四川省“农业+旅游业”融合发展的实证研究——基于VAR模型
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摘要
选取四川省1997—2017年的时间序列数据,以农林牧渔总产值、国内旅游收入、入境游客人数3个指标作为变量,衡量四川省农业发展水平、旅游发展水平、国内旅游资源对国外游客吸引力情况。结果发现:入境游客每增加1%,农林牧渔总产值平均增加0. 27%;国内旅游收入每增加1%,农林牧渔总产值平均下降0. 62%;农林牧渔总产值与国内旅游收入间存在双向因果关系。脉冲响应结果表明:农业与旅游业、农业与入境游客都对来自彼此的信息冲击响应是长期正向的,随着期数增加,响应程度趋于平稳。
This paper selects the time series of Sichuan province from 1997 to 2017,and makes the gross output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,domestic tourism income,inbound tourists three indicators respectively as variant to measure the Sichuan agricultural development level,development level of tourism,attraction index of domestic tourism resources on foreign tourists.It is found that:for every 1%increase in inbound tourists,the total output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery increased by 0.27% on average.For every 1% increase in domestic tourism income,the total output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery decreased by 0.62% on average.There is a two-way causal relationship between the gross output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,and domestic tourism income.The result of impulse response indicates that agriculture and tourism industry,agriculture and inbound tourists have a long-term positive response to the information impact from each other,and the response level tends to be stable with the increase of the period.
This paper selects the time series of Sichuan province from 1997 to 2017,and makes the gross output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,domestic tourism income,inbound tourists three indicators respectively as variant to measure the Sichuan agricultural development level,development level of tourism,attraction index of domestic tourism resources on foreign tourists.It is found that:for every 1%increase in inbound tourists,the total output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery increased by 0.27% on average.For every 1% increase in domestic tourism income,the total output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery decreased by 0.62% on average.There is a two-way causal relationship between the gross output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,and domestic tourism income.The result of impulse response indicates that agriculture and tourism industry,agriculture and inbound tourists have a long-term positive response to the information impact from each other,and the response level tends to be stable with the increase of the period.
引文
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[15]舒波,曹旸,魏金金.县域工旅农产业协同度测度研究——以河北省典型县域为例[J].数学的实践与认识,2017,47(9):1-10.
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[2]陆晓清,罗仕伟,黄红星.旅游业循环经济发展研究[J].重庆科技学院学报(社会科学版),2008(6):98-99.
[3]肖建勇,郑向敏.我国旅游业的产业融合路径选择[J].宏观经济研究,2011(12):72-78.
[4] CHANG T Y. The influence of agricultural policies on agriculture structure adjustment in Taiwan:An analysis of off-farm labormovement[J]. China Agricultural Economic Review,2011,3(1):67-79.
[5]李进军,陈云川.现代旅游农业产业融合发展业态及问题分析[J].商业经济研究,2017(15):167-169.
[6]杨惠玲,江雨.创意农业与旅游产业融合发展实证研究——以四川省省级示范农业主题公园为研究对象[J].中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(7):226-231.
[7]刘霞.基于路径依赖的河南农业与旅游业融合发展研究[J].中国农业资源与区划,2016(3):233-236.
[8]朱虹,殷志扬.特色农业与乡村旅游协同发展路径探略[J].农业经济,2017(11):54-55.
[9]唐书转.基于产业融合视角的河南休闲农业旅游资源开发[J].中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(3):221-224.
[10]乔洁,乐腾.河北省生态农业旅游的发展现状与对策分析[J].生态经济,2016,32(2):133-138.
[11]李林.吉林省农业旅游资源开发研究[J].中国农业资源与划,2016(4):219-223.
[12]周艳丽.生态经济视角下海南热带农业与旅游业耦合发展研究[J].农业经济,2016(12):21-23.
[13]夏杰长,徐金海.中国旅游业与农业融合发展的实证研究[J].经济与管理研究,2016(1):77-83.
[14]周蕾,段龙龙,王冲.农业与旅游产业融合发展的耦合机制——以四川省为例[J]农村经济,2016(10):40-45.
[15]舒波,曹旸,魏金金.县域工旅农产业协同度测度研究——以河北省典型县域为例[J].数学的实践与认识,2017,47(9):1-10.
[16]宋时蒙,蒋盛益.广东省各市旅游业发展水平研究——基于主成分分析和聚类分析方法[J].财经理论研究,2017(1):40-49.
[17]林海丽.英国农业休闲旅游发展的经验与启示[J].世界农业,2016(4):130-134.
[18]李南洁.乡村旅游开发中农民权益保障满意度实证分析——基于重庆乡村旅游开发区的595份调查问卷[J].重庆工商大学学报(社会科学版),2017(2):34-75.
[19]袁俊,刘艳红.旅游业发展的效率评价与转型升级[J].重庆社会科学,2017(3):40-46.