淮南市生态承载力评价及障碍度分析
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摘要
以基于驱动力、压力、状态、影响、响应的DPSIR概念模型构建生态承载力评价指标体系,借助熵权法给指标赋权,采用基于TOPSIS法的模糊物元评价模型和障碍度模型,对淮南市的城市环境支撑阈值进行研究,评价其生态承载力水平,识别其障碍因子。结果表明:2010-2016年淮南市的生态承载力水平较低,评价等级最优只达中级,但从总体来看生态承载力水平呈波动中缓慢上升的态势;从子系统承载力变化趋势来看,只有驱动力子系统的贴近度趋于平稳,其他四个子系统的贴近度均呈不同幅度的上升或下降态势;影响淮南市生态承载力的主要障碍因子包括人口密度、第二产业对GDP的贡献率、工业废水排放量、建成区绿化覆盖率等;2015年以后,压力子系统的障碍度下降为最低,响应子系统成为阻碍生态承载力发展的首要因素,其次是状态子系统和驱动力子系统。
In order to understand the environmental support threshold of Huainan and to promote the sustainable development of the ecological environment of cities, this study builds up the evaluation index system of Huainan ecological carrying capacity based on the driving force(D), pressure(P), state(S), influence(I), and response(R), namely DPSIR concept model. The entropy weight method is used to give the index system. Empowerment, fuzzy matter-element evaluation model based on the TOPSIS method and obstacle model are used to carry out the empirical analysis in Huainan as an example, to evaluate the level of its ecological carrying capacity and to identify its obstacle factors. The results showed that:(1) the ecological carrying capacity of Huainan was low in the years of 2010-2016, the optimal evaluation level was only intermediate,but in general, the level of the ecological carrying capacity was in a slow rise in the fluctuation.(2) from the change trend of the carrying capacity of the subsystem, only the close degree of the driving subsystem tended to be stable, and the other four were four. The close degree of the sub-system all showed a rising or decreasing trend in different ranges;(3) the main obstacle factors affecting the ecological carrying capacity of Huainan include population density, the contribution rate of the second industry to the GDP, the discharge of the industrial waste water and the afforestation coverage of the built-up area.(4) after 2015, the obstacle degree of the pressure subsystem fell to the most. Low response subsystem is the primary factor hindering the development of the ecological carrying capacity, followed by state subsystem and driving force subsystem.
In order to understand the environmental support threshold of Huainan and to promote the sustainable development of the ecological environment of cities, this study builds up the evaluation index system of Huainan ecological carrying capacity based on the driving force(D), pressure(P), state(S), influence(I), and response(R), namely DPSIR concept model. The entropy weight method is used to give the index system. Empowerment, fuzzy matter-element evaluation model based on the TOPSIS method and obstacle model are used to carry out the empirical analysis in Huainan as an example, to evaluate the level of its ecological carrying capacity and to identify its obstacle factors. The results showed that:(1) the ecological carrying capacity of Huainan was low in the years of 2010-2016, the optimal evaluation level was only intermediate,but in general, the level of the ecological carrying capacity was in a slow rise in the fluctuation.(2) from the change trend of the carrying capacity of the subsystem, only the close degree of the driving subsystem tended to be stable, and the other four were four. The close degree of the sub-system all showed a rising or decreasing trend in different ranges;(3) the main obstacle factors affecting the ecological carrying capacity of Huainan include population density, the contribution rate of the second industry to the GDP, the discharge of the industrial waste water and the afforestation coverage of the built-up area.(4) after 2015, the obstacle degree of the pressure subsystem fell to the most. Low response subsystem is the primary factor hindering the development of the ecological carrying capacity, followed by state subsystem and driving force subsystem.
引文
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[14]向秀容,潘韬,吴绍洪,等.基于生态足迹的天山北坡经济带生态承载力评价与预测[J].地理研究,2016,35(5):875-884.
[15]朱玉林,李明杰,顾荣华.基于压力-状态-响应模型的长株潭城市群生态承载力安全预警研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(12):2057-2064.
