得的ROC曲线下面积大于0. 7,其说明该模型评估的结果较好地反映泥石流危险性分布,具有较高的可信度。
Hazard assessment is one of the key issues in disaster studies of debris flow. And comprehensive assessment with multiple factors is the main mode of them. Because of uncertainty and complexity,nondeterministic analysis has already become the preferred approach. This study take Lanzhou,a provincial capital with frequent debris flows,as an example. Firstly,the relationship among 10 topographic factors,such as slope,et al.,was taken away with the method of complex correlation coefficient and the topographic susceptibility factor was gained from them. Then, using five factors, for example, the topographic susceptibility,the geological lithology,landform,the precipitation and vegetation coverage and the hazard assessment maps were obtained with three methods of grey relational degree,rough dependence degree and fuzzy comprehensive method with grey relational degree and rough dependence degree. The conclusions are as follows:( 1) These debris flows in the study area are controlled by seven factors,including the relief,slope aspect,surface coarseness,slope length,slope of slope,vegetation cover and precipitation,which are coincided with field investigation.( 2) After overlaying and analyzing these assessment maps with the data of debris flows,it shows that most of the points of debris flows were taken place in the grades of 0. 4 ～ 0. 6 and0. 6 ～ 0. 8,these results from three methods are consistent and better show the special distribution of the debris flows in the study area.( 3) From ROC analysis,the accuracy from grey relational degree and rough dependence degree are rather similar and the area under ROC curve is close to 0. 7. However,the method of fuzzy comprehensive weight determination with grey relational degree and rough dependence degree shows high credibility with the area of bigger than 0. 7,which better reflect the debris flow distribution in the study area.
Hazard assessment is one of the key issues in disaster studies of debris flow. And comprehensive assessment with multiple factors is the main mode of them. Because of uncertainty and complexity,nondeterministic analysis has already become the preferred approach. This study take Lanzhou,a provincial capital with frequent debris flows,as an example. Firstly,the relationship among 10 topographic factors,such as slope,et al.,was taken away with the method of complex correlation coefficient and the topographic susceptibility factor was gained from them. Then, using five factors, for example, the topographic susceptibility,the geological lithology,landform,the precipitation and vegetation coverage and the hazard assessment maps were obtained with three methods of grey relational degree,rough dependence degree and fuzzy comprehensive method with grey relational degree and rough dependence degree. The conclusions are as follows:( 1) These debris flows in the study area are controlled by seven factors,including the relief,slope aspect,surface coarseness,slope length,slope of slope,vegetation cover and precipitation,which are coincided with field investigation.( 2) After overlaying and analyzing these assessment maps with the data of debris flows,it shows that most of the points of debris flows were taken place in the grades of 0. 4 ～ 0. 6 and0. 6 ～ 0. 8,these results from three methods are consistent and better show the special distribution of the debris flows in the study area.( 3) From ROC analysis,the accuracy from grey relational degree and rough dependence degree are rather similar and the area under ROC curve is close to 0. 7. However,the method of fuzzy comprehensive weight determination with grey relational degree and rough dependence degree shows high credibility with the area of bigger than 0. 7,which better reflect the debris flow distribution in the study area.
引文
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[2]刘希林，陈宜娟．泥石流风险区划方法及其应用———以四川西部地区为例[J]．地理科学，2010(4):558-565.LIU Xilin,CHEN Yijuan. Application of debris flow risk zonation:an example of west Sichuan[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2010(4):558-565.
[3]牛全福，冯尊斌，党星海，等．黄土区滑坡研究中地形因子的选取与适宜性分析[J]．地球信息科学学报，2017,19(12):1584-1592.NIU Quanfu,FENG Zunbin,DANG Xinghai,et al.Suitability analysis of topographic factors in loess landslide research[J]. Journal of Geo-Information Science,2017,19(12):1584-1592.
[4]丁明涛，韦方强，王欢，等．基于聚类分析的三江并流区泥石流危险性评价[J]．资源科学，2012,34(7):1257-1265.DING Mingtao,WEI Fangqiang,WANG Huan,et al.Hazard assessment of debris flow based on cluster analysis in three parallel rivers area[J]. Resources Science,2012,34(7):1257-1265.
[5]宁娜，张鹏，马金珠，等．基于灰色关联度与模糊评判的泥石流危险性评价[J]．人民长江，2013(增刊1):111-123.NING Na,ZHANG Peng,MA Jinzhu,et al. Debris flow risk assessment based on gray relational degree and fuzzy evaluation[J]. Yangtze River,2013(S1):111-123.
[6]罗冠枝，徐林荣．基于粗糙集和灰色理论的模糊综合定权法在泥石流危险性评价中的应用[J]．安全与环境工程，2008,15(3):1-6.LUO Guanzhi, XU Linrong. Application of fuzzy synthetic method based on rough set theory and grey theory in debris flow hazard assessment[J]. Safety and Environmental Engineering,2008,15(3):1-6.
[7]孟凡奇，李广杰，李明，等．逐步判别分析法在筛选泥石流评价因子中的应用[J]．岩土力学，2010,31(9):2925-2929.MENG Fanqi, LI Guangjie, LI Ming, et al.Application of stepwise discriminant analysis to screening evaluation factors of debris flow[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics,2010,31(9):2925-2929.
