摘要
随着社会经济的高速发展，全球经济竞争日趋激烈，企业竞争越来越成为基于供应链的竞争。作为提升企业竞争力的重要手段，供应链管理发挥了越来越重要的作用，成为企业适应全球竞争的有效管理模式。协调运行的供应链对改善供应链系统的性能、提升供应链的竞争力具有重要的作用。因而，降低经营风险、使供应链协调运作是供应链管理的首要任务。供应链契约通过明确供应链系统参与各方的权益与责任，能有效均衡各方收益，是实现供应链协调的一种重要机制。然而，由于供应链所处环境的复杂性、动态性和不确定性，加之竞争的加剧，供应链遇到的突发事件也越来越多，其协调运作受到了巨大的影响。如何协调供应链有效地应对突发事件，降低突发事件对供应链造成的不良影响，使供应链系统获得突发事件下的最佳效益，是供应链管理者必须面对的问题，同时，也引起了国内外学者的广泛关注。
基于确定性需求和随机性需求的短生命周期产品供应链，在考虑突发事件引起供应链生产成本、市场需求等因素发生扰动的前提下，本文综合运用了供应链最优化管理理论、协调理论、契约理论、博弈论、微观经济学等理论以及现有的应急管理研究，通过定性与定量相结合的方法，对供应链进行应急协调建模分析，系统地探讨了突发事件对供应链的影响，提出了相应的应对策略。论文研究主要内容如下：
1.供应链应急协调研究概述。分别从供应链协调与供应链契约、突发事件与应急管理、供应链应急协调管理研究三个方面进行了概述，并对国内与国外供应链应急协调研究现状进行了述评。
2.基于确定性需求考虑博弈竞争的供应链应急协调研究。构建了四种供应链应急协调模型：（1）针对一个供应商和一个零售商组成的基于Stackelberg博弈的供应链，构建了非线性需求函数下，需求和零售商购买成本同时扰动的协调模型；（2）针对一个供应商和两个基于Bertrand博弈竞争零售商组成的供应链，构建了需求、生产成本与价格敏感系数同时扰动的协调模型；（3）针对一个供应商和两个基于Bertrand博弈竞争零售商组成的供应链，构建了需求、零售商购买成本及产品替代系数同时扰动的协调模型；（4）针对一个供应商和多个基于Cournot博弈竞争零售商组成的供应链，构建了需求与订货数量影响因子同时扰动的协调模型。
首先，建立稳定环境下的供应链协调模型；其次，从集权式供应链系统出发，建立了多因素同时扰动时的应急协调模型，针对多因素同时扰动的不同程度进行分析，提出了最优应对策略；再次，对分权式供应链的应急协调问题进行研究，提出了供应商面对扰动时应采取的最优应急协调机制。
3.基于确定性需求考虑时间约束的供应链应急协调研究。针对鲜活农产品一类典型的短生命周期产品，构建了三种供应链应急协调模型：（1）针对由一个供应商和一个零售商组成的基于幂函数需求的供应链，构建了市场需求、零售商订货成本和产品运输时间同时扰动的协调模型；（2）针对基于幂函数需求的多零售商二级供应链，构建了市场需求、零售商订货成本和产品运输时间同时扰动的协调模型；（3）针对基于指数函数需求的多零售商二级供应链，构建了需求规模、价格敏感系数与产品运输时间同时扰动的协调模型。
首先，建立稳定环境下的刻画鲜活农产品耗损和新鲜度特征的供应链协调模型；其次，建立了集权式决策模式下多因素同时扰动时的应急协调模型，提出了多因素同时扰动的最优应对策略；再次，对多因素同时扰动下的分权式供应链系统的协调问题进行研究，提出了分权式供应链应对多因素同时扰动的协调策略。
4.基于随机性需求考虑柔性契约的供应链应急协调研究。构建了三种供应链应急协调模型：（1）针对二级供应链，构建了随机需求分布函数和生产成本同时扰动的协调模型；（2）针对二级供应链，考虑乘积形式的需求函数，构建了需求随机因子分布函数扰动的协调模型；（3）针对三级供应链，构建了随机需求分布函数扰动的协调模型。
首先，通过引入期权契约、回购契约与收益共享契约的联合契约等柔性契约，建立稳定环境下的供应链协调模型；其次，建立了因素扰动时的应急协调模型，分析了突发事件对供应链的影响；再次，通过对基准情形下供应链契约参数进行修改，提出了供应链系统应对因素扰动时的协调策略。
5.基于随机性需求考虑信息结构的供应链应急协调研究。构建了三种不对称信息结构供应链应急决策模型：（1）针对供应商生产成本信息不对称的二级供应链，构建了市场需求分布函数扰动的决策模型；（2）针对零售商成本信息不对称下的二级闭环供应链，构建了随机需求分布函数与生产成本同时扰动的协调模型；（3）针对需求信息不对称信息下的二级闭环供应链，构建了随机需求分布函数与生产成本同时扰动的协调模型。
首先，建立基准情形下的供应链决策模型；其次，建立了单因素或双因素扰动时的应急决策模型，分析了突发事件对不对称信息供应链的影响；再次，通过设计新的供应链契约，提出了供应链系统应对因素扰动时的最优应对策略。
6.基于随机性需求考虑协作模式的供应链应急协调研究。针对鲜活农产品一类典型的短生命周期产品，构建了三种供应链应急协调模型：（1）针对VMI协作模式供应链，采用乘积形式的幂函数需求函数，构建了需求分布函数扰动的协调模型；（2）针对VMI协作模式供应链，采用乘积形式的指数需求函数，构建了需求分布函数与生产成本同时扰动的协调模型；（3）针对三级协作模式供应链，采用乘积形式的幂函数需求函数，构建了需求扰动因子分布函数扰动的协调模型。
首先，建立稳定环境下的刻画鲜活农产品耗损和新鲜度特征的供应链协调模型；其次，建立了单因素或双因素扰动时的应急协调模型，分析了因素扰动下供应链所受到的影响；再次，通过重新设计供应链契约，提出了供应链系统应对突发事件的协调策略。
With the rapid development of the society and economic, the global economiccompetition becomes more severity, and the company competition becomes thecompetition based on supply chains gradually. As a major means of elevatingcompetitiveness of the enterprise, the supply chain management gives an important playto it and becomes an effective management model to adapt to the global competition.Supply chain’s coordination operation has a great significance to improve the systemperformance and competitiveness of the supply chain. Thus, it is the important task forsupply chain to make itself to reduce management risk and operate coordinately. Inaddition, supply chain contract can balance the gains to every