[16]张永安,马昱.基于熵权TOPSIS法的区域技术创新政策评价研究[J].科技管理研究,2017,37(6):92-97.
[17]何刚,夏业领,朱艳娜,等.基于DPSIR-TOPSIS模型的安徽省土地承载力评价及预测[J].水土保持通报,2018,38(2):127-134.
[18]吴赐联,朱斌.基于熵权TOPSIS的创新型城市发展评价及障碍因子诊断--以莆田市为例[J].科技管理研究,2015,35(24):76-81.
[19]周迎雪,李贻学,孙仪阳,等.基于不同评价模型的土地生态安全评价--以山东半岛蓝色经济区为例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(S2):207-210.
[20]鲁春阳,文枫,杨庆媛,等.基于改进TOPSIS法的城市土地利用绩效评价及障碍因子诊断--以重庆市为例[J].资源科学,2011,33(3):535-541.
[2]韩术合,张寿庭,裴秋明.资源型城市转型及可持续发展研究综述[J].国土资源科技管理,2016,33(1):102-109.
[3]IRANKHAHI M,JOZI S A,FARSHCHI P,et al.Providing a gis-based combined model applied to evaluate urban environment carrying capacity in shemiran city,Iran[J].Journal of Environmental Science&Management,2017,20(1):47-61.
[4]王雅敬,谢炳庚,李晓青,等.喀斯特地区耕地生态承载力供需平衡[J].生态学报,2017,37(21):7030-7038.
[5]巩杰,柳冬青,马学成,等.甘肃省白龙江流域生态承载力的时空变化[J].水土保持通报,2017,37(6):242-247+352.
[6]MA P,YE G,PENG X,et al.Development of an index system for evaluation of ecological carrying capacity of marine ecosystems[J].Ocean&Coastal Management,2017,144:23-30.
[7]祝凌云,张大红.吉林省长白县森林生态承载力评价[J].生态科学,2016,35(5):176-182.
[8]刘婷,赵伟,黄婧,等.三峡库区重庆段生态承载力时空演变研究[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2018,40(1):115-125.
[9]苗世龙,程婕,刘捷,等.天津市生态承载力分析[J].中国生态农业学报,2008(06):1546-1551.
[10]熊建新,陈端吕,谢雪梅.基于状态空间法的洞庭湖区生态承载力综合评价研究[J].经济地理,2012,32(11):138-142.
[11]蒋汝成,顾世祥.熵权法--正态云模型在云南省水生态承载力评价中的应用[J].水资源与水工程学报,2018,29(3):118-123.
[12]吕雪松,杨红.大金山岛生态承载力评价[J].上海海洋大学学报,2016,25(5):767-774.
[13]王影,柴立和.生态承载力水平评价的动态模型及其应用--以洞庭湖生态经济区为例[J].环境科学学报,2016,36(5):1859-1865.
[14]向秀容,潘韬,吴绍洪,等.基于生态足迹的天山北坡经济带生态承载力评价与预测[J].地理研究,2016,35(5):875-884.
[15]朱玉林,李明杰,顾荣华.基于压力-状态-响应模型的长株潭城市群生态承载力安全预警研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(12):2057-2064.
[16]张永安,马昱.基于熵权TOPSIS法的区域技术创新政策评价研究[J].科技管理研究,2017,37(6):92-97.
[17]何刚,夏业领,朱艳娜,等.基于DPSIR-TOPSIS模型的安徽省土地承载力评价及预测[J].水土保持通报,2018,38(2):127-134.
[18]吴赐联,朱斌.基于熵权TOPSIS的创新型城市发展评价及障碍因子诊断--以莆田市为例[J].科技管理研究,2015,35(24):76-81.
[19]周迎雪,李贻学,孙仪阳,等.基于不同评价模型的土地生态安全评价--以山东半岛蓝色经济区为例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(S2):207-210.
[20]鲁春阳,文枫,杨庆媛,等.基于改进TOPSIS法的城市土地利用绩效评价及障碍因子诊断--以重庆市为例[J].资源科学,2011,33(3):535-541.