摘要
This study focuses on the calibration and evaluation of MIKE BASIN/NAM model to simulate and manage the water resources on the Corgo River Basin (CRB) and assess the impacts of wildfires in water quantity. This study includes: (a) a description of the CRB from the geological, climatological and land use point of view; (b) an assessment of the major changes in CRB settings observed in recent years; and, (c) report the influence of wildfires on runoff. NAM parameters were automatically calibrated by comparing model runoff estimates with observed time series to maximise the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NS). Obtained results during calibration (NS = 0.82, R 2 = 0.83) and validation processes (NS = 0.84, R 2 = 0.87) confirms the ability of MIKE BASIN/NAM to simulate the runoff variability at different scales. In the last decades, the CRB experienced a significant precipitation decrease at annual (−18 mm/year) and seasonal scale (−7 mm/year in winter and spring), substantial changes in land use and land cover (e.g., −30 % of forests and 170 % of urban areas) and frequent wildfires (1215 ha/year). The influence of wildfires is noticeable in runoff simulations with higher runoff peaks after heavy precipitation, lower runoff during dry periods and an average (maximum) increase in daily runoff of 5 % (20 %) during the validation period.