西北5省耕地集约利用与农业碳排放时空耦合关系研究
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摘要
该文以西北5省为研究区域,通过构建耕地集约利用与农业碳排放指标体系,利用耦合协调模型、ArcGIS空间分析方法,分析2000-2015年西北5省耕地集约利用与农业碳排放水平及其耦合协调发展类型。结果表明:(1)2000-2015年耕地集约利用与农业碳排放总体水平分别呈现上升和下降趋势,甘肃、新疆耕地集约利用水平上升最快,其他省份波动上升,青海和新疆农业碳排放水平下降最多,其他省份匀速波动下降;(2)耦合协调发展度都呈现出先上升,后下降的趋势,基期与末期变化不大,协调状态变化过程为由低转高再转低;(3)耦合协调发展类型由农业碳排放优先型转变为耕地集约利用优先型,耕地集约利用与农业碳排放进入脱钩发展阶段。最后探讨了西北5省农业碳排放与耕地集约利用互动发展的关系,为系统融合提供科学参考。
By setting up the index system of intensive use of arable land and the agricultural carbon emission and using the coupling coordination model and ArcGIS spatial analysis method,the intensive and agricultural carbon emission levels and their coupling coordinated development types of five provinces in Northwestern China were investigated and analyzed.The results showed that over the period from 2000 to 2015,the intensive uses of arable land were increasing while the overall level of agricultural carbon decreasing,the intensive uses of cultivated land in provinces of Gansu and Xinjiang increased the fastest while in other provinces increased in fluctuation,and the level of agricultural carbon in Qinghai and Xinjiang decreased the most while in other provinces,decreased in a fluctuating status.The coupling and development degree of the five provinces presented a trend of rising first and then falling;the base period and the end phase had mild changes,and the coordination process varied from low to high and turning downward at the end.The type of coupled and coordinated development had sifted from agricultural carbon priority type into the type of intensive use of arable land priority,and intensive use of agricultural land and agricultural carbon emissions had come to the decoupling development stage.To conclude,the interactivity of agricultural carbon emission and the intensive development of cultivated land intensive use in the five provinces was discussed.
By setting up the index system of intensive use of arable land and the agricultural carbon emission and using the coupling coordination model and ArcGIS spatial analysis method,the intensive and agricultural carbon emission levels and their coupling coordinated development types of five provinces in Northwestern China were investigated and analyzed.The results showed that over the period from 2000 to 2015,the intensive uses of arable land were increasing while the overall level of agricultural carbon decreasing,the intensive uses of cultivated land in provinces of Gansu and Xinjiang increased the fastest while in other provinces increased in fluctuation,and the level of agricultural carbon in Qinghai and Xinjiang decreased the most while in other provinces,decreased in a fluctuating status.The coupling and development degree of the five provinces presented a trend of rising first and then falling;the base period and the end phase had mild changes,and the coordination process varied from low to high and turning downward at the end.The type of coupled and coordinated development had sifted from agricultural carbon priority type into the type of intensive use of arable land priority,and intensive use of agricultural land and agricultural carbon emissions had come to the decoupling development stage.To conclude,the interactivity of agricultural carbon emission and the intensive development of cultivated land intensive use in the five provinces was discussed.
引文
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[14]周嘉,杨琳,董美娜,等.基于土地利用的哈尔滨市2004-2012年碳排放强度变化分析[J].地理科学,2015,35(3):322-327.Zhou Jia,Yang Lin,Dong Meina,et al.Carbon emissions intensity change analysis based on land use in Harbin City from 2004 to 2012[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2015,35(3):322-327.
[15]张俊峰,张安录,董捷.土地集约利用与土地利用碳排放的关系研究:以武汉城市圈为例[J].农业现代化研究,2013,34(6):717-721.Zhang Junfeng,Zhang Anlu,Dong Jie.Study on relationship of intensive land use and carbon emission:a case study of Wuhan urban agglomeration[J].Research of Agricultural Modernization,2013,34(6):717-721.
[16]汪晗,吴静兰,张安录,等.土地利用强度碳排放效应分析:以广西南宁为例[J].生态经济,2016,32(9):42-46,99.Wang Han,Wu Jinglan,Zhang Anlu,et al.Analysis of the effects of land use intensity on carbon emissions:a case study of Nanning City,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region[J].Ecological Economy,2016,32(9):42-46,99.
