摘要
We aimed to provide whole-of-basin simulations of flows and diversions in the Murray-Darling Basin for economic and policy analysis. We describe a model based on a subdivision of the basin into 58 catchments. In each catchment, the monthly runoff, river flow and irrigation demand are modelled as lumped processes. This is the first single model of the whole of the Murray-Darling Basin. The model was calibrated using monthly flow and annual diversion records, both by trial and error and using an automated method. We use the model to examine the impact on the flow and diversions in the Murray-Darling Basin of proposed diversion reductions and climate change. The diversion reductions return water to the environment, increasing river flows below the main irrigation areas. However, a middle-of-the-range climate change projection may result in a 13?% decrease in total flows in 2030, which offsets the enhancement to flows gained by diversion reductions.