摘要
This paper presents an innovative contribution in considering the combined effect of wind farms and grid transmission capacity on loss of load probability (LOLP), rather than just the effect of wind capacity alone. The demonstrated methodology can be generally applied in system adequacy studies for generation expansion and transmission planning. This is of high relevance for planning the power systems of the future with large offshore wind farms and strong transnational grids. The methodology is demonstrated using data from a real life regional hydro-based power system with a predicted need for new generation and/or reinforcement of interconnections to meet future demand. The region is in proximity to favourable offshore wind resources that can be an option for new generation. The question is if adding wind power to the hydro-based system will be sufficient or if additional measures must be taken to secure system adequacy. The paper concludes that wind power and grid expansion will have a positive effect on system adequacy. Wind power contributes to reducing the LOLP and can be attributed a capacity value. It shows that the smoothing effect due to geographical distribution of wind power contributes significantly to increasing the wind capacity value in systems with high penetration of wind energy. Further, the LOLP and wind capacity value are sensitive towards the assumed average wind power generation, but robust towards normal variations of the availability and power curve.