摘要
In recent decades, increasing conflicts have occurred between different water users because of issues related to water resource allocation. To better allocate water resources, this study adopts the latest water rights trading model instead of the traditional water resources allocation model and combines it with a two-stage interval-parameter stochastic programming model (TISP). The combined model was applied to the Sanjiang Plain with multi-area, multi-source, and multi-water users, and the optimized promised water availability for every user in the area was obtained. The analysis shows that a higher promised water availability corresponds to a higher benefit but also promotes additional risks because of water shortages, whereas a lower promised water availability corresponds to a lower benefit, although it is more likely to result in water waste at high inflow levels. The combined model formed an effective link between water use benefits and water deficiency punishments that enabled us to obtain an optimized promised water availability that considers benefits and risks simultaneously. The second result is that the water rights trading model can improve the utilization efficiency of water resources, which are typically transferred from inefficient water use areas to efficient water use areas, resulting in a benefit to all areas. Additionally, in the water rights trading model, self-profit motivation at a micro-level can emerge in adaptation at a macro-level, which stabilizes the water resource system and reduces the possibility of system collapse because of extreme water shortages.