摘要
Cultivating rice will get both obvious economic and social benefits, but extending the paddy field area blindly and extensive irrigation water management mode have also brought some negative effects. Therefore, determining the scale of paddy field development reasonably has become an important issue in the planning of regional farming. The future of the paddy field appropriate development scale was analyzed and forecasted in Jiansanjiang Administration, and indicates that the local soil and water resources have the condition to develop the paddy field area. In addition, we calculated the rice comprehensive gross irrigation quota of different planning years, and showed that the Jiansanjiang Administration should reduce paddy field area appropriately to 2010–2015 level; the local paddy field area and the proportion will show a trend of gradual increase during 2015–2030. By 2030, the local suitable development scale of paddy field will reach 386,153 ha, back to 78.6 % of the paddy field area of 2009, which fully illustrates the constraint effect of water resources on rice production. The suitable area of paddy field and its growing proportion put forward in this paper offered macroscopic guidance for the local development of water-saving agriculture and the adjustment of agricultural planting structure.