[17]Houghton R A.Carbon emissions from land use and landcover change[J].Biogeosciences,2012,9(1):5125-5142.
[18]Novaes RM,Pazianotto RA.Estimating 20-year land-use change and derived CO2emissions associated with crops,pasture and forestry in Brazil and each of its 27 states[J].Global Change Biology,2017,4(2):1-13.
[19]Tubiello F N,Salvatore M,Cóndor Golec R D,et al.Agriculture,Forestry and Other Land Use Emissions by Sources and Removals by Sinks:1990-2011 Analysis[R].ESS Working Paper No.2,2014.
[20]赵荣钦,秦明周.中国沿海地区农田生态系统部分碳源/汇时空差异[J].生态与农村环境学报,2007,23(2):1-6,11.Zhao Rongqin,Qin Mingzhou.Temporospatial varition of partial carbon source/sink of fanmland ecosystem in coastal China[J].Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment,2007,23(2):1-6,11.
[21]倪超,杨胜天,罗娅,等.基于循环经济的黑龙江省耕地利用集约度时空差异[J].地理研究,2015,34(2):341-350.Ni Chao,Yang Shengtian,Luo Ya,et al.The spatial-temporal difference analysis of cultivated land use intensity in Heilongjiang Province based on circular economy[J].Geographical Research,2015,34(2):341-350.
[22]王国刚,刘彦随,陈秧分.中国省域耕地集约利用态势与驱动力分析[J].地理学报,2014,69(7):907-915.Wang Guogang,Liu Yansui,Chen Yangfen.Dynamic trends and driving forces of land-use intensification in the cultivated land of China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(7):907-915.
[2]Houghton R A,Hobbie J E,Mclillo J M,et al.Changes in the carbon content of terrestrial biota and soils between1860 and 1980:a net release of CO2to the atmosphere[J].Ecological Monographic,1983,53(3):235-262.
[3]张苗,甘臣林,陈银蓉.基于SBM模型的土地集约利用碳排放效率分析与低碳优化[J].中国土地科学,2016,30(3):37-45.Zhang Miao,Gan Chenlin,Chen Yinrong.Carbon emission efficiency analysis and low carbon optimization for urban land intensive use based on SBM model[J].China Land Science,2016,30(3):37-45.
[4]黎孔清,陈银蓉,陈家荣.基于ANP的城市土地低碳集约利用评价模型研究:以南京市为例[J].经济地理,2013,33(2):156-161.Li Kongqing,Chen Yinrong,Chen Jiarong.An evaluation model for the low-carbon and intensive urban land use using analytic network process[J].Economic Geography,2013,33(2):156-161.
[5]余光英,员开奇.湖南省土地利用碳排放动态效率研究:基于Malmquist指数模型[J].环境科学与技术,2015,38(2):189-194.Yu Guangying,Yuan Kaiqi.Dynamic efficiency of land use carbon emissions in Hunan:based on Malmquist index model[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2015,38(2):189-194.
[6]黄海.基于改进粒子群算法的低碳型土地利用结构优化:以重庆市为例[J].土壤通报,2014,45(2):303-306.Huang Hai.Optimization of low-carbon laud use structure based on improved particle swarm optimization algorithm:a case study in Chongqing municipality[J].Chinese Journal of Soil Science,2014,45(2):303-306.
[7]梁珍玮,李淑杰,马晓葳,等.低碳经济视角下长春市城市土地集约利用评价研究[J].东北师大学报:自然科学版,2016,48(3):156-161.Liang Zhenwei,Li Shujie,Ma Xiaowei,et al.Study on evaluation of intensive use of urban land in Changchun City based on low-carbon idea[J].Journal of Northeast Normal University:Natural Science Edition,2016,48(3):156-161.
[8]游和远,吴次芳.土地利用的碳排放效率及其低碳优化:基于能源消耗的视角[J].自然资源学报,2010,25(11):1875-1886.You Heyuan,Wu Cifang.Carbon emission efficiency and low carbon optimization of land use based on the perspective of energy consumption[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2010,25(11):1875-1886.
[9]赵荣钦,黄贤金,揣小伟,等.中国土地利用碳排放的研究误区和未来趋向[J].中国土地科学,2016,30(12):83-92.Zhao Rongqin,Huang Xianjin,Chuai Xiaowei.Misunderstandings and future trends of researches on land use carbon emissions in China[J].China Land Science,2016,30(12):83-92.
