基于随机截尾数据及极大似然估计的继电保护可靠性分布
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摘要
保护装置缺陷严重影响装置运行可靠性。装置缺陷分布是评估装置可靠性的重要依据。受制于装置运行时间长,缺陷发生率低,无法获取完整的缺陷数据,缺陷数据存在随机截尾特征。采用极大似然估计法,基于两参数的威布尔分布模型,实现对继电保护装置缺陷分布的参数估计。基于保护装置的电源模块、CPU模块、交流采样模块及液晶显示模块存在独立分布的假设,建立装置整体缺陷分布的联合分布模型,实现对装置各模块及整体缺陷概率分布模型的参数估计。所提出的方法能够有效指导装置缺陷分布分析,并指导装置检修。
Defects of protective device seriously affect its operation reliability. Device defect distribution is an important basis for evaluating device reliability. Due to the long running time of the device, the defect occurrence rate is low, it is unable to obtain complete defect data, and the defect data has a random truncation feature. The maximum likelihood estimation method is used, and the distributed parameter estimation of protection devices is realized based on Weibull distribution model with two parameters. Based on the assumption that the power module, CPU module, AC sampling module and LCD module of the protection device have independent distribution characteristics, it builds joint distribution model, which realizes the parameter estimation of each module and the overall defect probability distribution model. The proposed method can effectively guide the device defect distribution analysis and the device maintenance.
Defects of protective device seriously affect its operation reliability. Device defect distribution is an important basis for evaluating device reliability. Due to the long running time of the device, the defect occurrence rate is low, it is unable to obtain complete defect data, and the defect data has a random truncation feature. The maximum likelihood estimation method is used, and the distributed parameter estimation of protection devices is realized based on Weibull distribution model with two parameters. Based on the assumption that the power module, CPU module, AC sampling module and LCD module of the protection device have independent distribution characteristics, it builds joint distribution model, which realizes the parameter estimation of each module and the overall defect probability distribution model. The proposed method can effectively guide the device defect distribution analysis and the device maintenance.
引文
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[2]张烈,王德林,刘亚东,等.国家电网220 kV及以上交流保护十年运行分析[J].电网技术,2017,41(5):1654-1659.ZHANG Lie,WANG Delin,LIU Yadong,et al.Analysis on protective relaying and its operation conditions in220 kV and above AC system of SGCC in past ten years[J].Power System Technology,2017,41(5):1654-1659.
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[17]师元康,姜振超,赵书涛.基于内部温度的继电保护装置时变失效率研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2016,44(4):123-128.SHI Yuankang,JIANG Zhenchao,ZHAO Shutao.Research on time-varying failure rate of protection devices based on internal temperature[J].Power System Protection and Control,2016,44(4):123-128.
[18]赵晓明,余志慧,张雪松.考虑隶属度可变的继电保护变权模糊综合状态评价方法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(15):22-29.ZHAO Xiaoming,YU Zhihui,ZHANG Xuesong.Fuzzy comprehensive state evaluation method of variable weight of relay protection based on variable membership degree[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(15):22-29.
[19]BO Z Q,LIN X N,WANG Q P,et al.Developments of power system protection and control[J].Protection and Control of Modern Power Systems,2016,1(1):1-8.DOI:10.1186/s41601-016-0012-2.
[20]段嘉珺,应黎明,罗先成,等.基于诱导有序加权证据推理方法的不完全信息下继电保护系统健康状态评价[J].电力系统保护与控制,2018,46(6):106-112.DUAN Jiajun,YING Liming,LUO Xiancheng,et al.Health condition assessment for relay protection system based on the induced ordered weighted evidential reasoning method under incomplete information[J].Power System Protection and Control,2018,46(6):106-112.
[21]何青,李国庆,王立健,等.汽轮发电机功率-负荷不平衡保护仿真分析[J].热力发电,2018,47(11):102-108.HE Qing,LI Guoqing,WANG Lijian,et al.Simulation of power-load unbalanced protection for turbo-generator[J].Thermal Power Generation,2018,47(11):102-108.
[2]张烈,王德林,刘亚东,等.国家电网220 kV及以上交流保护十年运行分析[J].电网技术,2017,41(5):1654-1659.ZHANG Lie,WANG Delin,LIU Yadong,et al.Analysis on protective relaying and its operation conditions in220 kV and above AC system of SGCC in past ten years[J].Power System Technology,2017,41(5):1654-1659.
[3]戴志辉,王增平,焦彦军,等.基于缺陷分析的保护装置可靠性评价研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2013,41(12):54-59.DAI Zhihui,WANG Zengping,JIAO Yanjun,et al.Study on the reliability evaluation of protection devices based on defects analysis[J].Power System Protection and Control,2013,41(12):54-59.
[4]王同文,谢民,孙月琴,等.智能变电站继电保护系统可靠性分析[J].电力系统保护与控制,2015,43(6):58-66.WANG Tongwen,XIE Min,SUN Yueqin,et al.Analysis of reliability for relay protection systems in smart substation[J].Power System Protection and Control,2015,43(6):58-66.
