基于ARMA模型的水环境承载力超载预警研究
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摘要
基于自回归滑动平均(auto regressive moving average,ARMA)模型建立了水环境承载力超载预警模型,应用2001—2014年的全国水环境数据,对2015—2017年的水环境承载力超载状态进行了预警研究。结果表明:2016年水环境承载力超载状态综合指数为1. 39,可能出现警情,主要是由于水环境容量承载率超载造成的,建议采取增加污水治理设备数、减少COD和氨氮排放量等措施以预防警情的发生。
Based on ARMA( auto regressive moving average) model,an overload warning model of water environment carrying capacity was developed. By using the national water environment data from 2001 to 2014,the overload status of water environment carrying capacity from 2015 to 2017 was studied. The results showed that the comprehensive index of overload state of water environmental carrying capacity was 1. 39 in 2016,which may cause alarm. It is suggested that measures such as increasing the number of sewage treatment equipment,reducing COD and ammonia nitrogen emissions should be taken to prevent the occurrence of alarm.
Based on ARMA( auto regressive moving average) model,an overload warning model of water environment carrying capacity was developed. By using the national water environment data from 2001 to 2014,the overload status of water environment carrying capacity from 2015 to 2017 was studied. The results showed that the comprehensive index of overload state of water environmental carrying capacity was 1. 39 in 2016,which may cause alarm. It is suggested that measures such as increasing the number of sewage treatment equipment,reducing COD and ammonia nitrogen emissions should be taken to prevent the occurrence of alarm.
引文
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[19]AKAIKE H. A new look at the statistical model identification[J]. Automatic Control IEEE Transactions,1974,19(6):716-723.
[20]SCHWARZ G. Estimating the dimension of a model[J].Annals of Statistics,1978,6(2):15-18.
[21]张凌翔. STAR模型的滞后阶数选择与稳健性研究[J].统计研究,2014,31(6):107-112.(ZHANG Lingxiang.Selection of the lag order of star model and its robustness analysis[J]. Statistical Research,2014,31(6):107-112.(in Chinese))
[2]崔凤军.论环境质量与环境承载力[J].山东农业大学学报,1995,26(1):71-77.(CUI Fengjun. On the environmental quality and environmental bearing capacity[J]. Journal of Shandong Agricultural University,1995,26(1):71-77.(in Chinese))
[3]沈珍瑶,祝莹欣,贾超,等.基于动态模拟递推算法和向量模法的水环境承载力计算方法[J].水资源保护,2015,31(6):32-39.(SHEN Zhenyao,ZHU Yingxin,JIA Chao,et al. Calculation method of water environment carrying capacity based on dynamic simulation-recursion algorithm and vector norm method[J]. Water Resources Protection,2015,31(6):32-39.(in Chinese))
[4]JANA M. A decision support system for emergency response to groundwater resource pollution in an urban area(Ljubljana,Slovenia)[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences,2015,73(7):1-12.
[5] PINTR G G. The danube accident emergency warning system[J]. Water Science&Technology,1999,40(10):27-33.
[6] RAHMAN M M,GOEL N K,ARYA D S. Study of early flood warning dissemination system in Bangladesh[J].Journal of Flood Risk Management,2013,6(4):290-301.
[7]文俊.区域水资源可持续利用预警系统研究[D].南京:河海大学,2006.
[8]秦成.水资源危机预警模型[J].水资源保护,2012,28(5):71-74.(QIN Cheng. Water resources crisis forewarning model[J]. Water Resources Protection,2012,28(5):71-74.(in Chinese))
[9]徐绪堪,赵毅,成春阳.西安市水资源可持续利用预警分级[J].水资源保护,2017,33(5):25-30.(XU Xukan,ZHAO Yi,CHENG Chunyang. Early warning grading of sustainable utilization of water resources in Xi’an City[J]. Water Resources Protection,2017,33(5):25-30.(in Chinese))
[10]赵卫,刘景双,孔凡娥.辽河流域水环境承载力的仿真模拟[J].中国科学院研究生院学报,2008,25(6):738-747.(ZHAO Wei,LIU Jingshuang,KONG Fan’e.Simulation of water environmental carrying capacity in Liaohe watershed[J]. Journal of the Graduate School of the Chinese Acad of Sciences,2008,25(6):738-747.(in Chinese))
[11]朱杰,祝义平,曾秀莉.沱江流域成都段水环境系统预警研究[J].安全与环境学报,2011,11(4):126-129.(ZHU Jie,ZHU Yiping,ZENG Xiuli. Warning of water environmental system of Chengdu section of Tuojiang River Basin[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment,2011,11(4):126-129.(in Chinese))
[12]田威,邱利,李一平.基于EFDC模型的感潮江段溢油事故风险预测[J].水资源保护,2015,31(6):98-102.(TIAN Wei,QIU Li,LI Yiping. Prediction of oil spill risk on tide sect of Yangtze River based on EFDC model[J].Water Resources Protection,2015,31(6):98-102.(in Chinese))
[13]左锐,石榕涛,王膑,等.地下水型水源地水质安全预警技术体系研究[J].环境科学研究,2018,31(3):409-418.(ZUO Rui,SHI Rongtao,WANG Bin,et al.Technological system of early warning for groundwater quality in a groundwater source area[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences,2018,31(3):409-418.(in Chinese))
[14]黄继鸿,雷战波,凌超.经济预警方法研究综述[J].系统工程,2003,21(2):64-70.(HUANG Jihong,LEI Zhanbo,LING Chao. A survey for early warning system of economics[J]. Systems Engineering,2003,21(2):64-70.(in Chinese))
[15]李俊青.水果市场价格预测与波动预警研究[D].武汉:华中农业大学,2015.
[16]梁勇.中国石油进口价格风险预警研究[D].成都:西南石油大学,2010.
[17]郇滢.基于监测数据分析的黄河管桥预警及可靠性计算[D].北京:北京交通大学,2016.
[18]韩瑞玲,佟连军,朱绍华,等.基于ARMA模型的沈阳经济区经济与环境协调发展研究[J].地理科学,2014,34(1):32-39.(HAN Ruiling,TONG Lianjun,ZHU Shaohua,et al. The coordinated development of economy and environment based on ARMA model in Shenyang economic zone[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2014,34(1):32-39.(in Chinese))
[19]AKAIKE H. A new look at the statistical model identification[J]. Automatic Control IEEE Transactions,1974,19(6):716-723.
[20]SCHWARZ G. Estimating the dimension of a model[J].Annals of Statistics,1978,6(2):15-18.
[21]张凌翔. STAR模型的滞后阶数选择与稳健性研究[J].统计研究,2014,31(6):107-112.(ZHANG Lingxiang.Selection of the lag order of star model and its robustness analysis[J]. Statistical Research,2014,31(6):107-112.(in Chinese))