[8]刘希林，尚志海．自然灾害风险主要分析方法及其适用性述评[J]．地理科学进展，2014,33(11):1486-1497.LIU Xilin,SHANG Zhihai. Risk analysis methods of natural disasters and their applicability[J]. Progress in Geography,2014,33(11):1486-1497.
[9] ALEXANDER D. Natural disasters:a framework for research and teaching[J]. Disasters,2010,15(3):209-226.
[10] CARRARA A,CARDINALI M,DETTI R,et al. GIS techniques and statistical models in evaluating landslide hazard[J]. Earth Surface Processes&Landforms,2010,16(5):427-445.
[11] ZARN B, DAVIES T R H. The significance of processes on alluvial fans to hazard assessment[J].Annals of Geomorphology,1994,38(4):487-500.
[12] FELL R. Landslide risk assessment and acceptable risk[J]. Canadian Geotechnical Journal,1994(31):261-272.
[13] LIU X L,LEI J Z. A method for assessing regional debris flow risk:an application in Zhaotong of Yunnan Province(SW China)[J]. Geomorphology,2003,52(3/4):181-191.
[14]刘希林，莫多闻．泥石流风险评价[M]．成都:四川科学技术出版社，2003.LIU Xilin,MO Duowen. Debris flow risk assessment[M]. Chengdu:Sichuan Science and Technology Press,2003.
[15]刘希林．区域泥石流危险度评价研究进展[J]．中国地质灾害与防治学报，2002,13(4):1-9.LIU Xilin. Advance in research on assessment for degree of regional debris flow hazard[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2002,13(4):1-9.
[16]王晓朋，潘懋，任群智．基于流域系统地貌信息熵的泥石流危险性定量评价[J]．北京大学学报:自然科学版，2007,43(2):211-215.WANG Xiaopeng,PAN Mao,REN Qunzhi. Hazard assessment of debris flow based on geomorphic information entropy in Catchment[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2007,43(2):211-215.
[17]石磊．线性回归模型复相关系数的影响评价[J]．云南大学学报(自然科学版)，1995,17(2):136-139.SHI Lei. Assessing local injluence for multiple correlation coefficients in regression model[J].Journal of Yunnan University(Natural Sciences),1995,17(2):136-139.
[18] MOORE R, MCINNES R G. Cowes to Gurnard coastal stability:providing the tools and information for effective planning and management of unstable land[J]. Thomas Telford,2002.
[19]李志斌，郑成德．滑坡、泥石流危险度评判的灰色模式识别理论与模型[J]．系统工程理论与实践，2000(5):128-132.LI Zhibin,ZHENG Chengde. Grey-mode identification theory and model for landslide and debris flow risk degree[J]. Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice,2000(5):128-132.
[20]刘海，陈华．基于层次分析法的未确知测度理论泥石流危险性评价[J]．长江流域资源与环境，2012,21(8):1033-1038.LIU Hai,CHEN Hua. Hazard assessment of debris flow based on uncertainty measure theroy and AHP[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtza Basin,2012,21(8):1033-1038.
[21]冯乐涛，宿星，吴玮江，等．兰州市地质灾害分布规律及预警评价研究[J]．甘肃科学学报，2014,26(5):63-67.FENG Letao, SU Xing, WU Weijiang, et al.Distribution regularity and early warning evaluation of geological hazards in Lanzhou[J]. Journal of Gansu Sciences,2014,26(5):63-67.
[22]王伟．兰州地区滑坡泥石流分布及灾害特征[J]．环境科学，2007,35(6):177-180.WANG Wei. Landslide and debris flow distribution and disaster characteristics in Lanzhou area[J].Environmental Science,2007,35(6):177-180.
[23]王得楷，马琦明，陈怀录，等．甘肃城市建设地质灾害防治研究[J]．甘肃科学学报，2010,22(3):53-56.WANG Dekai,MA Qiming,CHEN Huailu,et al.Study on the prevention and control of geological disasters in Gansu urban construction[J]. Journal of Gansu Sciences,2010,22(3):53-56.
[24]吴文建，张世涛，张光政，等．基于灰色关联分析法的泥石流危险性评价———以泸水县银坡河泥石流为例[J]．地质灾害与环境保护，2017,28(3):30-32.WU Wenjian,ZHANG Shitao,ZHANG Guangzheng,et al. Debris flow risk assessment based on grey correlation analysis method:a case study of Yinpohe debris flow in Lushui County[J]. Journal of Geological Hazards and Environment Preservation,2017,28(3):30-32.
[25]吕擎峰，李军鹏，赵本山，等．基于灰色关联度法的可拓理论在霍尔古吐水电站坝址区泥石流危险性评价中的应用[J]．工程地质学报，2016,24(2):211-219.LYU Qingfeng,LI Junpeng,ZHAO Benshan,et al.Debris flow risk assessment at Huoergutu hydropower dam site using grey correlation method and extension theory[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology,2016,24(2):211-219
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