[5]徐岩,白静,戴志辉.一种基于威布尔分布的继电保护装置可靠性分析的新方法[J].华北电力大学学报(自然科学版),2012,39(4):15-19.XU Yan,BAI Jing,DAI Zhihui.A new method for protective relay reliability analysis based on Weibull distribution[J].Journal of North China Electric Power University(Natural Science Edition),2012,39(4):15-19.
[6]LING J,PAN J.A new method for selection of population distribution and parameter estimation[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,1998,60:247-255.
[7]赵宇,杨军,马小兵.可靠性数据分析教程[M].北京:北京航空航天大学出版社,2009.
[8]戴志辉,王增平.继电保护可靠性研究综述[J].电力系统保护与控制,2010,38(15):160-167.DAI Zhihui,WANG Zengping.Overview of research on protection reliability[J].Power System Protection and Control,2010,38(15):160-167.
[9]程侃.寿命分布类与可靠性数学理论[M].北京:科学出版社,1999.
[10]郭红,李波,张博.基于完全样本的两参数Weibull分布的参数估计[J].华中师范大学学报(自然科学版),2007,41(3):348-351.GUO Hong,LI Bo,ZHANG Bo.Parameter estimation of the 2-parameter Weibull distribution based on complete sample[J].Journal of Central China Normal University(Natural Science),2007,41(3):348-351.
[11]刘晓舟,李再兴.截尾情形下Weibull分布的最大似然估[J].数学理论与应用,2014,34(1):125-128.LIU Xiaozhou,LI Zaixing.Maximum likelihood estimates of the Weibull distribution under censoring samples[J].Mathematical Theory and Applications,2014,34(1):125-128.
[12]杨谋存,聂宏.三参数Weibull分布参数的极大似然估计数值解法[J].南京航空航天大学学报,2007,39(1):22-25.YANG Moucun,NIE Hong.Advanced algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of three parameter Weibull distribution[J].Journal o f Nanjing University of Aeronautics&Astronautics,2007,39(1):22-25.
[13]王睿琛,薛安成,毕天姝,等.继电保护装置时变失效率估算及其区域性差异分析[J].电力系统自动化,2012,36(5):11-15.WANG Ruichen,XUE Ancheng,BI Tianshu,et al.Timevarying failure rate estimation of relay protection devices and their regional differences analysis[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2012,36(5):11-15.
[14]史景钊,张峰,陈新昌.基于Matlab的随机截尾数据下的Weibull分布参数估计[J].河南科学,2010,28(5):584-587.SHI Jingzhao,ZHANG Feng,CHEN Xinchang.Based on Matlab and random censored data estimation of Weibull distribution parameters[J].Henan Science,2010,28(5):584-587.
[15]陈家鼎.生存分析与可靠性[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2005.
[16]叶远波,孙月琴,黄太贵,等.智能变电站继电保护二次回路在线监测与故障诊断技术[J].电力系统保护与控制,2016,44(20):148-153.YE Yuanbo,SUN Yueqin,HUANG Taigui,et al.Online state detection and fault diagnosis technology of relay protection secondary circuits in smart substation[J].Power System Protection and Control,2016,44(20):148-153.
[17]师元康,姜振超,赵书涛.基于内部温度的继电保护装置时变失效率研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2016,44(4):123-128.SHI Yuankang,JIANG Zhenchao,ZHAO Shutao.Research on time-varying failure rate of protection devices based on internal temperature[J].Power System Protection and Control,2016,44(4):123-128.
[18]赵晓明,余志慧,张雪松.考虑隶属度可变的继电保护变权模糊综合状态评价方法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(15):22-29.ZHAO Xiaoming,YU Zhihui,ZHANG Xuesong.Fuzzy comprehensive state evaluation method of variable weight of relay protection based on variable membership degree[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(15):22-29.
[19]BO Z Q,LIN X N,WANG Q P,et al.Developments of power system protection and control[J].Protection and Control of Modern Power Systems,2016,1(1):1-8.DOI:10.1186/s41601-016-0012-2.
[20]段嘉珺,应黎明,罗先成,等.基于诱导有序加权证据推理方法的不完全信息下继电保护系统健康状态评价[J].电力系统保护与控制,2018,46(6):106-112.DUAN Jiajun,YING Liming,LUO Xiancheng,et al.Health condition assessment for relay protection system based on the induced ordered weighted evidential reasoning method under incomplete information[J].Power System Protection and Control,2018,46(6):106-112.
[21]何青,李国庆,王立健,等.汽轮发电机功率-负荷不平衡保护仿真分析[J].热力发电,2018,47(11):102-108.HE Qing,LI Guoqing,WANG Lijian,et al.Simulation of power-load unbalanced protection for turbo-generator[J].Thermal Power Generation,2018,47(11):102-108.