part by defining the rightsand the responsibilities of the participants in the supply chain, so it is an importantmechanism to realize coordination of the supply chain. However, due to the complex,dynamic and uncertain circumstances of the supply chain, and the intensive competitionbesides this, the disruptions that the supply chain confronts with become much morethan before, and this makes great influence to the supply chain’s operation andcoordination. Therefore, it is the question that the supply chain managers must face tohow to coordinate the supply chain to respond the disruptions effectively so as to reducethe influence the supply chain suffered by disruptions and try to get an optimum gain. Inthe meantime, this problem has drawn wide attention from scholars in domestic andoverseas.
Based on definite demand and stochastic demand in the supply chain, and thepresupposition consideration of factors’ disruptions such as production cost, marketdemand et al. caused by unexpected events, this dissertation uses the theories of supplychain optimization management, coordination theory, contract theory, game theory andmicrocosmic economics and existed disruption management theory to establish andanalysize the supply chain disruption management models quantitatively andanalytically. In addition, the thesis explores the disruption’s influences to the supplychain systematically and puts forward relevant response policies. The main contents ofthis dissertation were as followed:
1. Review of supply chain disruption management research. During this chapter,the review on supply chain coordination and contract theory, unexpected events and disruption management theory and the study of supply chain disruption management arecarried on. Then, a commentary about present situation of the researches at home andabroad in supply chain disruption management is given.
2. Study on disruption management of the supply chains based on definite demandunder game and competition consideration. During this chapter, four kinds of supplychain disruption management models are established:（1）Focusing on a supply chainconsists of one supplier and one retailer based on Stackelberg game in which thesupplier being a leader, a coordinated model is set up based on demand and retailer’purchase cost disruption simultaneously under nonlinear demand function（;2）Focusingon a supply chain consists of one supplier and two competitive retailers based onBertrand game, a coordination model is set up based on demand, production cost andprice-sensitive coefficient disruption simultaneously;（3）Focusing on a supply chainconsists of one supplier and two competitive retailers based on Bertrand game, acoordination model is set up based on production cost, demand and productsubstitutability coefficient disruption simultaneously;（4）Focusing on a supply chainconsists of one supplier and multi competitive retailers based on Cournot game, acoordinated model is set up based on demand and product quantity order influencefactor disruption simultaneously.
