围岩突变的时空预测研究
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摘要
根据监测成果,试图提出一种较为合理可行的分析围岩是否稳定的非线性方法。通过R/S分析法定性分析与BP网络定量预测,不仅确定了潜在的开裂剖面与受波及剖面,而且预测了安装在上述剖面的3套仪器各测点20天内的围岩位移情况,在此基础上,基于突变理论,探讨了潜在的危险剖面是否可能出现开裂、开裂的具体时间以及裂缝深度等问题,提出了围岩开裂的时空判据。研究结果显示,基于突变理论的测点位移-时间序列满足条件Δ<0,则测点所处剖面为潜在开裂剖面。另外,开裂剖面的连续位移-时间序列的Δ出现最大正峰值是围岩即将开裂的征兆与警示,出现最小负峰值的时间则是围岩的可能开裂时间。
A reasonable and feasible nonlinear way was used to analyze whether surrounding rock steady based on monitoring result.Not only was determined potential fracturing section and influenced section,but also displacement of surrounding rock where all measurement points of three apparatuses located in 20 days was forecasted by qualitative analysis of R/S method and quantitative prediction of BP networks.Some problems,including whether potential dangerous section cracks,exact time of fracturing and crack depth,were investigated.Time space criterion on surrounding-rock fracturing was presented.It was shown that the section where displacement-time series satisfy Δ<0 is possible fracturing one.The occurrence of Δ positive maximum of continuous displacement-time series in fracturing section indicates the alarm of forthcoming fracturing of surrounding rock,and the appearance of minus maximum is the possible fracturing time.
A reasonable and feasible nonlinear way was used to analyze whether surrounding rock steady based on monitoring result.Not only was determined potential fracturing section and influenced section,but also displacement of surrounding rock where all measurement points of three apparatuses located in 20 days was forecasted by qualitative analysis of R/S method and quantitative prediction of BP networks.Some problems,including whether potential dangerous section cracks,exact time of fracturing and crack depth,were investigated.Time space criterion on surrounding-rock fracturing was presented.It was shown that the section where displacement-time series satisfy Δ<0 is possible fracturing one.The occurrence of Δ positive maximum of continuous displacement-time series in fracturing section indicates the alarm of forthcoming fracturing of surrounding rock,and the appearance of minus maximum is the possible fracturing time.
引文
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[3]Huang Qiuxiang,Wang Jialin,Deng Jianhui.Slopedeformation character analysis based on monitoringresults of multiple multi-point borehole extensometer[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2009,28(S1):2667-2673.[黄秋香,汪家林,邓建辉.基于多点位移计监测成果的坡体变形特征分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(增1):2667-2673.]
[4]He Jiangda,Lin Zhengwei,Wang Qizhi.Abutment stabilityand structure characteristic research of jinping high archdam[J].Journal of Sichuan University:EngineeringScience Edition,2004,36(2):12-16.[何江达,林正伟,王启智.锦屏一级高拱坝结构特性及坝肩稳定性研究[J].四川大学学报:工程科学版,2004,36(2):12-16.]
[5]Deng Jianhui,Lee C F,Ge Xiurun.Application of bpnetwork and genetic algorithm to displacement backanalysis of rock slopes[J].Chinese Journal of RockMechanics and Engineering,2001,20(1):1-5.[邓建辉,李焯芬,葛修润.BP网络和遗传算法在岩石边坡位移反分析中的应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2001,20(1):1-5.]
[6]Feng Xiating,Zhang Zhiqiang.Intelligent prediction ofexcavation displacement of the navigation lock slope inThree Gorges Project[J].Journal of Liaoning TechnicalUniversity:Natural Science,1999,18(5):463-465.[冯夏庭,张治强.三峡永久船闸高边坡开挖变形智能预测[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报:自然科学版,1999,18(5):463-465.]
[7]Feng xiating,Zhou hui,Li shaojun.System of intelligentevaluation and prediction in space-time for safety of rockengineering under hazardous environment[J].ChineseJournal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2008,27(9):1741-1756.[冯夏庭,周辉,李邵军.复杂条件下岩石工程安全性的时空预测系统[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(9):1741-1756.]
[8]Hurst H E.Long-term storage capacity of reservoirs[J].Transactions of American Society of Civil Engineers,1951,116:770-808.
[9]Mandelbrot B B,Van Vess J W.Fractional brownianmotion,fractional noises,and applications[J].SIAMRev,1968,10(4):422-437.
[10]Aoki K,Kanezashi M,Maeda C.Learning algorithm forneural networks by solving nonlinearequations[C]//Proceedings of the Second InternationalForum on Applications of Neural Networks to PowerSystems,1993(ANNPS’93).1993:461-466.
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