[10]孙赫,梁红梅,常学礼,等.中国土地利用碳排放及其空间关联[J].经济地理,2015,35(3):154-162.Sun He,Liang Hongmei,Chang Xueli,et al.Land use patterns on carbon emission and spatial association in China[J].Economic Geography,2015,35(3):154-162.
[11]张梅,赖力,黄贤金,等.中国区域土地利用类型转变的碳排放强度研究[J].资源科学,2013,35(4):792-799.Zhang Mei,Lai Li,Huang Xianjin,et al.The carbon emission intensity of land use conversion in different regions of China[J].Resources Science,2013,35(4):792-799.
[12]彭文甫,周介铭,徐新良,等.基于土地利用变化的四川省碳排放与碳足迹效应及时空格局[J].生态学报,2016,36(22):7244-7259.Peng Wenfu,Zhou Jieming,Xu Xinliang,et al.Effect of land use changes on the temporal and spatial patterns of carbon emissions and carbon footprints in Sichuan Province of western China,from 1990 to 2010[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2016,36(22):7244-7259.
[13]唐洪松,马惠兰,苏洋,等.新疆不同土地利用类型的碳排放与碳吸收[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(3):486-492.Tang Hongsong,Ma Huilan,Su Yang,et al.Carbon emissions and carbon absorptions of different land use types in Xinjiang[J].Arid Zone Research,2016,33(3):486-492.
[14]周嘉,杨琳,董美娜,等.基于土地利用的哈尔滨市2004-2012年碳排放强度变化分析[J].地理科学,2015,35(3):322-327.Zhou Jia,Yang Lin,Dong Meina,et al.Carbon emissions intensity change analysis based on land use in Harbin City from 2004 to 2012[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2015,35(3):322-327.
[15]张俊峰,张安录,董捷.土地集约利用与土地利用碳排放的关系研究:以武汉城市圈为例[J].农业现代化研究,2013,34(6):717-721.Zhang Junfeng,Zhang Anlu,Dong Jie.Study on relationship of intensive land use and carbon emission:a case study of Wuhan urban agglomeration[J].Research of Agricultural Modernization,2013,34(6):717-721.
[16]汪晗,吴静兰,张安录,等.土地利用强度碳排放效应分析:以广西南宁为例[J].生态经济,2016,32(9):42-46,99.Wang Han,Wu Jinglan,Zhang Anlu,et al.Analysis of the effects of land use intensity on carbon emissions:a case study of Nanning City,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region[J].Ecological Economy,2016,32(9):42-46,99.
[17]Houghton R A.Carbon emissions from land use and landcover change[J].Biogeosciences,2012,9(1):5125-5142.
[18]Novaes RM,Pazianotto RA.Estimating 20-year land-use change and derived CO2emissions associated with crops,pasture and forestry in Brazil and each of its 27 states[J].Global Change Biology,2017,4(2):1-13.
[19]Tubiello F N,Salvatore M,Cóndor Golec R D,et al.Agriculture,Forestry and Other Land Use Emissions by Sources and Removals by Sinks:1990-2011 Analysis[R].ESS Working Paper No.2,2014.
[20]赵荣钦,秦明周.中国沿海地区农田生态系统部分碳源/汇时空差异[J].生态与农村环境学报,2007,23(2):1-6,11.Zhao Rongqin,Qin Mingzhou.Temporospatial varition of partial carbon source/sink of fanmland ecosystem in coastal China[J].Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment,2007,23(2):1-6,11.
[21]倪超,杨胜天,罗娅,等.基于循环经济的黑龙江省耕地利用集约度时空差异[J].地理研究,2015,34(2):341-350.Ni Chao,Yang Shengtian,Luo Ya,et al.The spatial-temporal difference analysis of cultivated land use intensity in Heilongjiang Province based on circular economy[J].Geographical Research,2015,34(2):341-350.
[22]王国刚,刘彦随,陈秧分.中国省域耕地集约利用态势与驱动力分析[J].地理学报,2014,69(7):907-915.Wang Guogang,Liu Yansui,Chen Yangfen.Dynamic trends and driving forces of land-use intensification in the cultivated land of China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(7):907-915.