摘要
The land fallow policy was adopted by central and local governments to encourage the abandonment of water-intensive crops, such as winter wheat, in groundwater over-exploited areas. At the same time, since the 1990s, many households in the North China Plain (NCP) have chosen to replace the winter wheat and summer maize double-cropping system with the spring maize single-cropping system. Therefore, it is crucial to identify target land parcels for winter wheat abandonment and to design reasonable and proper standards for ecological compensation prior to the implementation of the land fallow policy in the NCP. In this study, multi-level logit models were used with household survey data in order to detect determinants across land parcel, household and village levels on household cropping system decisions; the opportunity costs for winter wheat abandonment were also calculated using cost–benefit analysis. The results show that: (1) land quality and irrigation condition at parcel level are two essential elements influencing household cropping system decisions. Nearly 70% of the total area of poor land and more than 90% of the total area of unirrigated land has suffered winter wheat abandonment. Target land parcels for the land fallow policy should be those that are irrigated and of high quality. (2) There were no significant differences between net profits from spring maize and summer maize under similar farming conditions, and the opportunity cost for winter wheat abandonment should be equal to the net profit of winter wheat. (3) The primary purpose of the land fallow policy is to induce groundwater recovery and restoration as a preliminary stage. A higher level of 350 yuan/mu is recommended as subsidy for ecological compensation at this stage. Later, the primary purpose of the policy should be a transition to a balance between exploitation and supplementation of water resources, and a lower level of 280 yuan/mu is recommended as a subsidy at this stage.Keywordsland fallowecological compensationmulti-level logit modelopportunity costgroundwater over-exploited areas