Firstly, a supply chain coordinated model is set up in steady environment; then, inthe centralized supply chain, a supply chain with multi factors’ disruptionsimultaneously is set up and an optimum countermeasure is summed up from theanalysis according to the deferent disruption degree of the combined disruptions ofmulti factors. Finally, a coordinated question under the decentralized supply chainsystem is researched, and the optimum coordination mechanismes that the suppliershould adopt are proposed.
3. Study on disruption management of supply chains based on definite demandunder time constraints consideration. During this chapter, three kinds of supply chaindisruption management models are established by focusing on a typical kind ofshort-life cycle product i.e. fresh agricultural products:（1）Focusing on a supply chainconsists of one supplier and one retailer based on power demand function, a coordinatedmodel is set up based on market demand, retailer’s order cost and product transport timedisruption simultaneously;（2）Focusing on a two-level supply chain consists of onesupplier and multi retailers based on power function demand, a coordinated model is set up based on market demand, retailer’s order cost and product transport time disruptionsimultaneously;（3）Focusing on a two-level supply chain consists of one supplier andmulti retailers based on exponential demand function, a coordinated model is set upbased on market demand, price-sensitive coefficient and product transport timedisruption simultaneously.
Firstly, a supply chain coordinated model is set up with the consideration ofproduct loss and freshness feature in steady environment; then, in the centralized supplychain, a supply chain with multi factors’ disruption simultaneously is set up and anoptimum countermeasure is summed up from the analysis according to the deferentdisruption degree of the combined disruptions of multi factors. Finally, a coordinatedquestion under the decentralized supply chain system is researched, and an optimumcoordination mechanism is proposed.
4. Study on disruption management of supply chains based on stochastic demandunder flexible contracts consideration. During this chapter, three kinds of supply chaindisruption management models are established:（1） Focusing on a two-level supplychain, a coordinated model is set up based on stochastic demand distribution functionand production cost disruption simultaneously;（2）Focusing on a two-level supplychain, a coordinated model is set up based on stochastic perturbation factor distributionfunction;（3）Focusing on a three-level supply chain, a coordinated model is set upbased on stochastic demand distribution function disruption.
Firstly, by drawing into some flexible contracts such as option contract or unitedcontract consists of buy back contract and revenue sharing contract, a supply chaincoordinated model is set up in steady environment; then, a supply chain disruptionmanagement model with factors disruption is set up and an optimum countermeasure isproposed. The influence that the supply chain suffered caused by unexpected events isanalyzed. Finally, a coordination strategy is proposed to respond factors disruptions byadjusting supply chain contract’ parameter.
5. Study on disruption management of supply chains based on stochastic demandunder information construction consideration. During this chapter, three kinds of supplychain disruption management models with asymmetric information are established:（1）Focusing on a two-level supply chain with asymmetric information of the supplier’sproduction cost, a decision model is set up based on demand distribution function of themarket;（2） Focusing on a closed-loop two-level supply chain with asymmetric information of the retailer’s cost, a coordinated model is set up based on stochasticdemand distribution function and production cost disruption simultaneously;（3）Focusing on a two-level closed-loop supply chain with asymmetric information of themarket demand, a coordinated model is set up based on stochastic demand distributionfunction and production cost disruption simultaneously.
Firstly, a supply chain decision model is set up under standard situation; then, asupply chain decision management model with the disruption of a single factor ordouble factors is set up and an optimum countermeasure is proposed. The influence thatthe supply chain suffered caused by unexpected events is analyzed. Finally, an optimaldecision strategy is proposed to respond factors disruptions by designing a new contractof the supply chain under standard situation.
6. Study on disruption management of supply chains based on stochastic demandunder the cooperative model consideration. During this chapter, three kinds of supplychain disruption management models are established by focusing on a typical kind ofshort-life cycle product i.e. fresh agricultural products:（1）Focusing on a two-levelVMI cooperative model supply chain based on power demand function with arithmeticproduct form, a coordinated model is set up based on with stochastic demanddistribution function disruption;（2）Focusing on a two-level VMI cooperative modelsupply chain based on exponential demand function with arithmetic product form, acoordinated model is set up based on stochastic demand distribution function andproduction cost disruption simultaneously;（3）Focusing on a three-level cooperativemodel supply chain based on power demand function with arithmetic product form, acoordinated model is set up with perturbation factor distribution function disruption.
Firstly, a supply chain coordinated model is set up with the consideration ofproduct loss and freshness feature in steady environment. Then, a supply chaindisruption management model with the disruption of a single factor or double factors isset up the influence that the supply chain suffered caused by unexpected events isanalyzed. Finally, a coordination strategy is proposed to respond factors disruption byadjusting supply chain contract’ parameter.
引文
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